Portal field news

Portal field news

in ,

💴 | Is the dollar-yen exchange rate going into position adjustment?How to read the US employment statistics of Corona


写真 

Is the dollar-yen exchange rate currently in position adjustment?How to read the US employment statistics of Corona

 
If you write the contents roughly
After that, in the afternoon of NY, where the number of market participants should have decreased, the exchange rate was in a lull.
 

According to the March employment statistics released on April 4 (Friday), the number of non-farm payrolls in the non-farm sector increased by 2 from the previous month according to a business survey ... → Continue reading

 MONEY PLUS

MONEY PLUS is an economic media that conveys financial and economic information in an easy-to-understand manner for people who are not good at talking about money.


Wikipedia related words

If there is no explanation, there is no corresponding item on Wikipedia.

Exchange rate

Exchange rate(Kase rate,British: Exchange Rate) Is the normalForeign exchangeIn tradingForeign currencyIs the exchange ratio (exchange rate).exchange rate, Currency rate, or simply rate. fundamentallyMarketIs determined by. The rate determined by the marketMER(Market Exchange Rate).

Commentary

In the presentcurrency(currency) Is the government of each country (or multiple countries working together) orCentral BankIssued by thelawThose that are supported by and are generally used by such countries are generally used, but since the currency generally does not work outside the country/region concerned, in the case of cross-border transactions such as trade and capital movement, the country/region concerned is used. It will be necessary to convert to a currency that can be used in. At that time, the concept for determining the exchange rate of currency between own country/region and partner country/region isExchange rate.

What I want to pay attention to here is the key currency.American dollarThere are many countries that have adopted a fixed exchange rate system or a basket-based system with slow fluctuations against the (US dollar).It is necessary to consider whether the net of the rate considering the exchange rate of those countries linked to the US dollar is the accurate current US dollar exchange rate with the countries adopting the floating exchange rate system.

In addition, since it is difficult to determine the exchange rate between all currencies, the exchange rate may be determined by combining the exchange rate of each currency against the US dollar based on other currencies, for example, the US dollar with the highest transaction volume. ..thisCross rateTo say[1].

In general, exchange rates fluctuate due to changes in economic conditions regardless of the system. For a currency A, if the value of currency B increases under the floating exchange rate system, BAppreciationI said. Also, A is to BDepreciationSaid that

Major modern exchange policies

Monetary authorities such as governments and central banks can intervene in the foreign exchange market and influence the exchange rate of the country (Exchange interventionHowever, central bank intervention is the most influential. Interventions other than the central bankCurrency circulationBecause it does not change dramatically[2].. If the exchange rate level is artificially changed due to exchange intervention or change in the fixed exchange rate in the fixed exchange rate system, theRevaluation, If depreciatedDevaluationCall.

Of the exchange rates, the exchange rate with the US dollar, which is often used for the settlement of international financial transactions and trade, is the most important.

The relationship between the standard currency and its counterpart currency isFloating exchange rateFixed exchange rate systemThere are two methods.Developed countryMost of the currencies of the main adopt the floating exchange rate system,Relationship between supply and demandAre traded daily at different rates.

On the other hand, maintaining a constant exchange rate with a specific currency is called a "pegg", and maintaining a fixed exchange rate with the US dollar is "Dollar pegIs called.Developing countriesHad a strong tendency to "dollar peg" to maintain a fixed exchange rate system with the US dollar, but in recent years,Southeast AsiaIn some countries, as a result of being forced to respond to the currency crisis, they moved to a floating exchange rate system one after another (Asian currency crisisSee). In addition, it has become difficult to maintain a fixed exchange rate system due to the expansion of the economy due to trade and the decline of the US dollar.Chugoku,Middle EastIn countries etc.Currency basketYou can see the movement to switch to or try to switch to the peg.

EuropeNow, while gradually curbing exchange rate fluctuations between currencies,European Central Bank(ECB), governments of various countries cooperated to secure a certain fiscal discipline,[3]Realize a unified exchange policy within the regionEuroWas born. The euro has achieved the most powerful cross-border fixed exchange rate system, but this is not just a currency peg, but is accompanied by the establishment of a single currency through the unification of economic policies.[4][5][6].

