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🌏 | US Employment Statistics, November 11 Increase, Unemployment Rate Improves to 21%


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U.S. employment statistics show lower-than-expected unemployment rate improves to 11% with 21 increase in November

 
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"Unemployment is approaching relatively quickly towards the Federal Reserve's estimate of unemployment," said Brian Bethoon, a professor at Boston College.
 

[Washington, XNUMXrd Reuters] -The US Department of Labor's November employment statistics released earlier show the number of non-farm payrolls ... → Continue reading

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Wikipedia related words

If there is no explanation, there is no corresponding item on Wikipedia.

unemployment

unemployment(Shitsugyou,British: unemployment) IsOccupationLosing (work), andThe labor OfwillAlso能力It refers to a state in which you cannot get a job even though there are some. In particular, it refers to the state without workUnemployed(Mushouku) refers to the state of the person who is looking for a job for employment, and refers to the person in such a stateUnemployedSay (Shitsugyosha).

Labor force populationThe ratio of the number of unemployed toUnemployment rateSay.Full employment(Full employment) refers to the state of maximizing the use of labor, technology, land, capital and other factors of production to produce maximum sustainable production capacity.[3], It does not mean that there is no unemployed person, but that it includes the existence of a certain amount of frictional unemployment.[4].

15-24 years oldLabor force populationUnemployed in(English editionGood,JapanExcept for someNordic OfWelfare stateEven the youth unemployment rate does not drop from 20%OECDHas become a big issue in member countries[5][6].

Classification of unemployment

For unemploymentVoluntary unemployment,Frictional unemployment,Involuntary unemploymentThere are three modes[7].. This classification isJohn Maynard KeynesWas made by[8][9].

Voluntary unemployment
It exists regardless of whether the economy is good or bad (Natural unemployment rate[7].. Choosing unemployment on your own initiative, or unemploying on your own initiative in search of better working conditions.
Frictional unemployment
Exists regardless of whether the economy is good or bad (natural unemployment rate)[7].. See below.
Involuntary unemployment
Unemployment (Complete unemployment rate)[7].. currentwageYou want to get a job, but you are unemployed in a way you don't want.

Unemployed = Voluntary unemployed + frictional unemployed + involuntary unemployed[10].

Potential growth rateBut,Actual economic growth rateIt is said that "involuntary unemployment" will disappear when it becomes equal to[11].

Classification of unemployment factors

By unemployment factor,Lack of demand unemployment,Frictional unemployment,Structural unemploymentCan be classified into three types[12][13].

Lack of demand unemployment
Labor due to economic fluctuations (circulation)need(employmentUnemployment caused by a decrease in the number of recipients), also called cyclical unemployment.Real business cycle theoryIs an example.
Frictional unemployment
Career changeOr newFinding employmentWhen you doCompanyIt takes time for both job seekers to find each other because the information of each other is incomplete.WorkerUnemployment caused by the fact that it takes time to move between regions.
Structural unemployment
Labor marketDespite the balance between supply and demand inHuman resourcesJob huntingUnemployment caused by a mismatch in the characteristics (vocational ability, age, etc.) of a person.

Involuntary unemployment

Neoclassical economics,MonetaristIn the view ofMarket economyFunctioning will match the supply and demand of workers, and all job seekers will be able to get jobs.[14]. However,Keynesian economicsPointed out that the market mechanism does not work well in the short term, and that involuntary unemployment will occur. Involuntary unemployment was discovered by Keynes, and there is disagreement between Keynes' economic position and Neoclassical position as to whether to recognize the existence of involuntary unemployment.

Labor marketThen,HouseholdSupply labor and companies demand labor[15]. Real employment and wages are determined when labor supply and demand match[15]. In the labor market, when wages are high, companies reduce employment and workers increase supply[16].Neoclassical economicsSupposes that there is no involuntary unemployment because wages are determined to match the supply and demand of labor.[16].. Decline in nominal wages occurs when the supply of labor exceeds demand[16].

this isNeoclassicalHowever, it is possible to eliminate all unsold items by freely expanding and contracting prices.Say's LawAssuming[17]The reason is that unemployed people can find jobs by offering lower wages than the currently employed workers. The only reason why unemployment is not resolved by the fall in wage prices is because of the workers' choice not to work below that wage.

In contrast, John Maynard KeynesMacroeconomicsIt is,Effective demandLack of money was considered the reason for unemployment[18].Keynesian economicsSays, "Since wages are rigid, supply and demand will not match."[19]. In Keynesian economics, in the labor marketDownward wage rigidityThere is unemployment[20]. Also, prices are rigid in the goods and services market, and prices are not adjusted instantly.[20]. Prices and wages are adjusted only slowly in the short term[20]. Keynesian economics wage/price rigidity is a short-term assumption, and wages/price will be adjusted over the years.[21]. However, in the downward rigidity of the interest rate, the Keynesian recession will continue for the medium term (about 10 years) instead of the short term.[21].

Keynes presents the principle of effective demand opposite to Say's law, saying that the demand for products of society as a whole determines the amount of employment.[22]Acknowledge the possibility of equilibrium with underemployment. He said that the involuntary unemployment caused by the lack of effective demand would have to be resolved by increasing total demand.

Various factors such as the relative wage hypothesis, the efficiency wage hypothesis, and the insider/outsider hypothesis are considered as factors that explain the downward rigidity of nominal wages (for details,Labor economicsSee).

