US interest rate rise reflects expectations of recovery, FRB does not need to respond = Kansas City Fed Governor
If you write the contents roughly
However, he pointed out that monetary policy will remain accommodative for the time being, given that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has not been dispelled.
[Reuters] – President of the Kansas City Fed said on the XNUMXth that long-term interest rates have been on the rise ... → Continue reading
Wikipedia related words
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The purpose of monetary policy is to maintain credit orderMacro economyIs stable.. Macroeconomic stability is divided into price stability and maintenance of appropriate employment... In particular,General priceTo a suitable rate of increaseInflation-deflationAnd the involuntary unemployment rate (Involuntary unemployment) Is close to zero.. Monetary policy, together with fiscal policy,investmentSuch asneedPlay an important role in controlling.
Monetary policy is the expansion or contraction of domestic credit at the discretion of the central bank, the expansion of domestic credit is monetary easing, and the contraction is nothing but monetary tightening... Specific means of monetary policy include open market manipulation and interest rate manipulation.. Due to monetary easing, monetary easing → Decrease in interest rate → Expansion of investment and consumption →GDPMechanism such as increase of.
To prevent the effects of monetary policy from diminishing, central banks need to cut interest rates early and sufficiently to prevent the economy from deteriorating..
The effectiveness of monetary policy as a measure against recession is expectedReal interest rateHow much lower (Keynes effect) And how much to increase investment/consumption due to lower real interest rates (asset effect)..
- Change of standard discount rate and standard loan interest rate (official discount rate operation)
- It is the interest rate (interest rate) when the central bank lends money to a private bankOfficial discount ratePrivate banks adjust borrowing and lending from central banks by changing (standard discount rate and standard loan interest rate).Interest rate policyIs a basic monetary policy. In Japan, the official discount rate used to be the operational target, but as of 2014,Interbank marketBy interventionShort-term interest rate(Unsecured call overnight) Is the main operation (in the United States,Federal fund interest rate). This will adjust the funding costs of banks, affect lending rates and adjust economic conditions. It exerts influence when the interbank market is active. Increase (decrease) in interest rate leads to decrease (increase) in output (GDP).
- Interest rate increase → Investment decrease → Output (GDP) decrease → Consumption/Investment decrease → Output (GDP) decrease →
- Decrease in interest rate → Increased investment → Increased output (GDP) → Increased consumption and investment → Increased output (GDP) →
- Open market operations
- Central banks buy and sell government bonds and other bonds in circulation on public financial markets.. Central banks can also manipulate domestic credit by buying and selling private commercial notes.
In order to prevent information leaks before the monetary policy is announced and the market to move, before and after the monetary policy decision meeting, the members of the meeting are prohibited from making statements regarding monetary policy.Blackout·rule(Also simply blackout) is provided (FRB-Bank of Japan,other). This period of prohibiting speech is called a blackout period.
- The United States has the longest blackout period, In February 2017, it has been decided that it will be further extended. The blackout period begins on the Saturday two weeks before each meeting (previously Tuesday the previous week).FOMCIf it is held on Tuesdays and Wednesdays for a total of 2 days, the day following the meeting will be full Thursday.
- Bank of JapanStipulates the blackout rule as "agreement on external remarks regarding monetary policy" in the policy committee meeting rules, etc..
"Unconventional monetary policy" is necessary because if interest rates are reduced to zero, there is no room for further reduction.. It is distinguished from traditional monetary policy and non-traditional monetary policy, but it does not change by adjusting the supply of money by purchasing and selling assets from the private sector..
Traditional monetary policy
- Short-term nominal interest rate reduction (interest rate of 0% or more)
- Announcement on future nominal interest rate reduction (time axis effect)
- Home countrycurrencyDepreciation of (Exchange rateLowering)
Non-traditional monetary policy
- Inflation target, Introduction of price level target
- Negative interest rateIntroduction of (financial assetscurrencyIntroduction of ownership tax for
- Open market operationsExpansion of assets subject toForeign bonds-Corporate bond-stock-REIT-Listed investment trustSuch)
Monetary policy operation targets are roughly divided into interest rates and money stock. It is usually impossible to target these two at the same time. In normal cyclical policy, the target is the interest rate level. Lowering interest rates means expanding domestic credit and currency supplies, raising interest rates means shrinking them.. However, money stock is rarely targeted for an overheated or overcooled economy.
