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🌏 | US Senate Republican Party Top, Treasury Secretary Informed Non-Cooperation by Raising Debt Cap


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US Senate Republican Party Top, Treasury Secretary Informed Non-Cooperation by Raising Debt Cap

 
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Under these circumstances, International Monetary Fund (IMF) spokesman Rice pointed out at a regular press conference that the United States needs to avoid "unproductive brinkmanship" and seek a solution to the problem of debt caps.
 

[Washington, XNUMXth Reuters] – US Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell tells Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ... → Continue reading

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Brinkmanship

Brinkmanship(Setogisei Saku,British: Brinkmanship) OrBrinkmanship tactics(Setogiwa Senjutsu) urges the negotiating partner to make concessions by increasing tension.PoliticsIt is a technique.外交In the fieldBrink foreign policyIt is also called (Setogiwagaiko).Under the Cold WarEisenhowerIn the administrationJohn Foster DullesSecretary of StateQuoted as a term for foreign policy that escalate demands on the other party[1].

Famous historical brinkmanship

Munich talks
1938 ,GermanyPresidentAdolf HitlerIs ready to go to warSudetenSeeking cededMunich talksInBritish-BuddhaConcession (Ceded in Sudetenland)Appeasement policy).But the next yearPolish invasionThen the two countries chose a full-scale confrontation, and the brinkmanship policySecond World WarWas to cause.
Cuban crisis
1962 ,America OfJohn F. KennedyPresidentIt is,キ ュ ー バToNuclear missileTo prevent installationNuclear warTaking a brinkmanship policy of not resigningSoviet UnionHe pulled out a concession on the side (removal of nuclear missiles).
Pueblo case
1968 , South KoreaPresidentPark ParkAttempted to assassinate (Blue tile stand attack attempt case) Immediately afterDemocratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea)Is an American warshipPuebloAnd the crew member was captured and taken hostage.North Korea's allySoviet UnionIs astonished and in the worst caseSuperpowerIt was a situation that could lead to a war between each other.Vietnam WarWas in the middle ofAmericaWas forced to make concessions, and North Korea was not subject to retaliation for the attempted attack on the Blue House.
North Korea nuclear issue
1994 ,north korea OfKim Il SungChairmanIt is,nuclear weaponsBy advancing nuclear development that seems to be usefulAmericaToLight water reactorOffer andheavy oilWas allowed to supply.
Iraq war
Iraq flickered the existence of nuclear weapons that it did not actually have, and restrained Iran and the United States, but in reality it made a mistake in its eyes and led to the start of the war.An example where the tension was raised too much.Arrested at a later dateSaddam Hussein"I didn't really think the United States would attack," he said.

footnote

  1. ^ Power and Peace: The Diplomacy of John Foster Dulles by Frederick Marks (1995) ISBN-0 275-95232-0

Related item

外部 リンク

International Monetary Fund

International Monetary Fund(Kokusa Famine,English: International Monetary Fund, IMF) IsUnited Nations(UN)Specialized institutionone of.International financeとexchangeIt was established for the purpose of stabilizing the market.HeadquartersThe United States of AmericaThe capital ofWashington DC.. As of 2018, there are 189 member countries[2].

Of member countriesCentral BankIt plays a role like coordinatingInternational tradePromotion, high levels of employment and rising national income in member states,exchangeThe purpose is to contribute to the stability of.In particular,Current account balanceIt provides loans to member countries that have deteriorated, and monitors exchange rates and exchange policies of each country.World BankTogether, it forms the basis of the international financial order.

History

Bretton Woods regime

1929 OfWorld DepressionHas hit the world's economic systemGold standardWas abandoned in most countries.There is no international organization that has jurisdiction over international finance and exchange, which has contributed to the economic turmoil.Currency devaluation competition between countries, and some countries rushed to arms race and aggression to survive the economic turmoil.Second World WarWas caused.For this reason, as part of the Allied postwar vision, the establishment of an international organization to cooperate and coordinate between countries regarding international finance and exchange rates was envisioned.About this organization in EnglandJohn Maynard KeynesPlan and AmericanHarry whiteTwo of the proposals were submitted, but the final organization was close to White's proposal.

