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🌏 | US Fed rate hike conditions not met until 24 = Chicago Fed Governor


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US Fed rate hike conditions not met until 24 = Chicago Fed Governor

 
If you write the contents roughly
「インフレ率が1年間持続的に2.5%で推移すれば満足で、さらに3%に上昇し始めるまでは不安を感じない」と語った。
 

[Reuters] – The Federal Reserve Governor Evans of the Chicago District Fed was set by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) on the XNUMXth ... → Continue reading

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inflation

EconomicsSo, let ’s say that the price level of the economy will generally rise over a period of time.inflation(English: inflation,Rising prices,Inflation)[1] [2] [3] [4]..As general price levels rise, the number of goods and services that can be purchased in one unit of currency decreases.As a result, inflation is per unit of currency.Purchasing powerDecline, that is, the means of exchange and accounting units in the economySubstantial decline in valueTo reflect[5] [6]..The opposite of inflationDeflationThat is, the general price level of goods and services will continue to decline.A common indicator of inflation isInflation rateso,General price index(NormallyConsumer price index) Is an annualized rate of change.

Economists say that inflation is very highHyper inflationIs harmful,Money supplyBelieve it is due to an excessive increase in[7]..On the other hand, there are more diverse views on the factors that determine low and moderate inflation.Low-to-moderate inflation is thought to be due to fluctuations in substantial demand for goods and services, and changes in available supply, such as when supplies are in short supply.[8]..However, the common view is that long-lasting inflation is caused by the growth of the money supply at a rate that exceeds economic growth.[9] [10].

Inflation has various positive and negative effects on the economy.The negative impact of inflation is due to holding moneyopportunity costIncrease, restraint of investment and savings due to uncertainty about future inflation, and if inflation progresses rapidly, consumers will start hoarding for fear of future price increases, and there will be a shortage of products. Can be mentioned.The positive effect isRigidity of nominal wagesbyunemploymentDeclining rate, central bankFinancial PolicyIt includes increasing the degree of freedom of the government, encouraging loans and investments instead of accumulating money, and avoiding inefficiencies associated with deflation.

Today, most economists support low and stable inflation.[11]..Low inflation (rather than zero or negative) allows the labor market to adjust more quickly during a recession.RecessionIs less serious,Liquidity trapThis reduces the risk that monetary policy will not be able to stabilize the economy.The task of keeping inflation low and stable is usually given to financial authorities.In general, these financial authoritiesCentral BankAndinterest ratesettings of,Open market operations, BankReserve ratioControl monetary policy through the setting of.

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Real factors

Inflation caused by supply falling significantly below demand due to war and industrial structural destruction. Japan immediately after the end of World War II (1946) Has recorded over 300% inflation[12]. Also,ZimbabweThen, droughts drove the white farms out of the country by policy and destroyed the agricultural structure, resulting in an extreme shortage of goods, eventually resulting in super hyperinflation of 2 million%.[13].

need

Inflation caused by the demand side,Excess demand inflationAlso called (demand-driven inflation, demand-pull inflation).Increased demand (Demand curveUpwards), prices will rise because the willingness to buy will not decline even if prices are high. in this case,Supply curveThe economy will improve unless is vertical (ie not producing).

1973から1975OverJapanThe cause of inflation isOil shockAttracts attention,Floating exchange rateExcess liquidity due to inflow of short funds just before the transition,Archipelago remodelingExcessive construction demand due to the "boom" is also a major factor[Source required].

Supply

Supply curveInflation caused by an upward shift inCost price inflation inflationAlso known as (cost-push inflation).In many cases, the economy will deteriorate and become stagflation or close to it.NormalExchange rateFall, import prices rise and cause inflation, and the burden of repayment of foreign currency debt held by companies increases[14].

As cost increases shift aggregate supply upwards,Real GDPDecreases[15]..On the other hand, excess demand shifts aggregate demand upwards, resulting in an increase in real GDP.[15]..In other words, it is possible to determine whether the cost is rising or the demand is exceeded by the movement of real GDP.[15].BusinessTo determine if prices are rising due to overheating ofConsumer price indexnotGDP deflatorMust see[16].

