Measures against global warmingAccording to its direction, it can be roughly divided into "mitigation" to control global warming and "adaptation" to global warming.
Global warmingVarious voluntary efforts and policy measures have been promoted as mitigation measures, and some of them have been recognized for their effectiveness.At present, its effect is not enough to suppress global warming, and it is still today.Greenhouse gasEmissions continue to increase.But when combined with the mitigations that humanity currently has, in the coming decadesGreenhouse gas emissionsIt is considered economically possible to curb the increase in CO20 emissions and reduce CO30 emissions to levels below current levels.At the same time, "mitigation efforts over the next XNUMX to XNUMX years will have a significant impact."Climate changeIt is predicted that the benefits of early and powerful measures against the situation will outweigh the costs, and it is pointed out that there is a need for larger and more immediate measures than the current situation.IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Third Working Group Report<Hereafter referred to as "AR4 WG III">,Stern Report).
Already happening in parallel with global warming mitigation measuresImpact of global warmingMeasures against so-calledAdaptation measuresAs for, various voluntary actions and policy actions are being promoted.
Framework for measures
The largest international framework for discussing mitigation and adaptation measures for global warmingFramework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP), and based on this conferenceKyoto ProtocolWas enacted in 1997.Also, as a successor to the Kyoto ProtocolParis AgreementWas signed in 2015.A multilateral international agreement (agreement) stipulates measures against global warming after 2020.
In addition, as a political framework, mainly local government units (WMCCC) And (CCP)and so on.All of them have formulated specific content and plans for mitigation measures.Yukio Hatoyama Cabinetwill reduce carbon dioxide emissions to 2020% of 1990 emissions by 25 %declared a reduction[1].
4th reportThen, it is said that the concentration of greenhouse gases when stabilized after all measures are taken is the key.The faster the greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, the lower the concentration at stabilization, the lower the average temperature rise, and the smaller the economic loss.The slower the slowerSpecies declineIrreversible losses such as, economic losses, environmental refugees, etc. will increase.Therefore, it is important to determine the maximum concentration that can be tolerated when taking countermeasures.
A trial calculation was made from the perspective of the balance between countermeasure costs and economic loss.Stern ReportSo let's set the CO2 concentration to 550 ppmin the world'sGDPIt is estimated to be 1% of GDP, which is a huge amount but affordable, and sufficiently small compared to the expected damage (approximately 20% of GDP at the end of this century) if no countermeasures are taken.As a reference, the correspondence relationship between the concentration of greenhouse gases and the predicted increase in average temperature is also shown. If CO2050 emissions in 2 are -2000 - 85% of 50 levels, emissions will peak by 2015.Industrial revolutionThe temperature increase from the previous year will be 2.0 - 2.4 ℃, -30 - +5 % will peak by 2030, 2.8 - 3.2 ℃, +90 - +140 will peak by 2090, 4.9 - 6.1 ℃, etc. , 6 patterns were predicted.on the other hand,Flood area,islandsSince some areas are vulnerable to the effects of global warming, the degree of damage that can be tolerated varies depending on the country or region.No political or international consensus has been reached on how much concentration or temperature can be allowed to rise.
In any case, a wide range of technical and policy measures such as energy (power generation, heat, power), transportation, energy conservation and carbon fixation will reduce greenhouse gas emissions throughout society.Low carbon societyIt is necessary to buildIn addition, it is said that efforts over the next 10 to 30 years will have a decisive impact (AR4 WGIII,Stern Report, IEA[2] etc).Although the measures are moving in the direction of progress, the pace is too slow and it seems that it will follow a dangerous path as it is.[2]..However, it is economically wrong to postpone further measures, and it has been pointed out that there is an urgent need for larger-scale actions than the current situation.[2].
Mitigation technology
(Note: The content of this section may not be exhaustive.AR4It may be necessary to add more from such factors)
For mitigation, it is important to develop and disseminate new low-emission technologies and make efforts to reduce emissions themselves (AR4 WGIII,Stern Report).
Energy supply sideIn, the following technologies are effective in reducing carbon dioxide emissions.In particular, reduction efforts over the next 20 years are important (AR4 WGIII,Stern Report).
