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💴 | "High stock prices after the US presidential election" Is the jinx of the market applicable this year as well?


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Does the jinx of the "high stock prices after the US presidential election" apply this year as well?

 
If you write the contents roughly
The Democratic Party's public works project is historically well-known as the "New Deal Policy."
 

On November 11rd, the US presidential election will be held, which will greatly affect the Japanese economy and the whereabouts of stock prices.Kyowa aiming for reelection ... → Continue reading

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New Deal Policy

New Deal Policy(New Deal)British: New Deal) Is1930 eraToPresident of the United StatesFranklin Roosevelt World DepressionA series of went to overcomeEconomic policy.

New re-sowing policy[1]Or justNew DealAlso called[2].

Overview

Until then the New Deal policyAmericaThe classic that successive administrations have taken, with limited government intervention and economic policy in the marketLiberalismIt is a shift from a typical economic policy to a policy in which the government is actively involved in the market economy.Second World WarAfter資本主義It had a great influence on the national economic policy.

"For the first time in the worldJohn Maynard KeynesIt is said that he adopted the theory ofGeneral theory of employment, interest and moneyIs 1936Published in, and the New Deal policy has begun 1933Later than.The original plan is Japan, which quickly escaped from the Great Depression.Kosei TakahashiPolicy devised byOccasional rescue business) And most of them are common.

The policy name "New Deal" isMark Twain 1889Published in the novel "Connecticut Yankee of Arthur's CourtIs named after the policy implemented by the main character in[3].

History

Roosevelt declared in a pre-presidential radio election speech that "if he becomes president, he will return to pre-crisis price levels within a year."[4].

Roosevelt in 19333/4When he took office as president, the next day, despite Sunday, all domestic banks were closed based on the "Trading with the Enemy Law", and a radio speech was given to investigate the management situation of all banks within a week to ensure the safety of deposits. Promising to guarantee, the bank run was heading toward convergence.Roosevelt was bold immediately after becoming president in 1monetary easingThe credit crunch has stopped because of the[5].

Roosevelt immediately after the next 100 daysGrass-Steagal methodEnacted and fulfilled this promise (Federal Deposit Insurance CorporationWith the establishment ofSilver certificate separation[6]).

MoreCongressTo discuss new policies for economic recovery and job security in rapid succession, and to enact these in the first 100 days.[7].

さ ら に 1935ToSecond New DealAs a result, we made a shift from allowance benefits and livelihood protection to the unemployed to employment of the unemployed, and WPA (Public Works Promotion Bureau) EstablishedUnemployedMass employment and public facilities construction and public works projects throughout the United States.

ExternallyProtection tradeからFree tradeThe power to change tariff rates and conclude reciprocal tariffs with foreign countries was approved by the parliament.As an unusual project, the Works Progress Administration will implement it.Logarithmic tableProject (Mathematical Tables Project), And an attempt was made to improve the accuracy of the logarithmic table in the same project.This contributed to improving the accuracy of ballistic calculation and approximate calculation, and improved the accuracy of landing hits of the U.S. military during World War II.Manhattan planInImplosion lens(ZND theory) Was affected.

Pros and cons of policy

With these policies, the economy started to recover after 1933, starting in 1934.[8][9],Some policies, such as NIRA and AAA, have been unconstitutionalized by the Supreme Court to "inhibit fair competition."[10]..In addition, due to active financeInflationIn response to trends and rising government debtFiscal policy-Financial PolicyAs a result of the tightening of the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate temporarily rose again in 1937-1938.[11]. afterwards,Second World WarDue to the increase in munitions expenditure, which is the largest increase rate in the history of the United States, due to participation in the warUnited States economyAnd employment has recovered significantly from the depression and has expanded significantly.

After all, nominal GDP exceeded the 1929 value in 1941.[8], Real GDP exceeded 1929 value in 1936[9], The unemployment rate fell below the 1929 value in 1943.[12][13].

In the United States after the New Deal, federal spending and GDP ratios have increased[14], The federal government will have great authority to move public works and employment policies in the United States, and World War II will accelerate the strengthening and enormous power of the federal government, and the United States社会 保障Disseminated the policy.

Takeshi Nakano"President Roosevelt implements the'New Deal',deflationPolicy for escapeRegimeMade a big change.As a result, people react to the regime shiftInflationThe US economy has escaped from the depression as it began to act in anticipation of the crisis. "[15].

Milton Friedman"The period 1929-1933 and 1933-1941 should be considered separately. It was the bank holidays, the withdrawal from the gold standard, the gold and silver purchase plans, etc. that ended the Great Depression rather than the Great Depression. There is no doubt that it was a series of monetary policies. It was World War II and military spending that ended the Great Depression. "[16].

Hirofumi Uzawa"In the end, we entered World War II before we knew what the results and outcomes of the New Deal policy were."[17]..In addition, Uzawa said, "Friedman played a central role in the movement to deny all of the New Deal policy.Ronald ReaganDuring the administration, the New Deal policy was completely denied. "[18].

EconomistKoichi Yano"The New Deal was thought to have had a great effect on fiscal policy, but in subsequent research, it was a policy package that combined monetary and fiscal policy (Policy mix) Was effective. ””[19]..Yano said, "The US government raised taxes in 1937, and the Fed also tightened its finances, causing the economy to slump in 1938 and re-enter the recession. This is a historical lesson called" Failure in 1937. " Is. "[19].

