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📊 | Fed and Bank of Japan Ichiren Susumu End of mitigation measures for SLR and Bank of Japan President Kuroda's remarks Part XNUMX


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Fed and Bank of Japan Ichiren Susumu End of mitigation measures for SLR and Bank of Japan President Kuroda's remarks Part XNUMX

 
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This additional easing was truly impressive in the sense that it covered the negative impact of the end of the Fed's third quantitative easing policy (QE3).
 

The Fed's scheduled completion of SLR mitigation is based on the rationale that the US Treasury market is "more stable than it was then" ... → Continue reading

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Quantitative monetary easing policy

Quantitative monetary easing policy(Ryokikin Yukanseisaku,British: Quantitative easing,QE) IsCommercial bankHeld byGovernment bondTheReserve depositIt is a policy to exchange for the government, from the perspective of the bankTime deposit(Government bonds) to the Bank of JapanOrdinary depositWill be replaced with (reserve deposit)[1].interest rateNot a reduction inCommercial bankHeld byCentral Bank OfCurrent accountBy increasing the amount of balancemonetary easingI doFinancial Policyso,Quantitative easing policy,Quantitative easingAlso called.

In normal times, if interest rates are lowered, economic stimulus effects will appear and the economy will recover, but it is serious.DeflationIf you fall intoPolicy interest rateWas not able to exert a sufficient economic stimulus effect even if it was brought to zero[2]..Therefore, the monetary policy that responds to the policy goal by increasing not only interest rates but also the amount of funds supplied is the quantitative easing policy.[2].

Bank of Japan 2001May 3から2006May 3Was carried out until.This article mainly describes Japan, but in addition to this, the United StatesFRBBy QE1 (2008August-2010June, $ 6 trillion), QE1 (November 7250-2011June, $ 6 billion), QE6000 (2012September-, $ 9 billion per month).

Since January 2013, the Bank of JapanDeflation measuresAs much as 2019 trillion yen by April 4Monetary baseEnlarged[3].

Overview

Commercial banks can provide loans in proportion to the amount of the current account balance at the Bank of Japan.Quantitative easing policy is to increase the balance of this checking deposit in the market.Money supply(Money stock) Is a policy to increase.

Bank of JapanOpen market operationsAt banks, etc.Financial institutionからGovernment bond,BillIt will supply funds by buying, increase the amount of funds circulating in the city, lower interest rates, and provide monetary easing.It is up to the private financial institution to accept or sell bonds through open market operations, and the amount requested by the financial institution does not reach the planned bid amount.Cracked billA phenomenon called is also occurring.Breaking bills in funding operations means that sufficient funds are being supplied to financial institutions.Since the BOJ's current deposits do not bear interest, financial institutions tend to divert surplus funds to market operations and loans, so it is expected that the supply of funds to the market will increase (portfolio rebalancing effect). ..

economistOf the economistJames TobinPointed out that the research on asset markets that they worked on "essentially forms the framework of quantitative easing."[4].

History

As for the growth of money supply, the year-on-year growth of M2 + CD, which is a typical index, exceeded 1980% in the latter half of the 10s, but decreased slightly from the previous year by the end of 1992. After that, the low growth of about 2-4% continued.

In the Japanese economy since the beginning of the 1990s, the rate of price increase has declined, and especially since around 1999, consumer prices have been declining continuously.DeflationBecame a problem.In order to improve this situation, a policy to increase the inflation rate was required. Until the first half of the 90s, the policy was aimed at increasing demand through fiscal policies such as an increase in public works projects and narrowing the deflation gap due to lack of demand, but since around 1999, the amount of public investment has turned to shrinking, and the situation has changed. It did not improve and did not escape from deflation.

Monetary policy is almost always interest rates (especiallyShort-term interest rate) Is the goal.However, I have targeted the money supply several times.The most famous example is the Fed's new monetary control system from the late 1970s to the early 1980s.The purpose at this time was to curb the growth of the money supply.inflationWas to eradicate.As a result, interest rates that were no longer targeted rose to 20 percent and inflation fell.

Was an advisor to the Bank of JapanJohn TaylorHas advised the adoption of quantitative easing policies since the 1990s[5].

Quantitative easing was a deliberation committee member of the monetary policy meetingNobuyuki NakaharaProposed by and first adopted in March 2001[6].

Quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan was aimed at promoting the growth of the money supply and eradicating deflation.Unlike the case of controlling inflation, this policy has a restriction that interest rates do not fall below zero, so expectations for its effectiveness were low.Furthermore, as deflation progressed where the nominal interest rate had already been induced to near zero, there was no way to lower the real interest rate, and no further measures could be taken for conventional monetary policy.

