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🌏 | Monetary policy affects mortgages and the economy, should not be touched now = Prime Minister Kishida


Monetary policy affects mortgages and the economy and should not be touched now = Prime Minister Kishida

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When Prime Minister Kishida explained the reason why the national democracy did not insist on a monetary policy change to correct the depreciation of the yen, Mr. Tamaki replied, "There is an economic deflationary gap, and monetary tightening is impossible." Can be agreed in that you shouldn't touch it now. "

[Tokyo XNUMXst Reuters] – Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (President of the Liberal Democratic Party) was in a party leader debate on the XNUMXst, and the influence of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy ... → Continue reading


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    Correcting the depreciation of the yen

    Output gap

    Output gap(Sanshutsuryo gap, output gap) isEconomicsAtPotential outputThe difference between (potential GDP) and actual (actual output).GDPgap(GDP gap) orOutput gapAlso called.


    If the total output is Y and the potential output is Y *, it is calculated as YY *.If this difference is a positive numberInflation gap Called (inflationary gap)Total demandThe increase in[1]In the event of a shortage of supply, prices will continue to rise.EconomyToinflation(Boom).If it is a negative numberDeflation gap Called (recessionary gap)DeflationPressure to bring about (depression)[2].

    The output gap percentage is calculated by dividing the difference between the actual GDP (GDP actual) and the potential GDP (GDP potential) by the potential GDP.


    Okun's Law: Relationship between Output and Unemployment

    With outputunemploymentA stable negative correlation was observed between them.Okun's LawCalled.This law can be expressed as follows.

    Output gap (%) = -β × Circular unemploymentrate (%)

    Every time the output gap (GDP gap) decreases by β%, the cyclical unemployment rate (actual unemployment rate- Natural unemployment rate) Increases by 1%.

    The above relationship can also be expressed as:

    (YY *) / Y * = -β (u-ū)

    The meanings of the symbols are as follows:

    • Y is the actual output
    • Y * is potential output
    • u is the actual unemployment rate
    • Å« is the natural rate of unemployment
    • β is a constant derived from the above regression analysis


    Cabinet OfficeAccording to "This Week's Index No. 1055", Japan's output gap in the July-September period of 2012 is estimated to be minus 7%.Japanese economyIs in a state of demand shortage (excess supply) of about 15 trillion yen in terms of annualized nominal value.[3][4]However, the level of the output gap differs depending on the definition, prerequisite data, and estimation method, so it is necessary to look at it with a considerable range.The Cabinet Office said, "On average in view of past economic trends.Factors of production"GDP that can be realized when the product is introduced" is called potential GDP, and based on this definition.National accountsThe output gap is calculated by estimating the potential GDP of.[5][6][7]

    In 2011Great East Japan EarthquakeWas a shock that restrained demand and constrained supply.The effectAs a result, the potential utilization rate of the manufacturing industry has declined, and it is thought that the potential capital input has been pushed down.Capital stockDamage,Power crisis,Supply chainProduction activities were hindered due to supply constraints such as disruption of production.[8]It is estimated that the potential GDP decreased by 4 trillion yen in the I period and 1 trillion yen in the II period, then increased by 7 trillion yen in the III period and increased by 1 trillion yen in the IV period.[4]If the potential GDP is extended by the pre-earthquake trend, it is almost the same as the value in the period I of 2012, and the trend potential growth rate in 2011 was not so different from the previous year.[9].


    [How to use footnotes]
    1. ^ [Kabu.com Securities]Inflation Gap Financial Securities GlossaryRetrieved February 2021, 12
    2. ^ Richard G. Lipsey and Alec Chrystal. EconomicsOxford University Press. 11th edition. January 2007. p.
    3. ^ Reuters. (June 2012, 12) 
    4. ^ a b "This Week's Indicator No.1055 About the estimation result of the output gap after the second preliminary GDP report for the July-September period of 2012 (This week's indicator No.7 Update of Figure 9)”. Cabinet Office (July 2012, 12). 2012/12/15Browse.
    5. ^ "Japanese Economy 2010-2011 Appendix 1-1 Output Gap Estimate Method”. Cabinet Office (July 2010, 12). 2011/4/29Browse.
    6. ^ "19 Annual Economic and Financial Report Appendix 1-2 GDP Gap Estimate Method”. Cabinet Office (July 2007). 2011/4/29Browse.
    7. ^ "This Week's Index No.1026 Output Gap after SNA Standard Revision”. Cabinet Office (July 2012, 3). 2012/3/21Browse.
    8. ^ "Japanese Economy 2011-2012 Chapter 1 Section 1 Shaking Japanese Economy". Cabinet Office. 2012/5/31Browse.
    9. ^ "This Week's Indicator No.1032 Output Gap for January-March 2012 Improves”. Cabinet Office (July 2012, 5). 2012/12/15Browse.[Broken link]

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