EconomistRobert Lucas"By improving deposit insurance in 1934 and separating banks and securities under the Glass-Steagall Act, a financial regulation system was in place to prevent banks from taking excessive risks," he said. Prevented the recurrence of the Great Crisis for decades. "[20].

Financial Policy

EconomistChristina Romer"Most of the recovery in GDP during the Great Depression was brought about by monetary easing," published a paper.[21]. Ben BernankeSaid that the recovery from the Great Depression and the exit from deflation were contributed by the feasibility of monetary easing due to the suspension of the gold standard.[21].

Fiscal policy

EconomistHideomi Tanaka,Seiji Adachi"President Roosevelt's New Deal policy says that the scale of fiscal spending is around 5% of GDP.HooverIt hasn't changed much from the time of the president. "[22].

Christina Romer concludes from economic history studies that the New Deal's fiscal policy was ineffective.[23]..Rohmer stated in 1930 that an important lesson from the 1930s is that small fiscal stimuli have only small effects (One crucial lesson from the 2009s is that a small fiscal expansion has only small effects.)[24].. In 2013, "In my opinion, what we can learn from the Great Depression is that this theory [fiscal policy works if you try it] is confirmed by empirical grounds. When used in the 1930s. Fiscal policy is actually accelerating the recovery. The main problem is that fiscal policy has not been used much. "[25].

Paul Krugman"Some economists never forgot about the Great Depression and its implications. One of them is Christina Romer. Four years after the crisis began (4), good research on fiscal policy (most of which) Is on the rise (by young economists). Such studies generally support that fiscal stimulus is effective and suggest that large-scale fiscal stimulus should be provided.[26]"Especially when I read that I, Stiglitz, and Christina Romer argue that spending cuts in the face of a recession only make it worse, and that temporary spending increases are beneficial to recovery." I hope you don't think "this is their personal view", as Romer said in his recent speech on research on fiscal policy.

Evidence that fiscal policy is important is stronger than ever--fiscal stimulus helps the economy increase jobs, and trying to reduce its budget deficit will slow growth, at least in the short term. ..Yet, this evidence does not seem to be passed on to the legislative process.

We have to change that. "[27].

Robert Lucas criticized Romer's analysis as "a retrofit justification for policies that had already been decided for other reasons."[28].

Regarding Robert Lucas's view, Paul Krugman said, "The basis was the principle of'Ricardian equivalence', and by that claim, I do not know or forget the actual mechanism of that principle in the first place. I revealed that I had done it. "[29].

Naoki Komuro"Many of the New Deal policies were so revolutionary that they were subsequently unconstitutionalized by the Federal Supreme Court. President Roosevelt had no choice but to become a pro-Roosevelt lawyer. , Many had to take the tactic of appointing a Supreme Court judge and finally making a constitutional decision. In ordinary people's conversations, if you say "he is a new dealer", in prewar Japan, " He was a red man. " "Even if we take a policy to increase capital investment such as TVA (Tennessee Valley Authority), if we are opposed to the classical school (which was the overwhelming majority in the United States at that time), we will immediately stagger. If the government spending is drastically increased, the public finances will go bankrupt. "[30].

Hirofumi Uzawa said, "Ancien Régime desperately resists TVA in particular, and has filed numerous proceedings that" it is unconstitutional for the government to do the work that the private sector should do, "and the Federal Supreme Court also issued an unconstitutional judgment.As a result, in 1943, TVA changed its organization drastically and became a system in charge of regional development with the funds of the local government, and could barely maintain its appearance as social common capital. Market fundamentalists repeatedly criticized the TVA and the Banking Act and attempted to dismantle them. "[31].

Relationship with Keynes

Roosevelt himself was a fiscal balancer and was allegedly negative about deficit finance.[32]..Roosevelt is said to have adopted the fiscal policy proposed by Keynes.[33], Roosevelt himself denies it[32]..Roosevelt met Keynes only once in 1934, but said, "I couldn't understand it because of the statistics."[32]..Roosevelt, who had a direct dialogue with Keynes, is said to have cut off the story of Keynes's economic stimulus policy by issuing deficit-financing bonds as "a tremendous horror story."[34]..The New Deal policy has been implemented since 1933, and Keynes's "General theoryWas published in 1936[32].

Japan

One of the common senses of Japanese people after the war is that the Great Depression was caused by President Roosevelt.Keynesian typeThere is something that has recovered due to the fiscal policy of[35].

Hidetomi Tanaka said, "The prototype of today's understanding of Keynesian policy (the scenario of escape from the Great Depression by the New Deal policy and the de facto neglect of monetary policy) isShigeto TsuruWas disseminated by. "[36].