1944 October,The United States of AmericaNew HampshireBretton WoodsFor the purpose of stabilizing international finance and foreign exchange ratesUnited Nationsof"金融-finance"Meeting" was held."" Signed at this conferenceBretton Woods AgreementStable as part of post-WWII reconstruction measurescurrencyThe establishment of the International Monetary Fund to secure the systemInternational Reconstruction and Development BankDetermined with1945 May 12Founded in 29 countries[3][4].

1947 The IMF Agreement came into effect in March and started actual operations.again,United NationsConcluded an agreement with the United NationsSpecialized institutionIt became.on the other hand,Soviet UnionParticipated in the Bretton Woods Conference but did not ratify it after all, and the Soviet Union and socialist countries1949 ToComecon(COMECON) was established and "Bretton Woods regimeI will stand outside the frame.As a result, the IMF's headquarters was located in Washington, DC, the capital of the United States, and it became an organization with a strong voice in the United States, which has a diminished economic power.

When it was first launched, it physically transported currencies exchanged in the foreign exchange market.I couldn't see thisEuropean Economic Cooperation OrganizationIn 1950European Payments UnionMade.This is for forex transactions that settle at the end of each monthBill exchange systemIs. 1958, enoughCash flowIn the form ofEuropean Monetary AgreementWas reorganized into.No need for consent from European countries to carry out business, insteadEconomic Cooperation Development OrganizationWas in charge of the command.The agreement ended in 1972 and the IMF took over its business.

The International Monetary Fund forms the basis of the postwar economic order and is the IMF system (Bretton Woods regimeUnder this economic system called), Western countries gradually prospered.The basis of this system is the United States "Fri 1Ounce35US dollarAnd each country pegged to that dollarFixed exchange rate systemAnomalous to takeGold standardWas made up of[5].Gold standardSince the currencies of each country are pegging to the US dollar, the currency system at this time is also called the "gold / dollar standard system".During this period, the IMF's main goal was to liberalize the exchange of exchanges among participating countries, and aimed to shift from the IMF Article 14 countries, which can restrict exchanges due to the balance of payments deficit, to the IMF Article 8 countries, which cannot.This goal isWestern EuropeIn each country1961 In Japan, it was achieved in 1964.

However, from around this time, Western European countries and Japan developed rapidly, while the United States became economically sluggish.This loss of relative economic advantage of the United States has been negatively evaluated by the market, and a large amount of gold has flowed out of the United States.Also by the United StatesVietnam WarMilitary intervention has increased US war costs and exacerbated US budget deficits.And, in the world, trust in the US dollar has further declined. IMF system (Bretton Woods regime) Began to fluctuate.

To remedy this situation, the IMF1969 Is a public reserve asset to supplement existing reserve assets such as gold and dollars by the revision of the first agreement ofSpecial withdrawal right(SDR) ”was established.As a result, in addition to the direct borrowing from the IMF up to that point, member countries will be able to use the IMF's "free currency" (as of 2018, dollars, pounds, euros, yen, and yuan) in a basket of currencies. Although it was possible to accommodate a currency, the US trade deficit and credibility continued to decline.The outflow of gold from the United States continued.

And finally1971 May 8,America'sRichard NixonThe president has announced a shocking suspension of the conversion of US dollars and gold.As a result, the "gold / dollar standard" collapsed (see "Details".Nixon shockSee).This is at the same timeBretton Woods regimeIt also meant the collapse of.

In response to this announcement by the United States, countries around the world sought a new international currency system, and on December 1971, 12, for the time being, the pillar was the revision of the exchange rate between the dollar and each country's currency.Smithsonian Agreement", AndFixed exchange rate systemHowever, the dollar's plunge did not stop and the fixed exchange rate system became unsustainable.And all over the worldFloating exchange rateAdopt1973 The Smithsonian regime was to collapse completely.In response to this situation, the IMF1976 Adopted the "Kingston Agreement", which included the approval of the floating exchange rate system and the abolition of the official price of gold, and came into effect in 1978.[6]..In the world economy, a new "Kingston system" based on the floating exchange rate system has begun.

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system

Since the mid-1970s, addressing economic and debt problems in developing countries has become one of the IMF's major goals.[7]..Loans to developed countries1978 Is almost gone[8]Financing to developing countries has become one of the IMF's main objectives.This led to a stalemate in postwar reconstruction and a duplication of operations with the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank Group, which had specialized in financial assistance for development.

