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💹 | TSE 3rd consecutive fall, 54 yen depreciation The yen's appreciation is heavy


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TSE 3rd consecutive fall, 54 yen depreciation Yen appreciation progresses heavily

 
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However, in the afternoon, the yen's exchange rate began to depreciate, and exporters were worried about the deterioration of business performance, so sell orders were placed.
 

The Nikkei Stock Average (18 types) on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on the 225th fell for the third consecutive business day.The closing price is 3 yen compared to the previous day ... → Continue reading

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Yen exchange rate

Yen exchange rate(Ensoba)YenAgainstForeign currencyRelative value ofExchange rate).It is usually displayed in yen equivalent to one unit of foreign currency (there are other practices depending on the currency and market).

In particular,U.S. dollar,EuroShown by comparison with, among themRelative value of yen to US dollarMay show[1]

Overview

In the international marketJapan OfcurrencyA state in which the relative value of the yen is higher than the level considered as a standard in some sense, such as past rates and political purposes.Appreciation of the yenOn the contrary, when it is at a low level, "weaker yen".To put it simply, it used to be 1 yen to the dollar, but when it reaches 80 yen to the dollar, the yen has strengthened.In other words, it is possible to exchange for one dollar with a smaller amount of "yen" (it is easy to understand that the currency value has increased considering that it is possible to buy more dollars with the same yen amount. As will be described later, there is also a notation of "1 yen and 75 dollar" instead of "1 dollar and 1 yen", which is easier to understand more intuitively).

Major modern exchange policies

Of the exchange rates, it is often used for international financial transactions and trade settlements.American dollarThe exchange rate with the US dollar is the most important.2007One US dollar was exchanged at a ratio of 1 yen to 95 yen.Changes in Japan's exchange rateYenchecking ...

Impact of yen exchange rate

The advantages of the strong yen are that imported products will be cheaper (including raw materials) and overseas travel from Japan will be cheaper, while export products will be expensive overseas, and export products will not sell and the domestic industry will be hit. There are downsides such as a recession due to the impact and a decrease in tourism revenue in Japan.[2]..When the yen depreciates, yen-denominated overseas asset income will increase[3].

"If the yen strengthens, the terms of trade will improve (purchasing from outside Japan will be advantageous.[4]) So it ’s okay. ”[5][6]The terms of trade are the ratio of export prices to import prices, so if the yen strengthens, both export prices and import prices will fall, so there will be no systematic effect on the terms of trade.[5]..on the contrary,Comparative advantageIf the export industry (export industry because it has a comparative advantage) becomes stronger than the profitability rate and moves out of Japan, the average productivity will decrease, the wages will decrease, and the standard of living will decrease. (See:Yen recession).The appreciation of the yen is externalDirect investmentIs a factor to increase[7].

Furthermore, when the yen strengthens, the prices of production factors such as the Japanese labor force become relatively high compared to other countries.[6]..Yen appreciation lowers wages outside Japan compared to Japanese wages[8]..As a result of this high cost, the competitiveness of export goods will decline, and exports will decline, causing the performance of exporting companies and related companies such as their subcontractors to deteriorate.On the contrary, imported goods are relatively cheap, so they are more competitive than domestic products and imports will increase.

It is easy to think that there is a merit at first glance because the amount of things that can be bought for 1 yen increases due to the strong yen, but it is difficult to earn that 1 yen, so it cannot be said that the strong yen will be advantageous.[6].

In addition, if the yen strengthens, production activities will not change immediately, but consumption and capital investment will react more quickly and fall due to concerns about future economic deterioration.As a result, domestic excess savings (savings-investment) increased, which means an increase in the current account surplus (Savings investment balance[9]..In other words, the trade surplus is likely to expand immediately after the appreciation of the yen.After that, the trade surplus will shrink as production activities stagnate as business sentiment deteriorates due to a decline in domestic consumption and investment.It is necessary to be careful not to underestimate the adverse effects of the strong yen in view of the expansion of the trade surplus immediately after the strong yen.

economist OfKunio Okina"The depreciation of the yen has a very limited effect on exports and economic recovery. It is a plus for those who have labor or stocks in the manufacturing industry of large companies, but for those who do not. The negative distribution effect can increase dissatisfaction. "[10].

Former BOJ director said, "The depreciation of the yenReal wageBrings a decrease in.The depreciation of the yen worsens the terms of trade, and wages do not increase in parallel with corporate profits, so in the short termLabor share"It is not desirable to consider that many foreign tourists visit as a result of the relatively poor Japanese people."[11].

EconomistIwata Kazumasa"If the yen depreciates and energy prices rise and remain high, the terms of trade will deteriorate significantly. While the purchase price of companies will rise significantly, the selling price will not rise, profits will be reduced, and wages will be restrained."Real incomeIf the outflow outweighs the effects of exports / production and income growth, the level of consumer utility will decline for the economy as a whole. "[12].

EconomistObata Seki"If the yen depreciates, the prices of imported goods will surely rise. The lives of ordinary people will be difficult. Some large companies such as automobiles and electric appliances have merits, but small and medium-sized domestic demand-related companies that support the Japanese economy. For companies, the negatives are greater, such as higher transportation and electricity costs. "[13].

Daiwa Institute of Research"The depreciation of the yen is scarce in resourcesFood self-sufficiencyIs not desirable for Japan, which has a low[14].

EconomistKoichi HamadaIs "ClassicalSpeaking of which, the terms of trade are decided by the Arab king,Financial PolicyChanges in the exchange rate and terms of trade are irrelevant.However, there is data that there is such a relationship.Since oil is denominated in dollars, the depreciation of the yen tends to worsen the terms of trade. "[15].