The famous policy, in the late 1970sPaul VolckeryuanFRBThere is a new financial control system adopted by the chair. This has been done by targeting the interest rate level until theninflationThis was done because the measures reached the limit, and the goal is money stock (the purpose is to suppress the increase). As a result, the interest rate was released upward and soared. It created an era of high interest rates, even into the early 1980s. With this policy, real interest rates could be raised, and inflation has subsided. By not targeting interest rates in this way, interest rate fluctuations become more severe.
Hideomi Tanaka,Seiji AdachiIs "Monetary baseWhether or not the supply of oil is sufficient or insufficient cannot be understood by a simple comparison of growth rates. Sufficient or inadequate should be calculated based on the nominal economic growth rate deemed appropriate for the economy (eg McCallum Rule))”.
Since the purpose of monetary policy is to bring about stable economic growth through price stability, stock prices are not directly targeted in normal monetary policy, but when fluctuations in stock prices have direct or indirect effects, As a result, stock price movements can influence the future of monetary policy (eg:Black Monday）.
economist OfKunio Okina"It is not good to look at the economy based on prices alone. Stability in the long run is desirable, and if it reacts to too small a movement, it will cause economic instability.".
According to the economist, “Inflation is stable but the bubble has expanded, resulting in a huge disaster. The central bank is paying attention not only to prices but also to asset price surges, and comprehensive and preventative measures are being taken. May have to run the policy on a regular basis.".
Ben BernankeFormer Fed Chairman argues that central banks should ignore volatility in stock prices and home prices, unless there is clear and convincing evidence that production and inflation will be seriously affected. doing.. Bernanke of the 1930sWorld DepressionAsset prices will not be a deciding factor in monetary policy decisions unless faced with a major economic shock such as.
EconomistNorihisa Iwata"A country's nominal interest rate should be guided by monetary policy, as it will bring about macro-economic stabilization in that country.World financial crisisThe cause ofLeverageIt is in financial system policy by ratio".. Iwata points out that comprehensive regulatory and oversight policies (macroprudential policies) should be assigned to the stability of the financial system..
Monetary policy is aimed at controlling price fluctuations and improving the economy.Independent policyIs required, but it may be constrained by the economic structure. It is believed that there will be a time lag before changes in monetary policy affect the real economy, and that delay is said to be about half a year..
EconomistAsahi NoguchiHideomi Tanaka said, “Monetary policy does not create political and resource allocation distortions and fiscal deficits. On the other hand, monetary policy does not mean that the “size” of private investment adjustments is as expected. Is the point"Monetary policy has difficulty in terms of timing and scale"I point out. Noguchi and Tanaka have pointed out that monetary policy will continue to be effective unless its stance changes..
Hideomi Tanaka points out, "Monetary policy does not benefit politicians and bureaucrats in terms of discretionary power, because it broadly benefits the entire population... Tanaka said, "The only advantage isExchange interventionHowever, foreign exchange intervention has only a short-term effect. The exchange rate does not change unless monetary policy changes. Foreign exchange intervention is privateFinancial institutionIs acting on behalf of the government, so there are places where it can make a profit.".
Yasushi Harada said, “Monetary policy can affect the real economy not only through bank lending, but also through exchange rate declines, asset price rises, and real interest rate declines due to inflation expectations. Then, companies can increase their capital investment without relying on bank lending because they have accumulated cash flow... Yasushi Harada,Daiwa Institute of Research"If there is a side effect of monetary policy, it is price increase and exchange rate depreciation," he said..
Takehiro SatoThe Bank of Japan deputy committee member points out that "even if asset prices such as stocks can be moved on a monetary basis, there is a corresponding time lag in the spread to prices.".. Sato states that "price is the temperature of the economy, not a variable that the central bank can directly manipulate.".
EconomistYukinobu Kitamura"What is needed for macroeconomic policies is not independent and expansive monetary policy, but financial intermediation that secures funds to promote the real economy and allocates funds appropriately in real economic activities. If it doesn't work, it will concentrate on certain assets and create an asset bubble.''.
Nobuo Ikeda points out that "the bubble is the fate of capitalism and cannot be prevented only by the power of the central bank. What is important is to prevent the rapid burst of the bubble.".