From time to time, due to the subsequent decline in resource prices and the effects of unreasonable industrial development strategies in the 1970s, it began to occur frequently in Latin American and African countries in the 1980s.

In response, the IMF provided bailout loans to developing countries.Until then, the IMF's lending terms were not very strict.[9]However, in making this loan, the IMF believes that the root of the problem is not the ability to pay but the liquidity of the funds, that is, it is not incapable of paying debt, but only a temporary shortage of cash flow. The IMF has set ancillary conditions to have the government of the country take over and improve the current account balance.

Developing countries followed the IMF's recommendations by raising taxes, reducing government spending, privatizing, liberalizing the economy, devaluing currencies, etc.[10]..Collectively, these policies are called "IMF Structural Adjustment "Called.This IMF structural adjustment policy was widely implemented in developing countries in Latin America and Asia / Africa, but it did not bring about economic growth, especially in Africa, and on the contrary caused economic stagnation and deterioration.[11]..The program also causes recessions and stagnation in employment, education and healthcare in developing countries such as Africa, South America and Asia.1987 ToUnited Nations Children's Fund(UNICEF) severely criticizes the IMF's structural adjustment[12]..At the same time, a debt crisis also occurred in Latin America, and structural adjustments were made by the IMF, but this also failed without causing economic growth, and the economic situation worsened.[13].

Structural adjustments in Africa are not just unsuccessfulOfficial development assistanceDeveloped countries urged recipient countries to implement structural adjustment policies as a prerequisite[14]As a result, the intervention of the IMF and the World Bank has become very significant.The principle of non-interference in domestic affairsThere were also criticisms that it would fall out.[15].

On the other hand, due to the magnitude of the pain associated with such structural adjustments, the results that are not commensurate with them, the balance with vested interests, and the low administrative capacity of the country itself, structural adjustments do not proceed slowly, or the government is as formal as possible. Cases of trying to get rid of such reforms also occurred frequently, especially in the 1980s.[16]..But against these resistances1991 OfKenyaThe IMF forced countries with delayed structural adjustments to implement structural adjustments by taking measures such as suspending new loans.[17].

In the late 1980sSoviet UnionThe decline ofPerestroikaWith IMF in the flow ofEastern countriesThe relationship with has improved.And1989 ToEastern European RevolutionWith the outbreak and the collapse of the socialist regime, it became one of the IMF's important duties to support the market-oriented economicization of these countries and to restore them economically. Since 1990, the Soviet Union has been requesting support one after another.1991 The end of theCollapse of the Soviet UnionWhenRussian FederationIncludingIndependent state communityAssistance to (CIS) countries has been added to this. The IMF proposed a radical market economy, so-called shock therapy, to these former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries, but inflation and austerity hurt people's lives.[18][19]..This policy has not been successful overall, especially in Russia.1998 ToRussian financial crisisIt became one of the causes of causing.

In December 1994, Mexico suffered a capital balance crisis, but IMF provided a $ 12 billion loan at this time.[20]The economy recovered quickly as each country provided large-scale support.[21].

1997 In 7 monthThailandIt started with the currency crisis inAsian currency crisisIn IMF, ThailandIndonesia- South KoreaAssistance was provided to the three countries.However, the basic economic conditions of these countries are not so bad, and the credit crunch is further exacerbated by the fact that rapid capital outflows were the problem, but they took policies such as austerity and structural reforms that had nothing to do with it. Expanded and the three countries were hit by a serious recession[22][23]..Strict lending conditions (conditionality) to these countries will lead to a lot of criticism later, as they included many uniform fiscal austerity measures and governance reforms that are not directly related to improving the external balance. This led to a later review of the conditionality.