Hideo Hayakawa points out that "the impact on the terms of trade is much greater for crude oil prices than for exchange rates."[11].. EconomistYoichi Takahashi"The terms of trade have little to do with the exchange rate, and the terms of trade are determined by the price of crude oil."[16].

Economists talk about the argument that exports will not increase even if the yen depreciates.Naomi Murakami"If the home currency becomes cheaper, a mechanism to increase price competitiveness in the international market will work. If this mechanism does not work, it ignores economic principles."[17]..Murakami said, "As the yen depreciates, corporate profits increase and stock prices and foreign currency-denominated assets increase, which strengthens the balance sheet of the private sector and further strengthens the mechanism that brings about capital investment and employment expansion." Pointing out[18].

EconomistPaul Krugman"Historically, while there is strong evidence that currency depreciation drives exports, there is also economic data that the impact is unclear until several quarters. Normally, a 10% depreciation of the yen will result in 10% exports. It should grow. Overall, the positive side is greater than the negative side of the weak yen. "[19].

EconomistMasazumi Wakatabe"The depreciation of the yen will increase the profits of import competitors (eg towel makers)," he said.[20].

EconomistYasushi Harada,Daiwa Institute of Research"A 10% appreciation of the yen will push down real GDP by 0.54%," he said.[21]..Harada says "Full employmentThe exchange rate level is good.The depreciation of the yen after full employment is a disadvantage. "[22].

EconomistNorihisa Iwata"The excessive appreciation of the yen has raised the ratio of non-regular employment, promoted overseas relocation mainly in the manufacturing industry, and led to a decrease in demand for domestic employment and an increase in the unemployment rate."[23].

EconomistHideomi Tanaka"If the yen strengthens beyond the ability to improve productivity, wages and investment will be restrained due to pressure on corporate profits, employment will decrease, and national consumption will decline through it," he said.[24]..Tanaka said, "Despite the fact that Japan's representative industries are in trouble, there are discourses in the world that the appreciation of the yen is" strong evidence, "" national power rises, "and" desirable for Japan. " There is also a view that the appreciation of the yen will eliminate companies, prevent excessive competition, and improve economic efficiency. Good companies are in trouble only with unexpected exchange rates, not evaluation of internationally reputed technology and sales power. Is it better to be driven into and eliminated? "[25].

Masazumi Wakatabe said, "There is a voice that further corporate efforts should be made to withstand the strong yen, but it is an extremely irresponsible opinion. If companies make efforts against the strong yen, the production base will be moved overseas. Would be. "[26].

Factors of yen exchange rate

DeflationAnd lowinterest rateJapan continues toPurchasing power parity theoryandInterest rate theoryTherefore, it is a theoretical expectation that the nominal appreciation of the yen will progress on a long-term average.In addition, the appreciation of the yen acts as deflationary pressure.

As of 2010, it is "risk avoidance yen buying"[27][28]When risk aversion occurs, stocks around the world tend to fall and the yen tends to appreciate.On the contrary, when it becomes "risk-friendly", stocks around the world tend to rise and the yen tends to depreciate.

EconomistSatoshi MatsubaraThe main factors behind the appreciation of the yen are 1) an increase in Japanese exports, 2) an increase in tourists from outside Japan to Japan, and 3) an increase in speculative money to Japan.[29].

Economists point out that "when Japanese stock prices rise or interest rates rise, the yen tends to appreciate."[30].

As of 2014IMFThe equilibrium value of the dollar yen based on the purchasing power parity estimated by is about 102 yen.[31].

Balance of payments

Trade surplusThere is an argument that the yen will strengthen as the number increases, or conversely, the yen will weaken as the trade surplus decreases.Exchange interventionWithout, the exchange rate fluctuates so that the trade surplus and changes in external lending are in equilibrium.In other words, even if the trade surplus increases, the yen will appreciate only when the amount of external lending does not increase by that amount so as to balance the two.As a result, the trade surplus and the increase in external lending will be the same.

In addition, if the increase in the trade surplus is less than that of external loans, the yen will depreciate.Similarly, when the trade surplus decreases, it is determined whether the yen will strengthen or depreciate based on the relative increase or decrease with external lending, not the trade surplus itself.This is because the current balance and the capital balance, which are determined separately, fluctuate so that the exchange rate adjusts so that the current balance + capital balance + foreign currency reserve increase / decrease = 0.

The yen will appreciate so that the trade surplus will not be larger than that of external loans.

National power

Takuro Morinaga"The depreciation of the yen is the same as Japan being treated as a second-class country," he points out.[32].

There is a misunderstanding about the exchange rate, for example, "Foreign exchange should represent national power. It is strange that the currency of a country that is declining due to the declining birthrate will rise."[33]..The exchange rate is basically just the exchange value of two currencies, and in the long runPurchasing power parityWill move along[33].. That is,InflationIt can be considered that the higher the rate, the lower the value of the currency, and the lower the inflation rate, the higher the value.Then, simply think that it will be reflected in the exchange rate in the long run.Since the exchange rate is basically just the exchange rate between goods, it can be said that it is an illusion that the exchange rate represents national power or that a currency with a high growth rate is bought.[33].

Reserve currency

The yen's appreciation is progressingReserve currencyIt is pointed out that this is because the presence as a person has become stronger.Central Bank(Especially the central banks of Asian countries) were dollar-centricForeign currency reserveThis is because we are aiming for diversification of[27].

Financial Policy

Yutaka Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research point out that "the exchange rate is the exchange rate of money in each country, and if the money in other countries increases while the money in Japan is not increasing, the yen will strengthen."[34]..Yutaka Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research said, "Foreign exchange rates, financeFiscal policyIf it is a variable determined by, the appreciation of the yen will be the result of policy.monetary easingIf we expand our finances without doing so, the yen will strengthen. "Mandel Fleming model[35].