Also in Switzerland in EuropeSwiss Central BankBut,World Financial Crisis (2007-)Since then, the economic situation in Europe, especially in the euro area, has deteriorated, making it relatively safe.Swiss francIn order to respond to the situation in which flight funds have flown into and the Swiss franc has soared, we have set up a defense line of 1 euro = 1.2 Swiss francs, and if the Swiss franc rises above that level, unlimited foreign currency will be purchased. The decision to induce a weak Swiss franc was made in September 2011.[7].. The Swiss Central Bank says it will work to maintain a large and continuous depreciation of the franc.

Exchange rates and prices

By comparing prices between the two countries, we can grasp the trend of the proper exchange rate and the approximate exchange rate.[8].. internationalThe Law of One PriceBy applying thePurchasing power parity theoryCall[9].

When comparing the wage level of each country at the current exchange rate, there may be a big difference. For example, in JapanGDPIs about $37,000,Eur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.euIs about $500. A simple comparison shows that Japan's wage level is about 70 times higher, but Vietnam is物 価Is cheap,incomeThe low price does not mean there is a 70 times difference in the amount that can be purchased. Considering these circumstances, we considered pricesPurchasing power parityThe GDP per capita after adjustment in Japan will be about 30,000 dollars in Japan and about 3,000 dollars in Vietnam, and the difference will be about 10 times. The fact that exchange rates do not reflect such price differences is related to economic structure and trade.

Suppose there are countries A and B. Country A isIndustrializationIs progressing and the productivity of the export industry is high. Suppose country A's export industry had 10 times the productivity of country B's export industry. If both of them export their products to the international market, the prices of exported goods in both countries will be the same due to the law of one price. As a result, country A's export industrial workers will earn 10 times as much income as country B's export industrial workers. On the other hand, assume that country A's domestic service industry had twice the productivity of country B's domestic service industry. If the one-price law is applied to the wages of export industrial workers and domestic service workers in country A, the service industry in country A must operate five times as much as the service industry in country B. It will not hold. For this reason, the prices of the industrial goods exported are the same in both countries, but the service charge will be higher in country A, and the price in country A will be higher than in country B.

As mentioned above, when there is a difference in export competitiveness and there are non-tradable goods, there is a difference between the actual exchange rate and purchasing power parity.

Some view that the value of the service is different. For example, a flashlight has the same value no matter in which country you buy it,TokyoHaving a haircut withHo Chi Minh CityHaving a haircut is a view that the value of input goods is different and the value is different. At this time, if the difference in value is factored into prices, comparison by purchasing power parity becomes meaningless.

In addition, purchasing power parity does not apply to the comparison of purchasing power in the international market because the actual exchange rate is effective.

Effect of exchange rate

The high currency of the home country is disadvantageous for export because the price of home products is high overseas, but the import goods are cheap[10].. In addition, the burden of debt (foreign bonds) is reduced.[10].

When the normal exchange rate falls, import prices rise, causing inflation, and at the same time, the deviation burden of foreign currency-denominated debt held by companies increases[11].

EconomistYasuyuki Iida"Companies are international, and exchange rates determine which country to employ"[12].

Mizuho Research Institute"When the exchange rate moves toward a stronger domestic currency, product prices based on the currency of the export partner will be put upward, and such fluctuations will invalidate efforts to reduce production costs," he said.[13].

Japan in 2009Economic and financial white paperSay that in any country, a strong national currency has a negative effect on the economy[14].

Factors affecting exchange rate fluctuations

exchangeIs the exchange ratio between the two currencies, soPrice(Exchange rate) is determined[14].. Forex is the currencyneedSupplyPrice is decided by[15].. In general, fluctuations in exchange rates are caused by economic trends, inflation rates, interest rate trends, financial trends,Financial PolicyThere are various factors such as future trends in[16].. There are also factors such as economic growth rates and political trends.[17].. Exchange rates, along with many macro indices, are endogenous variables that affect each other.[18].

The mechanism for determining the exchange rate is purchasing power parity in the long term (2-3 years or more) and in the medium term (1 year).Fundamentals, In the short term (several months), it is said to be determined by the trend of financial assets[19].. Exchange rates move due to various factors, but if these factors are ignored, the concept of purchasing power parity often applies in the long term, but interest rate differences (asset approach) often apply in the short term.[8].. In addition, it is highly likely that it will be determined by the current account balance in the medium term.[20].

economist OfLawrence KleinIs the mechanism for determining the exchange rate, 1) interest rate difference, 2)Current account balanceSystem to GDP ratio, 3) export price ratio[21].