The reason why I had to implement this policy because I didn't know the action and side effects was the policy mistake of the previous year. In August 2000, the Bank of Japan lifted the zero interest rate policy because the outlook for the Japanese economy was bright.The decision was made by the Bank of Japan to regain the interest rate function, but from the fall of 8IT bubbleBusiness conditions deteriorated rapidly due to the severe recession of capital investment after the collapse.As a result, policy changes were forced as early as six months later.国会There were voices calling for responsibility for the BOJ's policy mistakes, and the situation could violate independence.Under these circumstances, quantitative easing, which represents a stronger monetary easing stance, will be implemented.

Due to the adoption of the quantitative easing policy, the current account of the Bank of Japan will be2001It was gradually raised from about 2 trillion yen around February, and the policy goal was to maintain it from 4 trillion yen to 30 trillion yen at the maximum.by this,Monetary base(Base money,High powered money) Has increased significantly, but due to the impact of the bursting of the IT bubble, investment projects have been sluggish, and most of these funds have been used.Japanese Government BondDirected to the purchase of money supply (eg money supply)M2 + CD) Continued to be sluggish.

In March 2006, the Bank of Japan lifted its quantitative easing policy, stating that the rate of increase in consumer prices exceeded 3%.[7].. at that time,Heizo TakenakaWith the Minister of Internal Affairs and CommunicationsNakagawa HidenaoThe Liberal Democratic Party's political chairman opposed the lifting of quantitative easing,Kaoru YosanoWith the support of the Minister of Economy and Finance, the Bank of Japan is said to have forced the cancellation of quantitative easing.[7].

Discussion over the effect

Lehman shockThe later global deflationary trend was in 1929.World DepressionReminds us that the fall in prices is due to sluggish growth in the money supply.Monetary quantity theoryOpinions have strengthened, especially among economists around the world.Japan's potential growth potential is actually 2% or more, and assuming a price increase rate of about 2%, the growth of the money supply needs to be at least 4-5%, and the low money supply is the monetary easing of the Bank of Japan. Was pointed out as being insufficient.On the other hand, at the Bank of Japan, the policy interest rate is sufficiently low and monetary policy is extremely easing. I had the view that.

From among economistsReserve Deposit SystemIt has been expressed that if the Bank of Japan's checking deposits are provided with funds that far exceed the required reserves required by the Bank of Japan, the money supply should increase in the end.If the Bank of Japan supplies an excessive reserve requirement, the bank will hold a large amount of interest-free funds, but if it is left as it is, it will miss profit opportunities, so this funds will be lent out, stock purchases and land It is an idea like the money multiplier theory that it should be used for investment in such things.

There are various expectations regarding the effects of the quantitative easing policy.

  1. The total amount of money in the world has increasedInflation expectationsWill increase, and it will be possible to escape from deflation
  2. Expectations that zero-level short-term interest rates will continue for a long period of time will increase, and long-term interest rates will fall, boosting the economy (time axis effect).
  3. Maintaining high levels of BOJ current deposits will prevent banks from stagnation and avoid financial system instability.

And so on[8].

Also, the portfolio rebalancing effect[9], The effect of depreciating foreign exchange, the effect of pushing up asset prices, etc.[10].

Yu HayamiThe Bank of Japan's governor said, "Zero interest rates and quantitative easing will eliminate the sense of crisis in corporate management.Structural reformIt inhibits[11].

About the quantitative easing policy implemented by the Bank of Japan from March 2001 to March 3Fumiaki ShirakawaAt a press conference, the Governor of the Bank of Japan said that it was "very effective in maintaining the stability of the financial system", but that it was "limited in effect" in terms of boosting the economy.[12]..Shirakawa says that zero interest rate policy and quantitative easingBad debtIt is said that it was very effective as a policy to support processing.[13].

Scholar's view

According to the literature of the BOJ Planning Bureau Counselor (2006)Yield curveThe depressing effect of was clearly confirmed and the time axis effect worked well,Monetary baseReinforcement (commitment) caused some risk money (portfolio rebalancing), but the effect was less than the amount committed, and it was possible to dispel financial instability for financial institutions, but aggregate The direct boost to demand and prices is limited, but rather the impact of corporate balance sheet adjustments is large.

EconomistJoseph E. Stiglitz"The only small effect of quantitative easing is that it lowers mortgage rates. This helps maintain real estate prices. Quantitative easing is probably weak, but the balance sheet effect. Brings[14].