Yoichi Takahashi said, "The exchange rate isMonetary baseIt has a lot to do with.If you want to correct the appreciation of the yen, you can print the yen and increase it.When the yen strengthens,GDPWill decrease, and the stock price will decrease.When the yen depreciates, GDP will increase and stock prices will rise. "[36].

Yen appreciation syndrome

When the US government increased dissatisfaction with Japanese policy, the exchange rate often turned to a stronger yen and a weaker dollar regardless of economic fundamentals (monetary base disparity between Japan and the United States, interest rate disparity, etc.).US-Japan trade frictionSuch)[37]..The phenomenon that such political factors in Japan and the United States bring about the appreciation of the yenStanford UniversityProfessor Emeritus called it the "strong yen syndrome" and argued that it was the reason for the long-term stagnation of the Japanese economy and the long-term appreciation of the yen.[37].

Hidetomi Tanaka said, "In Japan, it has been optimal since the latter half of 1990.Money supplyThe actual growth rate was lower than the growth rate of.The exchange rate is "Purchasing power parityWhen approaching the ceiling ofBank of JapanThe tendency of the monetary tightening stance to become stronger has been confirmed by empirical studies "(as of 2010).[38].

Relationship with interest rates

exchange rateIf the yen strengthens, the prices of raw materials, foodstuffs, oil and other imported goods from outside Japan will fall, so物 価Goes down.The fall in pricesinterest rateThe appreciation of the yen in the foreign exchange market will lead to a decline in interest rates.

When the yen depreciates, prices of raw materials, foodstuffs, oil and other imported goods from outside Japan will rise, and prices will rise.A rise in prices leads to a rise in interest rates, so a depreciation of the yen in the foreign exchange market causes a rise in interest rates.

When the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States widens due to rising interest rates in the United States and falling interest rates in Japan, it becomes a Japanese financial product.investmentSince it is more advantageous to invest in US financial products than to do so, yen selling and dollar buying proceed in an attempt to convert yen into dollars and purchase US financial products.As a result, money will flow out from Japan to the United States, and the dollar will strengthen and the yen will weaken.

If the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States widens due to rising interest rates in Japan or falling interest rates in the United States, it will be more advantageous to invest in Japanese financial products than to invest in US financial products. Yen buying and dollar selling are progressing to buy Japanese financial products in exchange for yen.As a result, money will flow from the United States into Japan, and the yen will strengthen and the dollar will weaken.

In the short term, in countries with high interest ratescurrencyTends to rise.However, countries with high interest rates are countries with high inflation rates and countries with large declines in currency value, so currencies often depreciate in the long run.[39].

EconomistYukio NoguchiSays that the yen can be strengthened by raising interest rates[40]..EconomistTakeshi KataokaIs "Mandel Fleming modelAs is clear from the findings of (Fiscal policyIncreasing fiscal spending (only by) will lead to higher interest rates, which in turn will lead to a stronger yen. "[41].

Thus, the relationship between interest rate differentials and exchange rates is opposite in the short and long term.[42].

Real effective exchange rate

"Real effective exchange rateWords such as "The yen is not strong if you look at it" are sometimes used easily, but this is often used improperly.[41].

The argument that the current appreciation of the yen is not a serious situation in terms of the real effective exchange rate is that Japan is compared to other countries.DeflationIt means that it is advantageous for exports because it is progressing, and it has nothing to do with the profit conditions of domestic companies and the deterioration of the employment environment, which are concerns about the strong yen and deflation. Should be noted[41].

Yoichi Takahashi said, "Even if scholars discuss with figures such as purchasing power parity and effective exchange rate calculated at a certain point, it will be difficult for companies and business circles to export and it will not be possible to maintain companies in Japan, so let's expand overseas. It is a completely different opinion from those who think that it is a meaningless argument. "[43].

Relationship with stock price

Foreign investors own 26.7% of Japanese stocks (as of the end of March 2011)[44]Furthermore, the share of the trading value is 64.1% (FY2010).[45][46]It has become.

The influence on stock prices and the economy is enormous, and it is said that the trends of foreign investors determine the trends of Japanese stocks.[47].

Japan's stock price is said to be determined by the US stock price and the dollar-yen rate[48][49][50][51][52].

It is difficult to form a trend because the buying and selling of Japanese individuals includes day trader-like transactions.Foreigners are trying to keep the holding ratio of Japanese stocks constant by diversifying investment.This leads to the ease with which foreigners buy and sell trends.[47].

Appreciation of the yenSometimesTSEIn many cases, the stock prices of companies for export have fallen.Also,OutputIndustrial performance deteriorates,輸入The performance of the industry and its related companies will be strong.Also,TOPIX,Nikkei averageIs often falling.

  • When importing, you can purchase cheaper than before, so you can reduce costs.
  • When exporting, the high yen makes it difficult for people to buy it, which reduces profits.Even if it is manufactured overseas, trade is denominated in basic dollars, and it will decrease when profits outside Japan are converted into yen.
  • When viewed in dollars, Japanese stocks are expensive, so it is easy for foreigners to enter in one direction with profit-taking sales and form trends.

weaker yenAt times, the stock prices of TSE export companies often rise.In addition, the performance of the import industry will deteriorate, and the performance of the export industry and related companies will improve.In addition, TOPIX and the Nikkei average often rise.

  • When importing, you have to purchase higher than before, which increases the cost.
  • When exporting, the yen is cheap, so it is easier for people to buy it, and profits increase.In addition, trade is denominated in basic dollars and increases when profits outside Japan are converted into yen.
  • Japanese stocks are cheaper when viewed in dollars, so it is easy for foreigners to come in in one direction with additional purchases and form trends.

Forex practice in Japan

Exchange rate display of money changers

NEWS,News (Chinese)The rates such as "1 dollar = 110 yen-10 yen" reported in the media arebankIt is the rate at which foreign exchange transactions are conducted between banks, and is called the interbank market price.