Economist Shigeto Tsuru said, "The fact that the two concepts of" national interest "," national defense "and" total employment, "were satisfied at the same time.Pacific WarIt was a good basis for the militant attitude leading up to the start. The'New Deal'policy thus led to the war. "[37]..Hidetomi Tanaka points out that "the origin of the claims that are still scattered today that the government's Keynesian fiscal policy led to war and that the war resolved the Great Depression" is due to Toru.[37].

footnote

  1. ^ "New Deal" means that parents redistribute cards in cards and other games, and that the government redistributes national wealth to the entire nation through new economic policies.
  2. ^ "History of Junior High School Society" (Educational publicationCo., Ltd.Published on January 10, 1998/1.Ministry of EducationCertifiedtextbook..On p.243 of junior high school social studies), it is stated that "this policy is called the New Deal" and "New Social History" (Tokyo BooksLtd.Ministry of educationCertifiedtextbook..For junior high school social studies.(Published on February 16, 2004) p.2 states, "In the United States, the policy was changed from the free economy up to that point, and under President Roosevelt, it was called the New Deal (new deal) from 10. "I took a policy.", "Detailed World History B" (Co., Ltd.)Yamakawa Publishing.Ministry of educationCertifiedtextbook..For high school geography and history department. (Published March 2004, 16) p.3 states that "these series of policies are called the New Deal."In addition, "History of Social Studies Junior High School Students" (Co., Ltd.Imperial Shoin.Ministry of educationCertifiedtextbook..For junior high school social studies.(Published January 20, 2008) p.1 describes the "New Deal Policy".
  3. ^ "Fun-read English-American fantasy literature" page 61
  4. ^ Edited by Hideomi Tanaka, "Can the Japanese Economy Revive?" Fujiwara Shoten, 2013, pp. 119-120.
  5. ^ Nobuo Ikeda, Courage to Give Up Hope-Economics of Stagnation and Growth, Diamond, 2009, p. 141.
  6. ^ Susan E. Kennedy, The Banking Crisis of 1933 (1973)
  7. ^ Since then, the new president's "what to do in the first 100 days" has become the most important promise in the presidential election. "Honeymoon periodThe "= 100-day rule" is derived from this.
  8. ^ a b US Department of Commers> Bureau of Economic Analysis> National Economic Accounts> Interactive Table> Table Selection> Table 1.1.5. Gross Domestic Product
  9. ^ a b US Department of Commers> Bureau of Economic Analysis> National Economic Accounts> Interactive Table> Table Selection> Table 1.1.6. Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars
  10. ^ Tetsuji Kawamura "Modern American Economy" Yuhikaku
  11. ^ The Economist: Lessons from the 1930s: Pitfalls in the Way
  12. ^ US Department of Labor> Bureau of Labor Statistics> Publications> Compensation and Working Conditions> Compensation from before World War I through the Great Depression
  13. ^ US Department of Labor> Bureau of Labor Statistics> Subject Areas> Unemployment> National Unemployment Rate (from the Current Population Survey)> Labor Force Statistics including the National Unemployment Rate> Tables> Annual Average Data> Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population, 1940s to date[Broken link]
  14. ^ US Whitehouse> Office of Management and Budget> The Budget> Historical Tables> Fiscal Year 2012 Archived August 2011, 7, at the Wayback Machine.
  15. ^ Takeshi Nakano "Regime change-The idea of ​​reversal to break through the depression” NHK Publishing <NHK Publishing New Book>, 2012, 21 pages.
  16. ^ R. E.Parker, "How did the 11 economists who saw the Great Depression live?" Translated by Shigeyoshi Miyagawa, Chuokeizai-sha, 2005, pp. 60-61.
  17. ^ Hirofumi Uzawa and Katsuto Uchihashi, "The Beginning Future Is New Economics Possible?" Iwanami Shoten, 2009, p. 5.
  18. ^ Hirofumi Uzawa and Katsuto Uchihashi, "The Beginning Future Is New Economics Possible?" Iwanami Shoten, 2009, pp. 24-25.
  19. ^ a b Why are reflationists opposed to the consumption tax hike? / Koichi Yano / Applied StatisticsSYNODOS-Synodos-August 2014, 12
  20. ^ Ninth "Is Economics Useful (Part XNUMX)-Lucas's Insight"Canon Global Strategy Research Institute (CIGS) October 2009, 10
  21. ^ a b Edited by Hideomi Tanaka, "Can the Japanese Economy Revive?" Fujiwara Shoten, 2013, p. 121.
  22. ^ Tanaka Hideomi, Seiji Adachi, "Heisei University Stagnation and Showa Depression-Introduction to Practical Economics", NHK Publishing <NHK Books>, 2003, p. 66.
  23. ^ Nobuo Ikeda, Courage to Give Up Hope-Economics of Stagnation and Growth, Diamond, 2009, p. 145.
  24. ^ "Lessons from the Great Depression for Economic Recovery in 2009" Christina D. Romer March 9, 2009
  25. ^ "Lessons from the Great Depression for Policy Today" Christina D. Romer March 11, 2013
  26. ^ Paul Krugman, "End the Depression Quickly," Hayakawa Publishing, 2012, pp. 145-146.
  27. ^ Paul Krugman, "End the Depression Quickly," Hayakawa Publishing, 2012, pp. 302-303.
  28. ^ Paul Krugman, "Quickly End the Depression," Hayakawa Publishing, 2012, p. 145.
  29. ^ Paul Krugman, "Quickly End the Depression," Hayakawa Publishing, 2012, p. 144.
  30. ^ Naoki Komuro, "Economic Principles for the People <1 Bubble Great Resurrection>", Kappa Business, 1993, p. 47.
  31. ^ Hirofumi Uzawa and Katsuto Uchihashi, "The Beginning Future Is New Economics Possible?" Iwanami Shoten, 2009, p. 5.
  32. ^ a b c d Nobuo Ikeda, Courage to Give Up Hope-Economics of Stagnation and Growth, Diamond, 2009, p. 143.
  33. ^ Nobuo Ikeda, Courage to Give Up Hope-Economics of Stagnation and Growth, Diamond, 2009, p. 140.
  34. ^ Tetsuo Taka "Economic Thought in Life-Introduction to Evolutionary Economics-" Chishin Publishing Institute, First Edition, 2007, p. 81.
  35. ^ Hideomi Tanaka, "Learning Economic Policy in History," SoftBank Creative <SoftBank Shinsho>, 2006, page 102.
  36. ^ Hideomi Tanaka, "Learning Economic Policy in History," SoftBank Creative <SoftBank Shinsho>, 2006, page 109.
  37. ^ a b Hideomi Tanaka, "Learning Economic Policy in History," SoftBank Creative <SoftBank Shinsho>, 2006, page 108.

