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🌏 | Eurozone continues to support economic support High inflation is transient = IMF


Eurozone continues to support economic support High inflation is transient = IMF

If you write the contents roughly
"There is room for fiscal policy to be restructured when the economy is expanding, but a credible medium-term strengthening plan should be announced now."

[Brussels XNUMXth Reuters] -International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the XNUMXth, Eurozone countries have a new coronavirus ... → Continue reading


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Strengthening plan

Fiscal policy

Fiscal policy(Zaiseiseisaku,British: fiscal policy) Is mainlyCountry Offinance Ofrevenue,Annual expenditureManage aggregate demand and money circulation throughEconomyA policy that affectsFinancial PolicyLine upMacroeconomic policyIt is a pillar of. Fiscal policy based on increased government spending is called expansionary fiscal policy.

Tax system,Government bondRevenue policy by社会 保障,public investmentThere is an expenditure policy consisting of such things.


Generally, the national fiscal policy is

  1. Resource allocation function- 道路,Sewer,dam,parkSuch asconstruction・ Business related to maintenance (society)Infrastructure) And外交,National defense,PolicemenBusiness such as.
  2. Income redistribution - Progressive taxation,inheritance tax,Social security(Welfare) Transfers income from the rich to the poor.
  3. Economic Stabilization-Progressive Taxation (Built-in stabilizer) And tax cuts,public investmentImplementation of.

There are three functions[1].

Government spending is the creation of private deposits, that isMoney supplyOn the contrary, if the government repays the debt, the money supply will decrease. Thus, the government's fiscal policy manipulates the money supply [2].


For fiscal policy,Automatic stabilizerAnd have discretionary fiscal policy[2].. An automatic stabilizer means that a mechanism for stabilizing the macro economy by automatically increasing or decreasing tax and social security expenditures functions in the economy (eg, progressive taxation).[2].

Discretionary fiscal policy includes fiscal spending policy (expenditure side) and tax reduction policy (revenue side).[3][4].. Fiscal policy includes not only ways to adjust spending, but also ways to change taxes such as tax cuts and tax increases.[5].

Expenditure surface

Public investment is the core of fiscal policy from the expenditure side.Economic growth can be promoted or restrained by expanding or contracting the fiscal scale centered on public works.If the economy is in recession due to lack of demand, it will be due to fiscal expansion.Insufficient aggregate demandBy eliminating the problem and activating the monetary circulation in the economy消费And can encourage investment.It's not just an economic stimulus package that expands the fiscal scale.Multiplier effectEffective fiscal spending is required in areas that promote growth, such as public investment and R & D support.Public fixed capital formationNot only can short-term demand shortages be filled, but productivity gains in the private economy as a whole can be achieved.On the other hand, austerity policy is a policy that drastically reduces spending and reduces the scale of expenditure, and it may be taken due to the financial crisis.Unemployment rateThere is an aspect that causes a rise in the economy and economic stagnation.

Revenue side

The tax system is the axis of fiscal policy from the revenue side. By reducing or increasing taxeseconomic growthCan be promoted or suppressed.

Positive and negative fiscal policy

Fiscal policy is a positive fiscal policy in which the government actively increases or decreases fiscal spending or increases or decreases the burden on households and companies so as to offset the movement of economic fluctuations, and even without an active response by the government. It can be divided into passive fiscal policy, in which the policy is automatically changed.

Active fiscal policy

Aggressive fiscal policy is through increased public investment, cash benefits and tax cuts for citizens and businesses.Effective demandBy increasingGDPExpansion andUnemployment rateAt the same time, it supports the improvement of productivity of private economic activities.In order to expand the budget and reduce taxes, it is necessary for the government to be willing to expand the budget deficit and spend far beyond tax revenue.Management currency systemSince there are no restrictions on financial resources in countries with financial resources, it is possible to flexibly expand public finances according to economic conditions in terms of the system.On the contrary, if the economy overheatsAusterity policyBy reducing public investment, curbing fiscal expansion by extending the project period, or raising taxes消费,バ ブ ルTo reduce the range of economic fluctuations.

