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🌏 | Agricultural product prices are declining, famine and emissions targets are still far away = report


Agricultural product prices are declining, famine and emissions targets are still far away = report

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In the jointly announced FAO / OECD Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030, most agricultural prices will fall substantially slightly over the next decade, with increased productivity meeting the growing demand for population growth over the long term. Pointed out that it will return to the trend.

[Paris XNUMXth Reuters] – The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are productive on the XNUMXth ... → Continue reading


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OECD Agricultural Outlook 2021

Population explosion

Population explosionWhat is (Jinkou Bakuhatsu)?populationIs a word that refers to a rapid increase in.The target scale covers the entire world or a specific country / region.


World populationHas been slowly increasing for a long time,18st centuryから21st centuryIt rapidly increased at a speed that could be called "population explosion". AD1The population, which was about 1 million (estimated) around that time, will be about 1000 million (estimated) 2 years later,1900Has grown to about 16 billion. After that20st century,In particularSecond World WarAfter that, the population will increase significantly,1950To exceed 25 billion people in 50 years2000Has more than doubled to an explosive increase to about 2 billion people[1][2].. The United Nations Population Fund estimates that it exceeded 2011 billion in 70.

21st centuryAt the beginning,Asia,Latin AmericaAnd many otherDeveloping countriesでBirth rateIs declining, and although the world population growth rate is declining,Middle East,AfricaThe birth rate in the region is still high, and the population continues to grow.2038Surpasses 90 billion,2056World population is expected to reach 100 billion[3].

However, the world population growth rate continued to decline, peaking at 1965% in 70-2.06.[3], Although population growth continues, the crisis of population explosion is said to have been far away[Source required]From now on, world-class aging, demographic dividend utilization, regional disparities and immigration will be the focus of population issues.


Population explosion is believed to be due to various events.

Industrial revolution

When the population explosion startedIndustrial revolutionThere is a view that the industrial revolution is a factor because it almost coincides with the time when[Source required].. The following processes can be cited as the process by which the industrial revolution leads to population explosion[Source required].

  • IndustrializationWill increase industrial productionTradeBy other regionsfoodCan be exchanged for穀物The population can be increased without being bound by the production capacity.
  • With the progress of technological innovationMedicalAt the same time as medical developmentServicesBecause it is possible to increase the production volume ofmortality rate(Especially child mortality) is reduced.
  • Train,Steam shipBy doing so, logistics efficiency will be improved and the cost of grain trade will be reduced, and grain trade will be promoted.
  • Chemical fertilizer-Agricultural machineryThe production of cereals and the use of electricity will increase grain output.


Before the birth of chemical fertilizers, the amount of agricultural products per unit area was limited, so the amount of agricultural products could not keep up with the population growth, and the increase was stopped.Malthus OfPopulation theory)[4].. HoweverHarbor Bosch methodOf nitrogenChemical fertilizerThe birth ofCalcium superphosphateWith the birth of phosphorus fertilizer, it has become possible to secure a production volume that can withstand population explosions in Europe and the United States.[4].

The United KingdomInAgricultural revolutionAnd20st centuryInFree tradeIn addition to the progress of1944Started onGreen revolutionThis has allowed cereals to be produced in large quantities at low cost. This isDeveloping countryResulted in an increase in the population's supporting power in.


ModernPreviously, the infant mortality rate was higher than today,InfectionWas difficult to prevent. Because of this, many people are born and many dieProlific deathUnder these circumstances, the population did not increase easily. But modern[When?]After that, as medical technology developedLow birth ratebecome. Due to lower mortalitylifeExtends. In addition, the infant mortality rate will decrease, and the population will increase rapidly. Eventuallybirth OfparadigmChangesLow birth rate and deathMove to. The transition period is not long, but the population growth during this period is very rapid. Also, the development of public health and the reduction of the medical risk of population congestion will alleviate the constraints of population growth.

1970 era,University of Birmingham教授Thomas McCuneExplained the role of health care in the population explosion in the West. this is,Laronde Report, Confirmed by Healthy People, etc.,Health promotionToParadigm shiftBecame a trigger.


UrbanizationThere is a view that population migration due to population increase births and lead to population explosion[Source required].

After the Industrial Revolution,cityPopulation concentration to the youthWorker RuralIt was decided to leave and to concentrate in large quantities in the city. Various in rural areasmoral-culture・Youths who have left the institutional restrictions have given birth to many children in the city. For this reason, in the city, the natural population increased along with the inflowing population, causing a population explosion.

Poverty and inequality

United Nations Population FundIn its 2011 World White Paper, it announced that in some of the world's poorest countries,Birth rateHeight stagnates development,povertyPoint out that it has been prolonged. The white paper saysFinancial inequality-povertyとSocial inequalityAs the existence of the population is causing the population to grow, and that population growth is causing further poverty and inequality, it is proposed that breaking this vicious circle is a challenge for humankind.


Population explosion brings various shortages.Food shortage,Water shortage,, and so on. as a resultpovertyIs brought about. As a result, they will always put their full effort into these purchases, and investment will be small, limiting the increase in productivity.