Natural unemployment rate and output gap

The ratio of the number of people who are unemployed due to structural or frictional reasons to the working populationNatural unemployment rate(Inflation Unaccelerated unemployment rate, NAIRU for short)[23].. Natural unemployment (one of its interpretations) is the unemployment rate when the economy is in equilibrium.

The government can adjust the unemployment rate through public policy, but if the unemployment rate is below the natural unemployment rate, inflation will occur. Therefore, the only unemployment that can be reduced by policy without causing inflation is the cyclical unemployment part.

In addition,George AkarovPoint out that the level of natural unemployment depends on inflation.[24][25][26].. According to these studies, the level of the natural unemployment rate rises as the inflation rate decreases from a certain threshold. Thus, in an economy with very low or deflationary inflation, if a policy is adopted to reduce the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate will temporarily fall below the natural unemployment rate, accelerating inflation. As the level rises, the level of the natural unemployment rate declines, so if the unemployment rate becomes higher than the natural unemployment rate, inflation will stop accelerating. This also shows the risk of estimating the scale of cyclical unemployment by just looking at the level of the unemployment rate and judging the size of the output gap, without taking into consideration the inflation rate and other factors.

The unemployment rate is the total output (realGDP) And the potential output as a percentage (Output gap,GDP gap) Is known to be involved.

  • Output gap = 100 × (total output-potential output)/potential output (%)

If the output gap is negative, the unemployment rate is higher than the natural unemployment rate because the resources are not fully utilized. On the contrary, if positive, the unemployment rate will be lower than the natural unemployment rate. In addition, if the output gap is positiveInflation gapAnd the negative caseRecession gapThat.

Employment contracts are the reason why the output gap does not reach zero in the short term. Even if the economy deteriorates, companies will not reduce employee salaries in the short term due to contracts. Therefore, the salary will be higher than the level at which full employment is achieved, and the number of unemployed will increase, resulting in an output gap.

From historical data, it is estimated that the output gap and the unemployment rate have the following relationship (Okun's Law):

  • Unemployment rate = Natural unemployment rate-0.5 Output gap (%)

Thus, the economy depends on real GDP, while the unemployment rate depends on the output gap. Therefore, even if the economy (real GDP) rises, if the rate of increase is slower than that of the potential output, "recovering an economy without employment" (Jobless recovery) Happens.

Finally, let's see what happens if we keep trying to keep the unemployment rate below the natural unemployment rate. Inflation of 2%, for example, lowers the unemployment rate below the natural unemployment rate. But after a while, the public will act with a 2% inflation rate in mind. Therefore, the unemployment rate rises again. To get the unemployment rate down again, we need to get higher inflation. However, this high inflation rate will also be factored into the forecast, and the unemployment rate will rise again. Thus, in order to keep the unemployment rate below the natural unemployment rate, inflation must continue to be accelerated.

If the nominal wage is downwardly rigid, it is necessary to increase prices to increase labor demand, but once full employment is achieved due to the increase in labor demand, prices will rise even if demand increases beyond that. Will just do[27].

Other types of unemployment

The following unemployment can be considered.

  • Seasonal unemployment-Unemployment caused by seasonal factors[28].
  • Potential Unemployment-Unemployed who stop looking for a job because they want to get a job but do not have a suitable job[29][30].
  • Temporary unemployment-Unemployed during the off-season of farmers.
  • Industrial Reserve-Needed as a wage restraint for capitalistsRelative overpopulation.
  • Technical unemployment-Unemployment caused by mechanization/automation that does not require special ability[31].

History of unemployment

中 世Christendom (=CatholicIn the world of), poverty is said to be "to meet the heart of God," and reaching out to such a person isGood deedMet.Reformation(=ProtestantismIs a completely different view, and "laziness and greed are unforgivable sins,"BeggingDismissed as "cause of laziness",The labor"Sacredobligation". The epidemic of protestantism has transformed the line of sight to the poor, spreading the view that it "represents being abandoned by God" and shutting out the city.Poor people Thewilderness,森林Do you live inVagrantBecomeRiotCame to wake up.

United KingdomThen.1531 According to the royal decree, poor people are classified into "people who cannot work due to illness" and "people who cannot work because of idleness".BeggingWith permission, the latterWhipping OfPunishmentWas decided to be added.1536 Is codified inPoor lawWhile providing food and food to the incapacitated poor,Healthy personToForced laborWas imposed.Industrial revolutionAccelerates18st centuryUntil then, the "laziness" of a healthy person was treated as a sin in relation to God,PoorhouseThe reality of刑 務 所It was that.18st centurySince then, poverty-stricken activities that have departed from Christian values ​​have spread.Gilbert methodAnd the establishment ofSpeenhamland systemWas established in the United Kingdom, and the values ​​for poverty and unemployment have finally changed (Poor lawreference).

Industrial revolutionSince then, the proportion of wage laborers has increased, and unemployment is serious.社会 問題It was decided to be treated as.19st centuryIn England金融Capital investmentFrom the circulation of, almost every 10 yearspanicThere was a cycle in which the unemployment rate rose to nearly 10% each time.

20st centuryUpon entering, this circulation gradually collapses,1929 Occurred inWorld DepressionSince then, unemployment has increased sharply in each country.The United States of AmericaIn (US), the temporary unemployment rate reached 25% and was openly shouted. In addition, unemployment at this timeNew Deal PolicyIt temporarily decreased due to, but increased again when the policy receded,Second World WarBy largeMunitionsIt was not resolved until it occurred.