Related matters

Public works

Public worksWhat is (Koukyojikyo)?Central government,Local governmentBut,MarketDepending onthe amount OfSupplyIs hard to hope forGoods-ServiceI will provide aJewelry businessThat. It's called Public Works in English, but in the UKIndustrial revolutionWhile the project was carried out with the approval of the government, in other Western European countries and colonies, government-led public works development was carried out.public investment(This isBritish: Public investment). In general, service focusPublic utilityDistinguished from.

Overview

Public works and public investment

A project carried out by a government or local government to help people's lives is called a public project[1].. Private demand fallsrecessionWhenneedTo boost the economyEconomic policyIs also one of[1].Construction Government BondThere is also a business that uses. In addition, investing tax on what is expected to be national interest in the future is called public investment.[2].

It is said that production to the optimum amount will not be done if it is left to the private sector, such as social capital such as highways and railways.Market failureThe purpose is to produce public goods in whichinfrastructure(Social capital) Used in the sense of maintenance itself (hencePublic worksIs often equated with, but originallyEconomicsas well as the politicsIs the concept of.

Economic stimulus

Market economyIt is said that direct and indirect can be expected in the region by developing social capital that is used by an unspecified number of people who are considered to be difficult to supply by themselves.

unemploymentPolicies to increase public works and stimulate the economy to reduceFiscal policyinclude. Increase in public worksEffective demandHas the effect of creatingJohn Maynard KeynesAlready in the 1920s, the advocacy of the need and effectiveness of governments to use public works to reduce unemployment and support the economy during the recession[3].

DirectEconomic effectsFor example, constructionneedDue to material consumption andemploymentIt is said that there is a flow effect such as increasing the flow rate, and as an indirect economic effect, for example, the distribution network is rationalized by the improvement of the transportation network, or the urban infrastructure is improved to encourage companies to enter , It is pointed out that the stock effect that the developed social capital leads to promotion of regional economic activities. In the old AmericaNew Deal PolicyAnd in GermanyControlled economyIn various placesBusinessThere was an effect of economic recovery during the slump,economistIt has been said that the economic ripple effect is high.

EconomistFumio Otake“The use of taxes to expand public investment and services means that income from high income earnersReallocationIt is also a policy to reduce the disparity by implementing the policy of eliminating the inefficiency of unemployment."[4].. Otake said, “The only way to stop the vicious cycle of a long-term recession is to hire unemployed people through public investment and public services. However, it does not make sense to create wasteful goods and services, and then directly to the unemployed. "You don't waste your resources if you give it money. Public investment to increase production capacity is meaningless."[5].

Public works tend to be a hotbed for politicians to guide profits,Box administrationIt is easy to cause harmful effects such as being ridiculed. It is important to identify cost-effectiveness. In addition, the target of public investment isconstructionThere is a criticism that it is prone to bloating the construction industry because it is inclined to.

UFJ Research InstituteThe Research Department points out that "the effect of boosting the growth rate by expanding public investment is only temporary."[6].Sanwa Research Institute"In order to maintain positive growth, only local builders will increase the number of jobs even if they continue to use public works "balamaki," and many say that "the positive effects on the economy will spread." It is not something that can be realized for me."[7].. EconomistSatoshi Matsubara“Public works will enrich the industries such as construction and cement, but the ripple effect to other industries will be small. In addition, we often buy machinery used in public works from abroad or rely on foreign workers. Therefore, it does not lead to domestic economic stimulus."[8].

EconomistYoichi Takahashi"In a political sense, tax cuts are fairer than public works. Public works provide benefits to certain vendors, but tax cuts are made for everyone."[9].

Yoshiyasu Ono said, "Insignificant public works and tax cuts are essentially the same. It's better to leave unemployment alone than to dig holes and fill them, or to do public works that cause environmental damage." ”[10].. Ono says that reducing unemployment by increasing public investment and public services that increase satisfaction is the best measure against recession.[5].

EconomistMotoshige Ito"In the real world, wasteful public works such as digging are unnecessary. The same stimulating effect can be expected from socially meaningful spending such as road construction and research and development."[11].

EconomistNorihisa Iwata"Private investment-induced public investment does not have the one-off effect of temporarily increasing the income of civil engineering workers, but has the effect of social capital development combined with private capital to generate permanent income. ”[12].

Multiplier effect

Public investment not only increases demand by itself, but is consumed by those who earn income from public investment, which in turn creates further consumption.Multiplier effectThere is[13].. The cost of public works includes the cost of purchasing land, and purchasing land does not add value and therefore does not directly affect GDP.[14].

Takuro Morinaga"It is true that the effect of public investment on economic expansion is declining. It is clear from the examination by economists at the present time (2002). However, public works are immediately effective as an economic measure. Is true. At least there is an effect of the total investment."[15].