Marinea S. EcclesFormer Fed Chairman said, “If monetary policy is the only factor of economic stabilization, it will be disappointing. Financial action alone cannot achieve complete economic stabilization. Of course, monetary tightening is possible to stop inflation from rising. However, it is very difficult to stop the recession by financial action.”.
Kunio Okina said, "The problem with large-scale monetary easing is that it does not come to the surface during the period when monetary easing is being expanded. It is necessary".
In the US, monetary policy says that real variables such as production and employment cannot be changed even if nominal variables such as prices are changed.Real business cycleSchools and monetary policy allow not only nominal variables but also real variables to change in the short to medium termNew KeynesianThere is a school.
Since central banks have the authority to issue money, their distance from the government has always been important. If the central bank does not have sufficient independence, it may issue money as the government says. The government has a desire to increase spending and has the property of avoiding resistance to tax increases.Signorridge)) There is a motive to want.
Money issuance increases private investment and causes inflation, but due to ample money issuance, the nominal interest rate does not rise and the real interest rate falls.
The inexhaustible issuance of money will stop the increase in private investment and consumption, and the total supply will not meet the total demand.Hyper inflationOccurs. Hyperinflation is a loss of credit for money, resulting in significant economic loss. For this reason, the central bank must be independent of the government.
EconomistNorihisa Iwata"Historically, leaving monetary policy at the discretion of the central bank without a goal has historically been a source of failure," he said... Asahi Noguchi points out that "the central bank's monetary policy is effectively determined by the president's business judgment. If the timing of monetary tightening or monetary easing is wrong, the economy will run into an unexpected direction.".
According to economists, "a financial crisis is essentially a short-term phenomenon if the financial authorities do not make a policy mistake. If the public's demand for additional currencies is eased, the crisis will end naturally." Pointing out.
EconomistJoseph E. Stiglitz"Monetary policy is more than just a measure against inflation. Too much attention on inflation has left central banks in some countries careless about what is happening in the financial markets. Compared to the costs that the economy will incur if the central bank neglects to inflate the constraints, the costs of gradual inflation will be insignificant.".
Yasushi Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research point out that monetary policy can alleviate economic shocks without expanding the budget deficit, but fiscal and monetary policies cannot cope with supply shocks such as soaring crude oil prices..
Interest rate elasticity
In general, monetary policyInterest rateAnd the interest rate affects private investment (capital investment)Real economyInfluence (private investment includes household housing investment in a broad sense).
But this has a premise. That is, private investment responds to interest rates. This is the interest rateElasticityTherefore, it can be said that the more the private investment responds well to changes in the interest rate, the higher the elasticity. When this elasticity is extremely low, the link between monetary policy and the real economy is lost, and the effectiveness of monetary policy declines. High interest rate elasticity means that there are enough entrepreneurs who want to invest if they can get a loan, and there is no shortage of investment projects. How much does it cost without investment projects?Nominal interest rateMonetary policy will be rendered ineffective because investment will not occur even if the market price drops.
EconomistYoichi Takahashi“With the expansion of the monetary base,Expected inflation rateIs increasing,Real interest rateHas fallen and has spread to the real economy with a certain lag.GDPThe growth rate, unemployment rate, wage increase rate, and inflation rate are determined. In the process, currency is also decided as a by-product.".. In addition, Takahashi points out that "the real interest rate will be negative for a while to break out of deflation, but it will not remain negative in the long run"..
According to economists, "The monetary easing is not the only way in which economic activity can be activated. This is not only the revitalization of corporate capital investment and household housing investment due to the decline in interest rates. Household consumption is greatly affected by annual income, but assets such as financial assets such as stocks and deposits and real assets such as real estate that consumption expenditure increases as the amount of assets held increases. It has an effect".
Speculative money demand becomes infiniteLiquidity trapMonetary policy is incapacitated in a situation where When interest rates approach zero, consumption and investment stop increasing at the interest rate of 2%, and monetary policy becomes completely ineffective.John Maynard KeynesCall this a liquidity trapHe asserted that in the free market, all monetary policy at that time was ineffective and unacceptable.
Yasushi HaradaZero interest rateEven so, monetary policy can stimulate the real economy by expanding the monetary base.Quantitative easing policyHas been effective in some cases.".. Yasushi Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research say, "Even if the nominal interest rate is low,Quantitative easingFinance can be eased by doing any of the following.".
Yoichi Takahashi points out that “there is no room to reduce the nominal interest rate when the nominal interest rate is near zero, but the real interest rate can be negative if the expected inflation rate rises. There is no room to reduce the real interest rate.”.
