Exchange stability is very important, continue to watch trends = Deputy Cabinet Secretariat Isozaki
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Deputy Secretary Isozaki is currently collecting information, and said that he will consider how to deal with it, saying, "We are taking all possible measures for crisis management.
[Tokyo XNUMXth Reuters] – Deputy Secretary-General Yoshihiko Isozaki spoke at a press conference on the morning of the XNUMXth about the current exchange level ... → Continue reading
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The concept of crisis management came to be advocatedSecond World WarIt is a situation from the nuclear era after the end of the war, and armed conflict between nations due to Osgood and Khan etc.Nuclear warIt was pointed out that there was a danger of expanding to. They’re the root cause of the conflictNational interestCompetitive intentionally dangerous to pursue国際 関係And the function of such interactionspolicyof,strategyHe insisted on the need for crisis management to be effectively controlled.
It originates from the study of measures to avoid the invasion of World War I, the expansion of the front line, and the escalation to the situation that causes great damage. So now,Disaster prevention,Crime prevention,Counterterrorism,CompanymanagementVarious crises (Multi hazard), but originally, inter-national security is supposed to be the central issue..
Verification of precedents and hierarchization/combined use
- "How far are you prepared for a disaster with a low probability?" is a difficult problem. He said, "Is it necessary to prepare for the fall of heaven? (The etymology of melancholy)" "Is it necessary to prepare for UFO invasion?" "Is it necessary to prepare for an asteroid collision?" "Need to prepare for nuclear fusion "Are there any?" "Is it necessary to prepare for a war?" In the Japanese Diet, similar questions and answers have been asked.
- "Validating the past precedent" is the "strong guideline" for "decision of necessity of preparation".
- In the example above, the unprecedented "Collapse of Heaven" "Aggression of UFOs" is treated as anxiety "unless there is a good scientific basis"
- On the other hand, there are precedent examples such as "asteroid collision", "war", "nuclear reactor core meltdown", "great earthquake", etc. So even if it seems silly as a skin sensation, "I assume that it has happened in the past The sensation of the skin that seems to be ridiculous is the illusion of human beings as animals" and corrects the illusion, and then begins "danger prediction" "avoidance behavior" "disaster preparedness in case of failure to avoid" I have to do it. This is because once a major disaster occurs, the excuse "unexpected" cannot be passed, as long as there is a precedent.
- The above-mentioned sensory illusion is caused by bringing an individual's daily feeling into organizational management.
- However, in our daily life, it is inappropriate in terms of cost to prepare for such a “unprobable catastrophe”.
- Generally, the lower the probability, the lower the cost is required to manage the crisis, so the crisis management is delegated to the “senior regional organization”.
- For example, the low probability and global issue of asteroid collisions is now being rushed by the US government, a Western leader, to NASA to seek asteroids and determine their orbits. Although about 15 were discovered, hundreds of thousands (including the 1km diameter class that would cause a large damage to a radius of several hundred kilometers in the event of a collision) are still undiscovered, so a joint search between nations is required. .. In addition, it is necessary to deal with war and nuclear fusion at the national level.
- Taking the example of tsunami countermeasures in the earthquake disaster, as a way to save lives more reliably and at lower cost than investing a high cost and blindly constructing a seawall, it is possible to give individual education through school education and public broadcasting in peacetime. If you feel a big tremor, you should think that there is a tsunami and evacuate to a higher ground.TendenkoIt is effective to publicize the idea of ".
- In case of fire, prepare for a small-scale tempura oil fire, etc.Fire extinguisherCompanies that use flammable materials should prepare for each store, but buying a fire engine individually at each store is too expensive, so the local government prepares a fire engine. The preparations carried out by the private sector are at bestSelf-defense disaster prevention organization,Self-defense fire departmentStay by. In the nuclear power plant accident caused by the earthquake, the arrival of power supply vehicles was delayed due to road damage and congestion due to the earthquake, but it was costly to buy a large transport helicopter and gas turbine generator that cost 40 billion yen at each local fire department. It is too low, so it is cheaper for the country, which is a high-ranking regional organization, to take charge of it and use it as a large-scale transport helicopter for the Self-Defense Forces to develop a gas turbine generator air transport system.
- In this way, with regard to the cost of responding to a catastrophe with a low probability, it is common to provide low-cost and high-quality security by means of "supporting a wide area by a senior organization" and "combining it with other equipment". Risk management system.