EconomistPaul KrugmanSays that the multiplier effect of public investment used to build social capital such as road and dam construction is 1.5th.[16].

economist OfYasushi Harada"In recent years (2009-2014) using macroeconomic models, research results show that 1 trillion yen in public works will increase GDP by almost 1 trillion yen. Increasing government spending will increase GDP by that amount. This means that the multiplier is 1, and it is not as effective as the multiplier. Furthermore, this is the result of the monetary policy being activated, and if the monetary policy is not activated, the multiplier is 1 Will be below"[17].

Fumio Otake points out that "useless public investment was considered to be an economic stimulus only because of the assumption in the GDP calculation that the government's expenditure would increase the benefit by 100%."[4].

EconomistYoshiyasu OnoIs "National accountsThen, public investment is recorded as income. This is misleading and it is only believed that public investment has an income-increasing effect. The real effect of public investment is only the value of the product. The problem is that only the multiplier effect on numbers is emphasized, and the criticism side also has a small multiplier effect. The consumption function was questionable for its validity and was the basis for the apparent effect of the multiplier effect."[18].

EconomistTakashi Oshio“In order for the multiplier effect of public investment to be exerted, the level of public investment once raised must be maintained thereafter. If the level of public works is restored to the original level when the economy is not in an upward trend, However, public investment will be a factor in depressing the economy."[19].

Balance with finances

Norihisa Iwata points out, "If public investment made by current debt increases future GDP, we can reduce the ratio of cumulative balance to GDP."[20].

Yasushi Harada said, “The effect of raising the real GDP of public works depends on the nominal spending decided by the budget divided by the price index of construction. If the construction price increases, the effect of public works will be reduced. "Public works do not support the economy and reduce economic efficiency. If the budget deficit is a problem, then public works should not be increased."[21].

EconomistHeizo Takenaka"It is said that "it will increase public works because of the recession," but not that "it will reduce public works because of the boom. Once you get a job from the government, it will turn into a vested interest and reduce public works Then there is a strong repulsion."[22].

EconomistYoichi TakahashiIs "Cost-effectivenessIs worth doing for public works projects in which is positive.”[23].. Takahashi points out, "For public works, it is necessary to calculate the additional costs (costs) and benefits when completed".[24].

Daiwa Institute of Research"If we underestimate the role of public works and continue excessive fiscal austerity, we will have a shortage of social capital stock even if the finances are sound, which will reduce the quality of life of the people and the ability to supply the economy. It is important to focus on the appropriateness of scale and improvement of quality, without discussing only aspects.”[25].

Mizuho Research Institute"A mere reduction in public investment only brings deflation to the economy," he said.[26].

Industrial structure

National/regionalIndustrial structureThere is also criticism that it may distort the.

When the government constructs roads and buildings, employment opportunities are created mainly in the construction industry, but measures to expand employment through these public investments have already been taken.CompetitivenessIt has also been pointed out that the adverse effect of rigidifying the economic structure is due to the fact that government spending supports the weakened industry.[27].

Takashi Oshio said, "If the government increases public investment, private companies' capital investment may be restrained. In a serious recession, such a case is not possible, but if there is a shortage of construction materials and workers. It is pointed out that[28].

Relationship between benefit and burden

Yoshiyasu Ono said, "In the case of public works, the public is dissatisfied with the benefits, even if they take it for granted. Public works tend to feel lost because the relationship between benefits and costs is not clear." Has pointed out[29].

PFI

PFI(Private Finance Initiative) is a business method of constructing, maintaining, and managing public facilities by utilizing the funds and management ability of the private sector.[30].. It started in the UK in 1992, and in Japan, the "Law Concerning Promotion of Improvement of Public Facilities by Utilizing Private Funds" (PFI Law) was enforced in September 1999.[30].

History of public works

Public works have existed since ancient times, for example, the cost of public works was the largest in Egypt.[31].. In the Kingdom of Egypt every year from July to OctoberNile RiverFlooding of the country caused a large number of people to be mobilized and salaries (grains) provided for the restoration.[31].. In ancient Egypt, many people were mobilized for the construction of pyramids and temples, but not only to show the strength of the royal power, but also to prevent unemployment and security for the people during the flood period of the Nile.[31].

Even in ancient RomeAppia Road,ColosseumLarge-scale public works such as construction of[31].. Rome has an electoral system, and candidates were asked to commit various public works projects.[32].. In the Roman Empire, military and public works costs were enormous in order to maintain the expanded territory, and during the five-century Emperor of the 2nd century, about half of the national finance was dedicated to military-related matters.[32].. In the Roman Empire, tax increases under various names were repeated to make up for this, but this led to the decline of commerce and industry, and it became difficult to maintain the military in the 3rd century, which led to the invasion of the Germans.[32].

Public works in Japan

In Japan, government agencies, local governments and local governments,Special corporationAnd so onfinanceUse funds to do it. The costs are covered by the government, local governments, FILP bonds, etc.Finance LawArticle 4 allows the issuance of construction bonds to cover public works expenses.

In addition, in economic statistics "Public works expenses"When"Public fixed capital formationFor the differencePublic fixed capital formationchecking ...

Trends in public works expenses and public fixed capital formation

Second World WarAfterJapanese GovernmentbyinfrastructureMaintenance was essential to revive Japan, which was scorched after the defeat[33].