EconomistKunio Okina"One of the things monetary policy can do is to act on expectations," he said.Norihisa Iwata points out that monetary policy is effective when it works on people's expectations and expectations..Paul Krugman(Paul Krugman) said it could carry out large-scale monetary easing that exceeded the market's expectations despite falling into the liquidity trap for the Japanese economy.Inflation expectationsHe pointed out the root of the Japanese economy that he couldn't save because he wouldn't make it.
Fixed exchange rate system
In the case of a fixed exchange rate system, the central bank needs infinite intervention to maintain the exchange rate if capital movement is free. This is a major constraint for implementing independent policies (International Finance Trilemma). For example, let's say that a small country's central bank wants to lower interest rates by buying operations, increase money stock, and improve the economy. However, if the exchange rate is lowered below the interest rate of a fixed power,MarginAsk forArbitrageWill be drained by. This outflow will continue until all the currencies released by the central bank in the buying operation are returned to the central bank due to the flood of transactions selling home currency. As a result, interest rates will be the same as before and will not have a boosting effect. This makes it virtually impossible for small countries to control interest rates in a fixed exchange rate system. Moreover, even if it is a large power, it does not mean that there are no restrictions on transactions with other powers.
Europe isCurrency integrationAs a result of the implementation of the fixed exchange rate system by multiple countries (in effect, the monetary policy charge is not the central bank of each country)European Central Bank(ECB) is because there is such a background.
Price and unemployment trade-off
In generalUnemployment rateImprovement ofTrade offHave a relationship. It is a temporary short-term trade-off brought about by an unexpected rise in inflation.. Inflation will be higher than before, regardless of whether the unemployment rate recovers from short-term trade-offs sufficiently or negligibly, but in the long runNatural unemployment rateSettle down. That is,Involuntary unemploymentThere is a trade-off relationship with the unemployment rate under certain conditions, but there is no trade-off relationship with the unemployment rate without involuntary unemployment..
The price-employment trade-off is that if you try to maintain an appropriate employment level, you have to tolerate some inflation, and if you try to maintain price stability, you must give up an appropriate employment level. Means a relationship that does not happen.
EconomistsRobert Lucas"Random fluctuations in the money supply raise both inflation and employment rates. And if they occur as part of government policy rather than random fluctuations, inflation will increase but employment will increase." Does not change".
EconomistKazuto Ikeo"Economically, we can only maximize employment through price stability or temporarily maximize employment at the expense of price stability. It is not good to impose dual purposes." It has said.
Yasushi Harada points out that monetary policy is meaningful not because it raises prices, but because it expands production and employment..
Asahi Noguchi and Hideomi TanakaKeynesFor people living in the later era, changes in employment and prices are not the "fate" that must be accepted. This is because it is possible to maintain an appropriate unemployment rate and price increase if the government and central bank properly manage aggregate demand through macroeconomic policies.".
Noguchi and Tanaka said, “The problem with high costs is not the nominal wage, but the rise in “real wages.” If real wages increase, companies have no choice but to reduce employment.Macro economyReal wages can only be reduced in order to achieve the goal. To do so, either reduce nominal wages or raise prices," he said..
Relationship with wages
Lehman shockThe US Fed has responded to the subsequent recession and high unemployment with large-scale quantitative easing, but the proportion of part-time workers increased and the labor participation rate declined even in a moderately recovering economy. And increase in turnover can be seen. The view is that monetary policy can deal with these if they are caused by cyclical factors, but not some factors.Janet YellenIncludingFOMCIs out.. Also, due to globalization (or companies pursuing only corporate profits)Real wageFOMC believes that monetary policy cannot control the decline in, This may hinder the rise of wages and labor indicators may not reflect the actual labor market. As a result, FOMC members have become an uncertain factor in considering exit policies for monetary policy such as interest rate hikes..
EconomistTakatoshi Ito"It takes time because employment and wages are lagging indicators".. EconomistShimizu Hironori"The magnitude of the impact of the amount of money on production, employment, and prices and the length of time lag depend on the information held by the people and the expectations formed based on it," he said..
"The objective of monetary easing is not to raise wages but to raise wages. Of course, if employment increases due to monetary easing and the unemployment rate goes down, wages will eventually rise. Raising wages before they can grow can hinder employment growth.”.