Marinea S. EcclesyuanFed chair"Fiscal policy should be tightened only when private credit is expanding, and should be expanded only when private activity is declining."[14].

economist OfKenneth Rogoff"Aggressive in the necessary policies in the event of a global recessionMacroeconomic policyIs included. Fiscal policy should focus on tax cuts and infrastructure investment. "[15].

Negative fiscal policy

As a passive fiscal policy,Corporate tax,income taxThe presence of,(employment insurance -Unemployment insurance) AndWelfareSystem can be mentioned. Corporate tax is not levied unless the company makes a profit, so it becomes zero during the recession and tax revenue increases during the boom. Income tax levied on individual income is not levied up to a certain income level, and the tax burden is automatically reduced if income decreases during a recession. Especially the income tax rateProgressive systemIn the case of, the tax burden increases at a rate faster than the income increases during the boom period, and the effect of suppressing consumption is great.

In addition, unemployment benefits and livelihood protection systems are not directly implemented for the purpose of stabilizing economic fluctuations, but the number of unemployed people increases or income is lost due to the recession, and people are in need of living. If the number of households increases, government spending will automatically increase to supplement household income and support consumption, so it indirectly has a function of stabilizing the economy.[16].

ElementaryMacroeconomicsIn many cases, the level of government spending and the fiscal balance are analyzed as constant unless there is a policy change, but in the actual fiscal system, the amount of spending automatically increases or decreases and the fiscal balance improves or deteriorates due to economic fluctuations. .. The economic stabilization function that is built into the fiscal system in advance is called the automatic stabilization function (built-in stabilizer).

Effects and harmful effects

Fiscal policy can generate certain "government demand"[17].. For example, if the government makes public investment, at least that muchTotal demandWill increase and nominal GDP will grow[17].. On the other hand, fiscal policy distorts resource allocation and income allocation.[17].


MacroeconomicsIs one of the standard models used inIS-LM analysisWith the proper combination of fiscal and monetary policy (Policy mix) Can stabilize economic fluctuations.monetary easingThere is no immediate effect because it is not possible to concentrate the investment on the painful part, and fiscal policy is indispensable to fill the large output gap.[18]..Especially due to recession and low inflationLiquidity trapIn a situation where interest rate cuts by monetary policy are no longer effective, fiscal policy that directly expands effective demand by the government becomes important.

Official discount rateな どPolicy interest rateIt is said that while the impact of monetary policy on the economy, such as the reduction of monetary policy, takes time from the invocation of the policy, the effect of fiscal policy is often said to take a short time to manifest.Money supplyIt is often said that it will take several quarters for the increase in public works to increase nominal GDP, but it is said that the increase in public works projects will be effective at the time of spending. For this reason, fiscal policy is used to stabilize economic fluctuations.(English editionThe idea spread.

Fiscal policy implemented by the government is the simplest means for managing aggregate demand, and if public investment and fiscal spending as government investment are expanded, aggregate demand will surely increase accordingly.[19].. Invoking fiscal policy usually has a greater impact on the economy in terms of demand due to the multiplier effect. Therefore, even if unemployment occurs, other unemployment can be resolved by solving a part of it with fiscal policy. Eradication of unemployment is directly linked to social stability. In addition, if appropriate public goods are supplied,Social capitalBrings to improve the productivity of the economy as a wholeMarket failureWill have a positive effect on the supply side as well.

EconomistHideomi Tanaka"If we issue long-term government bonds to revitalize the economy, tax revenues will increase as the economy as a whole expands, and in the long run, we will curb or reduce the issuance of government bonds. This is a normal idea." Pointed out[20].

Nobuo Ikeda"Financial spending is basically only effective in the year in which it is spent."[21].

Takuro Morinaga"One of the reasons why fiscal policy is said to be ineffective is the timing issue. If fiscal mobilization is done, the effect will come out over the next few years to decades. In the early stages of fiscal mobilization, the budget deficit However, the basic effect is that it will be gradually recovered due to the increase in tax revenue accompanying the economic expansion and will eventually become positive. "[22].

EconomistMasazumi Wakatabe"The effect of fiscal policy depends on expectations. Fiscal policy always collects tax somewhere. In short, the effect of policy depends on the expectation of when to collect tax," he points out.[23].