Each bank will contact customers (export / import companies, individuals, etc.) of the day at 9:55 am every business day.Spot rateMid-price around 10 o'clock based on[53][54]Unless the interbank market moves significantly (even if the interbank market moves finely), it is common to trade based on that market during the day (in the Tokyo market, before). There was a practice of setting the midpoint price of the dollar yen used jointly in the duty system of major banks, but it is different now).In addition, most of the transactions between banks are against (US) dollars in all currencies, and the amount of direct transactions with each country's currency such as yen and Thai baht is small.For this reason, the exchange rate between each country's currency and the yen is generally calculated as a combination of the currency's exchange rate against the dollar and the dollar-yen exchange rate.

There are two ways to display the exchange rate: one dollar is 1 yen and one yen is 120/1 dollars = 1 dollars.In most currencies, it is customary to use the amount of each country's currency equivalent to US $ 120, such as 0.00833 dollar = 1 yen or 120 dollar = 1 Korean won.Exceptions are the pound sterling and the euro, and it is customary to display 700 pound = 1 dollars, 1 euro = 1.9 dollars, etc.

When considering the exchange rate of yen and foreign currencies in Japan, 1 yen = ○○ dollar[Note 1]Is denominated in foreign currency (dollars), and displayed as 1 dollar = XX yen is denominated in the home currency (yen).From the perspective of the United States, 1 yen = XX dollars is denominated in the home currency (dollar), and 1 dollar = XX yen is denominated in the foreign currency (yen).Regarding the exchange rate of the yen, the currency denominated in the home currency is sometimes called the currency denominated in the Japanese currency.

Foreign currency deposits and foreign exchange transactions

When a general individual requests a foreign currency deposit from a bank, a fee equivalent to about several% -10% (slightly different depending on the bank, etc .; the rate of how many yen is usually per unit of foreign currency) is factored into the rate. ..Therefore, at the once-common fee rate called "dollar-yen one-way 1 yen" (meaning that the difference between the mid-price and the rate used for trading is 1 yen per dollar), the mid-price of the bank of the trading partner If 1 dollar = 1 yen, the rate used for depositing in foreign currency deposits, refunds, foreign remittance efforts, and receiving in yen is

  • Yen → dollar (TTS) 1 dollar = 111 yen
  • Dollar → Yen (TTB) 1 dollar = 109 yen

Becomes

As the amount of money exchanged increases, so does the difference.

(Ex)

  • 10000 Yen→ (100 yen = 1 dollar) → 100 dollars
  • Next day 100 dollars → (105 yen = 1 dollar) = 10500 Yen

Also, with foreign currency cashExchangeWhen requesting, a fee called a cash handling charge (cash handling charge) is added. (In the case of purchase from a customer, it is cheaper, and in the case of sale to a customer, it is higher.)

In the case of foreign currency deposits, it is sufficient to change the books, but in the case of currency exchange, it is necessary to actually exchange cash in the foreign currency with the home country of the foreign currency, and transportation costs, insurance premiums, etc. will be incurred. It is said that the reason is that it will end up.In addition, for the above reasons, foreign currency coins are often not handled, and even if they are handled, the rate will be worse than that of banknotes in most cases.

Others

The divergence between the mid-market or interbank market and the customer market is relatively small in the US dollar and the euro.In currencies with a small amount of transactions, the market divergence (bank profit margin) tends to be large.

In addition, the rate used for trade transactions and the rate used for future transactions called forward exchange contracts are determined in consideration of interest rates up to the settlement date.

In foreign currencyCredit cardIt is said that the settlement market price when using is the market price when the billing slip arrives at the settlement center of the card company, plus a fee of about several percent.Therefore, the real exchange rate may be more advantageous than exchanging money domestically and paying in cash overseas.

History of the yen exchange rate

1856-1871 (before yen)

1856 - 1860
US Consul on September 3, 1856Townsend HarrisBased on the silver content, 1Dollar = 3 Ichibugin, or 0.75Both(1 car = $ 1.33) is decided.However, there is a big difference in the gold-silver exchange ratio between Japan and foreign countries, and when looking at the gold content, one car (Tenpo Oval) = $ 4.For this reason, after the opening of the country in 1859, a large number of oval coins were leaked overseas (Currency problems at the end of the Edo period).
1860 - 1871
Reduced gold content to make the gold-silver exchange ratio comparable to overseasMannobu ovalWas issued.Until thenTenpo OvalSince one piece will be accepted as a three-car one-half red, the value of both based on the Mannobu oval is one-third of the conventional value, and one car = $ 1 based on either gold and silver.Even after the Meiji Restoration, the new government inherited the monetary system of the Shogunate, but due to the deterioration of credit due to the mass issuance of banknotes, the price was about $ 3 per car around 1.

1871-1945 (Birth of the Yen-Before the War-During the War)