Yoichi Takahashi said, "In the process of deflationary relief from monetary easing,Nominal wageThere is also a phase in which real wages decline when the rate of increase in inflation does not reach the temporary inflation rate. There is no problem as long as employment is increasing because the real wage does not rise. A temporary drop in real wages and an increase in the number of employment is a healthy picture in the phase of exiting deflation. If we break out of deflation, the rate of increase in real wages will be positive.''.
EconomistYasuyuki IidaIs "AbenomicsThe first arrow is by no means the enemy of the rich allies or the poor. Regarding income, there is also a side that corrects the disparity rather than neutrality.".
Changes in monetary policy
Major industrialized countries in the early 1960s and 1970s operated monetarily to maintain employment.. As a result, the money supply ((Monetary base) Increased, resulting in inflation.. The first in 1973Oil shockTriggered major inflation, leading developed countries to prioritize price stability.
Until the mid-1970s, Germany and Japan achieved relatively good results due to monetary policy that kept the money supply stable..
After the first oil crisis of 1973-1974, the Bank of Japan changed its monetary policy, began to reduce the rate of increase in the money supply, and the inflation rate fell... The official discount rate was 1973% in December 12, but was gradually reduced from 9 to 1975% in March 1978..
Since 1989, the BOJ has raised interest rates (official discount rate) from 5% to 2.5% five times.
The official discount rate was reduced from 1991% to 7% in July 6, and since then it has been 5% as of 2002..
In Japan from the late 1990s to the early 2000s, the economy deteriorated andDeflationContinued. The Bank of Japan carried out monetary easing, and in March 1999, short-term interest rates were suppressed to almost 3% (Zero interest rate policy), but this did not stop deflation.
In March 2001, the operation target was changed from the unsecured overnight call rate to the BOJ current account balance... Targeting BOJ current account balance is a typical indicator of money stockM2 + CDHowever, the BOJ current account is a part of the monetary base,Credit creationSince it has a relationship with money stock, it can be said that the goal is money stock. This policy was adopted because the monetary easing targeting interest rates has reached the limit because interest rates do not become negative except in special cases.
Targeted the current account balance of the Bank of Japan for five years from 2001 to 2006Quantitative easing policyWas done.
In March 2006, the quantitative easing policy was lifted and the interest rate target was shifted, but the policy to keep the short-term interest rate low was continued.
August 2008, 10,Lehman shockAfter the AmericanFederal Reserve Board(FRB) andEuropean Central BankThe six central banks in the US and Europe, including (ECB), announced that they have decided to cut their rates, but the BOJ did not cut rates and said it would consider improving financial regulation..
At the Monetary Policy Decision Meeting in July 2016, the Bank of Japan betrayed markets that expected additional easing in three dimensions of “quality, quantity, and negative interest rates” and took additional measures centered on doubling the purchase of listed investment trusts (ETFs). Decided. At the September meeting, the Bank of Japan announced that it would comprehensively examine the economy, price conditions, and the effects of monetary policy to date.
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- ^ Senji Kami: "The Bank of Japan's Aristocrats Will Destroy the Country" Kobunsha <Koubunsha Shinsho>, 2010, 170 pages.
- ^ Mitsubishi Research Institute "Understanding with the latest keywords! Introduction to Nihon Keizai Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Nikkei Business Bunko, 2008, 186 pages.
- ^ Katsuyo Katsuma, "How to Avoid Deflation of Yourself," Bungei Shunju <Bunshun Shinsho>, 2010, 107 pages.
- ^ Norihisa Iwata "Refreshing! Introduction to the Japanese Economy-Fifteen Laws to Read and Read Contemporary Society," Nihon Keizai Shimbun, 15, p. 2003.
- ^ Richard Werner explains the economic downturn at bottoming out interest rates, which means that the economy was not stimulated during periods of continued declines in interest rates.Liquidity trapIt is said to be a criticism of the theory.Richard Werner "The End of Fiction" = Towards a new macroeconomic paradigm. Tokyo: PHP. (2003) P 61
- ^ Daiwa Institute of Research “Latest edition: An introduction to how economics work-see, read and understand”, Nihon Jitsugyo Publisher, 4th edition, 2002, p. 169.
- ^ Six central banks in the U.S. and Europe cut coordinated interest rates, with the Bank of Japan not participatingReuters April 2008, 10