Strengthening the financial base after the financial crisis

2008 In the previous year's AmericanSubprime mortgage crisisIn September, starting fromLehman BrothersBankruptcy (Lehman shock)World financial crisisOutbreak, the IMF assisted member states in financial crisis.Under these circumstances, there was an urgent need to strengthen the financial base of the IMF, which is the source of support. In principle, IMF lending is funded by quotas funded by member countries, but IMF voting rights are proportional to quotas, so negotiations for a capital increase will take time.Therefore, for the time being, large-scale capital increase negotiations will be held in parallel while expanding the financial base by borrowing from member countries. Japan announces $ 2008 billion loan to IMF at the 11st G1 Summit in November 20[24](Concluded in April 2009)[25]..After that, the expansion of the financial base by lending from member countries to the IMF became a flow of international debate, and at the 2009rd G9 Summit in September 3, it was confirmed that the financial base of the IMF was expanded to a maximum of $ 20 billion. ..[26]

On December 2010, 12, the Board of Governors revised the 15th Quota General Review, which doubles the total amount of IMF quotas, and the 14th Agreement Amendment for Governance Reforms such as the Transition to All Directors Appointment System. Was resolved (IMF 2010 reform).[27] However, the 2010 reforms required the acceptance of more than 85 countries with a voting share of 113% or more for their entry into force, but in the United States, which has a voting right share of 15% or more and effectively vetoed. The effect was significantly delayed due to the delay in domestic approval, and finally came into effect on January 2016, 1.[28]

Main meeting

Every fall, we hold a joint general affairs meeting with the World Bank called the Annual General Meeting.It also holds the International Monetary and Financial Committee twice a year.

General meeting(English: World Bank IMF General Assembly) Is once every autumn,World BankIt will be held jointly with.

International Monetary and Financial Commission(English: International Monetary and Financial Committee, IMFC) is held twice a year.

Constitution

There are a board of directors and a board of directors as decision-making bodies.

"English: Board of governors(TypicallyGeneral council(Translated as) ”is one general affairs per country (translated as)Minister of Finance,Central BankPresidentEtc.) and one general affairs deputy, the highest decision-making body, held once a year[29]..Voting rights are given according to the payment ratio of the investment.This investment is the source of funds for the IMF and is determined according to the size of the economy.

"English: Executive board(TypicallyBoard of directorsIs translated as) ”is an executive body related to the normal business of the IMF with 24 directors.Countries with less voting rights form one board of directors in multiple countries.[30]

Executive

As of 2016, there are 24 directors[31]..All directors are elected by member states.

Formerly the top five IMF investor countries (The United States of America,The United Kingdom,France,Germany,Japan) Appointed directors one by one in each country, and the remaining member countries elected 19 elected directors by voting, but as part of the structural reform of the IMF, the appointed directors were abolished and all 24 directors were elected as member countries. The 2010th Agreement was amended to be elected by (December 12 Resolution of the Board of Governors)[32], Effective January 2016, 1[33]).

"English: managing director(In generalmanaging director”Chairs the Board of Directors and represents the International Monetary Fund.The managing director is to be elected by the board.[34]World BankTo the president of米 国Just as the graduates are elected, the managing director of the International Monetary FundEuropeIt is customary to take office as a graduate. (Also, among the deputy managing directors appointed by the directors, the first deputy managing director has always been from the United States.) In the past election process, Japan succeeded Kamdosh.Eisuke SakakibaraFormer Treasury to replace Strauss-KahnCentral Bank of MexicoThe appointment of President Karl Carstens has also been considered.

代managing directorCountryInaugurationResignation
1Replace this image JA.svg(English edition)Belgian flag ベルギーNovemberNovember
2Replace this image JA.svg(English edition) ã‚¹ã‚¦ã‚§ãƒ¼ãƒ‡ãƒ³NovemberNovember
3Replace this image JA.svgPer JacobssonNovemberNovember
4Replace this image JA.svg(English edition)French flag FranceNovemberNovember
5Johan Witteveen.jpg(English edition)Dutch flag NetherlandsNovemberNovember
6Replace this image JA.svg(English edition)French flag FranceNovemberNovember
7Camdessu.gif(English edition)NovemberNovember
8Horst Köhler.jpgHorst kohlerGerman flag GermanyNovemberNovember
ActingAnne O. Krueger (2004) .jpgAnne Osborne KrugerUnited States flag The United States of AmericaNovemberNovember
9RODRIGO RATO RT-8 01.JPG(English edition)Spanish flag スペインNovemberNovember
10Strauss-Kahn, Dominique (official portrait 2008) .jpgDominique Strauss-KahnFrench flag FranceNovemberNovember
ActingLipsky, John (IMF) .jpg(English edition)United States flag The United States of AmericaNovemberNovember
11UMP regional elections IlM 2010-02-18 n07.jpgChristine LagardeFrench flag FranceNovemberNovember
ActingReplace this image JA.svgDavid LiptonUnited States flag The United States of AmericaNovemberNovember
12Kristalina Georgieva Headshot.jpg(English edition) ãƒ–ルガリアNovember(Current position)

