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🌏 | FRB to maintain zero interest rate until the second half of 23 = Chicago Fed Governor


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Fed to maintain virtually zero interest rates until late 23 = Chicago Fed Governor

 
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However, inflation is expected to reach 2% in the second half of 22 or 23, so "we do not anticipate a rate hike before 23.
 

[Reuters] – Governor Evans of the Chicago District Fed Bank said on the XNUMXrd that the US economy was hit by the new coronavirus crisis ... → Continue reading

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inflation

inflation(English: inflation) Is the overall price level of goods and services in economics, ie物 価Will rise continuously over a period of timeEconomyIt is a phenomenon. Japanese abbreviation isInflation.. In JapaneseCurrency expansionTranslated as (Tsukabouchi)[1]. mainlyMacroeconomicsPhenomenon studied in.

Consumer price indexThe inflation rate is the rate of increase in various price indexes such as (CPI: consumer price index). Typical inflation was seen by the economy as a whole, with booming demand for the economy and services increasing.Supply and demandbalance of(balanced) Collapses,Total demandIf the amount exceeds the total supply, the increase in prices adjusts the supply and demand. Rising pricescurrencyIt means a decrease in value at the same time. In other words, there are few things that can be bought with the same currency.

Ideally, moderate inflation under growth is desirable, and in fact inflation itself tends to occur during booms, but in rare casesrecessionDespite the fact that prices may continue to rise,Stagflation It is called (stagflation). On the contrary, a sustained drop in pricesDeflation(Deflation, currency contraction).

Etymology

Inflation was originallyMoney supplyRise of, this is so to speak in the citycurrencyIt means that the amount increases (expands), and is also called monetary inflation, which is strictly distinguished from price inflation. Abbreviation for the latterInflationIt is also called, and the term inflation often refers to this price inflation.

物 価

Price stability is an indispensable foundation for the economy to achieve stable and sustainable growth.Central BankPlays a role in contributing to "healthy development of the national economy" through this. Central bankFinancial PolicyThe purpose of "stability of prices" and "stability of financial system"[2].

Asset priceConsidering the position of monetary policy management, asset price stability itself cannot be the final goal of monetary policy, as is the view in 1997 by the authorities and academia in general agreement.[3].General priceStability and asset price stability cannot be achieved by a single policy measure called monetary policy, and monetary policy in which general price stability is assigned with priority can assume the role of asset price stability. Not (→Timbergen's theorem).

The whole (general price) is (Relative price) Is not simply the sum of the relative prices of all markets rising at the same time is arithmetically impossible[4].

Inflation classification

Inflation due to physical factors

Inflation caused by supply falling significantly below demand due to war and industrial structural destruction. Japan immediately after the end of World War II ( 1946) Has recorded over 300% inflation[5]. Also,ジンバブエThen, droughts drove the white farms out of the country by policy and destroyed the agricultural structure, resulting in an extreme shortage of goods, eventually resulting in super hyperinflation of 2 million%.[6].

Demand inflation

Inflation caused by the demand side,Demand pull inflationAlso called (demand-pull inflation). Increased demand (Demand curveUpwards), prices will rise because the willingness to buy will not decline even if prices are high. in this case,Supply curveThe economy will improve unless is vertical (ie not producing).

1973から 1975OverJapanThe cause of inflation inOil shockAttracts attention,Floating exchange rateExcess liquidity due to inflow of short funds just before the transition,Archipelago remodelingExcessive construction demand due to the "boom" is also a major factor.[Source required]

Supply inflation

Supply curveInflation caused by the upward shift ofCost push inflationAlso called (cost-push inflation). In many cases, the economy deteriorates and becomes stagflation or close to it. NormalExchange rateFall, import prices rise and cause inflation, and the burden of repayment of foreign currency debt held by companies increases[7].

As cost push shifts the total supply up,Real GDPDecreases[8].. On the other hand, demand pull will increase real GDP as total demand shifts upward.[8].. In other words, whether it is cost push or demand pull can be determined by the movement of real GDP.[8].BusinessTo determine if prices are rising due to overheating ofConsumer price indexnotGDP deflatorMust see[9].