Cost inflation (cost inflation)
It is caused by soaring wages and materials.Crude oil priceTypical examples are inflation due to soaring prices and stagflation due to a consumption tax increase.
Structural inflation
If there is a difference in growth between industries, prices will rise in industries with low productivity and this will occur. For example, assume that productivity and wages have increased in an efficient manufacturing industry. If wages rise higher than productivity improvement in the service industry due to this, service charges will have to be raised, causing inflation.
Export inflation
Caused by increased exports. As a result of companies allocating their products for export, the amount of supply to the domestic market will eventually decrease.BakumatsuIn a periodRaw silkInflation is occurring due to a sharp increase in exports such as. This patternMultiplier effectThere is also an aspect of demand inflation because total demand is increasing.
Import inflation
Inflation abroad affects domestically through imports from other countries. For example, if a country that was importing grain increased domestic demand in the country that exported the grain, or if the export source distributed exports to other countries, grain imports would decline and grain prices would rise. is there. In fact, when China turned into a net grain importer, there was a price surge in the corn market.
Catch-up inflation
Systems that control wages and prices often occur when transitioning to a market economy. In the US and Japan1970 eraIt happened to. In EuropeCold WarAnd the end ofEuropean Central Bank(ECB) Economic integration of Eastern European countries into liberal countries has caused catch-up inflation due to rising wages and service prices in low-wage countries[17].

Monetary factors

currencyIt is caused by an increase in the supply amount of. Increasing supply of money reduces the relative value of money with respect to all other goods and services, which is inflation itself. Furthermore, an increase in the supply of money will increase the relative value of bonds to money, which is nominal.interest rateLower. Therefore usuallyinvestmentWill increase, leading to increased demand. Eventually that process results in demand inflation, which in turn leads to inflation. In addition to the normal control of money supply by the central bank such as open market operations, if there is a particular reason for the increase in money supply, it may be called "financial inflation", "credit inflation", "exchange rate inflation", etc. is there.

Financial inflation
Issued by the governmentPublic debtTheCentral Bank(Financial finance, monetization), resulting in an increase in the supply of money[18].. In addition to the effect of monetary easing, demand inflation also occurs due to the effect of effective demand creation by fiscal expenditure. Hyperinflation is often caused by fiscal finance.
Credit inflation
Commercial bankBy increasing lending and credit guaranteesCredit moneyInflation caused by an increase in the supply of
Forex inflation
Inflation that occurs when a large amount of currency is supplied via the foreign exchange market. In some cases, it may particularly refer to the "foreign exchange inflation controversy" in the prewar gold ban.[19][20][21][22].. It should be noted that at that time, the exchange rate system was fixed, and the current exchange rate system had a different effect on the amount of money supplied by movements in the foreign exchange market.

By speed

Creeping inflation
Inflation that progresses gently. Inflation is a few percent per year, which is seen during boom times. The economy is considered healthy and is often said to be in good condition. Also called "mild inflation".
Galloping inflation
Inflation that advances rapidly. From "Gallop" which expresses the fast walking of a horse. Inflation rate often refers to more than 10%-several tens of% annually. May occur with stagflation.
Hyper inflation

Economic impact

Inflation is a loss to a person with a certain nominal income, but it is worth it to the person hiring that person[23].

Wages also rise with rising prices, but adjustments are delayed compared to prices, soReal wageLowers the unemployment rate because it makes it easier to increase employment (Phillips curve)[24][25].. Employment increases in the demand-pull type where real GDP increases, and decreases in the cost-push type where real GDP decreases[26].

economistNoRobert LucasInflation fools people into accepting jobs and employers to hire workers. Employees and employers become aware of the government's intent and are not fooled by it, because the inflation-unemployment correlation broke because the government sought to use it." ing[27].. Randsburg said, "Inflation" does not work people, but "unexpected" inflation works people. Under fully anticipated inflation, the unemployed will not work. Fully expected inflation is It doesn't affect anyone's actions."[28].

Unexpected Inflation Benefits Borrowers Repaying Debt in Lower Prices, but Losses Lenders[23].. When the inflation rate exceeds the deposit interest rate, the value of the savings deposit is substantially reduced. If the inflation rate exceeds the lending rate, inflation effectively reduces the value of the debt, resulting in a reduction in the repayment burden (such as a mortgage).

The rise in inflation itself has the effect of raising private consumption[29].. Consumption will increase if the expected inflation rate rises and the real interest rate falls.[29].. However, if the inflation rate rises excessively, it becomes difficult to predict the future,不 確 実 性Consumption and investment will be stagnant due to the increase of.

EconomistYasushi Harada,Daiwa Institute of Research"High inflation lowers people's real income and lowers the value of home-currency denominated assets[30]"Hyperinflation isThe Law of One PriceCause the exchange rate to plunge, causing capital to escape[31]"I point out.