Economists point out that "Japan's quantitative easing measures have given the right sign, but that alone has not caused high inflation."[15].

Economists point out that "the BOJ's zero interest rate policy and quantitative easing policy did not increase the money supply."[16].

EconomistKunio Okina"There is no theoretical link between quantitative easing to supply money to the market and rising prices," he said.[17].

EconomistKazuto IkeoThe economic consensus is that non-traditional monetary policy is effective in the financial crisis when the market is dysfunctional, but less effective in stimulating the economy in normal times.[18].

EconomistYoichi Takahashi"We couldn't get out of deflation because Japan's quantitative easing was incomplete."[19].

EconomistNorihisa Iwata"While leaving it as quantitative easing, the growth rate of the monetary base increased by only 5% annually in five years. With this kind of quantitative easing, money does not increase as much as necessary to break out of deflation, and it is essential to break out of deflation. No inflation expectations are born. During the period of quantitative easing, money increased by only 12%. "[20].

EconomistYasuyuki Iida"The Bank of Japan has a history of repeatedly questioning its effectiveness while implementing its own zero interest rate policy and quantitative easing policy."[21]"The zero interest rate and quantitative easing policy of 2001-2006 has reduced the deflation of -1% to 0% and the unemployment rate from the latter half of 5% to around 4%."[22].

EconomistTakuro Morinaga"The small-scale monetary easing in the form of successive input of force is nothing but the continuation of the deflationary policy."[23].

EconomistTakeshi Kataoka"In empirical studies, quantitative easing was weak but effective even in Japan, and quantitative easing stopped the aggravation of deflationary expectations and brought about higher asset prices, resulting in aggregate demand. The result is that it has boosted the recovery of[24].

Economists point out that "the BOJ's quantitative easing policy has affected production through stock price fluctuations."[25].

EconomistHideomi Tanaka"In 2004, deflationary expectations up to that point improved rapidly," he said.[26].

Goshi Kataoka said, "If the money supply progresses through quantitative easing measures, we can expect the effect of lowering the nominal interest rate by increasing liquidity in the short term.Nominal interest rateDeclineDurable consumer goodsAnd by stimulating the purchase of assetsReal incomeWill lead to an increase in prices and prices.And an increase in real income leads to an increase in demand for money, and a rise in prices reduces the real money balance, so the nominal interest rate rises in the long run.FurthermoreFisher effectNominal interest rates will also rise.In the short term, the increase in liquidity will lower the nominal interest rate, but in the long term, when the economy recovers, the nominal interest rate will rise. "[27].

EconomistYasushi Harada"If you increase money through monetary easing, prices will surely rise and nominal GDP will also increase. The claim that the economy will not improve because lending does not increase no matter how much easing is done. The effect of monetary easing is through lending. It's not just about things. Monetary easing will lower exchange rates. Exporters will revive and restructuring will stop. Consumption will increase because total wages will increase. Money will also decrease in local industries. Tax revenues will increase in the process.[28]"The purpose of monetary easing is not to raise wages by increasing employment. Of course, if monetary easing increases employment and lowers the unemployment rate, wages will eventually rise. If you raise the wage rate, it may hinder the growth of employment.[29]"I point out.

EconomistMasazumi Wakatabe"There are many opinions in the forum that the BOJ's quantitative easing policy was ineffective. Of course, the effect was completely inadequate because deflation was not over. However, it has been deflationary for such a long time, and deflation is expected. It is also the reason why the Bank of Japan has neglected appropriate policies even though it has taken root. On the contrary, it was far better than the policy of reducing the money supply.[30]"No matter how much the Bank of Japan has taken a policy that seems to be out of deflation, it has raised doubts that it is actually a deflation-tolerant regime. Specifically, it occurred during the quantitative easing period.Expected inflation rateEvidence that the rise in[31]"I point out.

Liquidity trap

Kazuhito Ikeo said, "Even among the world's experts studying monetary policy, there is a consensus that quantitative easing will not work under the constraint of zero interest rates.[32]"It's nothing more than a major exchange of money with government bonds that have almost no interest rates. It is doubtful that exchanging similar government bonds and money with almost no interest rates will have a dramatic effect.[12]"I point out.

EconomistMakoto SaitoShows a proposition such as "Under the constraint of zero interest rate, no matter how much money is supplied, prices will not rise and the quantity theory of money will not hold."[33]..On the other hand, Yoichi Takahashi says that he was able to recalculate Saito's mathematical formula without any modification and at the same time derive the opposite proposition that "if money is supplied, inflation will occur."[34].