EconomistYasushi Harada,Daiwa Institute of Research"Tax cuts are less effective than public works, but it depends on the difference in thinking whether public works are better. Tax cuts promote the reduction of the size of the government and the expansion of the people's economic freedom, but public investment The increase will direct the government to use it for the people. "[24].

Multiplier effect

Of public investmentMultiplier effectThe multiplier effect of tax reduction is theoretically smaller than that, and it is also shown by the quantitative analysis of the Cabinet Office.[25].. Also, tax cuts and fiscal spending at the same time make it difficult to distinguish the resulting changes.[26].

EconomistPaul KrugmanSays that the multiplier effect of tax cut policy is only about 0.5[27].

EconomistNorihisa IwataAs a factor that fiscal spending weakens the multiplier effect,

  1. People may think that it is a temporary increase in income and not increase consumption
  2. Increased government bond balances could lead people to anticipate future tax increases, curb consumption and save money
  3. An increase in the balance of government bonds may cause interest rates to rise and the domestic currency to rise, resulting in a decrease in exports, which may offset the effect of expanding demand.

And says that this also applies to tax cuts[28].

Yutaka Harada said, "If government spending increases, GDP will increase by a multiplier.Keynesian economicsIf the idea is correct, no matter how much fiscal spending is increased, the ratio of debt to nominal GDP should not increase. "[29].. Harada also said, "Keynes's multiplier is premised on a high unemployment rate situation. In such a situation, it is possible that the multiplier is large, but eventually employment will expand and it will not be possible to expand further. What kind of situation? It is unlikely that the multiplier will be large even in the situation. "[30].

Regarding the argument that "the multiplier effect of fiscal policy (in Japan) is declining due to changes in the economic structure," Hideomi Tanaka said, "The declining effect of fiscal policy is mainly due to the tightening stance of monetary policy. And that has significantly reduced the multiplier effect. "[31].


In fiscal policyNational economyIf you create effective demand that far exceeds your supply capacity, you will experience high inflation,SpeculationDue to overheatingバ ブ ルMay occur.When the automatic stabilization function has an excessive effect and has adverse effects such as an increase in tax burden during the economic expansion period and worsening the economy, it is called a ficcal drug.1970 eraWas actively discussed.

EconomistHeizo TakenakaIs "Keynes policyIs not all-purpose. It's okay to increase demand because of increased unemployment, but it doesn't mean that the government will reduce fiscal spending just because it eliminates unemployment. Once you do a public project, it will be difficult to reduce it. In a democratic society, if we start to create demand to eliminate unemployment, our finances will expand drastically and we will be in the red. "[32].

Yutaka Harada points out that "the effects of fiscal policy are unsustainable and will cause a reactionary decline in the long run."[33].. In the case of Japan, Yutaka Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research said, "Public works projects worth 1% of nominal GDP worsen the ratio of fiscal balance to GDP by 0.5%.[34]"For 1% of nominal GDPincome taxTax cuts worsen fiscal balance to GDP by 0.81%[35]"I point out.

EconomistAsahi NoguchiHidetomi Tanaka said, "The original function of public finance is through tax collection rather than macro stabilization.Public financeIs the supply of. Fiscal spending as an economic measure involves political interests, so there will be a lot of "waste money". "[36].

EconomistJames M. BuchananPoints out that public finances are downwardly rigid and tend to continue to expand without contracting.[37].. Buchanan's argument that "the budget deficit is embedded in democracy"UnionIt led to a movement to refrain from wages and emphasize the wage mechanism.[38].

First of all to carry out public worksbudgetThe time from policy decision to implementation is not always shorter than monetary policy, as it requires action and requires the resolution of parliament and local councils. Some American economists believe that fiscal policy has often exacerbated economic fluctuations in the United States.

EconomistMilton FriedmanCriticizes the economic stabilization of fiscal policy, saying that the government does not have the ability to choose effective fiscal spending, and that policy decisions are delayed and ineffective.[39].