EconomistMitsuharu Ito"People's expectations are diverse, and if prices rise, some may cut their lives. In the past, whether low interest rates would increase capital investment.Economic Planning AgencyCorporate behavior survey of Japan gives negative findings."[32].

S. Lansburg"The real economic cost of inflation is that people take costly actions to avoid inflation, and those actions do not benefit anyone," he said.[33].

EconomistNorihisa Iwata"Even if prices rise due to inflation, if wages rise and real income increases, living will become richer," he said.[34].. Iwata points out, "In order to stabilize people's lives, we must maintain the lowest possible inflation rate."[35].. According to Iwata, "price stability in the sense of achieving stable economic growth and employment means that the inflation rate has been around 2-3% in the medium term, based on past experience in each country." Pointing out[36].

EconomistYoichi Takahashi"The consensus is that inflation of 3-5% is in the range of mild inflation and is not a problem for the national economy," he said.[37].. EconomistHeizo Takenaka"It is natural that prices rise by about 1-2% every year," said the consensus of experts around the world. Prices rising above 5% are not good. "[38]Takenaka also points out that "the ideal is to stabilize the inflation rate in the range of zero to several percent."[39].

EconomistMasazumi Wakatabe"There are no examples of hyperinflation, and double-digit or higher inflation would have a negative impact on the economy. Perhaps above 2% would not be desirable," he said.[40].

EconomistJE Stiglitz"Too much attention on inflation has left central banks in some countries indifferent to what is happening in the financial markets. Central banks let the asset bubble swell without restriction. Compared with the cost that the economy will bear by doing so, the cost of gradual inflation will be negligible."[41].

(I.e.

Various measures have been taken to prevent or eliminate inflation.

An example

  • Central bankPolicy interest rate,Official discount rateRaising
    • Currency appreciation due to interest rate hikes[42]
  • Central bankOpen market operationsFund absorption operation by
  • Central bank deposit reserve raising operation
  • Switching to a new currency following the central bank's issuance of new currency and blockade of deposits
  • Government cuts fiscal spending
  • Government raises taxes to curb consumption
  • Inflation target(Price level target)

An example

The oldest in the world

The world's oldest inflation recordedKingdom of macedonia OfAlexander the GreatImmediately after the death of323 BCIs said to be[43].Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyAccording to research by Professor Peter Taemin,BabyloniaAlready inMarket economyDue to lack of supply of agricultural productsAchaemenid dynasty PersiaInflation was triggered by an increase in people's anxiety due to the death of the Great King, while there was an inventory of excessive treasures (mainly silver) brought from the conquered land.[43].

Ancient rome

Military emperorOf the eraAncient romeHowever, as a result of repeated exacerbations of silver coins due to the need to increase salaries to soldiers, inflation caused inflation and had an impact on citizens' lives.DiocletianMade a currency reform, but had no effect,301Issued a royal decree "highest price law" that stipulated the highest prices for goods and services. It is said that there was no evidence of these being carried out, and the effect was weak, but the prices of daily necessities and salaries of each profession are set in detail, and they are valuable historical materials in modern times.[44].

Price revolution

PissarrobyInca EmpireAfter the conquestPotosi GinzanA lot of gold and silverスペインWas carried to.1521から1660It is said that the amount of gold and silver brought to Spain by then was 200 tons of gold and 1.8 tons of silver.Since these gold and silver were mainly monetary, their monetary value was reduced to one-third throughout Europe.In other words, inflation that tripled prices occurred, and this was called "Price revolution". Due to the development of commerce and industry due to the supply of money,Feudal lordIt brought about social changes such as the collapse of layers.

Local

Inflation may occur on a regional or urban basis, in addition to national inflation.The problem today isUnited Nations peacekeeping operations(Peace-Keeping Operations: PKO)[Source required]..After the war in the conflict area, the troops of each country dispatched for peacekeeping are the same as the wealthy people who suddenly appear in places where the economy is exhausted.As a result, prices of daily necessities and foodstuffs procured by the troops will rise around the garrison, causing inflation and putting pressure on the lives of the local residents who are in need of conflict.As a countermeasure, purchasing activities outside the garrison of the troops are being restrained, and the PKO troops are also conducting price keeping operations at the same time.

in Japan,MeijiLater資本主義Local inflation was seen under economicization.Agricultural areas and undeveloped areas (Hokkaido)Industrial-Mining・Giant logistics facility (Port), rapid capital investment and rapid population increase (Urbanization), And local inflation occurred due to the need for daily necessities.Therefore, a branch office or branch office of the Bank of Japan was set up for the purpose of price stability.The location and timing of the BOJ's branch offices and branch offices are closely related to concerns about local inflation associated with economic activity in the region.[Source required].