Yoichi Takahashi said, "When the nominal interest rate is near zero, there is no room for a reduction in the nominal interest rate,Real interest rateCan be negative if the expected inflation rate rises.There is no room for a reduction in real interest rates. "[35].

Kikuo Iwata said, "If the Bank of Japan is not accountably committed to achieving the inflation target, it will not be possible to overcome deflation through quantitative easing. Quantitative easing is just one of the means for forming inflation expectations. No, "he points out.[36].

EconomistTakeo Hoshi"I think there was some effect, but it was not enough to eliminate deflation. It does not mean that quantitative easing itself does not work. Quantitative easing works on future expectations. Commitment is important because it is only effective by doing so. The BOJ's quantitative easing does not lift the quantitative easing until the inflation rate in the consumer price index is stable above zero. Despite announcing its clear commitment, it stopped quantitative easing in 2006, when it was not completely out of deflation, and lifted the zero interest rate policy in the same year. "[37].

Expected inflation rate and real interest rate

Interest-free deposits that financial institutions deposit with the Bank of Japan are called reserve requirements or reserves, and the law stipulates that deposits of a certain percentage or more of the deposits of their own financial institutions are required. It is called pig loading[38].

Kazuhito Ikeo said, "Quantitative easing theorists argue that if you increase the total amount of money, you will have more money to move. However, I will only have more money to be stored. Quantitative easing policy Then, money will be accumulated as reserve deposits of the Bank of Japan. Since the holders of reserve deposits are private financial institutions, if they do not withdraw, they will not be able to move around the market. Then, reserve deposits of 10 trillion yen Will private financial institutions increase their willingness to withdraw if the amount is increased to 30 trillion yen? No, private financial institutions will not withdraw unless lending demand increases.[39]"I point out.

Kikuo Iwata commented on the counterargument (the theory of pig loading) that "even if quantitative easing is carried out, the reserve deposits of the Bank of Japan will only increase, money will not go into the market, and consumption and capital investment will not increase." In order to do so, money does not have to increase. Lending decreased until 2002 even after the economic recovery began in 2005, because at that time companies were in a state of excess money. However, corporate capital investment increased. I financed capital investment with my own funds. Even now (2011), the lending route is not a problem because companies are in excess of savings. When the expected inflation rate rises, the circulation speed of dead money[40] Because it goes up.If that happens, lending will increase eventually.The important thing is the expectation of inflation and working on people's expectations. "[41]..Iwata points out that "although some people are worried about working on expectations in monetary policy, monetary policy basically works on expectations, and there can be no monetary policy that denies expectations."[42].

Kazuhito Ikeo said, "It is not correct to argue that increasing the balance of reserve requirements of the Bank of Japan raises inflation expectations. When short-term interest rates are zero,Monetary quantity theoryDoes not hold. "[32].

Kikuo Iwata points out that "whether or not monetary easing should be judged should be based on the expected real interest rate, not the nominal interest rate."[43].

Nobel Prize in EconomicsAward winnerPaul Krugman"If the nominal interest rate is kept constant by monetary easing, the expected inflation rate will rise and the real interest rate will fall."[44].

There is a counterargument that "quantitative easing has no way to reach the expected inflation rate."[45]..Norihisa Iwata said, "A decline in the expected real interest rate causes changes in market prices in asset markets such as government bonds, stocks, and foreign exchange. These changes in asset prices lead to consumption and real asset investment, that is, capital investment, housing investment, and exports. It will take time to increase total demand and cause changes in the real economy, such as increased total demand leading to increased production and employment. "[46].

Yoichi Takahashi said, "If quantitative easing is carried out, the expected inflation rate will increase. In Japan, there was a lag of about half a year, and the expected inflation rate increased. There are examples not only in Japan but also in each country, and each country has a central bank. As the balance sheet expands, the expected inflation rate rises. Then, if the nominal interest rate is kept constant, the real interest rate will fall. The nominal interest rate cannot be lowered below zero, but the real interest rate will be. Can be negative[47][48]"In the United States and the United Kingdom, quantitative easing has actually increased the expected inflation rate, and after a time lag, the actual inflation rate has also increased.[45]"After quantitative easing, the expected inflation rate often starts to rise by about half a year. Furthermore, even if the real interest rate falls, capital investment may not increase immediately. Lending will increase. , Further delay[38]"I point out.