Economic growth theoryThe population increase is said to be a factor that reduces per capita capital and makes them poor. In fact, per capita long termGDPLooking at the growth rate and the population growth rate, the higher the population growth rate, the lower the growth rate of real GDP per capita[5].

As a result of population growth, rural inability to support the population will increase the inflow to cities. As a result, cities will lack various facilities and services. The living environment of the city will deteriorate and efficiency will be greatly impaired. Increased populationdevelopment ofBy advancingEnvironmental destruction,resourceProblems such as depletion also occur. Due to increased energy consumptionGlobal warmingFor the purpose of accelerating progress and eliminating shortages戦 争There is also the risk of an outbreak.


The problems of overpopulation are alwaysHistoryHas been affected.


ChugokuThe population has been increasing and decreasing rapidly. First, a unified government will be born and a unified policy will be put in place, so that people's lives will be improved and the population will begin to grow. Population growth and production growth start to shiftpovertyOccurs.famineAnd aimed at the rehabilitation内 戦Will cause the population to drop sharply. Moreover, population growth will begin under the unified government. This cycle has been repeated. However, because there are many cases of foreign enemies invading from outside the regime of China's government, the civil war does not necessarily mean that the population is declining.

clearDue to the development of agricultural technology (the introduction of agricultural crops originating in the New World) from the generation, the increase in arable land accelerated the population increase. From the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century, the People's Republic of China has the largest population in the world,one child policyDeclining birthrate and aging population2010 eraIt is expected that the population will decline soon.


Japan’s population isEdo PeriodIt is said that there were about 2600 million people. The population remained at this levelThinningBecause there was a custom of doing (child-killing)[6].Kanto regionとTohoku regionThen.Common people Ofpoverty"Thinning" is particularly active due tocityThen.Craftsman,businessman OfCustomsDue to decadenceInjusticeThe rampage was mainly due to. AlsoOroku OfsamuraiAlso done in rank[7].

Japan's populationOpeningAfter that, it begins to increase rapidly. The population of Japan, which was 1872 million in 5 (Meiji 3480), exceeded 1912 million in 45 (Meiji 5000) and reached 1936 million in 11 (Showa 6925). .. This is because the number of households of large families increased due to the punishment of thinning, and health and medical care since the Meiji era.public healthImproving standards, increasing agricultural productivity,IndustrializationIt was a population explosion caused by factors such as the improvement of the income level of the people and the stability of living due to economic development due to[8].

In addition, due to the liberalization of residences since the Meiji era, the increase in the urban population was particularly rapid.World War IAfterrecessionでUnemployedNumber increasedShowaIn the beginningOverpopulationIs serious社会 問題Became. To solve this, the governmentBrazil) ToImmigrationEncouragement campaign was conducted, but the effect of population control was limited[9].

Second World WarFirst in 1947 to 1949 after the social and economic turmoil ofBaby boomOccurs. The population growth rate has exceeded 2% per annum with the addition of salvage from outside land. The population of 1948 million in 23 was over 8000 million in 1956 and over 31 million in 9000. At that time, Japan became the country with the seventh largest population after China, India, the United States, the Soviet Union, Indonesia and Pakistan. It is calculated that the total population has tripled in 1967 years. Between 42 and 1, a second baby boom occurred due to the marriage and birth of the first baby boom generation. But after the warEugenic protection lawThe birth rate is on the decline overall due to the fact that artificial abortion was recognized under the (Current Maternal Protection Act).2008Has reached a peak of 1 million and has entered a declining population.Low birthrate and aging populationIs becoming a social problem[8][10].


  1. ^ [Green Horizon 5] "Earth Crisis" with a world population of over 70 billion / Norihiro Mitsuhashi, Professor Emeritus, Chiba University of Commerce(Entrepreneurs club February 2012 issue: VENTURE STORY)
  2. ^ United Nations Population Division (1999) The World at Six Billion
  3. ^ a b [1]United Nations Population Division World Population Estimate 2015
  4. ^ a b National Institute for Agro-Environmental Science "Information: Agriculture and Environment No.104 (December 2008, 12) Achievements of Chemical Fertilizers and Soil Fertilizer Studies"
  5. ^ Is population decline the root of all evil?WEDGE Infinity September 2015, 3
  6. ^ Conflict between parent and child-Parental killing, child killing Tadashi Moriyama
  7. ^ NDL Digital Collection "Abortion Thinning Study" page 9~54 page (Editor / Publisher:Central Social Work AssociationPublished by Institute of Social Business:1936(Showa(11 years)May 10) (Retrieved November 2018, 11.)
  8. ^ a b Changes in Japan's population since the Meiji era
  9. ^ Unemployment and Asian Labor Market in Interwar Japan-Michiya Kato, Osaka Sangyo University
  10. ^ Section 1 Changes in Socioeconomic Conditions Surrounding Youth

Related literature


  • Angus Deaton, Translated "Great Escape-Health, Money, Origin of Gap" Misuzu Shobo, 2014. (Original Angus Stewart, Deaton (2013), The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality, Princeton: Princeton University Press ï¼‰

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