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🌏 | US, no risk of hyperinflation = Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen


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US, no risk of hyperinflation = Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen

 
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[Reuters] – US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testified at the House Revenue Commission yesterday, recognizing that the United States is not at risk of hyperinflation.
 

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Hyper inflation

Economicsso,Hyper inflation(English: hyperinflation, Hyperinflation) is very high and typically acceleratesinflationThat is.Local as prices of all products risecurrency OfSubstantial valueIs rapidly lost.This allows people to minimize their holdings of that currency and to make it a more stable foreign currency (recently).U.S. dollarSwitch to (many)[1]..Prices are usually stable against other relatively stable currencies.

Unlike low inflation, where the process of rising prices is protracted and generally not noticed without looking at past market prices, hyperinflation involves nominal prices, nominal costs of goods,Money supplyIncreases rapidly and continuously[2]..But in general, general price levels rise even more rapidly than the money supply as people try to let go of the devaluated currency as soon as possible.Then, the actual money stock (the amount of money in circulation divided by the price level) will be significantly reduced.[3].

Almost all hyperinflation was funded by currency issuanceGovernment budget deficitIs caused by.Hyperinflation put some stress on government budgets, including the war and its aftermath, socio-political turmoil, the collapse of aggregate supply and falling export prices, and other crises that made it difficult for governments to collect tax revenues. It often happens in some cases.In addition to a sharp decline in real tax revenues, the country falls into hyperinflation when it becomes necessary or unwilling to maintain government spending.[4].

Definition

American economist,(English edition)Defines hyperinflation as "inflation rate exceeds 50% every month".If the monthly inflation rate continues to be 50%, prices will rise 129.75 times in a year.[Note 1]..That is, the inflation rate is 12875%.[Note 2][5].. On the other hand,International Accounting StandardThe definition of hyperinflation is "cumulative price increase of 3% or more in 100 years".[6].

The occurrence of hyperinflation is paralyzing and increasing uncertainty in the currency-mediated exchange economy.[7] This will have a significant impact on the national economy by discouraging production activities and investment.

Hyperinflation is primarily by the government beyond what the economy can affordSignorridgeOccurs when trying to acquire.This time,Money supply Central BankIt was decided exogenously for me, and it is no longerCentral Bank The物 価Can no longer be suppressed.If you print money to increase the nominal money balance in order to acquire Seigniorage, the amount of Seigniorage will actually decrease because of inflation.There is an upper limit to the real seigniorage that the government can obtain, as the inflation-induced loss increases at an accelerating rate as money is printed.If the government prints money in search of more seigniorage from the situation where this limit is reached, inflation will further increase and the government will not be able to secure the desired seigniorage.So, if you try to print more and more money to win Seigniorage, you will end up in a vicious circle of further inflation.This is hyperinflation.This type of hyperinflation may continue until people are expected to change government policy.[8].

In fact, hyperinflation often occurs during periods of defeat and revolution.French RevolutionWhat happened at that timeAssiniaBy reprinting banknotesinflationIs the first hyperinflation in history[9][10].

Gold nuggets and silver nuggetsBullionFix currency value toStandard systemThen, basically, hyperinflation does not occur, but due to the start of the war etc.Standard systemIs often suspended, and at this time, if the government shifts to a managed currency system and the wartime finances are left unchecked, or if a large amount of compensation is incurred (may) due to the defeat, currency credit will be lost and it will suddenly occur. Temporary hyperinflation occurs.In addition to defeats and revolutions, hyperinflation can occur when a country's economic market loses credibility.This is a nature that occurred in Latin countries such as Central and South America and Russian and Eastern European countries, and although investment was made in foreign markets for many years in anticipation of regional economic growth, the results were not sufficient and distrust and anxiety about investment. As a result of fostering a feeling, the currency of the country concerned collapses and the purchasing power is rapidly lost.

The currency depreciation in this case is a market equilibrium process, and the inflation rate tends to stabilize after a sharp adjustment over a relatively short period of time.However, in the Latin European countries of the 19th and early 20th centuries, it led to a large number of immigrants and dispersals, leading to a long-term economic downturn and continued inflation.

An example

18th centuryFrench RevolutionImmediately after hyperinflation, 19th centuryCivil WarRight afterThe United States of AmericaHistorically, there have been records of cases caused by huge war costs, such as hyperinflation in Japan.[11].. Even in the early 20th centuryWorld War IImmediately after the defeatGerman Empire1 trillion times, the empire is overRussian EmpireIs experiencing 600 billion times more hyperinflation[11].