Iwata said, "It takes a long time for the government to approve and execute policy formulation and budget deliberation after recognizing inflation and recession, and it is already too late as a countermeasure, or conversely, economic fluctuations. It may also encourage them. "[40].. Iwata also said, "Given the delay between the perception of inflation and recession and the implementation of policies,Total demandThere is a limit to the effectiveness of discretionary fiscal policy aimed at fine-tuning[40]"Fiscal policySocial capitalWith the formation of社会 保障Such asIncome redistributionYou should concentrate on policy[41]"I point out.

Economist Kenneth Rogoff said, "Economists in so many countries believe that the solution to economic problems is to cut taxes and subsidize to maintain the status quo. In the country aloneKeynesianismStimulation may alleviate the pain of recession. However, if all countries try to stimulate consumption at the same time, the policy effect will not be exerted.[42]"Unfortunately, Keynesian demand management policies are not a panacea. Tax cuts increase productivity in the long run, but expanding the government sector is not a prescription for regaining economic vitality.Market economyThere are many beneficial policies that the government should implement in the country, but excessive demand for stimulus measures is not beneficial for rational debate. Of course, national finance is also an issue.[43]"I point out.

Reasonable expectation formation hypothesisAccording to the company, even if the tax is reduced, people may anticipate a future tax increase and save all the tax reduction in preparation for the tax increase.[44].. On the other hand, there is a counterargument to the theory of rational expectation formation that people are not rational and spend most of their tax cuts on consumption without preparing for future tax increases.[45].

EconomistYoshiyasu OnoIs "Unemployed OfSafety netIt is better to utilize the financial resources as wages rather than subsidies and tax cuts. "[46].

Asahi Noguchi and Hideomi TanakaMacroeconomic policyFiscal policy as, caused by cyclical factorsunemployment-bankruptcyReducing as much as possible is a crucial function that only the government can do. If the government refuses to exercise its economic capacity and neglects unemployment or bankruptcy because it hates the temporary expansion of its budget deficit, it will deny the government's economic basis itself. "[47].

Hidetomi Tanaka said, "When fiscal policy is implemented during a recession, it is not wise to deny it based solely on efficiency. For example, hiring a large number of civil servants means that there are many people with low productivity. Is. "[48].

Yutaka Harada said, "If you want to create jobs with government spending, it is desirable not to be biased toward specific spending. If you focus on specific spending, supply bottlenecks will be created and prices will rise, hindering the effect of employment expansion." Pointing out[49].

Hidetomi Tanaka said, "There is a problem that increasing the proportion of the government sector in the economy by increasing fiscal spending will bring about inefficiency in the economy as a whole. When taking measures against the recession, it must be combined with monetary policy. Must be "[50].

Thoughts on Fiscal Policy and Its Changes

In the United StatesRobert Lucas,Robert BarroThe shift of economic policy from "discretion" to "rules" due to their criticism, andcorruptionAnd budget deficits, deterioration of efficiency, etc.Government failureNowadays, experts rarely support the stabilization of economic fluctuations through discretionary fiscal policy.

See belowMandel Fleming modelBy BarrowRicardian equivalence of public debtIn the United States1980 From around that time, stabilization of economic fluctuations came to be considered to be the role of monetary policy. Therefore, the purpose of fiscal policy is to move away from economic measures and to increase capital permanently.Tax reductionOr to increase revenueTax increaseOr can only be supplied to the governmentPublic financeThe center was the provision and assistance of.

This means that one policy measure is required for each policy goal.Timbergen's theoremAs can be seen from the above, one goal of economic stabilization was thought to be achievable by one policy measure, monetary policy.Fixed exchange rate systemIn those days, monetary policy was given the policy goal of fixing the exchange rate, so fiscal policy was needed as another policy measure to stabilize the economy.Floating exchange rateAs monetary policy became free from maintaining the exchange rate, monetary policy could be used for economic stabilization.

Mandel Fleming model

Without monetary easing, fiscal stimulus from fiscal policy is due to rising interest rates and capital investmentCrowding out(Except when interest rates do not rise at zero bound due to liquidity traps, etc.). In addition, the Mundell-Fleming model shows that in a floating exchange rate system, it is a small economic country that does not affect the world interest rate level, capital movement is completely free, and domestic and foreign assets are completely alternatives. In the case of a country that isExchange ratePrice increase (in the case of JapanAppreciation of the yen)OutputDecrease /輸入It can be seen that the increase will diminish the economic stimulus effect of the initial increase in fiscal spending. In Japan from the 1970s to the 80s, the optimal policy mix of monetary policy and fiscal policy to mitigate these effects was an issue for macroeconomic policy.