Cost inflation
It is caused by soaring wages and materials.Crude oil priceTypical examples are inflation due to soaring prices and stagflation due to a consumption tax increase.
Structural inflation
If there is a difference in growth between industries, prices will rise in industries with low productivity and this will occur. For example, assume that productivity and wages have increased in an efficient manufacturing industry. If wages rise higher than productivity improvement in the service industry due to this, service charges will have to be raised, causing inflation.
Export inflation
Caused by increased exports. As a result of companies allocating their products for export, the amount of supply to the domestic market will eventually decrease.BakumatsuIn a periodRaw silkInflation is occurring due to a sharp increase in exports such as. This patternMultiplier effectThere is also an aspect of demand inflation because total demand is increasing.
Import inflation
Inflation abroad affects domestically through imports from other countries. For example, if a country that was importing grain increased domestic demand in the country that exported the grain, or if the export source distributed exports to other countries, grain imports would decline and grain prices would rise. is there. In fact, when China turned into a net grain importer, there was a price surge in the corn market.
Catch-up inflation
Systems that control wages and prices often occur when transitioning to a market economy. In the US and Japan1970 eraIt happened to. In EuropeCold WarAnd the end ofEuropean Central Bank(ECB) Economic integration of Eastern European countries into liberal countries has caused catch-up inflation due to rising wages and service prices in low-wage countries[10].

Inflation due to monetary factors

currencyIt is caused by an increase in the supply amount of. Increasing supply of money reduces the relative value of money with respect to all other goods and services, which is inflation itself. Furthermore, an increase in the supply of money will increase the relative value of bonds to money, which is nominal.interest rateLower. Therefore usuallyinvestmentWill increase, leading to increased demand. Eventually that process results in demand inflation, which in turn leads to inflation. In addition to the normal control of money supply by the central bank such as open market operations, if there is a particular reason for the increase in money supply, it may be called "financial inflation", "credit inflation", "exchange rate inflation", etc. is there.

Financial inflation
Issued by the governmentPublic debtTheCentral Bank(Financial finance, monetization), resulting in an increase in the supply of money[11].. In addition to the effect of monetary easing, demand inflation also occurs due to the effect of effective demand creation by fiscal expenditure. Hyperinflation is often caused by fiscal finance.
Credit inflation
Commercial bankBy increasing lending and credit guaranteesCredit moneyInflation caused by an increase in the supply of
Forex inflation
Inflation that occurs when a large amount of currency is supplied via the foreign exchange market. In some cases, it may particularly refer to the "foreign exchange inflation controversy" in the prewar gold ban.[12][13][14][15].. It should be noted that at that time, the exchange rate system was fixed, and the current exchange rate system had a different effect on the amount of money supplied by movements in the foreign exchange market.

Inflation speed classification

Creeping inflation
Inflation that progresses gently. Inflation is a few percent per year, which is seen during boom times. The economy is considered healthy and is often said to be in good condition. Also called "mild inflation".
Galloping inflation
Inflation that advances rapidly. From "Gallop" which expresses the fast walking of a horse. Inflation rate often refers to more than 10%-several tens of% annually. May occur with stagflation.
Hyper inflation

Economic impact

Inflation is a loss to a person with a certain nominal income, but it is worth it to the person hiring that person[16].

Wages also rise with rising prices, but adjustments are delayed compared to prices, soReal wageLowers the unemployment rate because it makes it easier to increase employment (Phillips curve)[17][18].. Employment increases in the demand-pull type where real GDP increases, and decreases in the cost-push type where real GDP decreases[19].

economistNoRobert LucasInflation fools people into accepting jobs and employers to hire workers. Employees and employers become aware of the government's intent and are not fooled by it, because the inflation-unemployment correlation broke because the government sought to use it." ing[20].. Randsburg said, "Inflation" does not work people, but "unexpected" inflation works people. Under fully anticipated inflation, the unemployed will not work. Fully expected inflation is It doesn't affect anyone's actions."[21].

Unexpected Inflation Benefits Borrowers Repaying Debt in Lower Prices, but Losses Lenders[16].. When the inflation rate exceeds the deposit interest rate, the value of the savings deposit is substantially reduced. If the inflation rate exceeds the lending rate, inflation effectively reduces the value of the debt, resulting in a reduction in the repayment burden (such as a mortgage).