Looking at the public expenditure related to general expenditure of the Japanese government,High growth periodIn the same manner as the other items, the annual increase was 10% or more, despite the nominal value.Bubble burstLater, in August 1992, the total project cost for the 8 years after the comprehensive economic policy reached 9 trillion yen, and the breakdown was public project cost of 106 trillion yen.[34].. In 1993, public investment, which used to be in the low 30 trillion yen range, rose to the 40 trillion yen level, increasing from 7% to 8% of GDP.[34].

In Japan's public fixed capital formation by GDP ratio,Yen recessionLater 1978 to 1979 (Public investment economy)WhenBubble burstLater 1993 to 1997 (Kanful economy),Financial crisisAfter 1999 (IT bubble) Was as high as 6%[35].

1990s, 1995 and 1996, etc.Economic expansion(Kanful economy), public investment is increasing[36].

Japan's public investment to GDP ratio was about 1980% in 10, but in 1997Hashimoto administrationSharply reduced due to austerity[37].

Bubble periodThe cost of public works, which was around 8 trillion yen, reached 1998 trillion yen at the peak of 14.9, and Japan's public fixed capital formation as a percentage of GDP reached 1990% at the peak of the 6.6s. About twice the level of the country[38].

From 2002 (FY 14), reforms have been adoptedKoizumi CabinetDue to this series of measures, public works related expenses continued to decrease every year. The government made a cabinet decision in July 2006.Bone policy2006」に盛り込んだ歳出入改革案においても、今後5年間で1-3%ずつ削減していく方針が明記されていた。公的固定資本形成は、2001年度には32兆円であったが、2006年度には22兆円と5年間で10兆円削減された[39].

As a result of the reduction of public works under the administration of both the LDP and the Democratic Party since 2000, the ratio of public fixed capital formation to GDP was 2010% in 3.2 (Germany 1.6%, UK 2.5%, US 2.5%, 3.1% in France), almost half.[38].. Among developed countries, government spending as a percentage of GDP decreased as did the United States (as of 2010)[40].

According to the July comprehensive construction statistics released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism on September 2014, 9, “Undigested construction” reached a record high of ¥17 billion, the highest since January 7 when we began collecting statistics. Became many[41].

Disaster prevention by public works

Great East Japan Earthquake

IwateFudai Village,Hirono TownWell then, M9.0Great East Japan EarthquakeEven at a height of 15.5mFudai Sluice(Completed in 1984)Ota Nabe Seawall(Fudai Village) and the 12m-high seawall (Honocho) repelled the tsunami without being destroyed and protected the precious human lives and property of those areas.[42][43][44].. There are no private houses in Fudai Village that were damaged by the 2011 Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake, and there were no deaths.[45].. Fudai Sluice itself was accused of being 15.5 meters too high at the time of project planning, but it was the village chief at the time.Komura Wamura[45]Did not give over "15 meters or more" and spared financial expenditure for disaster prevention[46].

Heavy rain in northern Kyushu

Heavy rain in northern Kyushu in mid-July 2012So, in Takeda City, Oita Prefecture, there was no damage at the site where the dam was completed,Tamaki RiverThe city was flooded downstream and flooded over a wide area. Twenty-one houses were completely demolished, 21 were partially destroyed, 15 were flooded above the floor, and 103 were flooded below the floor, and bridges were also washed away. Due to this heavy rain, the area between Bungo Takeda Station and Miyaji Station was interrupted until August 41, the year after the heavy rain.

LDP OfSadakazu TanigakiAnd the same city as the groundSeijiro EtoIt is,Business sortingArgued that the postponement of the Tamarai dam construction was the cause of the flood,[47],Democratic Party OfMasako OkawaraPointed out in the House of Councilors settlement committee on July 7 that same year that it was scheduled to be completed in 30 from the beginning and the dam was not completed even if the self-government government continued.[48].

またPublic interest group corporation corporationJapan Society of Civil EngineersSurvey of Uozumi Dam (Takeda adjustment pond weir) It has been pointed out that driftwood may have accumulated on the piers of Azo Shinbashi and Tamaki Shinbashi and raised the water level. As a result of the investigation, it is estimated that the flood caused a decrease in the cross-sectional area of ​​running water due to driftwood.[49].

Sediment disaster in Hiroshima city due to heavy rain in August 26

Due to the heavy rainfall in August 2014, a large-scale sediment disaster occurred in Asakita Ward of Hiroshima City. The government has decided toSabo damI admitted that none of them were completed. It has been pointed out that damage could have been minimized if the dam was completed[50].. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism says that 2010% of the 89000 sabo dam plans in Japan are completed in 22.[50].. It has also been pointed out that local governments have delayed evacuation advice to residents.[51].

Problems in Japan

Heizo Takenaka explained that the reasons for the increase in Japanese public works were as follows: 1) Some members of the parliament continued to scramble to builders by using the expectations of the people as an economic measure, and 2) That there was nothing in society, 3) A huge amount of money from the 1980s to the 1990sCurrent account balanceI list three things that I was in the black[52].

EconomistToshihiro Ibori"Because Japan's public works have become useless since the 1990s and the budget deficit has expanded, the gap between benefits and burdens has progressed," he said.[53].

Takeshi Nakano TheDeflationIt is calling for the need for fiscal mobilization, including measures, and it has become an aging investment destination.bridge,道路,Sewer pipe, Reconstruction of the disaster area,ShockproofReinforced,Flood damageMeasures for the futureInfrastructureEmphasizes that there are many. Nevertheless, modern Japan neglects what it should do, such as renewal investment for aging infrastructure, and uses the public investment thus reduced as a financial resource.社会 保障ExpenseChild allowanceCriticize funding[54].KeynesianismNational recession measures were integratedWelfare stateOtherwise it will not work,Macro economyCountries that can't be managedGlobalizationI shouldn't have said[55].