However, the movement of the exchange rate can be explained only by the movement of macro variables.[22].. In the ultra-short term of daily price movements, it moves according to the psychology of expectations and speculation of trading participants[23].. Due to the behavior of dealers who carry out foreign exchange transactions that incorporate future trends, exchange rates often move ahead of actual macro index changes.[22].. The exchange rate may be outside the normal range and greatly deviate from the equilibrium rate due to self-fulfilling “expectations”.[24].. In such cases, monetary authorities may intervene and send "signals" (Forex balance operation[24].

National power

For the exchange rate, for example, "Exchange rate should represent national power.Low birthrate and aging populationIt is strange that the currencies of declining nations should rise." The exchange rate is basically just the price of two currencies, and in the long run it will follow the purchasing power parity.[25].. In other words, the higher the inflation rate, the lower the value of the currency, and the lower the inflation rate, the higher the inflation rate. Then, in the long run, we can simply think that it will be reflected in the exchange rate.

Basically, the exchange rate is just the exchange rate between goods, so it does not mean that the exchange rate represents national power or that the currency of a country with a high growth rate continues to be bought.[26].

The US GDP announcement on July 2020, 7 showed a staggering -30%, but it did not affect the dollar.In this way, national power and economic growth do not always affect the foreign exchange market.

Delay in globalization of lenders in developed countries

  • 1) A country's manufacturing industry is actively exporting, earning money from the world, selling foreign currencies and buying its own currency
  • 2) If the financial industry in that country returns money to the world, sells its own currency, buys foreign currency, and actively invests abroad.

Global money circulation goes well and the country doesn't get stronger, but in many developed countries, manufacturing is enthusiastic about developing foreign markets, while banks are cautious about foreign investment and lending for fear of foreign exchange risk. For this reason, 1) is prominent in the currencies of developed countries, and the currencies tend to rise.Furthermore, for example, in Japan, the reorganization of regional banks has been delayed, and there are no lenders who can speak the languages ​​of developing countries. Therefore, even if there is a financially tight country with high interest rates and high demand for funds overseas, it will become "larger.・ Cannot lend due to "insufficient language training" 

As a result, a phenomenon has been observed in which the yen is strengthening due to the delay in globalization of lenders in the financial industry and the inability of the domestic money to be returned to the world. In addition, the yen is not rising because of Japan's high national strength and high standard of living.

Interest rate difference

EconomistYoichi TakahashiIs "Nominal interest rateNot the differenceReal interest rateIf you take the difference, you can explain it well."[27].

Balance of payments

Exchange rate andTrade balanceThere is a theory that there is a correlation[28].. One is the theory that exchange rates affect the trade balance.[28].. The other is that the trade balance affects the exchange rate.[28].

If the current account is in the black, the exchange rate in that country will be high,Capital balanceIs in the red, the exchange rate will be low[29][20].. EconomistTakatoshi Ito"If all else is constant, an increase in exports will cause the current account to move into the black and become a factor in the strong exchange rate,"[18].. EconomistHeizo TakenakaPoint out that the current account deficit will put downward pressure on the currency[30].

"In recent years (2007), "the amount of investment" influences the exchange rate," the economist points out.[31].

Daiichi Kangin Research Institute"The activation of capital transactions has reduced the impact of current account trends on the exchange rate," he said.[32].

EconomistAsahi Noguchi"The trade balance is determined by the difference between a country's domestic income and spending. In other words, the trade surplus is not directly related to exchange rate movements."[33].

Financial Policy

EconomistSeiji Adachi"The exchange rate is not determined by the difference in interest rates, but by the difference in the amount of money supplied by the central bank.Monetary baseIt depends on the difference in supply stance."[34].

Yoichi Takahashi said, "It is common knowledge in the world that the exchange rate is determined by the amount of money in each country.[35]"The monetary approach, which attaches great importance to the amount of money supplied and the difference in interest rates, has high explanatory power.George SorosAnd the fact that the exchange rate settles in the ratio of the monetary base of each country called “” is essentially the same as the monetary approach. Can explain a considerable part of the monetary base in the long and medium term[27]"I point out.

Yoichi Takahashi said, “Forex isFinancial PolicyOf flow without being decided byCurrent account balanceSome people say that the exchange rate is determined by 2% of the amount of currency between the two countries, according to the data so far.Looking at the current account balance in terms of stock, it can be said that it affects the exchange rate because it represents the risk premium of Japanese financial assets, but it is not a monthly flow figure.Rather, the exchange rate affects the current account balance of the flow one year later.[36]"It has said.