The rise in inflation itself has the effect of raising private consumption[22].. Consumption will increase if the expected inflation rate rises and the real interest rate falls.[22].. However, if the inflation rate rises excessively, it becomes difficult to predict the future,不 確 実 性Consumption and investment will be stagnant due to the increase of.

EconomistYasushi Harada,Daiwa Institute of Research"High inflation lowers people's real income and lowers the value of home-currency denominated assets[23]"Hyperinflation isThe Law of One PriceCause the exchange rate to plunge, causing capital to escape[24]"I point out.

EconomistMitsuharu Ito"People's expectations are diverse, and if prices rise, some may cut their lives. In the past, whether low interest rates would increase capital investment.Economic Planning AgencyCorporate behavior survey of Japan gives negative findings."[25].

"The real economic cost of inflation is that people take costly actions to avoid inflation, and that action is not good for anyone," said Stephen Randsburg.[26].

EconomistNorihisa Iwata"Even if prices rise due to inflation, if wages rise and real income increases, living will become richer," he said.[27].. Iwata points out, "In order to stabilize people's lives, we must maintain the lowest possible inflation rate."[28].. According to Iwata, "price stability in the sense of achieving stable economic growth and employment means that the inflation rate has been around 2-3% in the medium term, based on past experience in each country." Pointing out[29].

EconomistYoichi Takahashi"The consensus is that inflation of 3-5% is in the range of mild inflation and is not a problem for the national economy," he said.[30].. EconomistHeizo Takenaka"It is natural that prices should rise by 1-2% every year," is the consensus of experts around the world. Price increases above 5% are not good."[31].. Takenaka points out that "the ideal is to stabilize the inflation rate in the range of zero to a few percent."[32].

EconomistMasazumi Wakatabe"There are no examples of hyperinflation, and double-digit or higher inflation would have a negative impact on the economy. Perhaps above 2% would not be desirable," he said.[33].

EconomistJoseph E. Stiglitz"Too much attention on inflation has left central banks in some countries indifferent to what is happening in the financial markets. Central banks let the asset bubble swell without restriction. Compared with the cost that the economy will bear by doing so, the cost of gradual inflation will be negligible."[34].

(I.e.

Various measures are being taken to prevent or eliminate inflation.

Examples of measures

Inflation example

World's oldest inflation

The world's oldest inflation recordedKingdom of macedonia OfAlexander the GreatImmediately after the death of323 BCIs said to be[36].Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyAccording to research by Professor Peter Taemin,BabyloniaAlready inMarket economyDue to lack of supply of agricultural productsAchaemenid dynasty PersiaInflation was triggered by an increase in people's anxiety due to the death of the Great King, while there was an inventory of excessive treasures (mainly silver) brought from the conquered land.[36].

Ancient rome

Military emperorOf the eraAncient romeHowever, as a result of repeated exacerbations of silver coins due to the need to increase salaries to soldiers, inflation caused inflation and had an impact on citizens' lives.DiocletianMade a currency reform, but had no effect, 301Issued a royal decree "highest price law" that stipulated the highest prices for goods and services. It is said that there was no evidence of these being carried out, and the effect was weak, but the prices of daily necessities and salaries of each profession are set in detail, and they are valuable historical materials in modern times.[37].

Price Revolution Inflation

PissarrobyInca EmpireAfter the conquestPotosi GinzanA lot of gold and silverスペインWas carried to. 1521から 1660It is said that the amount of gold and silver transported to Spain during the period was 200 tons of gold and 1.8 tons of silver. Since these gold and silver were mainly monetary, their monetary value became one-third in Europe. In other words, inflation has tripled prices, soPrice revolution". Due to the development of commerce and industry due to the supply of money,Feudal lordIt brought about social changes such as the collapse of layers.

Local inflation

In addition to inflation on a national basis, inflation may occur on a regional or city basis. The problem in modern times isUnited Nations peacekeeping operations(Peace-Keeping Operations: PKO)[Source required].. After the ceasefire in the conflict zone, the troops of each country dispatched for peacekeeping are the same as the wealthy who suddenly appear in a place where the economy is exhausted. Therefore, in the vicinity of the garrison, price rises centering on the daily necessities and food items procured by the troops, causing inflation. As a measure, the purchasing activities of troop members outside the garrison are being restrained, and the PKO unit is also conducting the Price Keeping Operation at the same time.

in Japan,MeijiLater資本主義Local inflation was seen under economicization. Agricultural area and untapped area (Hokkaido)Industrial-Mining・Giant logistics facility (Port), rapid capital investment and rapid population increase (Urbanization) Occurred, and local inflation occurred due to the need for daily necessities. Therefore, the branch and branch office of the Bank of Japan were set up for the purpose of price stability. The location and timing of the BOJ's branch offices and branch offices are closely related to the concern about local inflation due to economic activity in the region.[Source required].

