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🌏 | NY foreign exchange market = dollar flat, US index suggests rising inflation


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NY foreign exchange market = dollar flat, US indicators suggest rising inflation

 
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The consumer price index (CPI, seasonally adjusted) for April, announced on the 12th, also recorded a significant increase of 4% year-on-year in the comprehensive index, the first significant increase in about 4.2 and a half years since September 08.
 

[New York XNUMXth Reuters] – The dollar is flat in the New York foreign exchange market.April announced in the morning ... → Continue reading

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物 価

物 価(Bukka,British: pricesOr commodity prices)

Overview

The concept of "price" is literally "thoughPriceHowever, when we say "price" in economics, we generally mean "price level".[4].

There may be several ways of thinking about concepts for each field and perspective, such as academics, administration, and civic movements, but even if one economic "price" is taken, one concrete "price" value is originally obtained. It does not absolutely exist, it just existsstatisticsIt is captured by a typical index (the average of the prices of many goods), and it depends on the judgment of what kind of goods price should be included in the index.Consumer price index"" "" "" Etc. These different "price" are used properly according to the purpose.[5].. According to the Encyclopedia Nipponica, there are wholesale prices, ... (domestic prices, international prices), etc.[6].. (Various price indexes are explained in the chapter below.)

In other words, "price" is the "exchange value" of goods and services with respect to money, and the "purchasing power" of money.ReciprocalBecome a relationship[7].. In other words, the higher the "price", the smaller the amount of goods and services that can be purchased with the same amount of money.

Price determination

Monetary quantity theory

Monetary quantity theoryAccording to, the price level is determined by the total amount of money.[8].. The Quantity Theory of Money is said to have a certain legitimacy, but problems have also been pointed out.[8].

General prices and relative prices

economist OfKnut WicksellIs the nominal price (General price) FluctuationsRelative priceI discovered that the fluctuation of is a fundamentally different phenomenon.[9].

Price fluctuations

Prices are "BusinessWhen the economy goes up, the demand for goods and services rises, and when the economy slumps, it goes down.Thermometer"It is called[10][11].

Inflation and deflation

A state in which prices continue to riseinflation(Inflation), a state where prices are declining continuouslyDeflation(Deflation)[11].

Factors that raise prices include economic expansion, monetary easing, wage increases, demand increases, supply shortages, population growth, rising raw material and energy costs, wars and conflicts.[11].

Factors behind the decline in prices include productivity improvement due to technological progress, new entry due to deregulation, and an increase in imported products.[12].

Prices and the role of the central bank

The Bank of Japan is a website for the general public, and price stability is an indispensable foundation for the economy to achieve stable and sustainable growth.Central BankWill play a role in contributing to the "sound development of the national economy" through this, and the central bankFinancial PolicyThe most important purpose is to "stabilize prices".[13].. In addition,Asset priceConsidering the position of monetary policy in terms of monetary policy management, it is almost the same view of the authorities and academia of each country that the stabilization of asset prices itself cannot be the ultimate goal of monetary policy.[14].

Significance of price index

Price index(Bumpy,British: price index) Means price fluctuationsIndicesWhat I did. Rather than calculating based solely on price informationGoods-ServicesIt is calculated based on the quantity and price of.

consumerIndexed the prices of goods and services thatConsumer price indexIndexed commodity transaction prices between companiesCorporate price index,nominalGDPDivided by real GDPGDP deflatorThere is.

Also in JapanTokyo UniversityとNihon Keizai ShimbunCalculated by digital mediaThe University of Tokyo Daily Price IndexThere is[15].

How to calculate the price index

Various ways to calculate price indexesGoods-ServicesData on changes in the quantity consumed and eachGoods-ServicesData on price changes is required. There are the following methods for calculating the price index.

Laspeyres index

Laspeyres indexThe calculation formula for is as follows. When to set the base year is not decided in the formula and is arbitrary.

Laspeyres index (%) = (Σ (Σ (XNUMX year))Goods-ServicesPrice for a certain year × Goods-ServicesPurchase quantity in the base year of)) / (Σ (Σ (Goods-ServicesBase year price × Goods-ServicesPurchase quantity in the base year of)) × 100

VariousGoods-ServicesA set of each purchase quantity ofバ ス ケ ッ トCalled. Base yearGoods-ServicesIt is inevitable that the basket of purchase quantity will change little by little as the years go by. Therefore, the farther the Laspeyres index is from the base year, the less it serves its purpose as a price index. For example, if you decide that 50 years ago is the base year, what and how much people bought 50 years ago, that is, the basket 50 years ago will be very different from this year's basket. .. In such cases, the Laspeyres index for the last few years will not be an accurate indicator of prices.

Goods-ServicesIt is more quick than the Paasche index because it can be calculated without knowing the purchase quantity of this year.

The following are examples of price indexes that use the Laspeyres index as the calculation method.

Paasche index

The calculation formula for is as follows. When to set the base year is not decided in the formula and is arbitrary.

Paasche index (%) = (Σ (Σ (XNUMX year))Goods-ServicesPrice for a certain year × Goods-ServicesPurchase quantity in a certain year)) / (Σ (Σ (Goods-ServicesBase year price × Goods-ServicesPurchase quantity in a certain year)) × 100

If you decide that 50 years ago is the base year, there are some products that you can buy now that weren't sold 50 years ago. Therefore, if the base year is too old, it will not be an index that accurately represents prices. If we decide that this year is the base year, this year's Paasche index will always be 100% and we will change the base year every year, which is not good.

Goods-ServicesIt is inferior to the Laspeyres index because it cannot be calculated without knowing the purchase quantity of this year.

The following are examples of price indexes that use the Paasche index as the calculation method.