After the warBretton Woods systemUnderWestern countriesAchieved miraculous high growth. By stateEconomic policyWith significant intervention inFull employmentWas almost achieved.1970 eraOnce you enter, the increase in nominal wageOil shockThe outbreak hurt supply structures and increased unemployment under inflation (Stagflation).

1980 eraWhen I enter, I try to escape from the recessionNeoliberalismEconomic policy (Reganomics,Thatcherism,Rogernomics, Etc. were introduced, and the economic growth rate increased in countries where the labor market was liquidized, but it was aimed at controlling the inflation rate at the same time.Financial PolicyWas adopted and the unemployment rate rose significantly.

1990 eraThe United States and the United Kingdom escaped from structural high unemployment,Continental EuropeCountries have settled on high unemployment. Also, in Japan, where the unemployment rate was lower than in Europe and the United States,Bubble economyAfter the collapseLong recessionUnemployment becomes apparent due to社会 問題It became.

2009 Before and afterWorld financial crisisPeaked and high unemployment rates were recorded around the world. Also,2020 ToNew coronavirusIn each country due to the spread ofCurfewAnd urbanLockdownAs a result of the significant decline in economic activity, the unemployment rate has also risen significantly. US GDP hits -32.9% in second quarter[32].. As a result, the number of new unemployed people also increased.

Economy and unemployment

Unemployment rate definition

It is a measure of unemploymentUnemployment rateIs defined as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the labor force. Generally speaking, the unemployment rate isUnemployment ratePoint to[33].. An unemployed person is a person who has the will and ability to work but is unable to get a job, so a person who gives up looking for a job (spontaneous unemployed person) is not included in the unemployed person.

If you give up looking for a jobUnwillingness to work It is called (discouraged worker). By the way,Labor force surveyThen, it is said that they have the will to work, that they are trying to find a job such as going to Hello Work and preparing to start a business. The inability to get a job does not include the case where the employee receives salary from the workplace even if he/she does not have a job, and in such a case, he/she is treated as a leave of absence.

To unemployment rate including part-timers and people who gave up looking for jobs,U6 unemployment rateThere is a statistic[34].

For definitions of unemployment and unemployment in the Labor Force Survey, seeLabor force surveySee item.

Relationship with the economy

The unemployment rate is an important indicator for understanding the economic trends of the entire country[33].. Rising unemployment rate due to recession means increasing economic waste of underutilized workforce[35].

Unemployment rates fluctuate in relation to various economic activitiesLabor marketSignal that indicates the degree of tightening of supply and demand in[36].

Controlling unemployment is an important goal of economic policy[37]. Also, reducing unemployment is an important issue in labor economics.[38].

The unemployment rate is

  1. "Results" of various economic activities
  2. "Factors" that affect economic fluctuations triggered by the unemployment rate

There are two aspects[37].

Unemployment rateBusinessIt is said that there is a correlation with, but the movements are not always the same. The unemployment rate is driven by factors related to the economic structure as well as business cycle factors.[39]. traditionalJapanese managementUnder theemploymentIs one of the social missions of a company,Personnel reduction,In particularDismissalThis is because they try to avoid the situation as much as possible and try to determine the situation to the last minute. On the other hand, with regard to recruitment, the larger companies are, the more careful and careful the balance of planning and personnel composition is, and the tendency to avoid unnecessary and urgent recruitment.Non-regular employmentHiring is flexible, and that point must be taken into consideration when looking at employment-related indicators).

On the worker side as well, as the recession lasts longer, the number of people who lose their willingness to work will increase (the number of job offers will decrease due to the recession, and more people will give up saying that they will not be able to find a job anyway). It becomes a factor to push down, and it seems that the economy has recovered on the surface. On the other hand, in the economic recovery phase (sometimes the number of job offers will increase as the economy improves), some people will start looking for new jobs, so the number of “unemployed people” wishing to work will increase, increasing the unemployment rate. become.

From the above, the unemployment rateLagging indexHas become[37], It is necessary to look at other economic indicators as well as the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate usually fluctuates by one to one and a half years compared to economic trends.It is also a representative of the leading index of the economy.Stock priceAnd the unemployment rate, which is one of the lagging indexes, may temporarily show the opposite movement.

In China, a 1% drop in economic growth will yield 100 million unemployed people[40].

  • Non-regular employment
previousRegular employmentEasier to hire and fire thanPart-time job,Worker dispatch such asNon-regular employmentIn the current situation where labor patterns are becoming more fragmented and complicated, including the increase in the number of workers, it is necessary to exercise caution in using the unemployment rate.

Unemployment rate in foreign countries

The unemployment rate and the general condition of each country are shown. However, the calculation standard is different from Japan in many countries.

  • The United States of America -America suffered from high unemployment in the 1970s, butIT revolutionAs a result, the unemployment rate has improved. The unemployment rate, which is one of the Fed's benchmarks for interest rate judgments, has attracted the most attention in the world.
  • Germany -The unemployment rate in former West Germany was not high until the 1980s, but in 1989Berlin Wall CollapseSince then, the unemployment rate has remained high due to the high unemployment of the former East Germany, but the export economy has developed due to the benefit of the weak euro of the EU membership, and it is said that one of the euro-introducing countries will win. It was a very low unemployment rate.Germany # EconomySee also
  • France -Suffering from high unemployment, labor policy is affecting political affairs. Also, assuming that you are taking jobsImmigrationThere is also a strong wind hit.France # high unemployment rate,2005 Suburban Paris Riot CaseSee also
  • Singapore 2.25% (2019)[1]
  • Republic of China(Taiwan) 3.73% (2019)[1]
  • Euro area(EU) 6.7% (2019, ages 15 to 75)[44]
  • (I.e. -The unemployment rate is set at 2004% as of 90 because almost all people except government employees are unemployed due to economic collapse and financial failure. After that, the unemployment rate will be 2011% as of 23.[1].