Breakeven inflation rate

Breakeven inflation rate(Break-even inflation rate) is how much inflation is generally expected to rise in the futureInflation expectations(Inflationary expectations) is a typical indicator to measure[38].. JGB andInflation-linked bondsIs the quantification of the difference in yields from (yield of government bonds-yield of inflation-linked government bonds). It represents the expected inflation rate estimated by the market. If this value is positive, the market expects inflation, and if it is negative, the market expects deflation.[39][40].

EconomistNorihisa Iwata"The expected inflation rate isGovernment bondYou can almost tell by the yield difference with[41].

Yasushi Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research point out that the expected inflation rate will affect the most recent price index as the maturity shortens, so it will be useful for forecasting prices in the near future.[42].

If there are no specially designed financial assets such as inflation-linked bonds, we cannot directly observe the expected inflation rate.[43].

footnote

  1. ^ "Meaning of inflation". 2012/4/26Browse.
  2. ^ What is the purpose of the Bank of Japan? : Bank of Japan Bank of Japan
  3. ^ Shuichi Uemura, Wataru Suzuki, Ken Chikada "Asset price and monetary policy management'' Bank of Japan July 1997
  4. ^ Nihon Keizai Shimbun, "Giants of Economics Fighting the Crisis-The Wisdom of Predecessors that Masters Read" Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Nikkei Business Bunko, 2012, p. 34.
  5. ^ Takaaki Mitsuhashi "The greatness of the Japanese economy that even high school students can understand! ] Saitosha, 2009, p. 66.
  6. ^ Takaaki Mitsuhashi "The greatness of the Japanese economy that even high school students can understand! ] Saitosha, 2009, p. 65.
  7. ^ Sanwa Research Institute, "The Japanese Economy in 30 Words", Nikkei Business Newspaper, Nikkei Business Bunko, 2000, p.258.
  8. ^ a b c Politics/Society [How to solve Japan] Read the true intention of the Vice President of the Bank of Japan IwataZAKZAK December 2014, 5
  9. ^ Morinaga Takuro, "Economics for "Don't be fooled!" How to read the backside of Moritaku-style economic news," PHP Research Institute <PHP Business New Book>, 2008, page 96.
  10. ^ [1][2]
  11. ^ "About the problem of budget deficit"[3] P.2, "Deflation, NPL Problems and Monetary Policy" Mitsuhiro Fukao (Ministry of Finance, Research Institute for Financial Policy 2002.8)[4] P.40
  12. ^ Cinii Literature Information[5]
  13. ^ Kenichi Yoshida, "Purchasing Power Parity Theory of "Nominal" Fluctuations in Foreign Exchange Rate: Reexamination of "Duality of Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuation""Research on Economics" Vol. 46, No. 1, p.53-68 1996, Faculty of Economics, Hokkaido University, ISSN 0451-6265.
  14. ^ Kenichi Yoshida, "The Historical Significance of the Lifting of Gold (5-6): Junnosuke Inoue's Austerity Policy"Research on Economics" Vol. 38, No. 3, p.47-78 1988, Faculty of Economics, Hokkaido University,ISSN 0451-6265.
  15. ^ Masaya Fujisawa, "Inflation Monetary Factor: Harrod's Theory of Anti-Inflation"Commercial Studies" Vol. 10, No. 3, p.1-30 1960, Otaru University of Commerce,ISSN 04748638.
  16. ^ a b Stephen Randsburg, "Lunchtime Economics-Unraveling the Mysteries of Daily Life," Nikkei Business Journal, 2004, 113 pages.
  17. ^ Interview with Koichi Hamada, Chief Cabinet SecretaryAbenomicsGreat Change in Monetary Policy Brought by Japan to Regain the Japanese Economy with Inflation Targets and BOJ Amendments” Diamond Online 20131/20