Fisher index

Fisher indexTo calculate, find the square root of the product of the Paasche index and the Laspeyres index.

Major price indexes

economist"In a world where many prices change individually, it is not possible to create an accurate and single indicator without bias. The US government has released several inflation indicators, each with its own bias. That's why economists strive to carefully choose the right indicators for their purposes. "[16].

Corporate price index

Domestic Corporate Price Index (CGPI), which targets the prices of domestic business-to-business transactions, (EPI), which targets prices exported overseas, and Import Price Index (IPI), which targets prices imported from overseas. Divided into.

Research institutes in JapanBank of Japan.. The investigation started in 1887,JapanOldest instatistics.. Until it was revised to the 2000 standard, it was announced as a wholesale price index, but it was renamed to a corporate price index due to the high proportion of price surveys at the producer stage.

Survey method

  • Domestic corporate price indexWas once mainly primaryWholesaleWe were investigating the selling price of the vendor, but the price at the producer stage is investigated due to the gradual expansion of the influence of the producer on the price determination and the increase in direct sales from the producer to the user. It became so. In the domestic corporate goods price index, although the price at the producer stage is adopted, the weight is about 85% (as of 2002).
  • Export / Import Price IndexInvestigate the price at the stage when the export price index is shipped from Japan (FOB price) and the price at the stage when the import price index arrives at Japan (CIF price)[17].

Individual indexes are created from the individual item prices surveyed, and the overall index is created by integration with weights and weighted averaging.

Responding to quality changes

computerFor items whose functions are becoming more sophisticated due to technological progress such as, quality changes are included in the index by the method. This is the idea that even if the price of a personal computer is the same one year ago and now, if the processing speed is doubled, the actual index will be halved.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan's Statistics Bureau has introduced it on a trial basis (corporate price index / wholesale price index), while the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is cautious (consumer price index).[18].

For personal computers, the consumer price index uses the "all-model chain index" that uses POS data, and it depends on the ability to accurately grasp the decline in quality-adjusted prices for personal computers as a whole. It is pointed out that there is a downward bias because it is below the estimated value by the hedonic method.[19].

The wholesale price index applies the same approach to three products: personal computers, digital cameras, and video cameras. The corporate price index is applied to video cameras (2009.6), copiers (2009.9), printing equipment (2009.11), digital cameras (2009.12), personal computers (2010.3), and general-purpose computer servers (2010.3).

Consumer price index

There are differences in the items, composition ratios, and calculation methods of the consumer price index from country to country.[11].

Research institutes in JapanMinistry of Internal Affairs and Communications.. Survey started in August 1946.

Survey method

Create an individual index from the average retail price of the retail price statistics survey (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications survey)Household surveyBased on (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications survey), individual indexes are integrated to create the overall index.

  • Retail price survey: Select 167 municipalities from all over the country, and the retail price is representative among them.retail storeThe survey is conducted on about 30,000 stores and service establishments, about 25,000 households with rent, and about 530 businesses with accommodation charges. The price is the retail price actually sold (excluding special sale sales, etc.).

GDP deflator

Dynamic Price Index (DEPI)

An index indicated by assigning the consumer price index and asset price by parameters determined by time preference and the number of living expenses. When this parameter is XNUMX, it becomes the consumer price index. That is, DEPI is a universal price index, and CPI is a special case of DEPI.[20] [21].

However:

footnote

[How to use footnotes]
  1. ^ World Encyclopedia Second Edition "Prices"
  2. ^ Encyclopedia Nipponica "Prices"
  3. ^ Yasuyuki Iida "The theory of money taught by history" Diamond, 2007[Page number required].
  4. ^ World Encyclopedia Second Edition "Prices"
  5. ^ World Encyclopedia Second Edition "Prices"
  6. ^ Encyclopedia Nipponica "Prices"
  7. ^ Encyclopedia Nipponica "Prices"
  8. ^ a b Kenichi Watanabe. “Basic recognition of monetary theory”. Seikei University Faculty of Economics, Vol. 47, No. 1. 2020th of February 6Browse.
  9. ^ Nihon Keizai Shimbun, "Giants of Economics Fighting the Crisis-The Wisdom of Predecessors that Masters Read" Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Nikkei Business Bunko, 2012, p. 35.
  10. ^ Daiichi Kangin Research Institute, "The Japanese Economy Starting with Basic Terms", Nikkei Business Journal, Nikkei Business Bunko, 2001, page 96.
  11. ^ a b c d "Economic word useful for investment vol.6 Inflation”. Nomura Asset Management. 2020th of February 6Browse.
  12. ^ "Recent economic trends”. Development Bank of Japan. 2020th of February 6Browse.
  13. ^ "Tell me! Bank of Japan"[1]
  14. ^ "Asset Price and Monetary Policy Management" Uemura, Suzuki, Chikada (Bank of Japan Working Paper 1997-7)[2]
  15. ^ To help verify the price index of the University of Tokyo and NikkeiNihon Keizai Shimbun January 2014, 7
  16. ^ Stephen Randsburg, "Lunchtime Economics-Unraveling the Mysteries of Daily Life," Nikkei Business Journal, 2004, 205 pages.
  17. ^ If the survey price is denominated in a foreign currency, in the survey target monthbankConverted to yen based on the market price of telegraphs to customers
  18. ^ "Accuracy of Consumer Price Index-Request of Bank of Japan" Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications[3]
  19. ^ "Consumer Price Index" Shigenori Shiratsuka[4]
  20. ^ Introducing "Dynamic Price Index" from Consumer Price Index Nikkei Business Hiroshi Shibuya August 2018, 8
  21. ^ Theory and Application of Dynamic Equilibrium Price Index-Asset Prices and Inflation, Financial Studies, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1991

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