Countries with longer unemployment benefit periods tend to have higher unemployment rates, while shorter periods of benefit tend to lower unemployment rates.[45][46][47]

For the unemployment insurance benefit period of each countryUnemployment benefitchecking ...


High youth unemployment issues in foreign countries

Until 2007, the research team analyzed that there was no intergenerational disparity in relative poverty levels in Europe.However, since 2007, the income of the elderly aged 65 and over in Europe has increased by 10%, while the income of the young aged 15-24 has declined rather sharply over the same period.The research team points out "" in the background. According to the EU Statistics Bureau, the youth unemployment rate in the EU region was 2007% in 15.6, but after soaring to 2014% in 23.8, the long-term high youth unemployment rate continues at 2016% in 20.9. ..In 2014, when the youth unemployment problem reached its limit in Europe, Spain was 53.2%, Greece was 52.4% and Italy was 42.7%, and about half of them, 15 to 25 years old, were unemployed.Researchers at the International Monetary Fund said, "The long-term curse of unemployment makes it even harder for young people to find jobs." It is the generation with the highest proportions, and the youth will be the most vulnerable and hit when the financial crisis recurs. " In 2017, the global youth unemployment rate deteriorated for the second consecutive year to 13.1%.The number of unemployed people in the world between the ages of 15 and 24 is projected to increase to 2017 million in 7090 and 2018 million in 7110.[48][49]. The number of Koreans who find employment in Japan, which has a shortage of manpower, is increasing every year, which is in contrast to South Korea, where youths have a high unemployment rate and it is difficult for young people to find employment. According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's 2017 ``Foreign Employment Status'', which was about 2008 in 2, the number of Koreans who worked in Japan was 2017 as of October 10, the first 5 Over 5900 people. The maximum increase since 5 has increased by about 2016 in the past year and about 1 times in the nine years from 8000. The youth unemployment rate in South Korea in 2008 was 9%, the highest since 2.7, and the number of Koreans who are paying attention to Japan as a employment place has increased, and the enthusiasm for learning Japanese has recovered.[50].

Unemployment and unemployment rate in Japan

Below isMinistry of Internal Affairs and CommunicationsHas been published byLabor force surveyIs the total number of unemployed people and the unemployment rate, which is the sum of "4 years old to 1 years old" and "15 years old or older", which is adjusted to the age as of April 64, every year.

Changes in the number of unemployed people and the unemployment rate
(Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Statistics Bureau)
YearsUnemployed (XNUMX)Unemployment rate (%)
Male and female totalFemaleMaleMale and female totalFemaleMale
199013457772.12.22.0
199113659782.12.22.0
199214260822.22.22.1
199316671952.52.62.4
1994192801122.93.02.8
1995210871233.23.23.1
1996225911343.43.33.4
1997230951353.43.43.4
19982791111684.14.04.2
19993171231944.74.54.8
20003201231964.74.54.9
20013401312095.04.75.2
20023591402195.45.15.5
20033501352155.34.95.5
20043131211924.74.44.9
20052941161784.44.24.6
20062751071684.13.94.3
20072571041543.93.73.9
20082651071594.03.84.1
20093361332035.14.85.3
20103341282075.14.65.4
20113021151874.64.24.9
20122851121744.34.04.6
20132651031634.03.74.3
2014236961423.63.43.7
2015222891353.43.13.6
2016208821263.12.83.3
2017190781122.82.73.0
201816667992.42.22.6
201916266962.42.22.5
2020191761152.82.53.0

[52][53]

1990 eraBehind the increase in demand for non-regular employment since then is JapanBubble economy collapseThis is because companies faced the "three excesses" of "employment, debt, equipment" before the collapse of the bubble economy. Measures to deal with the three excesses Now, companies have begun restructuring, focusing on controlling labor costs, and making heavy use of non-regular employees. Bonuses that make it easier to link wage structure to corporate performance for each year rather than basic salary (ボ ー ナ スEtc.), the emphasis is on salary.2003 According to Asahi Noguchi, the voluntary unemployment / sound unemployment rate due to the transformation of the industrial structure is 2-3%.[54]. Pacific War(Second World War) Japan's unemployment rate was low at 1-2% for a long time, butIT bubbleAfter the collapse2001 At that point, the unemployment rate is just under 5%, which is higher than before.[55].2002 At that time, Japan recorded a record high unemployment rate of 5.5% after the war.[56],AmericanLehman shockLater in July 2009, the unemployment rate was 7%, the highest post-war record.[57].

As of 2000, the average number of unemployed was 320 million, more than double that of 1990.[58].

In Japan in 2010, the ratio of voluntary unemployed and frictionless unemployed is about 3.5%[10].

As of 2020, if the unemployment rate is 2%, the total number of unemployed people in Japan is approximately 137 million, but if it is 5%, it will be approximately 343 million.[52][59].. Japan's unemployment rate is 2020% and the number of unemployed people is about 2.8 million as of 191, and it is necessary to create about 1 new jobs to improve the unemployment rate by 69 point.[52][60].