Technologies expected to spread in the next 10-30 years:
Nuclear powerUtilization of ... Low cost and low carbon emissionsBase loadIt has been pointed out that it is effective as a product.HoweverNuclear accidentMany have pointed out that the cost is rather high when the cost is taken into consideration.
SteelmakingLow emissions in the sector ... The spread of steelmaking technology to the world in Japan, where efficiency is high, is being considered.
For houses, cars and shipsSolar cellEquipped with.
Each measure has its own limits, and if only the proportion of specific measures increasesCost-effectivenessIt has been pointed out that it is necessary to think about the energy supply system as a whole becauseStern Report).For example, the following issues have been pointed out (Stern Report,[3]).
Part ofbiomassImproving the effect of reducing emissions in fuel and eliminating competition with food
International Energy Agencyprojections to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm, of the emissions reductions by 2050, renewable energy will cut 21%, CCS 19%, nuclear power 6%, and the rest A scenario is presented in which 54% of the[3].
Technologies that may become widespread in the future:
Although it is not expected to spread until 10-30 years from now, there is a possibility that it will spread after that
Fusion energy,Space solar powerResearch and development such as these are underway, but there is no proof that they can be put to practical use because they are all in the development and research stages, and there is no prospect of mass diffusion in the next 10 to 30 years.
Energy Conservation
Reduce emissions by achieving the same social and economic benefits with less energy.Specific mitigation measures include the following.
Top runner system --A policy system that keeps energy conservation standards above a certain level.
Power saving… Stopping unnecessary equipment,Standby powerReduction,electric billReduction, operation control according to the load of air conditioning equipment
Repair of equipment / equipment, replacement with efficient equipment
Coefficient of performanceHighCold heat source equipment(Cooling / heating / water heater at home), fuel-efficient car,Luminous efficiencyHigh lighting, adoption of electrical products with high conversion efficiency and low power consumption, and implementation of planned maintenance.
Energy-saving design-Adopt energy-saving specifications from the design and construction stage.BREEAM(England),LEED(America),CASBEEThere is an evaluation system such as (Japan).
Insulation,LOWE double glazingImproves heat insulation and heat insulation performance and reduces air conditioning load
Local irradiation of air conditioners (Successful use of small adjacent installations such as ceramic fan heaters at the seating feet and advanced spot ventilation function of air conditioners)
(en) ,Human sensor, Lighting control by illuminance sensor, etc.
Throttle controller(Car accelerator mitigation device: Do not waste gasolineeco DriveThe support mechanism can be incorporated into the car as a device)
Energy management system (BEMS, HEMS) --A system that automatically manages manufacturing equipment, air conditioning, lighting, etc. using a computer and optimizes the amount of energy and raw materials used.
Depends on the organismCarbon fixationIt is also effective to increase the amount of carbon absorbed by promoting the above.With the Kyoto ProtocolSink activityThis is the one that is stipulated as, and specifically, there are the following.
Carbon dioxide capture and storageResearch is also progressing on (CCS) technology, and if it is put into practical use, it is said that it will become an important option for the time being, especially for cheap fossil fuels such as coal (AR4 WGIII,Stern Report).
Grow hydrogen bacteria on CO2 to produce protein for food[5].
Geoengineering measures
As a measure when the above mitigation measures do not go well, or as a transitional measure until the measures become effective,GeoengineeringMeasures have also been proposed.However, it has various risks, and none of them are treated as effective measures.
Parasol effectArtificial outbreak-artificiallyaerosolA proposal to cool the earth by the parasol effect by releasing a large amount of into the atmosphere.not treated as an effective measure[6].
Sun lightBlocking / Reflection-Using engineering technology, artificially the surface of the earth and the atmosphereAlbedoA proposal to try to cool the earth by increasing the temperature and blocking sunlight.Some are technically possible, but their effectiveness as a long-term measure is questioned, and they are treated as transitional measures.[7].
Iron to the oceanUreaSpraying- PhytoplanktonSprinkle nutrients that promote the growth ofphotosynthesisThe idea is to promote carbon dioxide and fix carbon dioxide.[8]..However, the input of such fertilizer is toxic.AlgaeIt has been pointed out that there is a risk that it will lead to the proliferation of seawater, reduce the oxygen concentration in seawater, and produce a dead sea area.[9]..The long-term effects are not clear, and it has been pointed out that methane, which is a greenhouse gas stronger than carbon dioxide, may be generated, which may have the opposite effect.[10][11].