AnticipationReal interest rate = Nominal interest rate - Expected inflation rate[47][48][49]

Yoichi Takahashi points out that "the decline in real interest rates is crucial to the subsequent economic trends."[45]..Iwata points out, "The more money you borrow, the more negative interest rates you get, so it's better to spend and invest with the borrowed money."[50].

There is criticism that "when inflation expectations arise, the nominal interest rate will rise (Fisher effect)"[51].

Regarding the Fisher effect, Ben Bernanke said, "Even if it is established in the long run, it does not apply when the economy is in an imbalanced state. Even if the central bank actually implements an inflation policy through monetary easing, the price level will change only slowly. However, the nominal interest rate will be revised only slowly. Therefore, the decline in real interest rates will be realized in the short term and will have the effect of raising the real economy. "[52].

Yoichi Takahashi stated, "In the Fisher equation" nominal interest rate = real interest rate + expected inflation rate ", in order for the nominal interest rate to rise by the amount of the increase in the expected inflation rate.Full employmentMust be, and the Fisher effect does not occur immediately in a deflationary situation.If cash demand is strong, even if inflation expectations arise, some funds will go to bond purchases, supporting bond prices and interest rates will not rise easily.This is supported by empirical studies showing that the Fisher effect becomes asymmetrical during economic recovery and recession. In the Great Depression of the 1930s, historical facts in the United States and Japan did not show a rise in nominal interest rates. "[51].. In addition, Takahashi points out that "the real interest rate will be negative for a while to break out of deflation, but it will not remain negative in the long run".[53].

Concerns about rising interest rates

"Bold monetary easing raises concerns about loss of fiscal discipline.Long-term interest rateKunio Okina points out that it is unlikely that long-term interest rates will skyrocket as the Bank of Japan pushes for bold monetary easing and shows a willingness to buy large amounts of long-term government bonds.[54]..Regarding the Fed's quantitative easing, he said, "It is misunderstood that the Fed is easing monetary policy with the aim of increasing the money supply by increasing reserve requirements, but since QE2, the Fed has consistently lowered long-term interest rates. I bought a long-term bond as[55].

Yoichi Takahashi said, "It is natural that the nominal interest rate will fall because the Bank of Japan is buying a large amount of government bonds for quantitative easing. The expected inflation rate will rise, so the real interest rate will fall sharply. But if it is a bond with a nominal interest rate, private financial institutions will buy it. As a result, the nominal interest rate will fall. "[56].

EconomistKazumasa Oguro"The reason why long-term interest rates do not rise even if government debt increases is because monetary easing by the Bank of Japan is restraining long-term interest rates.InflationIf long-term interest rates begin to rise due to the pressure, interest payment costs for government debt will rise sharply.To prevent this, the monetary base needs to be reduced, and the Bank of Japan must sell assets such as government bonds and reduce its balance sheet.However, this measure also raises long-term interest rates. "[57].

Hyperinflationary concerns

The "rock theory" is that "when you push and roll a rock that has stopped on a slope, it accelerates and cannot be stopped, and it rolls at a tremendous speed, crushing the inhabitants under the slope."DeflationからHyper inflationThe theory is that it changes instantaneously.[58].

EconomistYoshiyasu Ono"Even if the amount of money is increased extremely, only a lot of resources are allocated from money to other assets, and there is no effect on consumption and investment. While there is no effect on actual demand, money runs out of paper due to the expansion of money. It's almost like hyperinflation. "[59].

EconomistHideomi Tanaka"The increase in money shifts asset selection to non-monetary liquid assets (stocks, corporate bonds, foreign bonds, etc.), that is, increases investment. This functions as a route to increase real investment. Value of financial assets. Will rise and real investment will increase, and eventually investment will increase. "[60]..In addition, Tanaka said, "Looking at past cases of hyperinflation, the cause of hyperinflation was a huge budget deficit and fiscal financing was carried out. There are cases where hyperinflation was caused by monetary easing. Does not exist in history. "[60](However, Japan currently has a huge budget deficit).

Hidetomi Tanaka states that "the BOJ theory is the theory that the Bank of Japan cannot do anything against deflation."[61].

Yutaka Harada commented on the Bank of Japan's theory (Bank of Japan theory): "Until now, the Bank of Japan has no effect on monetary policy unless bank lending grows, so nothing happens to the real economy.Zero interest rateWhen it becomes, monetary policy cannot do anything.Prices are not determined by monetary policy.If nothing happens and quantitative easing is promoted, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet will deteriorate and the yen will crash.The expansion of the Bank of Japan's balance sheet shakes currency credibility.I've been saying that once inflation happens, it can't be stopped and it's going to be hyperinflation. "[62].