1871 - 1897 Birth of a circle
May 1871, 4 (Meiji 5) "New coin regulations”(Meiji 4th Daijo-kan Declaration No. 267)YenHas come to be officially used.The contents of this ordinance are as follows.
  1. 1.5 grams of pure gold is used as yen, one-hundredth of yen is used as money, and one-tenth of money is used as money.
  2. Gold coins are the standard, and 1-yen gold coins are stipulated as having a quantity of 25.72 grains, a grade of 10/9, and a pure gold amount of 23.15 grains = 0.4 匁 = 1.5 grams.
  3. The previous one is nominally equivalent to the new currency of 1 yen.
  4. Cast 1 yen silver coin as a trading currency.Trade silverThe exchange ratio is 100 yen for the standard gold coin for every 101 yen.
On the other hand, the amount of US dollars decided in 1837 was 1 grains and the amount of pure gold was 25.8 grains.As a result, the dollar / yen exchange rate when the yen was born was a little over 23.22 yen = 1 yen.[56][57].
However, a large amount of gold coins will flow out under the trade deficit, and gold coin casting will decline.[Note 2]On the other hand, the casting of silver coins has increased.[Note 2], In 1878 (Meiji 11), the system became a bimetallism system to allow silver coins, which were originally limited to trade use, to be used domestically, but only silver coins and silver convertible banknotes are used in the city. In this situation, it became a silver standard system.At the same time, the international price of silver also fell, and the actual value of the silver-based yen was about half that of gold.
In addition,1877Occurred inSouthwest WarInflation started with the issuance of a large amount of fiat money in order to cover the war costs, and at the same time the yen depreciated.1894By that time, it was about 1 dollar = 2 yen.
1897 - 1917 Established a full-scale gold standard
Sino-Japanese warOver 3800 million £ of compensation, etc.[Note 3]As a reserve in 1897Gold standardThe banknotes issued to raise the war expenses for the Satsuma Rebellion were collected, and the circulation of domestic silver coins was stopped.At this time,Monetary Law (Meiji 30 Law No. 16)The average price was changed to 0.75g = 1 yen, and the gold coins (1,2,5,10,20 yen gold coins) issued when the New Currency Act came into effect were 2,4,10,20,40, respectively. The value was doubled to 20 yen and it was accepted.For the next 100 years, it stabilized at 49.875 yen = XNUMX dollars (normal price).
1917 - 1930 Withdrawal from the gold standard during World War I and the search for a ban on gold
Started in 1914World War IIn the midst of this, the European powers stopped converting money one after another, and in 1917.AmericaJapan also stopped converting money, following the stoppage of converting money.After the war, the Western powers returned to the gold standard, but Japan suffered economic turmoil due to the postwar recession in 1920 and 1923.Great Kanto EarthquakeThe yen fell to around 100 yen = 40 dollars due to the excess imports.After thatGold banIn preparation for the (return to the gold standard), austerity measures were taken in preparation for the appreciation of the yen, so the price rose to 100 yen = 49 dollars. Of yearShowa financial crisisThe depression that originated in 1928Zhangsaku bomb murder caseIt was postponed due to the resignation of the Cabinet over the processing of.
There was also a debate over the average price when returning to the gold standard.There was a debate over whether to return to the gold standard with the old average price of 100 yen = 49.875 dollars legally or the new average price of 100 yen = 40-44 dollars by devaluing the yen according to the actual situation. From the aspect of prestige to maintain the value of the yen currency and the aspect of disliking the revision of the law necessary for changing the price, the intention was to return to the old price.
1930 - 1931 Gold ban
Hamaguchi CabinetUnder the old price on January 1930, 1Gold banWas carried out.However, in October 1929Dark thursdayOriginated inWorld DepressionAs the ban on gold was lifted, Japanese gold flowed overseas, mainly to the United States.In addition, while the currencies of other countries that left the gold standard due to the depression fell, the yen that maintained the conversion became relatively expensive.However, speculators who saw that the yen would crash if the conversion could not be maintained eventually[Note 4]Run to buy dollars usingDollar buying case), Waiting for Japan to leave the gold standard.
1931 - 1945 Withdrawal from the gold standard, to the managed currency system
1931 Britain stopped the gold standard and succeeded HamaguchiWakatsuki CabinetからSeiyukai OfInuyo CabinetWhen the government changed to, Japan also withdrew from the gold standard and stopped converting banknotes to gold.As a result, the yen depreciated at a stretch, and in the summer of 1932, the yen depreciated significantly to around 100 yen = $ 30, and by the end of 1932, it fell to around 100 yen = $ 20, and prices rose.Behind the depreciation of the yen is not just the impact of the suspension of convertible goldManchurian Incident-First Shanghai IncidentThere is also a situation in which Japan's credibility has been lost.On the other hand, the depreciation of the yen had a positive effect on exports, and exports from Japan expanded and the domestic economy recovered.DumpingJapan was banished from the world economy and was in a difficult situation as the great powers suffering from the recession moved to block the economy while being criticized worldwide. In 1941, it will be about 1 yen per dollar, and it will enter the Pacific War.

1945-1973 (fixed exchange rate after the war)

1945 - 1949
太平洋戦争敗戦直後の1945年9月、軍用交換相場は1ドル=15円となった。その後の急速なインフレにより、1947年3月に1ドル=50円、1948年7月に1ドル=270円、1949年には1ドル = 360円になり、この為替相場が司令部の覚書によって日本政府に通達された。
Regarding the devaluation to 360 yen, on April 1949, 4, he oversaw Japan's economic activities.Joseph Dodge Hayato IkedaIn response to the proposal to the Minister of Finance, "In the budget for 24, the subsidy for imports and exports was cut significantly, but at that time I tried to calculate by imagining the rate of 1 dollar = 330 yen." "I know it's virtual, but I think the real rate of $ 1 = 330 yen is very tight, and I have to wait until the second half of this year at the earliest until I see the effect of the Dodge budget. I don't know. For me, the rate is, at best, 1 dollar = 350 yen. "As a result, it is said that 1 dollar = 360 yen was adjusted by the meeting between Dodge and Ikeda.[58].
This discussion was not announced, but the story was leaked from the Dodge side, and it was published in the morning edition of April 4.UPINew as Washington DenExchange rateTheMay 4When it came out from, it was just a blue sky for all Japanese and the people of the Occupation Army.In fact, from April 4th, 25 dollar = 1 yen suddenly realized[59].
On September 9th of this yearBritish poundIs $ 4 3CentWas significantly devalued to $ 2.The Japanese side goes to IkedaHeitaro InagakiMinister of International Trade and Industry,Takayoshi AokiHeadquarters for Economic Stability,Naoto ImandaThe governors of the Bank of Japan and others gathered and consulted, but in the four to five months since the implementation of the Dodge Plan, the stable effect has appeared more than expected, and everyone is beginning to feel confident that it will be possible to do this for 4 dollar = 5 yen. After all, I decided not to request a change in the rate, so the rate was fixed for a long time.[59].
1949 - 1971August 8 yen Fixed rate era
Japan isBretton Woods regimeUnder 1 dollar = 360 yenFixed exchange rateIt's time for.
Post-warAmerica TheCold WaramongWestBecome a world leader and prosper economicallyDollar Base currencyIt became. In the 1960sVietnam WarInflation has progressed due to huge spending on the dollar, and the dollar has become uneasy.Dollar anxiety19718 month 15 dayNixon shockSurfaced with.
197112 month - 1973First half Smithsonian system
After the Nixon shockSmithsonian AgreementThe devaluation of the dollar was decided at, and 1 dollar = 308 yen.