Measures whose effectiveness has been denied
地球Movement (World Jump DayEtc.)-Earth'srevolutionOrbitThe idea of shifting it away from the sun.It has been found to be ineffective both theoretically and empirically.
It is also effective to reduce the amount of wasted energy through the formation of a recycling-oriented society as listed below.
Waste power generationAnd waste heat utilization,Heat recovery(Including thermal recycling)… It is possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy sources.Produced by putrefaction such as wastemethane gasThe use of is directly linked to the reduction of greenhouse gases.
Reduce… Reducing waste (waste) by improving the durability of products leads to the reduction of greenhouse gases associated with waste collection and treatment.Refuse, repair,Resync,rental,RenovationAlso leads to reduce.
Reuse(Including product recycling)… If the production of new products is suppressed through the reuse of products, it will lead to the reduction of greenhouse gases associated with production.It also leads to a reduction in the amount of waste, and indirectly has the same effect as reduce.Repair, rental, remodeling, etc. are one of the concrete methods of reuse.
Recycling(Material recycling only)… Recycling from existing products and using them rather than collecting and using new resources can reduce greenhouse gas emissions through energy use and resource refining and processing. You may be able to do it.Recycling of aluminum has a high reduction effect.
Refine ...Waste separationThrough this, it may be possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the use of energy and the refining and processing of resources.
Return: By recovering used products and waste, it may be possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the use of energy and the refining and processing of resources.
Repair ... Repairing a broken item and reusing it.It leads to the reduction of waste.
Water saving: It is possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by reducing the amount of energy used for water purification and sewage treatment.
However, effective use of resources is prioritized, and as a result, overall energy consumption and carbon emissions may increase.Life cycle assessmentThrough this, we will consider the formation of a recycling-oriented society in terms of both recycling and greenhouse gases, and aim to achieve both.Environmental technologyIt is necessary to proceed with the development of.NowadaysPlastic that returns to the soilWas developed.
Lifestyle
For all aspects of lifesustainabilityIt has also been pointed out that the effectiveness and necessity of the transition to a sustainable society that seeksAR4 WGIII).Specifically, lifestyle (Lifestyle) Is aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
IPCCIn the chair ofVegBut alsoRajendra PachauriIt is,Livestock industryGreenhouse gases emitted from the whole account for nearly one-fifth of the world,British GovernmentBy 2020 against the UKMeat consumptiondemanded the implementation of a campaign to reduce by 60%[12].As measures that individuals can take, he proposes lifestyle changes such as reducing meat consumption, using bicycles, and buying only what is necessary.[13].
Eating habits - Globally, enteric fermentation and manure management in ruminant animals such as cattle generate 2.9 - 5.3 Gt of GHG per year.To reduce them, switching to a vegetable-based healthy diet could reduce GHG emissions from the land sector by 0.7 - 8 Gt (CO2 equivalent) annually globally.[14]It is estimated that if half of the world's population ate a diet that restricted the amount of protein from meat to 1 g per day, GHG emissions could be reduced by 60 Gt.Examples of healthy and sustainable diets include low amounts of energy-intensive animal-derived foods and luxury foods (such as sweetened beverages), high amounts of cereals, legumes, vegetables and fruits, nuts and seeds, Diets with carbohydrate thresholds may be considered[15].In addition, alternative meat (derived from plant products) and cultured meat are attracting attention.[16], the ipcc says meat substitutes (from plant products), cultured meat, and meat analogues such as insects have uncertain carbon footprints and acceptability.[14]..When it comes to food,Local production-Food mileage・ Purchase the optimum one from the viewpoint of reducing energy consumption (minimizing energy consumption required for cultivation).
Green purchasing --Purchase or replacement of low-energy products and products that emit less greenhouse gas from manufacturing and disposal.Refraining from excessive purchases,Eco bagThere are various things such as, and a method that can be applied not only to things but also to services.
Transportation / Transportation-Switching to transportation that emits less greenhouse gases.Electric carAnd trains, bicycles, conversion to walking,2 up 3 downetc.