The unemployment rate varies widely by age and region.[61].. By age group, the unemployment rate among young people (15-24 years old) is 4.6% on average, well above the overall average of 2.8% (as of 2020).[52].. There was also a survey by an international organization that Japan's generational unemployment rate was close to 2009% until the early teens in their teens in 10, when the economy deteriorated due to the Lehman shock.[62]..By region, there is a large difference between regions, from 2.5% in Kita-Kantou / Koshin and Hokuriku to 3.3% in Hokkaido / South Kanto (as of October-December 2020).[63].

In 2016, the average number of regular employees/employees was 3364 million, an increase of 51 from the previous year. In the backgroundAbenomicsWith the economy rising, new jobs were first created as non-regular, causing companies to become less manpowered than initially planned for employment because of higher demand for workers and a shift to a job-seeker-friendly seller market. As a result, the number of non-regular employees and those who were eligible began to be switched to regular employment in 2015, increasing for the second consecutive year.

In 2017, "regurgitation from non-regular to regular" began, and in 2017, the "effective job openings-to-applicants ratio for regular jobs" exceeded 1, and the number of job offers for regular jobs increased.AbenomicsFrom subsequent growth and employment growth, the unemployment rate was projected to reach 2018% in 0.9 and close to 2019% in 0, but the actual unemployment rate did not.However, the unemployment rate is declining, and companies are deflationary due to wage increases, treatment competition, and deflation, in addition to the continued increase in regular hiring of non-regular workers and new hires currently hired due to unprecedented labor shortages. It was an optimized model when prices and sales decreased.Black companiesIt was expected that there would be a series of route changes and bankruptcies due to the gathering of workers. [64][65][66].

after that,Economic impact of epidemic of new coronavirus infectionBy2020 The unemployment rate was about 0.4%, 2.8 points higher than the previous year.[52].. However,Employment adjustment subsidyIt has been pointed out that the unemployment rate will more than double if the leave of absence that keeps employment is included.[67].

In the five years from 2012 to 2017, South Korea's youth unemployment rate rose 5 points to 2.3%, while the United States fell 9.8 points to 5.8% and Japan fell 7.2 points to 2.6%. Japan's youth unemployment rate has dropped to half that of the OECD[68].

影響

The problem of high unemployment is not limited to the decline in national income,

  1. Cause inequality in income distribution
  2. Bring poverty
  3. It hinders people's well-being
  4. Increase the crime rate and suicide rate

Giving people such pain[69].

There is a correlation between the unemployment rate and the number of crime cases, and it is reported in the 2006 White Paper on Crime that the number of crime cases decreases when the unemployment rate decreases.

Life support for the unemployed

Japan

  • By Hello Work
    • Training and living support benefits-Payment of living expenses. However, you must take training
    • Long-term support for unemployed-entrusted to a private business to support reemployment. Lending a living fund
    • Difficulty finding employment-Private companies provide housing to support re-employment. Payment of living and job hunting costs
    • Employment Security Financing-Housing rent, rent subsidy (employment insurance Lending for living and job hunting costs (same)
  • By welfare office
    • Emergency housing allowance special provision-Housing allowance based on welfare
  • Social welfare councilDue to
    • Comprehensive support fund-Lending living support costs, housing expenses, etc.
    • Extraordinary Special Bond Lending-Lending living expenses. Until public benefit system is decided

Unemployment debate

EconomistShunsuke Tachibana"Unemployment is one of the greatest unhappiness that occurs in humans, because losing a job means zero income to live."[70].. EconomistJoseph E. StiglitzPoint out that unemployment is one of the worst situations that accompanies existing human values, and eliminating it will promote human well-being.[71].

EconomistHeizo Takenaka"The most serious economic problem is obviously the problem of unemployment. Unemployment directly affects people's lives. Unemployment is a state in which valuable resources are idle and not being used effectively. The situation is not so inefficient in terms of economic efficiency.The problem of unemployment is the biggest policy issue.[72]"Of course it depends on the times, but the biggest goal of economics and economic policy is to prevent unemployment.[73]"I point out.

EconomistHideomi Tanaka"When a large number of unemployed people drift, there are various social costs.Welfareincrease of,minimum wage, Lowering the academic ability of children due to low parents' income and increasing the crime rate. In that way, the burden of society on the back and the direct employment of taxAnnual expenditureThere is no substitute for that."[74].. Tanaka has pointed out that "unemployment problems will be exacerbated if only efficiency is pursued in an economic stagnation".[75].

EconomistYoichi Takahashi"It is known that if the unemployment rate goes down, the suicide rate and the crime rate go down. In addition, the welfare rate goes down.Black companiesCan also be eliminated. In any case, the unemployment rate is one of the most important economic indicators."[76].

EconomistMotoshige Ito"It's not just the number of unemployment that matters, but how long the person who is actually unemployed remains unemployed. It is necessary to take a closer look at the situation of the unemployed." Has pointed out[77].

EconomistFumio OtakeIs "recessionThen there will be unemployment and some people will not be able to get a job regardless of their efforts."[78].

statistics

Economist Steven Randsburg, on the US unemployment statistics, said, "Unemployment statistics include not only the number of unemployed people, but also the average unemployment period. Calculated by averaging the answers over a period of time, resulting in an oversize, long-term unemployed are more likely to be unemployed on the survey day, and short-term unemployed are much more likely to be unemployed on the survey day. Small, so the sample collected on a particular day/week contains a relatively large number of long-term unemployed people."[79].