1973- (Floating exchange rate system)

19734 Floating exchange rateTransition to
DollarFixed exchange rate systemIn April 1973, Japan became difficult to maintain.Floating exchange rateMoved to[Note 5]..Immediately after the introduction of the floating exchange rate system, the yen appreciated to the 1 yen level per dollar, but in the fall of 260.Oil shockIt returned to around 1 dollar = 300 yen (emergency dollar), and it became a stable era for a while until the end of 1976.
1977 - 1978End
Around this time, the yen appreciated (mini-depression) and exceeded 1 yen per dollar for the first time. By the end of 200, the dollar temporarily exceeded 1978 yen.
1978End- 1985
America'sCarter administrationIn addition to the dollar defense policy belowIran revolutionConcerns about oil crisis due to progressUSSR OfInvasion of AfghanistanThe dollar strengthened again, and in 1980 the yen depreciated to around 1 yen per dollar.After that, it remained at 250-200 yen for a while.
1985 - 1988End
In the fall of 1985Plaza agreementThe yen appreciated sharply due to the dollar depreciation policyYen recession) Has progressed.Immediately after the announcement of the Plaza Accord, the yen-dollar exchange rate soared by about 20 yen, and the yen exchange rate, which was in the 1985 yen range at the beginning of 250, temporarily exceeded 1986 yen at the end of 160.Since then, the yen-dollar exchange rate has continued to hit record highs, and in February 1987.Louvre AccordAlthough it was agreed to stop the weakening of the dollar, the dollar weakened for a while and rose to the 1 yen level per dollar.
In Japan, while the export industry was hit by the sharp appreciation of the yen, a surplus phenomenon occurred due to the unusual ultra-low interest rate policy (at that time) to avoid the appreciation of the yen.Those funds lead to investment in land and stocksBubble economyHeaded for.At this time,OPECWith weakeningCrude oil priceThe domestic economy has become less susceptible to the effects of crude oil prices, along with the appreciation of the yen.
1989 - 1990Beginning
The yen-dollar exchange rate began to depreciate and fell from the 120-yen level to around 160 yen.Around this time, while Japan was heading toward the height of the bubble economy, globallyCold WarIt's also a time when the times are coming to an end,Tiananmen Incident,Eastern European Revolution,Berlin Wall CollapseA big event in history was also in progress.
1990 - 1995April super-strong yen
Gulf crisisAlthough there were short-term ups and downs, the yen remained strong in the long term. Stock prices in the Tokyo market, which peaked at the end of 1989, began to plummet in 1990, and the bubble economy began to fade.While foreign investment and imports contracted, exports remained strong and the yen strengthened.1994For the first time, the dollar broke through the 1 yen mark,1995May 4After 9:79 am, it recorded 75 yen and the momentary dollar was below 1 yen.
In the early 90's, when public works were increasing as a measure against the recessionExchange rateWas rising.After that, the exchange rate fell when the public works were being reduced.[60].
1995 - 1998Summer:
Great Hanshin-Awaji EarthquakeIt was piled up until thenYen carry tradePosition was canceled and the yen once became super strong[61][62].
The yen depreciated from a super-strong yen.As a result of the agreement and adjustment between Japan and the United States, the dollar was temporarily corrected to 1 yen, but it suddenly fell by 100 yen.Furthermore, in the fall of 20, the dollar temporarily dropped to the 1998 yen level (1 yen on August 140).In Japan, after the burst of the bubble economyBad debtVarious problems such as bankruptcy of financial institutions and financial institutions surfaced, and in the fall of 1997, the situation became critical, such as the bankruptcy of major securities companies and banks.Also, outside Japan1997Of summerAsian currency crisis,1998Of summerRussian financial crisisSuch an incident was happening.
1998autumn - 2000
When the yen depreciated, it suddenly rolled back, and in October 1998Japan Long-Term Credit BankBy the time it went bankrupt, it had exceeded the 1 yen level per dollar. When the zero interest rate policy was introduced in February 120, the yen continued to fall for a while, but from the latter half of the same year, the yen appreciated sharply again and rose to the 1999 yen level by the beginning of 2.
On the other hand, against the euro, 2000 euro = 10 yen on October 26, 1, the highest ever since the birth of the euro in January 88.87.
2001 - 2004
2001 yearsAmerican terrorist attacksFinancial marketWas confused, and the yen exchange rate plummeted in conjunction with the collapse of the dollar and US stocks.2002By the beginning, the price had dropped to the 1 yen level per dollar.After that, the yen exchange rate picked up as the economy overcame Izanagi began in Japan, and by the second half of 130, it had risen and remained at around 2002 yen.2003In 5 monthResona GroupWhen the government decided to provide public support, the yen was bought at once and soared, rising to nearly 2004 yen in early summer 100.
2004 - 2007Summer:
Since 2004, the yen has been depreciating.In particular, it has been introduced since 1999Zero interest rate policySpurs more,Yen carry tradeAs a result of the trend of accelerating yen sales, the dollar recorded the 2007 yen level for the first time in several years in July 7.As the yen became cheaper than the real economy, a bubble of yen depreciation dependent on external demand occurred in Japan, although it was medium-sized, and helped the economy recover.
2007Autumn The return of the strong yen era
The yen depreciated to a stronger yen.American in summerSubprime loan problemが明るみに出ると一気にドル売りが進行し、8月上旬には1ドル=112円台と1日に5円前後も値を上げることもあった。その後もドルに連動しながら時に乱高下を繰り返しながらも上昇は止まらず、2008年3月にはついに約13年ぶりに1ドル=2ケタ台を記録、3月17日には95円台を記録した。
After that, it rebounded to the 100-yen level, but as a result of the yen carry trade being unwound due to the simultaneous global stock price depreciation that occurred in October, the Japanese yen was bought by elimination and returned to the double-digit level.After that, it exceeded 10 yenMay 12Rised to the $ 1 = 87 yen level.
On the other hand, against the euro, 2008 euro = 7 yen on July 23, 1, the lowest ever since January 169.93 when the euro was born.
2009
In 2009, the yen exchange rate was mainly in the 90 yen range,May 9 OfLehman shockAt the financial summitHirohisa FujiiAs a result of the Minister of Finance saying that the yen would not be depreciated, the yen surged and plunged into the 26 yen range again on the following day.The yen exchange rate, which had reached the 80 yen level due to the prolonged ultra-low interest rate policy of the US Fed and the acceptance of the dollar's depreciation,May 11Dubai's government-affiliated company has announced that it will seek a grace period for repayment of huge borrowings due to poor cash flow.Dubai shockAs a result, the yen became self-reliant due to concerns about the economies of emerging countries, and the dollar was 1 yen, hitting the low 84 yen level for the first time in 81 years and 14 months.
2010
Since the financial crisis in Greece in 2010, the euro has fallen sharply and the dollar has been weakening, and only the Japanese yen has risen to the 2010 yen level in August 8, resulting in a blow to exporters. As the Japanese stock price fell in response, the Bank of Japan's governor announced a statement that he would watch carefully because he was concerned about the sharp appreciation of the yen.The president's talk has been held since the Lehman shock in September 1, and it was unusual for the president to respond to fluctuations in the yen and stock prices.
2010年9月15日には、15年ぶりに82円台後半まで上昇した円高の是正を目的として政府・日銀による為替介入が行われ、85円台後半まで値を戻したが、その後もジリ高は止まらず、10月14日の取引時間中に一時15年半ぶりとなる80円台後半まで円高が進んだ。
2011 Postwar highest price update