Investment amount and voting rights

Most of IMF's financing resources are mainly funded by quotas (equity allotment) paid by member countries, and the quota funds are supplemented by borrowing from some member countries.Concessional loans and debt relief for low-income countries are separately funded by contribution-based trust funds.[35]

Voting rights at the IMF are based on the following quotas (investment amount), not one vote per country.In addition to the basic votes (about 750 votes), each member country will be given one vote for every 100,000 SDR invested.[36]The 2010 quota reform has significantly increased the proportion of emerging economies, and the four BRICs have always entered 4 countries.The investment ratio is as follows as of January 10.Discussions on the 2018th General Quota Review are currently underway, and the review will be completed by the Fall 1 Annual Meeting.[37]

Top 2018 investment countries and number of votes as of 10[38])
RankingCountryInvestment amount (quarter) Unit: 100 millionSDRProportionVotesPercentage of total votes
1United States flag The United States of America82,994.217.46831,40716.52
2Japanese flag Japan30,820.56.48309,6706.15
3Flag of the People's Republic of China Chugoku30,482.96.41306,2946.09
4German flag Germany26,634.45.60267,8095.32
5British flag The United Kingdom20,155.14.24203,0164.03
5French flag France20,155.14.24203,0164.03
7Italian flag ã‚¤ã‚¿ãƒªã‚¢15,070.03.17152,1653.02
8Indian flag India13,114.42.76132,6092.64
9Russian flag ãƒ­ã‚·ã‚¢12,903.72.71130,5022.59
10Brazilian flag Brazil11,042.02.32111,8852.22
All 189 countries475,472.9100.05,031,614100.0

Relationship between Japan and IMF

Japan joined the IMF in August 1952 as the 8rd member country.In JapanFinance LawWas amended and was enforced.After that, as Japan's economic power increased, foreign exchange liberalization was required as mentioned above.1964 In (39), there was a shift from Article 14 countries, which can restrict exchange rates due to the deficit of the balance of payments, to Article 8 countries, which cannot.

1965 In (40), about 2 million dollars (Japanese currency equivalent 2500 billion yen) for IMF,International Reconstruction and Development BankAdditional investment of 1 million dollars (660 million yen in Japanese currency equivalent)[39]..For the first time after the war because of the contribution of this contributionJapanese Government BondWas issued (at that time the Prime MinisterEisaku Sato,Bank of JapanThe president isUsami)[40].1970 In (45), due to the increase in the investment rate, it became possible to elect an appointed director.2006 In (18), became the first Japanese secretary-general of the World Bank-IMF Joint Development Committee.2010 Was in that position for up to 4 years[41][Annotation 1].

As of January 2018, Japan is the second largest investor in the IMF and has elected a director on its own.The Governer is the Minister of Finance, and the Alternate is the Governor of the Bank of Japan.In addition, of the four deputy managing directors enrolled as of January 1, one is a former Japanese director.TreasurerIsMitsuhiro Furusawa(Arrive in March 2015)[42].

Since 1997, a deputy managing director has been elected from the Japanese for four consecutive generations.However, as of January 4, the number of Japanese employees remains at 2017 (1% of the total).[43]..In addition, the IMF Asia Pacific Regional Office will serve as a contact point in the Asia Pacific region.TokyoChiyoda WardUchisaiwaichoIs installed in[44].