EconomistMasayuki Morikawa"The monetary easing policy tends to bring about a nominal depreciation of the currency, but whether or not it has the effect of depreciating the real exchange rate depends on the magnitude relationship between prices and the effect on the exchange rate." Are[37].

Kuroda HigashihikoPoint out that monetary policy alone does not determine exchange rates[38].

Fiscal policy

Real effective exchange rate

In Japan, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen and the US dollar has attracted attention (Later), there are many other participants in the international market, and each trades in its own currency under a floating exchange rate. You cannot know the value of the currency.

As an index for measuring the relative strength of currencies in the foreign exchange marketEffective exchange rateAnd this isCentral Bank,International settlement bankEtc. calculate and publicly announce accordingly.

In addition, when considering fluctuations in exchange rates, the actual exchange rate will deviate from the nominal exchange rate if the inflation rate is different in both countries. An exchange rate that takes into account the effect of such inflation is called a "real exchange rate."

Even in the effective exchange rate, it is common to calculate the value before and after the price increase rate adjustment.Nominal effective exchange rate”, after adjustingReal effective exchange rateCall[39].. The real effective exchange rate is an indicator of the advantages and disadvantages in terms of trade with all trading partners.[40].

Bank of JapanAs described in[39]There are various issues in terms of realization (what kind of currency should be used) and implementation (what currency weight should be used). It is necessary to confirm whether the deflator and currency weight are suitable for the purpose to be analyzed, for example, as a deflator when trying to analyze the competitive environment of a company.Consumer price indexIt is not desirable to use[41].. This is because the cost of companies such as wages and the consumer price index are divergent, and when competing with a third country in the US market, the relationship between the currency of the third country and the yen becomes a problem, not the dollar yen It depends on things. In addition, it is also necessary to pay attention to how retrospective revisions are made due to weight changes.[42], In the case of statistics that retroactively revise the past based on the present weight, the meaning of past values ​​must be carefully examined. In addition to the past, there are various points to keep in mind when comparing with the past, not only comparing the levels of real effective exchange rates, but also changes in the economic situation and economic structure.