Thomas SargentIt is,1982The treatise "The End of the Four Major Inflation (The Ends of Four Big Inflations) ”, Hungary after World War I (1922 - 1924), Austria (1922- 1923),Poland(1921 -Analysis of hyperinflation that occurred in Germany (1924-1922), 1923)[8]..A common cause of these hyperinflations is the lack of supply capacity due to the decline in domestic production due to wars and revolutions.World War I reparationsIt is a fiat money due to the rapid expansion of the budget deficit due to payment of money.Government billWas the financing of the budget deficit by the issuance of[12].

These hyperinflations eventually became independentCentral BankCreation, a series of measures towards a balanced government budget,Gold standardEnded through the return of[12]..It ended shortly after the central bank refused to finance the budget deficit and the government decided to finance the budget deficit by selling government bonds to the private sector or borrowing from foreign countries.[8][13]..Sargent said that hyperinflation ended when the country covered its budget deficit.finance・ It is said that this is because it changed the way monetary policy should be.[14]..Hyperinflation is largely ended by managing monetary growth with fiscal consolidation plans[15].

Another example of historically famous hyperinflation is Zimbabwe, Argentina.

In South American and African countries, the government's budget deficit was financed by borrowing from abroad.[16]..After that, overseas creditorsDefaultIn anticipation of this, a situation occurred in which the country's lending was suspended.As a result, the government issues currencySignorridgeHyperinflation occurred by relying on and conducting budget deficit financing[17].

ポーランド

Germany

1914,German EmpireAfter the outbreak of World War IGold standardWithdrawal fromMoney supplySwelled four times during the war[18].

After World War I, the German economy continued for a long time with the wartime regime.German blockadeWas exhausted by.furtherAllies OfTreaty of VersaillesBy 1320 billionGold mark OfCompensationPayment was imposed.This was far beyond Germany's ability to pay, and was required to pay in foreign currencies, delaying the payment of compensation.

1923XNUM X Month X NUM X Day,France-ベルギー TheThe United KingdomIt is one of Germany's leading industrial areas and has abundant underground resources.Ruhr regionTheoccupationdid.Against the occupationGerman governmentCalled for a passive resistance movement, and the government guaranteed the wages of the workers who took part in the strike.Inflation had already progressed in Germany since the First World War, but the financial collapse caused by the resistance movement led to a fatal situation, and the supply capacity of the Ruhr industrial zone was lost, resulting in unprecedented hyperinflation. Occurred.

By June of the same year, the money supply had increased 6 times before the war, and general price levels had exceeded 2000 times.[18].マ ル クInflation, which fell by more than 1 digits against the dollar in one year, was enough to issue 7 trillion Deutsche Mark banknotes under the circumstances where one bread was 1 trillion Deutsche Mark.For this reason, Marc at this time said "Papiermark(Marc of paper scraps) ".Banknotes trade by weight, not face value (in effectWeighing currencyIn order to speed up the printing of banknotes, single-sided printing was used, and the face value of banknotes that were already in circulation was corrected with stamps or rubber stamps.

Also, this hyperinflation is called "JewishConfetti "[19] CallAnti-SemitismTypicalConspiracy theoryAlso popular,Adolf HitlerRagaMunich RestitutionIt was also the time when the crisis of hyperinflation would end or not (November 1923, 11).[20]The turmoil was widespread throughout Germany, including the seizure of local government by the left.

In Germany's hyperinflation after World War I,A barCustomers have a few cups in the early hours when prices don't go upbeerIs said to have been ordered at once[21].

1923May 10,Himalmar SchachtReichsbankUnder the initiative of the presidentRentenmarkWith the announcement of the introduction, inflation has almost stopped and prices have stabilized (Rentenmark's miracle).[22][23][24]..Rentenmark can be converted into lenten receivables secured by real estate or industrial machinery,(English edition)It was a banknote issued by the company and was said to have the same value as a 1-karat gold mark, but it was not legal tender.[22].

Eventually, 1 Rentenmark will be exchanged for 1 trillion Papiermark.[25], De facto denomination was done[22]..The following year, 1924, the United States participated in the compensation payment process and provided a loan to Germany.Dose proposalWas adopted.Based on this fundReichsmarkWas issued, and Germany returned to the gold standard, which had been withdrawn since the war.[22]..Germany has entered a period of economic recovery called the relative stability periodWeimar RepublicDid not fall.

However1929 OfWorld DepressionThe German economy collapsed again.inflationPeople and the business community, fearing the return of the government, were opposed to large-scale fiscal mobilization.[26].Heinrich BrüningThe Cabinet responded to this situationDeflationI faced the policy[27], The situation did not improve. The unemployment rate reached 1933% in 44[28].