Related terms

Break-even inflation rate

Break-even inflation rate(Break-even inflation rate) refers to how much prices are generally expected to rise in the future.Inflation expectations(Inflationary expectations) is a typical indicator to measure[45].. JGB andInflation-linked bonds(Yield of government bonds-yield of inflation-linked government bonds).Represents the expected inflation rate estimated by the market.If this value is positive, then inflation is expected, and if it is negative, then deflation is expected by the market.[46][47].

EconomistNorihisa Iwata"The expected inflation rate isGovernment bondYou can almost tell by the yield difference with[48].

Yasushi Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research point out that the expected inflation rate will affect the most recent price index as the maturity shortens, so it will be useful for forecasting prices in the near future.[49].

If there are no specially designed financial assets such as inflation-linked bonds, we cannot directly observe the expected inflation rate.[50].

footnote

  1. ^ Wyplosz & Burda 1997 (Glossary)
  2. ^ Blanchard 2000 (Glossary)
  3. ^ Barro 1997 (Glossary)
  4. ^ Abel & Bernanke 1995 (Glossary)
  5. ^ Why price stability? Archived October 14, 2008, at the Wayback Machine., Central Bank of Iceland, Accessed on September 11, 2008.
  6. ^ Paul H. Walgenbach, Norman E. Dittrich and Ernest I. Hanson, (1973), Financial Accounting, New York: Harcourt Brace Javonovich, Inc. Page 429. "The Measuring Unit principle: The unit of measure in accounting shall be the base This principle also assumes that the unit of measure is stable; that is, changes in its general purchasing power are not considered sufficiently important to require adjustments to the basic financial statements. "
  7. ^ Robert Barro and Vittorio Grilli (1994), European Macroeconomics, Ch. 8, p. 139, Fig. 8.1. Macmillan, ISBN 0-333-57764-7.
  8. ^ "MZM velocity". 2014/9/13Browse.
  9. ^ Mankiw 2002, pp. 81–107
  10. ^ Abel & Bernanke 2005, pp. 266–269
  11. ^ Hummel, Jeffrey Rogers. "Death and Taxes, Including Inflation: the Public versus Economists" (January 2007). P. 56
  12. ^ Takaaki Mitsuhashi "The greatness of the Japanese economy that even high school students can understand! ] Saitosha, 2009, p. 66.
  13. ^ Takaaki Mitsuhashi "The greatness of the Japanese economy that even high school students can understand! ] Saitosha, 2009, p. 65.
  14. ^ Sanwa Research Institute, "The Japanese Economy in 30 Words", Nikkei Business Newspaper, Nikkei Business Bunko, 2000, p.258.
  15. ^ a b c Politics/Society [How to solve Japan] Read the true intention of the Vice President of the Bank of Japan IwataZAKZAK December 2014, 5
  16. ^ Morinaga Takuro, "Economics for "Don't be fooled!" How to read the backside of Moritaku-style economic news," PHP Research Institute <PHP Business New Book>, 2008, page 96.
  17. ^ [1][2]
  18. ^ "About the problem of budget deficit"[3] P.2, "Deflation, NPL Problems and Monetary Policy" Mitsuhiro Fukao (Ministry of Finance, Research Institute for Financial Policy 2002.8)[4] P.40
  19. ^ Cinii Literature Information[5]
  20. ^ Kenichi Yoshida, "Purchasing Power Parity Theory of "Nominal" Fluctuations in Foreign Exchange Rate: Reexamination of "Duality of Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuation""Research on Economics" Vol. 46, No. 1, p.53-68 1996, Faculty of Economics, Hokkaido University,ISSN 0451-6265.
  21. ^ Kenichi Yoshida, "The Historical Significance of the Lifting of Gold (5-6): Junnosuke Inoue's Austerity Policy"Research on Economics" Vol. 38, No. 3, p.47-78 1988, Faculty of Economics, Hokkaido University,ISSN 0451-6265.
  22. ^ Masaya Fujisawa, "Inflation Monetary Factor: Harrod's Theory of Anti-Inflation"Commercial Studies" Vol. 10, No. 3, p.1-30 1960, Otaru University of Commerce,ISSN 04748638.
  23. ^ a b Stephen Randsburg, "Lunchtime Economics-Unraveling the Mysteries of Daily Life," Nikkei Business Journal, 2004, 113 pages.