Economists have estimated that Japan's public infrastructure renewal investment will be over 2050 trillion yen in 20 and about 2010 trillion yen in 2050-490 (as of 2009).[56].

Satoshi FujiiProposes infrastructure development by public investment of 300 trillion yen[57].

Norihisa Iwata said, “Useful public works projects should be finished as much as possible before the economy recovers after deflation. If public investment is carried out after the economic recovery, it will hinder private activity. Point out"[58].

EconomistKiyotaki NobuhiroNoted that traditional public investment is less efficient and infrastructure investment is preferred[59].

Heizo Takenaka points out, "The problem is that we don't know if children really need that infrastructure."[60].

Excess theory

Mr. Yasushi Harada points out, “The productivity of the construction industry has been high since 2000, when the public works were cut down. This is because the shrinking of the public works has led to severe competition and personnel reduction.”[61].. In addition, Harada points out that "it is natural to focus only on necessary public works".[62].

Supply constraints in the construction industry

EconomistYasuyuki IidaPoint out that "public works during boom times lead to labor shortages"[63].

Yasushi Harada said, “Increasing public works is not the answer to revitalizing the local area.AbenomicsWhen I increased the number of public works projects with the second arrow of, the number of people was not enough. It means that the population is aging in rural areas and there are no people working in public works.[64]"Keynes said it's better than leaving unemployment for jobs like digging and filling holes, but there is a reason. But construction costs and wages for construction workers are rising. Means that there are already enough materials and people in that field.[17]"I point out.

EconomistTakeshi KataokaAre the main points of supply constraints in the construction industry: 1) decrease in the size of the construction industry, 2) aging of construction workers, 3) concentration of construction work in specific areas, 4) construction-related skilled workers And 5) shortage of construction materials such as steel and cement.[65].

Ripple effects and economic measures

In the 1990sLost ten yearsIt has often been pointed out that the productivity of public works has declined significantly as a result of continued dependence on public works since the prosperity of public works carried out to boost the economy.[66].Nobuo Ikeda"Public projects as "economic measures" of 100 trillion yen or more have prolonged the recession due to the recession. By moving labor to a sector with low labor productivity, the productivity of the entire economy declined." doing[67].

A trial calculation by the Cabinet Office's macro model points out that the multiplier effect of public investment has declined. In that calculation, the multiplier effect of public investment dropped from 1980 in 1.67 to 1990 in 1.31.[68].. One of the causes of the decrease in the multiplier effect is that priority is given to inefficient public investment such as roads where vehicles do not pass, airports where planes do not fly, and industrial parks with vacant lots.[68].

Looking at the relationship between Japanese public investment and GDP with a statistical measure called the correlation coefficient, it was 1980 in 95-0.849 and minus 1996 in 2013-0.886.[69].

The increase in fiscal spending isCrowding outCause a decrease in private investment and consumption due to effects,Mandel Fleming modelAccording to the regulations, the yen appreciation will reduce net exports, and the effect of demand stimulus will be offset, so the economic measures by public works are said to be ineffective.[17].

However, it is pointed out that the Mandel-Fleming model is a small country open economic model[70].

EconomistSeiji Adachi"Improving social capital, such as aging infrastructure, may increase the productivity of the country as a whole," he said.[71].

EconomistMasazumi Wakatabe"For public works, urban infrastructure, Shinkansen and highways, earthquake countermeasures, etc. are necessary."[72].. Wakatabe points out, "There are many possibilities that the ripple effect is higher than the construction industry, such as nursing care, medical care, environment, and services, and there are many ways to do public works."[73].

EconomistRagram Rajan"To help (Japan) transition to a domestic demand-led economy,Structural reformIs necessary. Stimulating domestic demand by expanding public works projects such as the construction of bridges and dams does not provide a fundamental solution."[74].

Mr. Yasushi Harada points out, "It is certain that the effects of both the inefficiency of government spending and the Mandel-Fleming model are occurring. It is necessary to make wise public investment and at the same time ease monetary policy."[75].. In addition, Harada points out, "If you use it for useless public works, you should avoid taking taxes as much as possible."[76].. Harada said, “It costs a huge amount of money to make useless public investment to reduce the disparity. Rather, it is cheaper to distribute the money directly.Negative income taxThere is also a method of helping to acquire skills and skills.”[77].

Norihisa Iwata is an example of public investment that contributes to the independence of the local economy.forestryOf public investment (road network construction) for the revival of power plants, and public investment for the development of cooperation lines between power and gas areas[78].

Savings and investment balance/recovery of investment

Yasuyuki Iida said, “Public works are originally social capital development. Japanese public works are social capital/infrastructure development before construction, but the calculation of returns was not taken seriously, so it was profitable. Road construction and port development continued to be ignored."[79].

Return on investment

“If a toll road only bears, it cannot be redeemed with toll revenue even if it is printed with government bonds. However, if it is a road with a lot of traffic like the Tomei Expressway and it can be constructed at low cost, Even if it is printed and constructed, it can be fully repayable with the traffic income, the government's accumulated debt will not increase, and employment income will be generated. "On the other hand, since welfare does not generate national treasury income, printing government bonds to allocate to welfare resources As with Kumado, it will increase the government's accumulated debt." "The problem with Japan is the depletion of profitable roads and railroads, so other projects such as power plant construction can be carried out to recover the investment."