  18. ^ “Governor Shirakawa was honest, but suffered the people.” Koichi Hamada Exclusive Interview with Professor Emeritus, Yale University Toyo Keizai Online 20132/8
  19. ^ Shoot Yoichi Takahashi's popular theory! Current inflation is the effect of monetary policy Concerns about the impact of the consumption tax hike approaching the 1997 modelDiamond Online August 2014, 5
  20. ^ Stephen Randsburg, "Lunchtime Economics-Unraveling the Mysteries of Daily Life," Nikkei Business Journal, 2004, 330 pages.
  21. ^ Stephen Randsburg, "Lunchtime Economics-Unraveling the Mysteries of Daily Life," Nikkei Business Journal, 2004, 331 pages.
  22. ^ a b Large-scale tax hike will reduce consumer spending-total demand stabilization policy should be thoroughly enforced / Naoki Murakami / EconomistSYNODOS-Synodos-August 2014, 8
  23. ^ Yasushi Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research "Introduction to Japanese Economy for New Adults" Mainichi Shimbun <Mainichi Business Books>, 2009, p. 126.
  24. ^ Yasushi Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research "Introduction to Japanese Economy for New Adults" Mainichi Shimbun <Mainichi Business Books>, 2009, p. 134.
  25. ^ Economist Mitsuharu Ito "Because of listening, Prime Minister Abe lie"Daily Gendai August 2014, 8
  26. ^ Stephen Randsburg, "Lunchtime Economics-Unraveling the Mysteries of Daily Life," Nikkei Business Journal, 2004, 114 pages.
  27. ^ Norihisa Iwata, “What's happening in the Japanese economy,” Toyo Keizai, Inc., 2005, p. 40.
  28. ^ Norihisa Iwata "What's the Business?" Chikuma Shobo <Chikuma Primer Shinsho>, 2008, p.153.
  29. ^ Norihisa Iwata "Recommendations for Economic Thinking" Chikuma Shobo, 2011, p.168.
  30. ^ Yoichi Takahashi, "Books that Solve Large Japanese Problems in Interestingly, Thinking Simple and Logically" Kobunsha <Koubunsha Shinsho>, 2010, page 55.
  31. ^ Heizo Takenaka: Professor Takenaka, what is the economy? ”Knowledge Fore, 2008, p. 76.
  32. ^ Heizo Takenaka, Tomorrow's Economics, Gentosha, 2003, p. 81.
  33. ^ New BOJ President returns to zero interest rate PHP Business Online 20085/8
  34. ^ Special contribution by Professor Joseph Stiglitz "Don't repeat the same mistake anymore! Hard lessons learned in 2009" Diamond Online 20101/5
  35. ^ No growth without strong yen PHP Business Online Public knowledge 20089/16
  36. ^ a b Roger Dobson (January 2002, 1). “How Alexander caused a great Babylon inflation”. Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/how-alexander-caused-a-great-babylon-inflation-9213402.html 2019/3/28Browse. 
  37. ^ *Ryoji Motomura, "How to Read "Roman History" as Culture"PHP Institute, 2018. p300
  38. ^ [Economic English Learned from WSJ] 76th Breakeven Inflation Rate WSJ.com April 2013, 4
  39. ^ Mizuho Investment Trust Investment Advisor Break Even Inflation Rate
  40. ^ Changes in Japan Mutual Securities BEI
  41. ^ Interview with Mr. Norihisa Iwata, who wrote "Simultaneous recession" Toyo Keizai Online August 2009, 4
  42. ^ Yasushi Harada and Daiwa Institute of Research "Introduction to Japanese Economy for New Adults" Mainichi Shimbun <Mainichi Business Books>, 2009, p. 61.
  43. ^ Norihisa Iwata, "Research on the Showa Depression," Toyo Keizai, Inc., 2004, p.

References

  • Hideki Takayasu, Takayuki Mizuno, Misako Takayasu, "Mathematics of Hyperinflation" "Mathematical Science",Science company, NO.465 MARCH 2002 pp.78-83,NOT 40002001779
  • T. Mizuno, M.Takayasu and H.Takayasu, "The mechanism of double exponential growth in hyper-inflation" Physica A 308,1-4,411-419 (2002)
  • Inflation rates around the world

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