IMF surveillance

The IMF oversees the international monetary system and the economic and financial sector policies of 189 member countries.This activity, called surveillance, takes place at the international and national levels, in which the IMF identifies possible risks to stability and advises on necessary policy adjustments.This will allow the IMF to achieve the main objective of the international monetary system, which is to maintain economic growth by facilitating the exchange of goods, services and capital between countries and ensuring the conditions necessary for financial and economic stability. To contribute.[45]

IMF Article 4 consultation

Based on Article 4 of the IMF Agreement, the IMF conducts a survey once a year in principle to evaluate the economic conditions of member countries and policies such as fiscal, financial and foreign exchange ("IMF Article 4 consultation").Economists visited member countries, focusing on exchange rate, financial, fiscal, and financial sector policies, and macro-critical (macroeconomically decisive) structural reforms with member governments and central banks. Discuss economic and financial conditions (mission).Many member states have issued staff statements at the end of the IMF mission.After returning to headquarters based on discussions with the authorities, staff submitted a report for discussions at the IMF Board of Directors.The Board's views are then reported to Member State authorities, ending a process called Article 4 consultation.Almost all member states have now agreed to publish a press release that summarizes the views of the Board and the IMF staff reports and related analysis, which are published on the IMF website.[45]  In addition to the analysis of the member countries' economies, the Article 4 consultation report also includes policy recommendations. For example, in the 2017 Article 4 consultation report on Japan, the issues of rapid aging and declining labor force He pointed out that he made recommendations such as efforts for structural reforms to increase wages and improve productivity, maintain a sustainable monetary easing stance, and raise the consumption tax by 0.5% or 15% to XNUMX%. ..[46][47]

Multilateral surveillance

In addition to individual country surveillance, the IMF monitors economic conditions at the global and regional levels and analyzes the spillover effects of member country policies on the world economy.Multilateral surveillance is conducted primarily through the regularly published World Economic Outlook (WEO), the Global Financial Stability Repoort (GFSR), and the Fiscal Monitor (FM). Will be done. WEO presents a detailed analysis of the global economy and its growth prospects, addressing issues such as the macroeconomic impact of global financial turmoil and crossing economic and monetary policy borders in systematic countries and regions. Assess the main potential spillover effects, with a particular focus on cross-cutting impacts. The GFSR assesses global capital market conditions and financial imbalances and vulnerabilities that pose risks to financial stability. FM presents the latest medium-term fiscal outlook and assesses the public finance situation.In addition, the External Sector Report (ESR), which analyzes the external positions of countries and regions that occupy important positions in the financial system, and the economic situation to the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting / G20 Summit. The analysis is published in various forms such as the report of.[45]

Criticism

The IMF's lending imposes strict lending conditions (conditionality) on target countries, such as fiscal austerity measures and structural reforms, but the conditions are not aimed at economic growth, but rather domestically to balance the current account balance. The purpose is to cool the economy[48]..In addition, the economic situation may even worsen due to ignoring the economic conditions of the target country and imposing uniform policies.[49], Often the subject of criticism. Economist Joseph E. Stiglitz and others have also criticized the IMF's conditionality.

Scandal

In 2011, he was an active managing directorDominique Strauss-KahnWas arrested by U.S. authorities on suspicion of attempted rape of a womanMediaIt was taken up every day.If there is a gap in the IMF's policy management due to the arrest of top Strauss-Kahn,financeThe crisis worsensGovernment bondYields are skyrocketingGreeceThere was growing concern that the response to important issues, such as the problem and the situation in the Middle East and North Africa, which is causing the rise in crude oil prices, would be delayed.

After the incident,Dominique Strauss-KahnResigned as managing director,Christine LagardeWas elected as a successor.However, the prosecution's criminal charge withdrawal application was filed and the prosecution was dismissed because the testimony of the woman who later complained of the damage was not credible and it was difficult to prove the sexual crime.[50].

footnote

注 釈

  1. ^ What is the World Bank / IMF Joint Development Committee?G7The Ministers of Finance, Ministers of Development, etc. of 24 countries in developed and developing countries, including the World Bank, gathered together to discuss important topics at the time on the issue of development assistance to developing countries, and the World Bank / IMF General Affairs Committee. It is a high-level meeting that makes recommendations to the United States.The Executive Secretary will manage the Committee in consultation with the Chair of the Development Committee, the President of the World Bank, and the Managing Director of the IMF.The Japanese government has enacted the "Act on Measures Concerning Membership in the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development" (Act 27 of 191), which stipulates that the government can legally invest in the IMF and how to invest.

Source

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Coordinate: North Latitude 38 Degrees 54 Minutes 00 Seconds 77 degrees 2 minutes 39 seconds west longitude /38.90000 N, 77.04417 W / 38.90000; -77.04417


 

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