May 3Occurred inGreat East Japan EarthquakeAs a result, the yen strengthened sharply due to the observation that insurance companies will convert overseas assets into yen in preparation for payment and the increased demand for yen funds for settlement.[63][61][62],May 3In the New York foreign exchange market, the highest price was reached with a momentary price of 76 yen.After that, the price returned to the 25 yen level due to the cooperative intervention of Japan, the United States and Europe, and even after that, the trend of selling the yen became dominant due to anxiety about the Japanese economy after the earthquake and expectations for the economic recovery of the United States.May 4In the Tokyo foreign exchange market, the dollar was in the 1 yen range for the first time in half a year, and it was a self-depreciation against major currencies. There were more and more scenes to put on a stand[64].
May 8The Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan decided to intervene in the foreign exchange market for the first time in about four and a half months, and the Bank of Japan decided to further ease monetary policy.[65][66], US rating giant Standard & Poor's (S & P)May 8Has also announced that it has lowered the long-term credit rating of US Treasuries from "AAA (Triple A)" to "AA (Double A) Plus", which is one step lower.[67]After that, the yen continued to appreciate.
On October 10, the post-war high of 31 dollar = 1 yen was temporarily updated in the early morning (the lowest dollar).The government and the Bank of Japan implemented a foreign exchange intervention to sell yen and buy dollars in the foreign exchange market on the 75st.Although it temporarily dropped to 32 yen due to the yen selling intervention, the yen's appreciation did not stop even after the foreign exchange intervention, and at the end of 31, it soared to the 79 yen level per dollar.
On December 12, the yen appreciated for the first time in 30 years since 2001 and the euro depreciated in the foreign exchange market, the highest level since 10 when the euro began to circulate as cash. 2002 euro = around 1 yen.
2012 Super strong yen and weak euro
From March 2012May 11Until that time, the euro had historically weakened due to problems such as the European debt crisis.
On January 1, 9 euro = 1 yen at one time, the strong yen and weak euro level for the first time in 97 years since November 30.
Yen appreciation and dollar depreciation did not stopMay 5Again, the dollar rose to the 1 yen level.
On May 5, 31 euro = around 1 yen at one time, the strong yen and weak euro level for the first time in 96 years since November 48.
On June 6, the dollar recorded 1 yen on the New York foreign exchange market. Yen appreciation and dollar depreciation for the first time in three and a half months.
On July 7, 23 euro = 1 yen was recorded in the Oceania foreign exchange market. Yen appreciation and euro depreciation for the first time in 94 years since November 89.
Even in the fall of 2012, the yen appreciated and the dollar continued to depreciate, recording a dollar in the low 9 yen range in September.
Mid-February,Prime Minister Noda Dissolution of the House of RepresentativesThe yen gradually depreciated from the time when it was announced, and in mid-December.House of Representatives general electionFrom before and afterLDPOn December 12, the euro was around 28 yen and the dollar was around 1 yen, in anticipation of economic stimulus measures.
2013
Abe Cabinet AbenomicsRaiseDeflationOvercome,Inflation targetSet and boldmonetary easingThe yen will gradually fall against the dollar and euro as it announces monetary policy to take measures.
On January 1, the yen depreciated and the dollar strengthened, recording a dollar = 17 yen level. Yen depreciation and dollar high level for the first time in two and a half years since June 1. On February 90, the dollar was around 2010 yen and the euro was around 6 yen.
On May 5, the yen weakened and the dollar strengthened in the New York foreign exchange market, recording a dollar = 10 yen level. Yen depreciation and dollar high level since April 1, 100.
2014
September 9, 19 yen
On October 10, the yen depreciated and the dollar strengthened in the Tokyo foreign exchange market, recording a dollar = 1 yen level. Yen depreciation and dollar high level since August 1.
On December 12, the yen weakened and the dollar strengthened in the New York foreign exchange market, recording a dollar = 4 yen level. Yen depreciation and dollar high level since August 1.
2015
The high price of 2015 yen in January 1 started in a nearly heavenly state.The Swiss franc shock occurred on the 120.50th of the same month when the Swiss central bank stopped the foreign exchange intervention, which was capped at 15 euro = 1 Swiss francs.As a result, the US dollar fell below 1.20 yen.
After all, it recovered to 117 yen-118 yen after that, and it was a start to change.
Expectations for a rate hike in the US began to rise in February, and the US dollar strengthened to touch 2 yen in March.
In May, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said, "It is appropriate to raise interest rates within the year," and the price exceeded 124 yen.
However, the Greek problem occurred in July and the China shock occurred in August, involving stop loss and pushing back to the first half of 7 yen.
In November, the US dollar was repurchased in the latter half of 11-122 yen due to the employment situation in the United States being significantly higher than expected.
The employment situation in December also exceeded expectations, and a rate hike was finally announced on the 12th of the same month.
It has already been factored in for the market, and the "buy by rumor and sell by fact" has caused the US dollar to fall sharply and end.
As a result, although it fluctuated sharply for one year, the closing price in December did not fluctuate significantly from the opening price in January.
2016
The US dollar started at around 120 yen.
The crash continued from January, and the yen appreciated and the dollar weakened sharply in June, reaching the 1 yen level.
In particular, the unexpected Brexit shock of the UK, which overturned the expectation that the market "Britain will not leave the EU" on June 6, caused the market to plunge.
In particular, the pound plunged by 160 yen from 133 yen to 27 yen in a few hours, and there were a series of suicides and bankrupt companies in each country.
There was a Swiss franc shock last year as well, but this time it was bigger, especially in the turmoil of the market, as the pound is one of the world's five largest currencies.
Furthermore, it was said to be inferior on the 11th of November,Donald TrumpWon the US presidential election, creating further turmoil in the market.
After the election was confirmed, the US dollar surged from the 101-yen level to the 118-yen level due to expectations for the next president-elect Trump, who advocates America's first principle, and 17 yen rose in just about January.
2017
It started from the 118 yen level.
With the same crash start as last year, it fell to 4 yen in April and then recovered to the 108 yen level in May, but the market, which will fall to 5 yen again in June, is uncertain and has no direction. It became a continuous form. It recovered to the 114 yen level again in July, but it was pushed back again.
The market is becoming more uncertain due to the stagnation of the US economy and suspected involvement of Russia over the election of President Trump (Russian gate problem).On the other hand, the EU economy is on a recovery trend, and although it fell to the 4 yen level in April, it recovered to the 115 yen level in July.
The Australian economy was stable, and at one point it hit the 73-yen level due to the decline in the United States, but in July it exceeded the January price and hit the 7-yen level.
2018
In February, the Nikkei average renewed its rate of decline for the first time in a year due to the strong yen appreciation accompanying the rise and fall of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[68].
2019Or later
Since 2019, the market price has been around 105-110 yen.