Old-fashioned political forces have lost expectations from the public and are trying to break the Versailles regimeAdolf HitlerbyPower of the Nazi PartyInvited.Nazi GermanyExpansion of government spending during the regime period,Mefo billPolicy to expand government bonds, including informal ones, was implemented, but these accumulations brought pressure on the money market.[29]..German economic authorities sought to curb inflation by tightly curbing wage and price increases[30].

Yasushi Harada"The Nazi administration ismonetary easingByDeflationBreak away from[Reliability required verification],AutobahnConstruction of theVolkswagen(Popular car) ManufactureIndustrial policyAnd recovered the economy. "[31].

オーストリア

Austria, the defeated nation of World War I, was triggered by hyperinflation when the government and central bank issued money to finance its postwar reparations and used Seigniorage.[16]..As a result, Austria far exceeded the monthly rate of 50% and the annual rate of 1000%.[32]..Austrian hyperinflation stopped in August 1922[13].

ハンガリー

Hungary, which became independent of Austria after World War I, was also hit by intense inflation.Introduced shortly after independence(English edition)Currency value fell sharply in 1925HungarianIt continued until the introduction.

More intense hyperinflation occurred after World War II.Penghe has a monetary value of 16 in the last 1 years垓3000Kyoto1 /[33] However, inflation of more than 20 digits occurred in the first half of 1946.After the war, until the end of 1945, the rate against the dollarExponentialAlthough the inflation rate was almost constant, the inflation rate itself increased exponentially from the beginning of 1946.In other words, the time it takes for prices to double has gradually shortened to one month, one week, and three days.According to a Hungarian who knew at the time, banknotes were still in circulation in the market even when prices doubled in a day, and everyone who got cash used it immediately.[34].

Printed in 1946 10垓[33] The Pengř banknote (which says 10 billion trillion on the banknote) was the highest denomination banknote in history, but it has not been issued.The maximum denomination bill actually issued is 1垓[33] It is a Pengř banknote (the banknote says 1 million trillion).This Hungarian inflation is the worst inflationGuinness BookIt is recorded in. In August 1946, Hungary's hyperinflationForintConverged with the introduction of.

In Hungary's hyperinflation in 1948, workers were paid three times a day, and the wives of workers trying to monetize their checks so that their salaries weren't worthless were at work and in banks all day long. It is said that it was going back and forth between[35].

アルゼンチン

1988, Hyperinflation occurs at an annual rate of 5000 times due to excessive money supply[36].1989Has seen a 50-fold increase in prices compared to the previous year,1991ToDollar peg system OfArgentine pesoUntil the introduction (Cavaro Plan), the economy was in turmoil and the common peopleCloset depositWas almost like scrap paper. Inflation subsided to 1993% annually in 7.4[36](La PlataMiracle[37]).

after that,Fixed exchange rate systemAs a result of maintaining the economy, the Argentine government stagnated due to a slump in trade due to a sharp rise in pesos.2001May 11ToDefaultMake a declaration[38].2002Abolished the fixed exchange rate systemFloating exchange rateWith the transition toInflation targetWas introduced[39].. Inflation reached 2002% in 40, but will subside to 3.8% the following year.[40].

Brazil

1986から1994In the last eight years, hyperinflation of 8 / 2 trillion occurred.Brazilian government1993Announced "Real Plan" in December, currency of dollar pegRealWas introduced in July 1994 to end inflation.[41].

メキシコ

ロシア

第一次大戦からロシア革命期、ロシア政府は1914年の開戦から1918年6月までに541億ルーブルの戦費を支出しており、これは1913年の経常歳出の17.6年分に相当するものであった。これらは政府短期証券、国債、外債の発行などで賄われていたが、1917年10月革命で成立したソビエト(ボリシェビキ)政権は帝政ロシア時代に内外で発行された国債の債務放棄を宣言し国立銀行券の増発で歳費の調達を始めたため、ソ連では1913年物価水準に対して1924年2月には171億倍にまで増加した。一方でボリシェヴィキ政府の債務放棄宣言にも関わらず帝政ロシアが発行したForeign bondsInterest rates did not skyrocket and prices did not plummet.this isInternational InvestorSees the possibility that the Russian Revolution will end in a short period of time, orInternational financial marketThis is because he had taken the view that he would have to take some obligations regarding the debt of imperial Russia as the financing resumed in Russia.[42].

USSRIn Russia after the collapse, the government suspended the compulsory savings system, the central government's production directive was suspended,Comecon systemShortage of supplies due to the collapse ofRussian rubleThe economy was confused due to the decline, and hyperinflation occurred.[43].1992Inflation rate increased 26 times year-on-year[43].. Inflation recorded 1992% in 2150,1996Inflation has settled as a result of IMF lending and guidance[44]..The inflation rate is1993It calmed down 10 times in 1994 and 3.2 times in XNUMX.[43].. But in 1998Asian currency crisisA large amount of foreign currency flowed out and the public finances were in crisis.[45].