Kikuo Iwata said, "Quantitative easing is not effective unless money is available in the private non-bank sector. When it comes to underwriting the Bank of Japan, hyperinflation and currency credibility are immediately mentioned, but there is a recession. In a sense, it is a phenomenon that the credibility of the currency becomes thicker, and everyone shrinks. Too much credibility is also a problem, and it wobbles to some extent. Then, buy more things, spend money, and buy dollars again. Will be. "[63].

"It's worth noting that Japan won't have hyperinflation unless it's a big war," said Paul Krugman.[64].

EconomistKoichi Hamada"Even if you look at the postwar economy, it was double-digit inflation.Second oil crisisLater, around 1974, in 2 after the second crisis, the Bank of Japan held down to a single-digit increase.Hyperinflation is a term that refers to prices increasing thousands or tens of thousands of times, and it never happens in Japan today. "[65].

Yasuyuki Iida said, "It will never happen, but even if the Bank of Japan prints too many bills and becomes hyperinflationary, if you say,'How much is the total amount supported by public finance', it will stop perfectly." Is[66].

Former Bank of Japan Deliberation CommitteeNobuyuki Nakahara"If the yen depreciates sharply or prices rise sharply, we can tighten it. The Bank of Japan insists that monetary policy is not universal, but it will be a defense of maintaining the status quo."[67].

EconomistNaomi Murakami"The United States has implemented quantitative easing of 4 trillion yen in four years, but only moderate inflation of about 140% has occurred."[68].

EconomistSeiji Adachi"If large-scale monetary easing in deflationary Japan causes hyperinflation only in Japan, then we have an obligation to explain why hyperinflation did not occur in the United States and Sweden." Pointing out[69].

Destabilization

"It is doubtful that US monetary policy has been successful since the early 2000s, and it may have increased the swing of the economy," said an economist.[70].

Joseph E. Stiglitz said, "Quantitative easing by a small country has no global effect. However, quantitative easing by a large country like the United States has a global effect. Moreover, it has a negative impact on the real economy in the United States. Instead, it is used for foreign assets other than the United States. It may go to the exchange market or the commodity market, but its excess liquidity contributes to the instability of the world economy. " Are[71].

Regarding the argument that "monetary easing causes side effects such as hyperinflation and the collapse of yen and government bonds," Yoichi Takahashi points out that "there are no concrete examples of side effects."[72]..Takahashi says "AbenomicsBefore, it was said that monetary easing would cause hyperinflation, a crash of government bonds, and a crash of the yen.However, hyperinflation was not occurring, interest rates soon settled, and the yen moved as expected.In other words, hyperinflation, the crash of government bonds, and the crash of the yen were all lies. "[73].

About bubble concerns

Was the Deputy Governor of the Bank of JapanHirohide YamaguchiIs a side effect of mitigation policyYen carry tradeIt is undeniable that it may have affected overseas markets.[74].

EconomistAkio Makabe"There are also problems with monetary easing measures. Bold monetary easing measures are powerful drugs, and it is possible that both positive and negative effects will come out in unexpected ways. If the side effects of powerful drugs become apparent, that There are only a limited number of ways to control this. Especially with abundant funds, it is necessary to pay close attention to the possibility of bubble formation. Once the bubble is formed, large-scale balance sheet adjustment after the collapse In addition, the energy required for the exit strategy is immeasurable. "[75].

Partly due to quantitative easingAsset bubbleKazuhito Ikeo said, "It has been analyzed that various conditions are necessary for the bubble to occur. It does not occur only by monetary easing. Some people have a new paradigm. It is necessary to be convinced that the price increase of assets etc. is legitimate because[76].

影響

Money market dysfunction

As the call rate dropped to a virtually zero level of 0.001%, financial institutions such as banks could not cover the costs of managing funds in the call market.As a result, the balance of funds in the call market has shrunk significantly, and the functioning of the money market has declined.

Kazuhito Ikeo said, "Taking up assets called long-term government bonds from private banks and increasing reserve deposits by that amount will shorten the maturity composition of assets for private banks, and will be forced into investment that Saya can earn. , Portfolio rebalancing is more likely to occur. "[76].

Occurrence of negative interest rate

Normally, the real interest rate can be negative, but the nominal interest rate is not negative, but it was often seen that the unsecured call rate was negative under the quantitative easing policy.This is a yen fund obtained by a foreign bank at a negative costNegative interest rateIt is believed that it was released to the call market.It is believed that the BOJ had a large amount of funds in its current deposits and released the funds to a private bank with a negative interest rate and a credit line in order to avoid the risk of the BOJ going bankrupt.