footnote

[How to use footnotes]

注 釈

  1. ^ It seems that this was used in the early Showa period.[55].
  2. ^ a b Standard currencyGold coins and silver coinsFree castingThe number of castings depends on the amount of gold and silver brought to the Mint from the private sector in addition to the government reserve and the demand for coins, and the outflow of gold and the use of silver for settlement. It is copied.
  3. ^ Shimonoseki TreatyThen, the amount of compensation was set at 2 million silver (tail),Three countries interferenceReturned atLiaodong PeninsulaIn return for this, the reward was 3000 million cars and the amortization of Weihai defense costs was 150 million cars, resulting in 2 million silver cars.This is a considerable amountSovereign gold coins38,082,884 £ 15 Shillings 6.5 Pence converted and received as foreign specie.
  4. ^ Foreign exchange intervention in modern times.
  5. ^ Round up "The United States announced a 1973% devaluation of the dollar on April 4, 18, and in response to this, Japan also re-shifted to the floating exchange rate system on April 10, 4." I matched it.

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References

  • Kikuo Iwata "What is the Business?" Chikuma Shobo <Chikuma Primer New Book 94>, October 2008.ISBN 4-4806-8798-X.
  • Hidetomi Tanaka, "Deflationary Depression, The Great Sin of the Bank of Japan," Asahi Shimbun Publishing, May 2010.ISBN 4-0233-0813-7.
  • Hidetomi Tanaka (ed.), Koichi Hamada et al. "Will the Japanese Economy Revive?" Fujiwara Shoten, October 2013.ISBN 978-4-89434-942-1.
  • Yutaka Harada, Daiwa Institute of Research "Introduction to the Japanese Economy for New Adults" Mainichi Newspapers <Mainichi Business Books>, March 2009.ISBN 4-6205-3018-2.
  • 文藝 春秋"Showa History in Bungei Shunju" Volume 1988, Bungei Shunju, February 2.ISBN 4-16-362640-9.

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