This area has the highest uncertainty regarding potential reductions compared to sink activities and reductions in the industrial sector.JapaneseKyoto Protocol Target Achievement PlanIn the discussion of the revision of the 2010 plan, the calculation of specific figures for the amount of greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced by 678 million to 1050 million tons in fiscal XNUMX through improvements in people's lifestyles is unclear. erupted criticism of[17].
Elimination of excess population by curbing population growth
Developing countryButPopulation grows, The world population is overpopulated, therebyHarmful to the environmentThis is recognized in many countries, but the effects of population control are rarely discussed at the Global Warming Countermeasures Conference.Birth rateThere is an idea to protect human rights while reducing greenhouse gas emissions due to overpopulation.Educate girls and young women (Girls' education) To improve the educational situation,Gender equalityIt is thought that the population growth will be suppressed and the population will decrease naturally by giving them the opportunity to work.[23][24][25].
Demographic transition (demographic transition) theory called,Population changeThere is a pattern of.Demographic changes can be divided into three stages, depending on economic conditions, from high fertility to low birth rate to low birth rate and low death rate.
Stage 1 Prolific and prolific death.Traditional societyでAgricultureIt requires a lot of manpower and has a high birth rate, but many people die from hunger, plague, and war.
Stage 2 Prolific and low death.Due to economic development生活 の 質, With improved medical caremortality rateWill decline, but the fertility rate is still high.
Stage 3 Low birth and low death.FurtherEconomic developmentThis reduces the mortality rate, while also reducing the birth rate.The cause of the decline in the birth rate is that of childrenChildcare costsIncreaseFemale independenceEtc. can be considered[26].
By providing educational opportunities to those who have few learning opportunities, we encourage social advancement and promote social advancement.National economyIt is thought that population growth can be suppressed by developing the birth rate and mortality rate.[22].
On the other hand, criticisms of population control and reduction are also rising.The idea of providing educational opportunities and reducing the population isDeveloped countryでThe population is decliningBased on this, the idea is to create a state similar to that of developed countries in developing countries.In other words, it is a way of thinking aimed at developing countries, and it is a political and dangerous way of thinking that developed countries try to control the population of developing countries.This idea is based on science for developing countries for global warming countermeasures.RacistMay justify some behavior[27].
Even if the population declines, the impact on global warming is considered to be limited, and all greenhouse gases, regardless of population, must be stopped.In addition, GDP has already risen in many developing countries, and a decline in the birth rate in the early stages of growth can disrupt the rise in GDP, reduce GDP growth, and conversely hinder population decline. There is also the idea that there is sex[27].
Emission control system
Energy and energy to understand carbon dioxide emissionsConsumer goodsThere is a system that estimates it indirectly from the amount of usage.Consider the load on the entire environmentEcological footprintFor greenhouse gasesCarbon footprintThat is.At home, it is possible to easily calculate by inputting the amount of electricity, water, gas, etc. used.In the case of a companyEnvironmental accountingHowever, we have incorporated greenhouse gas emissions.Accounting standardsHas not been standardized yet.
In addition, so-called greenhouse gas emissions are displayed in various fields such as products / services and civic activities.visualizationThere is a movement to make efforts.
Mitigation costs
The cost of mitigation is predicted to be orders of magnitude lower than the expected scale of damage, based on reports such as the one below.At the same time, it has been pointed out that the amount of damage and mitigation costs will increase if there is no hurry.
Stern Reportestimates that the cost of stabilizing the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at 550 ppm would be about 1% of the world's GDP (Stern ReportSee).
IEAIn a report released in June 2008, the company estimated the cost of measures to stabilize the energy supply at 6 ppm at around 450% of the world's GDP.[3]..In addition, in 2011, for every $ 2020 reduction in investment to reduce emissions in the power sector by 1, we predict that an additional $ 2020 investment will be required after 4.3.[2].. "Deferring action is economically wrong" and "we cannot afford to postpone further action to deal with climate change," calling for the need for urgent and large-scale action.[2].
OECDIs a report released in 2012[29] In, if humanity does not take effective measures, "climate change,biodiversityWarns that it will have "significant economic and human impact costs and consequences" for "health effects of water and pollution".[30].Also, if the concentration of greenhouse gases is suppressed to 450 ppm,economic growth rateGDP will be depressed by an average of 0.2 percentage points annually, shaving some 2050 percent from world GDP in 5.5, but this is trivial compared to the potential costs of doing nothing.”[30].