Economic efficiency

It is better to give 1 unemployed people the job of agriculture and forestry, give wages to 100 yen x 10 people, and sell produced agricultural products for 100 yen to the market with less budget than to give 10 unemployment insurance to one unemployed person. It can save a lot of people and increase GDP (a private company cannot do business whose labor cost exceeds sales).

Savings investment balance

Effective during recessionneedDue to the shortage, goods can not be sold and factory production equipment is idle, but in such a situation, there is no manager who borrows money from banks etc. and further invests in production equipment, so actual demand for funds (borrower of funds) The economy will worsen further due to a shortage, excessive savings and the accumulation of funds at financial institutions, and speculative slowing of money circulation. In that case, we must reduce savings and increase investment and consumption, but if we make government investment that can recover investment and has a high investment yield, we will absorb a large amount of private savings with government bonds and connect it to investment, and accelerate the speed of fund circulation. You can

Business cost allocation

Economists say, "Most local governmentsNuclear power plantThe fact is that they have depended on public works projects due to the location, etc., which was a structural weakness of the Japanese economy."[80].

Norihisa Iwata said, “The act of residents seeking public works projects without self-pay through political activities isRent seekingIs[81]“As long as the public works are allocated to a certain area and the local people do not bear the costs of the public works, they will only benefit. The profits obtained without the burden cannot be obtained in a competitive market. Excess profit, due to public worksRentIs[82]". Iwata points out that "the local contractors will most benefit from attracting local public works projects"[83].

Yasuyuki Iida said, "The key to the effect of fiscal policy is how to use the money for people who use it. Even if it goes to public works, local contractors are barely in debt. Most of the time"[84].

Looking at the amount of public investment per capita, Shimane prefecture had 79 yen, Kochi prefecture had 67 yen, and Tokushima prefecture had 65 yen in order of decreasing amount, with Kanagawa prefecture having 20 yen (2002. Time point)[85].

Mizuho Research Institute said, "Since the state of development of area and social capital is different in each prefecture, it is not possible to make a simple comparison. Since public investment itself plays a part in the economic adjustment function and income redistribution function, There are unavoidable aspects that there is a disparity."[85].

Nobuo Ikeda points out that "public works should be concentrated on large cities and local core cities. Local cities should spend their budgets to protect the natural environment."[86].

EconomistShunpei Takemori"There are still projects of public works that are highly productive and economically beneficial even now (2014). For example, public works projects to reduce traffic congestion in the metropolitan area clearly have merit. Despite the number of useful projects in large cities, public works are concentrated in rural areas, as evidenced by the difference in the distribution of public investment between metropolitan areas and rural areas. In Japan, bridges, roads, and concert halls will be created in places where people do not live, and in places where they do not live. It would be possible for public works to be evaluated as meaningless." doing[66].

Soichi EnzaiNuclear powerIt is,Protection policyIt has been promoted as a huge business/public works project,'' he said.[87].. Engai points out that "the cause of the dependence of local governments on nuclear power generation is the weakening of the industrial base."[88].

Problems in execution

Satoshi Matsubara points out that "the main cause of wasteful public works is the adhesion of politicians, industry and bureaucrats"[89].

Public worksOfficial riggingIt has become a hotbed for rigging, including bureaucrats and officials.dictateIt has been pointed out that it is a cause of political and financial officers' cohesion. Norihisa Iwata points out that "the more rents per person are greater than the cost, the more rent-seeking activities will be."[82].

Suspicion of funding sources for gangs

1998 American economic magazineForbesIn the American version, was the Asian Bureau chief at that timeBenjamin FulfordBut Japanese public worksGangsterThe article was written and published as a source of funding for the.

KIX1-20% of the first-stage construction cost of the company is flowing to gangsters and executives of mid-sized general contractors in KansaiPolicemenCriminal in charge of gangsters testifies[90][91]. AlsoJapan Federation of Bar AssociationsSimilar results have been obtained in public works projects in[91].

Self-help labor claims

All Japan Autonomous Organization Labor Union(Autonomous labor) pointed out that the reason why local governments cannot receive large-scale public works under the direct jurisdiction of the government is that they receive subsidies from the national government, and will switch to public works that can continue to be executed even if subsidies are abolished. Insists. In addition, in response to the fact that environmentally friendly public works do not contribute to income, we are demanding the construction of a system that puts in taxes to protect the environment.[92].

Public works in the United States

Interstate air transport has been a regulator as a public service since 1938(English edition[93]It was controlled by (CAB) and was the cause of the lack of price competition. In 1978Aviation Deregulation LawIntroduced a free market, and drastic price cuts and increased flights have made it possible for passengers to ride cheaply.

To louisianaHurricane KatrinaWhen the arrival of the disaster, the embankment and tide wall of the area was not resistant and it was a disaster prevention system only for name.US Army Corps of Engineers CommandThe hurricane disaster prevention system at that time was a symbol of the neglect of disaster prevention infrastructure in the United States. In light of that reflection, the US government is building a 100-mile dike, sluice, and levee near the city that can withstand a 133-year disaster. Contribution to this public works project is about 145 billion dollars (1 trillion yen), and the large amount of these expenditures makes the business execution flexible, and it is a project that considers not only disaster prevention but also the environment in the region.[94].

footnote

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