"There is a low probability that you do not have to prepare" is wrong
- As described above, for major disasters with low probability, the correct response is to "check history and verify precedents" and "if there is a precedent, raise it to a regional senior organization and use it at a low cost". ``Incorporating a sense of personality into crisis management of organizational problems, trusting the biological illusion that seems to be ridiculous in catastrophe assumptions, or because of financial difficulties, without considering the precedents in the heald It is the error that is most likely to occur in crisis management and risk prediction, when dealing with "event = foolish melancholy and neglecting risk management".
- The basis of such crisis management should be educated by school education originally, but since it is not in the curriculum of education of the school, the person in charge of the senior organization makes the above error and the crisis management response is made. The reality is that there are many cases where people become muddy.
Critical points of crisis management
- In fact, 8% of the risk prediction/prevention/preparation at the time of occurrence occurs before it occurs.
- For example, in crisis management for war
- Predict and prevent war
- In case of failure to evade, it is necessary to prepare a plan for countermeasures during normal times, prepare equipment and consumables, and train soldiers.
- It takes about two years to manufacture weapons, etc., and after the war broke out, I couldn't make time even if I rushed to make an operation, ordered the weapons, and started training.
- Basically, it is a mistake to catch crisis management with post-processing of mud ropes.
As a post-processing, with preparation
- Minimize the damage that is currently occurring
- Crisis escalation/prevent secondary damage
- Ending the crisis and returning to a normal state
It usually consists of the following 6 stages.
- Prevention: Prevent crisis
- Grasp: Grasp and recognize crisis situations and situations
- Loss assessment: Assess the loss and damage caused by a crisis
- Countermeasure evaluation: Evaluate the cost of crisis countermeasures
- Examination: devise and examine concrete action plans and action plans for crisis measures
- Invoking: issuing and directing a concrete action plan
- Crisis re-evaluation: During a crisis, the effects of points that have been or have not been implemented based on the action plan are evaluated as needed, and necessary revisions are made to the action plan.
- Ex-post re-evaluation: Evaluate the effects of crisis countermeasures after the end of the crisis to prevent recurrence of crisis situations and improve crisis countermeasures
History in Japan
GermanyWorld War IThe term Risikopolitik, which was used when a huge amount of money was paid due to the defeat in Japan, eventually became Risk management in English-speaking countries in 1929.World DepressionIt was sometimes used mainly in crisis situations in the insurance industry.
In the 1950s, Japan was an economic conceptRisk management(Risk management)The United States of AmericaLater, in the 1970s, it was widely translated as "crisis management" in Japanese and used as a term for disaster prevention and crime prevention other than economic crisis.
Since the 1980s, crisis management in Japan has taken root as political and military terms such as interstate security, similar to Risk management in English-speaking countries... Moreover, in Japan, especially in large companies, from this time onward, crisis management has been gradually required due to the necessity of coping with extraordinary crisis situations within companies. Contingency plan as a part of it has come to be made from normal times,2000 issueThen, even small and medium-sized enterprises were required to perform crisis management.
Crisis management and risk management
In Japanese, Crisis management and Risk management are often treated as "crisis management". Certainly, the concepts of the two overlap, but there are the following differences.
- Crisis management
- The concept is centered on how to deal with crisis situations.
- Risk management
- Central to the concept is a risk analysis method for preventing the occurrence of crisis situations..
- Kimura Pan"International Crisis" (World Thought Company, 2002)
- Author "Modern Military Terminology" (Ariadne Project, 2006)
- Allison, GT 1971. Essence of decision.Explaining the Cuban missile crisis.Boston: Little, Brown.
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- Buchan, A. 1966. Crisis management. The new diplomacy. Paris: The Atlantic Institute.
- Frei, D., and C. Catrina. 1983. Risks of unintentional nuclear war. London: Croom Helm.
- Gilbert, AN and PG Lauren. 1980. Crisis management. An assessment and critique. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 24:641-64.
- Himes, JS 1980. Conflict and conflict management. Athens, Ga.: Univ. of Georgia Press.
- Kahhn, H. 1965. On escalation. Metaphors and scenarios. New York: Praeger.
- Lebow, RN 1981. Between peace and war.The nature of international crisis. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press.
- Lebow, RN 1987. Nuclear crisis management. A dangerous illusion. Ithaca, NY: Cornell Univ. Press.
- Osgood, CE 1962. An alternative to war and surrender. Chicago: Univ. of Illinois Press.
- Roderick, H. 1983. Summary and conclusions: How to improve crisis management. In Avoiding inadvertent war: Crisis management, ed. H. Roderick and U. Magnusson, pp. 165-76. Austin, Tex .: Univ. Of Texas, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs.
- Risk management
- General crisis manager
- Crisis manager
- Faculty of Crisis Management
- Incident Command System
- Civil defense