  24. ^ Interview with Koichi Hamada, Chief Cabinet SecretaryAbenomicsGreat Change in Monetary Policy Brought by Japan to Regain the Japanese Economy with Inflation Targets and BOJ Amendments” Diamond Online 2013May 1
  25. ^ “Governor Shirakawa was honest, but suffered the people.” Koichi Hamada Exclusive Interview with Professor Emeritus, Yale University Toyo Keizai Online 2013May 2
  26. ^ Shoot Yoichi Takahashi's popular theory! Current inflation is the effect of monetary policy Concerns about the impact of the consumption tax hike approaching the 1997 modelDiamond Online August 2014, 5
  27. ^ Stephen Randsburg, "Lunchtime Economics-Unraveling the Mysteries of Daily Life," Nikkei Business Journal, 2004, 330 pages.
  28. ^ Stephen Randsburg, "Lunchtime Economics-Unraveling the Mysteries of Daily Life," Nikkei Business Journal, 2004, 331 pages.
  29. ^ a b Large-scale tax hike will reduce consumer spending-total demand stabilization policy should be thoroughly enforced / Naoki Murakami / EconomistSYNODOS-Synodos-August 2014, 8
  30. ^ Yasushi Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research "Introduction to Japanese Economy for New Adults" Mainichi Shimbun <Mainichi Business Books>, 2009, p. 126.
  31. ^ Yasushi Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research "Introduction to Japanese Economy for New Adults" Mainichi Shimbun <Mainichi Business Books>, 2009, p. 134.
  32. ^ Economist Mitsuharu Ito "Because of listening, Prime Minister Abe lie"Daily Gendai August 2014, 8
  33. ^ Stephen Randsburg, "Lunchtime Economics-Unraveling the Mysteries of Daily Life," Nikkei Business Journal, 2004, 114 pages.
  34. ^ Norihisa Iwata, “What's happening in the Japanese economy,” Toyo Keizai, Inc., 2005, p. 40.
  35. ^ Norihisa Iwata "What's the Business?" Chikuma Shobo <Chikuma Primer Shinsho>, 2008, p.153.
  36. ^ Norihisa Iwata "Recommendations for Economic Thinking" Chikuma Shobo, 2011, p.168.
  37. ^ Yoichi Takahashi, "Books that Solve Large Japanese Problems in Interestingly, Thinking Simple and Logically" Kobunsha <Koubunsha Shinsho>, 2010, page 55.
  38. ^ Heizo Takenaka: Professor Takenaka, what is the economy? ”Knowledge Fore, 2008, p. 76.
  39. ^ Heizo Takenaka, Tomorrow's Economics, Gentosha, 2003, p. 81.
  40. ^ New BOJ President returns to zero interest rate PHP Business Online 2008May 5
  41. ^ Special contribution by Professor Joseph Stiglitz "Don't repeat the same mistake anymore! Hard lessons learned in 2009" Diamond Online 2010May 1
  42. ^ No growth without strong yen PHP Business Online Public knowledge 2008May 9
  43. ^ a b Roger Dobson (January 2002, 1). “How Alexander caused a great Babylon inflation”. Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/how-alexander-caused-a-great-babylon-inflation-9213402.html 2019/3/28Browse. 
  44. ^ *Ryoji Motomura, "How to Read "Roman History" as Culture"PHP Institute, 2018. p300
  45. ^ [Economic English Learned from WSJ] 76th Breakeven Inflation Rate WSJ.com April 2013, 4
  46. ^ Mizuho Investment Trust Investment Advisor Break Even Inflation Rate
  47. ^ Changes in Japan Mutual Securities BEI
  48. ^ Interview with Mr. Norihisa Iwata, who wrote "Simultaneous recession" Toyo Keizai Online August 2009, 4
  49. ^ Yasushi Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research "Introduction to Japanese Economy for New Adults" Mainichi Shimbun <Mainichi Business Books>, 2009, p. 61.
  50. ^ Norihisa Iwata, "Research on the Showa Depression," Toyo Keizai, Inc., 2004, p.

References

  • Hideki Takayasu, Takayuki Mizuno, Misako Takayasu, "Mathematics of Hyperinflation" "Mathematical Science",Science company, NO.465 MARCH 2002 pp.78-83,NOT 40002001779
  • T. Mizuno, M.Takayasu and H.Takayasu, "The mechanism of double exponential growth in hyper-inflation" Physica A 308,1-4,411-419 (2002)
  • Inflation rates around the world

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