Japanese statistics

Workers cannot quickly change jobs because it is difficult to find a workplace that suits their abilities and it takes time to improve their skills.[80].. This is called "employment mismatch"[80].

The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's 2002 version of the Labor Economic White Paper estimates that 2001% of the total unemployment rate of 5% in 3.9 was structural mismatch unemployment, and 1.1% was unemployment due to lack of demand.[81].Daiichi Kangin Research InstituteAccording to the estimate, the number of unemployed people caused by the mismatch of labor supply and demand in 2000 accounts for about 7% of the total unemployed people. To improve employment, the economic recovery will increase the labor demand. At the same time, it is indispensable to eliminate the labor supply-demand mismatch.[82].

EconomistTakao KomineSays that mismatches are caused by differences in 1) occupation, 2) age, 3) region, 4) industry, etc.[83].

Economist Junro Asada points out that "the index of "total unemployment" in Japan has a bias that the "unemployment rate" is extremely low compared to the indicators in the West."[84].. EconomistYasuyuki Iida"The unemployment statistics in Japan are not recorded as unemployed when job hunting is stopped. This can cause the unemployment rate to temporarily drop even in a recession," he said.[85].. EconomistYasushi Harada"Currently (2013) Japan's unemployment rate is about 4%, of which 1% is forced to control the unemployment rate through an employment adjustment subsidy," he said.[86].

EconomistShunsuke TachibanaAccording to their research, the potential unemployment rate in Japan will reach 10% (as of 2001).[55].

EconomistNorihisa Iwata"In the case of the Japanese economy, an unemployment rate of about 2.5% is a guideline for full employment, judging from the Phillips curve-Okan law."[87].. As of 2004, Hideomi Tanaka said, "In Japan, the unemployment rate at which inflation does not accelerate (NAIRU, non-inflation accelerated unemployment rate) can be estimated to be about 2.3-2.4%. When the unemployment rate is higher than NAIRU, this unemployment rate is high. Inflation will not accelerate even if the deflation is lowered, and the unemployment rate will drop dramatically if deflation disappears."[88].. As of 2009, Tanaka pointed out that "the natural unemployment rate in Japan is said to be in the low 3% range or high 2% range".[89].. As of 2015, Yasushi Harada points out that "the unemployment rate for full employment in Japan is in the 2% range" as of XNUMX.[90].. Harada pointed out in 2013, "In the case of Japan, when the unemployment rate approaches 2%, there will be rapid inflation. The inflation rate immediately before that is about 2%."[91].. Yoichi Takahashi points out that "the unemployment rate for full employment in Japan will be around 2015-3% in 3.5".[92].

UnemploymentIs a phenomenon peculiar to Japan and is pointed out as a factor that keeps the unemployment rate statistically low in Japan.[93].

Yasuyuki Iida said, "In Japan, the unemployment rateEffective job openings-to-applicants ratioIs more useful as a statistic that shows the state of the labor market. In Japan, there is a lag between the ratio of job offers to applicants and the unemployment rate."[94].

(I.e.

1943'sBeveridge Report], full employment is appropriate for the governmentMacroeconomic policyIs reported to be realized by[95].

Employment protection regulations

“Fluidization of employment” indicates the ease of leaving or changing jobs and means the efficient use of human resources[96].

EconomicsThere are statistical surveys on dismissal regulations and unemployment rates, and many of them result in lower unemployment rates when employees can be freely dismissed.[97].. Nobuo Ikeda points out that employment is easier when it is easier to dismiss. This is evidenced by the fact that the unemployment rate in the US, which is free to dismiss, is lower than the unemployment rate in Europe, which is well protected.[98].. Ikeda said,Working poorWill be changed to "Poor" without work. If a non-regular employee becomes unemployed, the unemployment rate goes up.''[99].

Yasuyuki Iida said, “If you do not change the favorable treatment/dismissal regulations for full-time employees, you will be cut off from the bottom. Labor unions still refuse.[100]"Non-regular employment has increased in order to reduce personnel costs without reducing the apparent treatment of regular employees[101]"I point out. Iida also pointed out that "making employment liquidation policy in a recession would make it easier to just cut off."[102].

Hideomi Tanaka said, "In Japan, mobilization of employment is used to facilitate restructuring of people with weak positions because of the convenience of the company, rather than promoting mobility of employment of people with high skills and expertise. Has been done"[103].. Tanaka said, "Even if the industrial structure can be changed to one with high productivity, if demand remains insufficient, it will only exacerbate unemployment.[104]“When the demand for labor in the economy as a whole is declining, encouraging mobilization of employment is equivalent to competing for a shrinking pie. Drop people to the bottom of unemployment, then change yourself Is a social guilt that should be questioned[105]"I point out. In addition, Tanaka pointed out, "If the temporary ban on dispatched labor is prohibited in Japan, it may take away the work of the workers who were dispatched. It is better to leave the dispatching mechanism and improve the treatment." Are[106].

Norihisa Iwata pointed out that "If the deregulation of worker dispatching had not progressed, unemployment would have increased because the road to work was temporarily shut down. If the number of unemployed increased, the gap would widen." doing[107].

Fumio Otake points out, "Even if we control layoffs to prevent unemployment, the number of new hires will decrease. The potential cost of high youth unemployment is high."[108].

Takuro Morinaga"It is a basic principle of American companies to hire as many people as they need, when they need it, because the market for mid-career hires in the United States makes it easier to dismiss middle-aged and older people," he said.[109].