Incidentally,Kyoto UniversityProfessor of Graduate School of EngineeringSatoshi FujiiIs based on the assumption that the Mundell-Fleming model is inflationary.Deflation(However, there is no explanation on the premise of inflation and the grounds that it does not work in deflation), and insists that fiscal policy will not be invalidated in Japan under deflation. Is[51][Reliability required verification].

Public works to dig and fill holes

Although the measurement of the economic well-being of the people is essentially based on the utility, it is very difficult to actually measure it and integrate it as the utility of the whole people, and it is a substitute variable for consumption. The next best thing is to measure the happiness of the people by their size. And investment (part of public enterprises and private investment) is meaningful to increase future consumption by increasing productivity, and it is the sum of current consumption and investment related to future consumption. In that respect, it makes sense to look at GDP statistics as an indicator of the well-being of the people.

Given the above, it is desirable that public works projects with zero productivity simply by digging and filling holes will certainly increase GDP, but will not directly increase current or future consumption. Nor is it desirable. GDP and public works will change in parallel, and consumption + private investment will be constant, so consumption will not increase considering the current and future. However, it is significant in that the consumption of low-income earners will increase due to income redistribution.

Furthermore, in the case of public works projects that do not dig holes and fill them, it is possible that productivity will decrease (in reality, roads and boxes with almost zero productivity require effort to maintain them. When opportunity costs are incurred, or when investing in equipment that simply interferes with production activities). In such a case, the current consumption does not change, and the future consumption decreases due to the decrease in productivity, which is not desirable.

When social waste of involuntary unemployment is occurring, it is generally desirable to eliminate it with public works projects, but it is still desirable depending on what the labor force is directed to. It will be very different. This is because as of 2013, it is not as clear as in the past what kind of business is preferable, regardless of the content of the business, it is a public project.Effective demandIt means that the problem of the idea that it is better to increase the number is increasing.

After all, the theory of effective demand is that the natural fact that there are superiority and inferiority depending on the investee is neglected by the words "you can dig a hole and fill it", originally it is the consumption now and in the future. Although it is a problem, it has problems such as the fact that it has come to be seen that GDP should be increased regardless of that.

Liquidity trap

JapaneseZero interest rate policyRepresented by the recession below,Liquidity trapWhen the effectiveness of monetary policy declines, such as when approaching1929 Like the world economy ofpanicThere is also a view that even as of 2013, it is necessary to stimulate demand by invoking fiscal policy in the event of a sudden economic downturn. However, there are some doubts as to whether Japan is actually in a liquidity trap or whether the liquidity trap can be a real economy.[52].


1960 eraから1980 eraIn Japan, an attempt was made to stabilize the economy through fiscal policy. Stacked in the 1980sPublic fixed capital formationCame to 238 trillion yen[53].

1990 eraat firstBubble burstInitially, fiscal policy was attempted to stimulate the economy when the economic downturn continued.1992 Since the comprehensive economic measures in August[54], The business scale of economic measures by the 120th fiscal policy exceeded 57.1 trillion yen, and as a result of the implementation of additional expenditure of 1990 trillion yen (social capital development such as public investment), public fixed capital formation accumulated in the 382s Came to XNUMX trillion yen[53]..However, the consumption tax hike in 1997, before the economy recovered in earnest,Koizumi Cabinet OfBone policyIntroduced byPrimary balanceBased on the goal of profitabilityAusterityAs a result, sufficient fiscal policy has not been implemented.Lost ten yearsIt became.It is also based on a static fiscal equilibriumStop-go policyIt was a typical operation, so it did not produce much results.[55].

in JapanPublic investment multiplierは、1950-1972年までは、1年目は2.3、2年目で4.5程度であったが、変動相場制後の1973年からは1年目は1.4、2年目で1.9程度に低下した[56].International transfer of capitalSince the 1980s, when the public works project was in full swing, the public investment multiplier has not declined further and has not changed.[56].


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