ユ ー ゴ ス ラ ビ ア

Congo

トルコ

Zimbabwe

ZimbabweThen, after independence, he implemented a repressive policy against the Great One.Robert MugabeThe president passed a law in 2000 to forcibly expropriate land owned by whites, and in 2007 passed a law to force foreign companies to transfer a majority stake to the government.[46].

As a result of expelling white farmers in the country, the farmers who were the main industry of their own country collapsed, and moredroughtCaught up and caused an extreme shortage in the country[47]..Deterioration of public security also resulted in the outflow of wealthy people.These trends have spurred inflation and2000 eraOnce in, the economy faced fierce inflation that caused it to malfunction.

In the seven years 2000-2007, the money supply reached 7 million times and prices rose 130 million times.[48].. Zimbabwe's inflation rate in July 2008 was 7%[49].

2008At that time, the annual rate reached 220 million%[48], Zimbabwe Reserve Bank devalues ​​currency in AugustdenominationWas done.Due to the influence of subsequent inflationMay 9To 2Zimbabwe dollarAfter the denomination, 20 kinds of banknotes will be issued, and the sameMay 12Issued 100 billion Zimbabwe dollar bills.Inflation of 8 digits or more in the last 23 years, of which about 2008 digits in 14 alone, about 9 digits in 3 months from September, and finally "10 trillion Zimbabwe dollar bills" It was issued.

さ ら に2009May 2, 1TrillionZimbabwe dollar to 1 Zimbabwe dollar, rounded down to 12 digitsdenominationTake action.Eventually, in February of the same year, the Zimbabwean government announced that it would pay civil servant salaries in US dollars, and the Zimbabwe dollar, which was almost like scrap paper, was not officially distributed.May 4With the suspension of distribution of Zimbabwe dollars,United States dollarandSouth African randDue to the introduction of foreign currencies such as, it was forced to announce the abandonment of its own currency.After that, inflation subsided with the use of foreign currency.[50],DeflationIt became.

One of the characteristics of Zimbabwean inflation isインターネットDepending on society世界The point is that the people inside were able to quickly obtain information on price increases.

(I.e.

Inflation, announced by the Central Bank of the Islam on April 2013, 4, has reached 1% in the year to March.[51]..Foreign currency income decreased due to stagnation of exports,Iranian riyalCrashes, actual inflation is expected to be even higher[51].

north korea

ベネズエラ

One of the best in the worldcrudeBoasts reservesベネズエラCrude oil accounted for 9% of total exports, but in 2015Crude oil priceThe Venezuelan economy was in jeopardy when it plunged.2015 OfinflationThe rate is 98.3%[52]Inflation reached 2016% in 700. From 2008 to 2016Bolivar SoberanoCumulative inflation is over 2,000%[53].. July 2018, 7International Monetary FundAt the end of 2018Bolivar SoberanoAnnounced the view that inflation will reach 100 million percent[54]..I can't see the futureEconomyとSecurityThe turmoil has exhausted people's lives, and as of June 2019, more than 6 million people国境BeyondSouth AmericaEach country (コロンビア: About 130 million people,ペルー: 76.8 people,チリ: 28.8 people,エクアドル: 26.3 people,アルゼンチン: 13 people,BrazilIt is estimated that it was leaked to 16.8 people)[55][56][57].

議論

Takuro Morinaga"Hyperinflation occurs when any of the import price, labor cost, or profit becomes extremely large. It is unlikely that the labor cost or profit will increase 10 times, and the reality is that the import price is large. Is to be. "[58].

Prices (total supply costs) = Import price + Labor cost + Profit[58]

EconomistYasuyuki Iida"There are only two countries where hyperinflation occurs. If the continuity of the currency issuer is suspected, for example, if it is occupied by a foreign country, or if it has already been occupied. That is, the country. Can happen in the context of collapse, revolution, and war. "[59].

EconomistMasazumi Wakatabe"Hyperinflation rarely occurs in developed countries. Hyperinflation is more likely to occur when society is in turmoil."[60].

EconomistHideomi Tanaka"Historically, the cause of hyperinflation is mainly the use of seigniorage to finance serious budget deficits, and the resulting rapid monetary growth rate," he said.[61]..Tanaka points out that "there is no historical experience that'hyperinflation was caused by monetary easing to resolve the recession.'"[15].

footnote

[How to use footnotes]

注 釈

  1. ^ The calculation formula is 1.512 = 129.746
  2. ^ The formula is (129.75 -1) * 100 (%)

Source

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