Mitigation policy
Promotion of development and dissemination of new technology
It has been pointed out that it is necessary to invest more aggressively than the current situation in order to develop and disseminate the above new technologies (AR4 WGIII,Stern Report).When dissemination, large amount of fossil fuelSubsidyHowever, it has been pointed out that these new technologies will be hindered from spreading, and that the price of new technologies will decrease with the spread (Stern Report).Specific policies include the following.
Increased R & D funding for new technologies
再生 可能 エネルギーMeasures to promote the spread of new energy sources such as --SpecificallyFixed price purchase system(Feed interriff system) etc. are mentioned.
Carbon pricing (below) will relatively enhance the competitiveness of new technologies.
For the spread of energy-saving technology,Top runner systemEtc. are effective.
Carbon pricing
External costCarbon pricing (carbon billing, which imposes some expenditure on greenhouse gas emissions in order to clarify and make low-emission technologies relatively competitive.carbon pricing) Has been pointed out.Specific methods include the following (AR4 WGIII,Stern Report).
AR4 WGIII,Stern ReportIn developing countries, emissions are expected to increase significantly in the future (without countermeasures), while the damage caused by warming in developing countries is also projected to be greater than in developed countries, resulting in emission reductions and carbon fixation. It has been pointed out that it is necessary to provide information and technology regarding such matters.
The need for further enlightenment and enlightenment to the private sector and citizens has been pointed out (AR4 WGIII,Stern ReportSuch).
In terms of energy conservation, etc., not only educational activities by governments, companies, and commercial organizations, but also non-profit and private organizations (especially)Environmental protection group), Political / administrative oversight, and civic movements are also active.Also, mainly in terms of policy, through schools and mass mediaEnvironmental educationHas also been done.
It has been pointed out that there is a difference in recognition depending on the position, such as the position of receiving profits and losses due to global warming countermeasures in developing countries, developed countries, and domestic countries, and it is said that enlightenment activities to fill this are also necessary ().AR4 WGIII,Stern ReportSuch).
Global warming countermeasures focus on mitigating global warming,Sea level riseFor problems that are thought to be caused by global warming, such as changes in weather and weather.Adaptation measuresIs also done.In the future, such measures are required in consideration of cases where global warming cannot be prevented, cases where global warming mitigation does not proceed well, and disasters during the grace period until global warming countermeasures are effective.
Measures against sea level rise
The measures against sea level rise are as follows.
Living environment-There are higher floors in the house.Emigration is also being considered in the end (see below).
Infrastructure - climaxPreventive embankment, emergencyreservoirInstallation, securing new drinking water to replace salted water, etc.
Furthermore, as a plan currently in the concept stage, there is a plan called "Delta 6", which puts 10 to 3000 m of sand on the current land and builds a house on it.[31].
Measures against abnormal weather and climate change
Glacier meltingAs a countermeasure against the flood caused by the surrounding villagesWater controlStrengthening measures, migration, etc. can be mentioned.
Measures related to ecosystem conservation and impact on living organisms
As an effect on living things in a broad sense, there is also an effect on humans through the effect on animals and plants that feed.Regarding this, there are the following measures.
Agriculture - Breed improvement, Improvement of farming method, securing of water source, etc.
Resource protection --Regulate, manage and monitor the protection and collection of fishery resources, animals to be hunted, and seedlings of plants used as food and materials.
Dietary / Industrial Transformation-Conversion from rare and declining foods to foods that provide a stable supply.
Environmental refugee measures
Caused by the effects of global warmingEnvironmental refugeesIt is also necessary to take measures against.In the island regions of the Pacific Ocean, which are affected by rising sea levels, discussions on migration and negotiations on migration destinations have already begun.
^William J Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Thomas M Newsome, Phoebe Barnard, William R Moomaw "World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency", BioScience, Vol. 70, No. 1, Oxford University Press, January 2020, two:10.1093 / biosci / biz088.
^John Bongaarts1, Brian C. O'Neill "Global warming policy: Is population left out in the cold?" Science, Vol. 361, No. 6403, American Association for the Advancement of Science, August 2018, 8, pp. 17-650, two:10.1126 / science.aat8680.