2014 yearsKuroda HigashihikoWith the BOJ's quantitative easing, the real interest rate fell from minus 0.5% to minus 2.5%, and the rate of decline was 2%.[77][78].

#Expected inflation rate and real interest rateSee also

Changes in Japan's quantitative easing policy

The BOJ's current account balance target was set at around 5 trillion yen, but it has been gradually raised eight times since August 2001.2004Since January, it has been around 1 to 30 trillion yen (about 35 trillion to XNUMX trillion yen)#Japan's quantitative and qualitative monetary easing policySee the graph in).2006May 3At the monetary policy decision meeting in Japan, the consumer price index increased by more than 4% for four consecutive months, so it was judged that the conditions for cancellation were met, and it was canceled for the first time in about five years. It was decided thatThe policy lift has helped the Bank of Japan overcome government opposition.[44].. EconomistYoichi Takahashi"The formal inflation rate was 0.5%, and given the upward bias of the price index, it was minus 0.1%, and the quantitative easing was lifted."[79].

2003May 3According to the decision, the current account balance target was set at around 3-31 trillion yen until March 15st. The increase of 20 trillion yen from April is due to the establishment of Japan Post.

Decision dateAdjustment policyBalance targetBank of Japan Governor
2001May 3Adjusted target from unsecured call rate to BOJ current account balance.Government bond purchase operation increased from 4 billion yen per monthAbout 5 trillion yenHayami
May 8Government bond purchase operation monthly 6 billion yenAbout 6 trillion yenHayami
May 9Over 6 trillion yenHayami
May 12Government bond purchase operation monthly 8 billion yenAbout 10-15 trillion yenHayami
2002May 2Government bond purchase operation monthly amount to 1 trillion yenHayami
May 10Government bond purchase operation monthly amount to 1 trillion yenAbout 15-20 trillion yenHayami
2003May 3About 17-22 trillion yenFukui
May 4About 22-27 trillion yenFukui
May 5About 27-30 trillion yenFukui
May 10About 27-32 trillion yenFukui
2004May 1About 30-35 trillion yenFukui
2006May 3Adjusted target to unsecured call rate.Fukui

At the end of 2012, the BOJ's long-term government bond holdings were 89 trillion yen. It was 2013 trillion yen at the end of March 3 and 91 trillion yen at the end of 2013.Domestic banks were the first to sell government bonds, but the BOJ is still buying from others.The balance of long-term government bonds held by both the Bank of Japan and domestic banks has been on the rise since FY142, but at that time the balance held by domestic banks was higher.However, in the second half of 2010, the Bank of Japan sharply increased its holdings, surpassing that of domestic banks.This reversal has been since the first half of 2012[80].

Fund for asset purchase in Japan

Bank of Japan since 2010Long-term government bonds(Limited to 1-year bonds with a remaining maturity of 2 year or more and 2 years or less, 1-year bonds with a remaining maturity of 3 year or more and 5 years or less, 10-year bonds and 20-year bonds[81])・Treasury bills,CP,Corporate bond,Index-linked exchange-traded fund(ETF), Real Estate Investment Trust (J-REIT) And other financial assetsFund for asset purchase, etc.Was founded[82][83].

2013May 4, "Fund for asset purchase, etc." has been abolished[84] , It was decided that the purchase of long-term government bonds will be unified with the "ordinary government bond purchase limit" used for adjusting the financial market and will be clearly stated on the BOJ's balance sheet.[85][86].

The transition of the balance Changes in the balance of funds such as asset purchases See.

Japan's Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing Policy

Quantitative and qualitative monetary easing policy(Quantitative-Qualitative Easing, QQE)

  1. 2%Price targetCommitment to
  2. Increase in monetary base due to purchase of government bonds, etc.

Consists of two pillars[87].

On April 2013, 4, the Bank of Japan decided to introduce "quantitative and qualitative easing" (another dimension easing) at the monetary policy meeting, and the quantitative easing will continue until the price stability target of 4% is achieved. To be done[88][89].

The operational target for financial market adjustments has changed from overnight unsecured call rates to a monetary base ("Monetary base controlAdoption[90]), In addition to reviving quantitative easing until 2006, it also decided to abolish the fund for asset purchases, etc.[88]..At the same time, the balance of long-term government bonds held by the Bank of Japan shall be within the range of the outstanding balance of banknotes issued.Banknote rulesPaused the application of[89][90]..As a result, as of the end of March 2014, the Bank of Japan holds 3 trillion yen of long-term government bonds, which is 86.6 times the 1.8 trillion yen of banknotes.[91].