Japanese case study

In the Japanese labor market, there are precedents that support employment practices that favor regular employees over non-regular employees (UnderstandingCase law)[110]. In this case, even if the company faces the risk of bankruptcy and needs to understand and hire, it is not possible to dismiss a full-time employee unless the requirements such as 1) necessity of dismissal and 2) effort to avoid dismissal are met.[111][112]. Efforts to avoid dismissal include restraining new hires and suspending renewal of employment contracts for non-regular employees before dismissing full-time employees.[113]. That is, before the court dismisses a full-time employee,Dispatch cut) Seeking[113].

Hideomi Tanaka said, "In Japan, it is difficult to restructure even if the economy goes down. We employ staffing and seconded to the company. So we adjust by restructuring of non-regular employees. For the past 20 years or so. The number of young people in their late twenties and late thirties has increased considerably, and if a large-scale restructuring occurs for the current (20) non-regular employees that include these people directly, It threatens our lives, which in turn leads to tighter younger generations. Compared to the United States and the United Kingdom, the value of living for younger Japanese people is declining."[114].

Regarding the argument that "if we reduce the wages of regular employees and make them easier to dismiss, the barrier between regular employees and temporary employees will decrease and the opportunities for temporary employees to be hired will increase." If it only ends in a decline, it could worsen the economy further."[115]. Tanaka pointed out, "If the regulations on the dismissal law are relaxed during a recession when business performance deteriorates, it will be easier for restructuring and the unemployment rate will increase."[116].

Yasuyuki Iida points out that "there are many laws in Japan that do not need to be protected. The rules for dismissal are practically only for large companies, not for small and medium-sized enterprises."[117].

About strengthening the safety net

Yasushi Harada,Daiwa Institute of Research"The government is required not to press companies to raise wages and maintain employment during the recession, but to do the safety net itself," he said.[118].

Norihisa Iwata said, "As a safety net in case of unemployment,employment insurance Is effective in expanding membership and public rent subsidies."[119].

In Germany, there is a rent subsidy system, etc., and you will not suddenly become homeless due to unemployment[120]. According to economists, “If you are unemployed, the situation is very different in the United States and Germany. It is difficult for unemployed people to make a living in the United States, but in Germany, unemployed people receive assistance from the government, Life can be maintained indefinitely.opportunity costIs less in Germany than in the US"[121].

Unemployment insurance

Fumio Otake said, “The typical public policy to prepare for unemployment risk is the unemployment insurance system. With complete unemployment insurance, people will not have to reduce their consumption levels even if they lose their jobs. The biggest problem with unemployment insurance Is that people who are unwilling to get a job falsely get unemployment insurance and do not seek employment seriously.In many countries, in order to eliminate unemployed unemployed workers, unemployment benefits Are lowering the level of unemployment benefits and shortening the period of unemployment benefits."[122].

Otake is unemployed for unemployed people to ease the conditions for unemployment benefits and extend the benefit period.Moral HazardPoint out that it is easy to produce[123].

Mizuho Research Institute"In the European example,employment insurance The more untidy, the longer the unemployment period of the unemployed is. Unemployed neglect efforts to obtain employment opportunities, causing moral hazard. If unemployment benefits are substantial, the intent to continue unemployment will work. Easy expansion of unemployment insurance must be avoided. In Europe, learning from the failure to expand unemployment insurance, we are shifting the focus of our employment policy from unemployment insurance to education, training and employment placement."[124].

Job training

Motoshige Ito said, “If unemployment occurs due to structural adjustment, it is necessary to take regional measures in response to structural adjustment, support for the acquisition of skills and placement of employment so that workers can move from a declining industry to a growing industry. Will be"[125].

Fumio Otake said, “Skill training is effective not in fields where unemployment is increasing, but in fields that enrich our lives. Specifically, investment/public investment that does not improve productivity but improves the living environment. It is a field of intellectual service”[126].

Norihisa Iwata pointed out that it is a great waste to call the safety net, hire unemployed people in the public sector that is not in the right place, or put taxes on education and training investments that are unlikely to be useful. ing[127].

Takuro Morinaga said, “The vocational training system does not always help re-employment.White collarIn the case of, short-term vocational training received after unemployment makes little sense. However, for low-paid workers, being able to use a word processor/PC Excel can be a professional skill.''[128].

Asahi Noguchi and Hideomi Tanaka said, "Most of the Japanese qualification system is a kind of "sign" that is not based on the intention to increase the skill of workers, and the benefits obtained by maintaining the qualification system. It exists just for the sake of[129].

Hideomi Tanaka pointed out, "Under severe unemployment, it is common for people to have skills but not work. Policies such as vocational training to improve the quality of human capital have only a secondary effect." ing[130]. Asahi Noguchi and Hideomi Tanaka said, ``Even if we were able to educate and train workers displaced from a “low productivity” industry and push them into another industry, as long as total demand did not increase, someone would I have no choice but to lose my job."[131].

Yasuyuki Iida points out that "the nation's direct provision of vocational training tends to be a rigid system. It is better to create only guidelines and leave it to the private sector."[132].

Cause-and-effect relationship with suicide

Economist Daniel Hummermesh believes that higher unemployment will lead to lower incomes in the long run and will not lead to a satisfactory life.suicidePoint out that more people will choose[133].

Takeshi Nakano"Increasing unemployment increases suicides and destabilizes society, but it not only imposes financial hardship but also destroys human dignity. If financial hardship alone, the government will provide unemployment benefits. You can solve it by simply doing.孤独Feelings cannot be solved with money."[134].

