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🌏 | Information BOX: “Monkeypox” expanding in Europe and the United States, dangers and characteristics


Information BOX: "Monkeypox" expanding in Europe and the United States, dangers and characteristics

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In particular, the West African virus strain confirmed in the United States has a case fatality rate of about 1%.

[New York XNUMXst Reuters] – World Health Organization (WHO) has sporadic infections in some parts of Africa ... → Continue reading


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Fatality rate

EpidemiologyInFatality rate (Chimeiritsu, CFR: case fatality rate, case fatality risk) isFatal risk,LethalityAlso known as having a specific illnesspopulationOf these, the infection was the cause of deathDeathToProportionIs.Case fatality rate is usually expressed as a percentageriskRepresents the measured value of[1] .


Case fatality rate is the outbreak of acute infectious diseases, etc., for individual diseases[Annotation 1]Separate the passage of time[Annotation 2]It is generally used.

For example, suppose 100 out of 9 people diagnosed with the same disease in a community died.This means that 100 out of 9 people officially diagnosed with the disease died and 91 recovered.Therefore, the case fatality rate is 9%.

Also, if some of the cases were being treated during the study period and neither died nor recovered, case fatality could be inaccurate.For infectious diseases that occur frequently in a day and take a long time to recover or die, the difference between the case fatality rate calculated at the initial stage of outbreak and the case fatality rate finally obtained becomes large.

Case fatality rate (case fatality rate), whose denominator is the number of affected people (number of patients), is oftenmortality rateIs confused with.Mortality ratepopulationThis is a survey of the number of deaths (total of all causes of death or by specific disease), and the number of people and the period are set.The denominator is population.For example, per 1 people in one yearDiabetes mellitusIf there are 50 deaths due to diabetes, the diabetes mortality rate will be 10000:50 or 1000: 5.

Relationship between case fatality rate, survival rate and mortality rate
Case fatality rate = number of deaths / number of morbiditySurvival rate = 1 − Case fatality rateMortality = Deaths / Population

Strictly speaking, the case fatality rate is actuallyriskOr the cumulative incidence, with a value between 0 and 1.PercentageThe number of occurrences,ratioAlso different. (These do not take values ​​from 0 to 1) Strictly speaking, the term "case fatality rate" is incorrect because it does not take into account the time from onset of disease to death.[Annotation 3]..Nonetheless, case fatality rate (and the English acronym CFR) is heavily used in the scientific literature.

実 例

The examples given below will help you understand the possible values ​​of case fatality in the real world.

  • Transmissible spongiform encephalopathyCase fatality rate is 100% and there is no cure[2].
  • Spanish coldCase fatality rate is 2.5% or more[3]Asian coldHong Kong coldIs about 0.1%, less than 0.1% in other influenza pandemics[4].
  • MERSCase fatality rate is 35%,SARSThe case fatality rate is 11%.
  • LegionellaThe case fatality rate is about 15%.
  • yellow feverCase fatality rate is 20% to 50% with proper treatment.
  • PlagueCase fatality rate can reach up to 60% without treatment.
  • ZaireEbola virusIs one of the most deadly viruses, with a case fatality rate of 90%[5].
  • Rabies virusBefore the onsetvaccineIt is extremely fatal if unvaccinated people are infected and untreated, with a case fatality rate of virtually 100%.
  • Used as a biological weaponAnthraxIs classified into three types, pulmonary anthrax, cutaneous anthrax, and intestinal anthrax, depending on the site of infection, but the case fatality rate of pulmonary anthrax exceeds 90% without treatment.[6].



  1. ^ fatality rate Rebecca A. Harrington - Britannica Encyclopedia
  2. ^ “Cellular models for discovering prion disease therapeutics: Progress and challenges”. Journal of Neurochemistry n / A (n / a): 150–172. (January 2020). two:10.1111 / jnc.14956. PMID 31943194. 
  3. ^ 1918 influenza: the mother of all pandemics.
  4. ^ case-fatality rate of H5N1.
  5. ^ Ebola virus.
  6. ^ "About infectious diseases with a high possibility of bioterrorism”. Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

注 釈

  1. ^ The original is diseases with discrete.Judging that the case fatality rate cannot be calculated correctly if people with multiple life-threatening illnesses are included.
  2. ^ The mortality rate is the same, but the case fatality rate cannot be obtained unless the period is divided.
  3. ^ It should be the case fatality rate in a certain period.There is also an opinion that if time is not taken into consideration, it should be a "fatal rate" because it is a proportion rather than a rate (Public health perspective on "new" influenza control).

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