The Bank of Japan has embarked on monetary easing to double the monetary base in two years in order to achieve the price target of 2% in about two years.[92][93].

2013May 12According to the "BoJ Current Deposit Increase / Decrease Factors and Financial Adjustments" released by the Bank of Japan, the balance of the monetary base on December 12 was 26 billion yen, surpassing the 200 trillion yen expected to reach the end of 3100.[94].

2014May 10At the monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan decided to further ease the purchase of assets at a pace of increasing the monetary base by about 80 trillion yen annually.[95]..While five members from the vice president and researchers agreed with the additional easing, four members from financial institutions and private companies opposed it, which was an exceptionally small margin.[96].

Each country

Tapering is a term used by former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to mean a reduction in quantitative easing.[97][98].

EconomistKenneth RogoffPoints out that one of the main reasons why quantitative easing did not work well in other countries (other than Japan) was that central banks were reluctant to make promises.[99].

America

The Fed called the purchase of securities that were not targeted for purchase and the lending of funds to secure them "credit easing."[100].. The term "credit easing" is used to distinguish it from the "quantitative easing" of the Bank of Japan.[101].

2008 yearsLehman shockAt times, the United States fell into a state of temporary deflation, and then escaped from deflationary concerns with large-scale monetary easing policies called QE1 (quantitative easing first) and QE1 (quantitative easing second). Inflation rate has stabilized at a low level of inflation, fearing that it may fall into deflation again.[69].

From March 20102011$ 6 billion worth of $ 8 billion per month for eight months to JuneU.S. TreasuriesQE2, which made an additional purchase of, had a certain effect on the asset market including the stock market and the real economy, but could not have a significant impact on job creation.[27].

As of 2013, the Fed has more than tripled its monetary base immediately after the Lehman shock.[102].

Only about one in four Americans know exactly what quantitative easing is.ReutersRevealed in the survey[103].

2013May 12, FedFederal Open Market CommitteeAbout quantitative easing measures at (FOMC)2014Announced that it will reduce the monthly purchase amount from $ 1 billion (about 850 trillion yen) to $ 8 billion from January[104].."The US economy has been recovering moderately. If employment and price levels improve, we will reduce asset purchases even more slowly," Ben Bernanke said in a press conference.[105]"Reducing quantitative easing is not monetary tightening[104]"It has said.

2014May 1The Fed announced in a post-Federal Open Market Committee statement that it would reduce bond purchases from $ 2 billion to $ 750 billion starting in February.[106].

2014May 4, Fed unanimously decided in May to reduce bond purchases by $ 5 billion per month to a total of $ 100 billion in a Federal Open Market Committee statement[107].

2014May 9, Fed stated in a statement after the Federal Open Market Committee that it would end quantitative easing at a meeting in October of the same year[108].

2014May 10, Fed decided at the Federal Open Market Committee to end the third quantitative easing (QE3)[109].

The United Kingdom

Britain in October 2008 immediately after the Lehman shockBank of EnglandAfter increasing the balance sheet nearly three times at a stretch, it was gradually reduced from November 3 to March 2008.[110]..After that, after gradually expanding until around April 2010, it remained at an almost constant level until the end of 4.[110].. In April 2011consumption taxAfter raising the rate, the economy deteriorated, so the quantitative easing policy that had been suspended in 2012 was resumed.[111]..Since 2013, when the economy returned to a recovery trend, quantitative easing has stopped and the Bank of England's balance sheet has remained almost flat.[111].

The Bank of England's balance sheet as of 2013 has swelled about four times since just before the Lehman shock.[110].

2013May 8,Bank of England OfMark KearneyThe Governor points out that it is important for Britain not to repeat the mistakes that Japan has made too early to lift mitigation in the past.[112].

スウェーデン

National Bank of SwedenIncreased currency issuance 4.5 times after the Lehman shock[113].

Europe(Euro)

2015May 1,European Central BankThe (ECB) held a regular board meeting and decided to introduce a "quantitative easing policy (QE)"[114]. 2016May 12Announced that from April 2017, the monthly purchase amount will be reduced from 4 billion euros to 800 billion euros and will continue until at least the end of 600.[115][116].

Germany

The focus is on whether the ECB's quantitative easing policy will directly support the EU's banned government cash flow, and will determine in March 2020 whether it is unconstitutional.[117].

footnote

[How to use footnotes]
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  117. ^ Kyoto Shimbun February 2020, 2 morning edition

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