Yasuyuki Sawada, Michiko Ueda and Tetsuya Matsubayashi reveal the relationship between economy and suicide after showing many empirical studies.[135]. In Japan, the correlation between unemployment rate and suicide isOECDCompared to other countries, the unemployment rate is increasing the suicide rate among male working age groups (35-64 years old).[135].. Also, looking at the suicide rate by occupation for men in their 40s and 50s, it is said that it is particularly high among the unemployed and unemployed.[135].. Analysis of international and prefectural data also shows that unemployment and personal bankruptcy rates have led to higher suicide rates among men (especially 40-59 years old).[135].

Kenji Kawano, General Manager, Center for Suicide Prevention, said, "If you look at all of Japan, the unemployment rate and the suicide rate correlate nicely, but there are wide variations among prefectures. It shows that the protection factors such as welfare and support of the surroundings are different depending on the region.SwedenIn case of, it is not supported at the national level. Even if the unemployment rate goes up, the suicide rate goes down. In other words, it seems that there are social systems that are not driven to death even if they lose their jobs."[136].

Fumio Otake said, “Sweden has high unemployment benefits, and as a measure against unemployment, it has an active employment policy such as employment placement, vocational training, and direct employment in the public sector. It suggests that the relationship will change depending on the employment measures."[137].

Impact of low crude oil

EconomistKoichi Hamada"Changes in exogenous variables such as low oil prices have a positive impact on employment,"[138].

Japanese unemployment debate

Before the war, as seen in the slogan "Unemployed is the parasite of the country" of the country, the windfall against unemployment was tough. Fumio OtakeHigh economic growth periodIn the age of full employment, the unemployed and poor were conditions that occurred only when they did not work seriously. Perhaps the Japanese were not aware that they would fall into poverty even if they worked hard."[139].

Yasuyuki Iida said, "The major cause of the current (2010) increase in Japan's unemployment rate is the rise in real wages due to deflation. In other words, the increasing number of unemployed people in Japan is involuntary unemployed." Pointing out[140].

Nobuo Ikeda points out that “current (2009) unemployment insurance and welfare are insufficient as a safety net, and what is important is not the redistribution of income but the expansion of job opportunities.”[141].

Yamazaki Gen"The current (March 1999) recession is very good. We need to be more positive about the need for corporate bankruptcy and the resulting high unemployment rate. Coexistence with high unemployment rate We have to become a society, and some degree of macro unemployment is necessary for workers to move from wasteful places to non-useful ones."[142].. Yamazaki points out, "There is no need to do anything extra in the sense that workers will move faster to where the private sector is efficient."[143].

Heizo Takenaka said, “Japan's unemployment does not have to be so pessimistic in the medium to long term, because the population is declining. It is not a serious society. In the short term, it is necessary to eliminate the supply and demand mismatch through vocational training and education."[144].

Youth unemployment and lifetime income and savings levels

Fumio Otake points out, "Under the current situation in Japan (2005), once unemployed, it is difficult to get a job with high wages. An increase in the unemployment rate of young people is directly linked to an increase in the lifelong income disparity."[145].

UFJ Research Institute"The increase in youth unemployment in Japan, combined with the increase in freeters, has reduced the level of savings," the research department said.[146].

EconomistNaohiro Yatsushiro"No new jobs can be created without economic growth. The people who are hired may not have to grow, but the victims are the youngest. More mature than Japan The United States is growing. There is plenty of room for Japan to grow, and it is "human disaster" that does not do it."[147].

Government allocation

EconomistYouichi ItoIs "the worldCentral BankIn many cases, the mission is to maintain employment as much as to stabilize prices.”[148].. US Fed (Federal Reserve) Is legally required to stabilize prices and maintain employment.[149].

Yoichi Takahashi said, “I have to question how to approach employment in Japan. It is an economic problem that the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare is in charge of employment. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare Act No. 4 Although it is legally stipulated in Article 59 “Countermeasures for Unemployment and Others to Secure Employment Opportunities”, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, which is not in charge of macroeconomics, cannot take measures against unemployment in the true sense. It is important to lower the structural unemployment rate, but it is difficult to do so.The unemployment rate has both a structural part and a demand shortage, but MHLW has no effective means for the latter demand deficit. In the US, it is the Fed's responsibility to maximize employment, and it is the central bank's responsibility to reduce unemployment in response to demand shortages."[150].. Takahashi said, "It is clear that the unemployment rate decreases as inflation rises, but in JapanBank of JapanThe big problem is that it is handled by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, which wants to keep the unemployment rate as low as possible, has scattered employment adjustment subsidies. Without the subsidy, the current (2012) unemployment rate in Japan is 7%, which is the same as in the United States, and this is not a decent policy."[151].. Takahashi points out that "the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's policy is significant in reducing mismatches, but it is not enough to significantly increase or decrease the level of the unemployment rate."[152].

Yasushi Harada points out that the BOJ should also realize stable employment unless price stability is constrained.[153].

Asahi Noguchi and Hideomi Tanaka said, “What is said to be “structural unemployment due to a mismatch in labor demand” is actually a type of demand shortage unemployment, and if labor demand increases due to an increase in total demand, the “mismatch” will disappear. Point out"[154].

Related program

footnote

[How to use footnotes]
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  8. ^ What is voluntary unemployment?Koto bank
  9. ^ What is frictional unemployment?Koto bank
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References

HMG (UK Government)Kenzo KashinoTranslated "New welfare contract British ambition" Tezukayama University Press, 2008.

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