footnote

  1. ^ "Cross rate (Kurosureto)". Securities glossaryNomura Securities. 2021/2/12Browse.
  2. ^ PR Krugman, M. Obstfeld Krugman's International Economics Theory and Policy (XNUMX) Finance
  3. ^ "European Melancholy-Document/EC Integration", edited by Nihon Keizai Shimbun,Nihon Keizai Shimbun, 1993,ISBN-4 532-14178-8.
  4. ^ Monetary Union in the EU (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
  5. ^ "European Central Bank Monetary Policy and the Euro", edited by Mika Tanaka, Seiichi Fujita, Hisashi Harui,Yuhikaku, 2004,ISBN-4 641-16206-9.
  6. ^ "Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank-The emergence of a new international currency, Euro", Naoko Hamori,Chuo Keizai, 2002,ISBN-4 502-64610-5.
  7. ^ Swiss central bank: set a cap on franc rate for the first time in 30 years, defensively defending (5) Bloomberg August 2011, 9
  8. ^ a b Asahi Noguchi “Lecture on how economics works”, Natsumesha, 2003, page 71.
  9. ^ "Easy Economics" edited by Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc., Nikkei Business Human Bunko, 2001, p. 126.
  10. ^ a b Osamu Ito "Economics of Japan-History, Current Situation, Issues" Chuokoron Shinsha <Chukou Shinsho>, 2007, 112 pages.
  11. ^ Sanwa Research Institute, "The Japanese Economy in 30 Words", Nikkei Business Newspaper, Nikkei Business Bunko, 2000, p.258.
  12. ^ Yasuyuki Iida, Rin Amemiya, Economics of Poverty Elimination, Chikuma Publishing, Chikuma Bunko, 2012, pp.38-39.
  13. ^ Mizuho Research Institute, "Economics in Three Hours-Points to Know", Nikkei Business Newspaper, Nikkei Business Bunko, 3, p. 2002.
  14. ^ a b Yoichi Takahashi "Deep in the news" "Return to China from China" due to yen depreciation Is the policy of the major manufacturing industry correct?Hyundai Business July 2015, 1
  15. ^ Heizo Takenaka, "Economics of Professor Takenaka", Gentosha, 2000, p. 147.
  16. ^ Asahi Noguchi, "Learn the Global Economy," Chikuma Shobo <Chikuma Shinsho>, 2007, 294 pages.
  17. ^ Arai Arai, Noriyuki Yanagawa, Noriko Arai, e-Classroom "Books that Understand the Economic Concept" Iwanami Shoten <Iwanami Jr. Shinsho>, 2005, p. 162.
  18. ^ a b "Easy Economics" edited by Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc., Nikkei Business Human Bunko, 2001, p. 125.
  19. ^ Kurihara Noboru/Diamond, Inc. “I understand the illustration! How the Economy Works [New Edition]] Diamond, 2010, pp. 140-141.
  20. ^ a b Heizo Takenaka, "Economics of Professor Takenaka", Gentosha, 2000, p. 239.
  21. ^ Nori Kurihara/Diamond, Inc. “Understand the illustration! The Mechanism of Economy [New Edition]] Diamond, 2010, 141 pages.
  22. ^ a b "Easy Economics" edited by Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc., Nikkei Business Human Bunko, 2001, p. 129.
  23. ^ Osamu Ito "Economics of Japan-History, Current Situation, Issues" Chuokoron Shinsha <Chukou Shinsho>, 2007, 178 pages.
  24. ^ a b "Easy Economics" edited by Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc., Nikkei Business Human Bunko, 2001, p. 131.
  25. ^ Misunderstanding of "foreign" foreign currency investment in the "exchange = national power theory" considered in the euro market (2)Kazuhisa Okamoto's views at
  26. ^ The "illusion" of the "exchange rate = national power theory" in the Euro market: misunderstanding of foreign currency investment (2)Atsushi Sasaki and Shoji Takenaka's views in Japan
  27. ^ a b Politics/Society [How to solve Japan] Exchange talk is full of noise.ZAKZAK December 2014, 7
  28. ^ a b c Asahi Noguchi “Lecture on how economics works”, Natsumesha, 2003, page 84.
  29. ^ Arai Arai, Noriyuki Yanagawa, Noriko Arai, e-classroom "Books that Understand the Economic Concept" Iwanami Shoten <Iwanami Jr. Shinsho>, 2005, 163-164.
  30. ^ Masahiko Sato, Heizo Takenaka, "What was the economy like? Conference," Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Nikkei Business Human Bunko, 2002, p.201.
  31. ^ Yusuke Kawamura “Japanese Finance (Illustrated trivia series)” Natsumesha, revised new edition, second edition, 2, p. 2007.
  32. ^ Daiichi Kangin Research Institute, "The Japanese Economy Starting with Basic Terms", Nikkei Business Journal, Nikkei Business Bunko, 2001, page 79.
  33. ^ Asahi Noguchi “Lecture on how economics works”, Natsumesha, 2003, page 85.
  34. ^ Seiji Adachi "Lecture: World Economy Helping Business" [3rd]-Mystery of "Euro Buying" despite European Economic Stagnation-Hyundai Business July 2013, 5
  35. ^ Koichi Hamada, Yale University Professor "The Bank of Japan's policy is "too little, too late"" Interview with Ugoku Part 2 Interviewer: Yoichi TakahashiHyundai Business July 2011, 3
  36. ^ Politics/Society [How to solve Japan] Large misunderstanding of current account balance No impact on growth rate even in the redZAKZAK August 2013, 4 (as of August 5, 2013Internet archive
  37. ^ Yen appreciation and Japan's international competitiveness-"Excessive yen appreciation"-RIETI November 2012, 10
  38. ^ BOJ governor: additional easing new method also “maintains 2% price increase target”Mainichi Newspaper March 2015, 1
  39. ^ a b Real effective exchange rate(Bank of Japan
  40. ^ The strong yen is due to the failure of economic policiesSYNODOS-Synodos-August 2010, 10
  41. ^ For exampleIMF The2012 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION (JAPAN)Pointed out that using the unit labor cost as a deflator, the real effective exchange rate is higher than the past average level.
  42. ^ Explanation of "effective exchange rate (nominal/substantial)"(Bank of Japan

Related item

10-year long-term exchange chart

Yahoo! Finance:Australian dollar Canadian dollar Swiss franc Euro GBP U.S. dollar

 

Back to Top
Close