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🌏 | China's economic activity will recover to reasonable levels next year = Prime Minister Lee


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China's economic activity recovers to reasonable levels next year = Prime Minister Lee

 
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In a statement released by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs before the meeting, Prime Minister Lee said that he would maintain a continuous and stable macroeconomic policy, implement many reform measures, and promote the return of economic activity to a reasonable range.
 

[Beijing, XNUMXth Reuters] -China's Prime Minister Li Keqiang said on the XNUMXth that domestic economic activity will recover to a reasonable level next year ... → Continue reading

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Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics(Macro economy,British: macroeconomics) IsEconomicsIt deals with the entire national economy, which is a compilation of individual economic activities.MacroeconomicsOrMacroscopic economicsAlso translated as.

Focusing on the determination and fluctuation of macroeconomic variables,National income-Unemployment rate-inflation-investment-TradeThere is a total amount such as income and expenditure.Also subject to macroeconomic analysisMarketIt is,Product(Goods-Service)market,currency(capital-Bond)market,The laborDivided into markets.The opposite language matters the individual actors that make up the economy.Microeconomics.

Norwegian economists first devised the dichotomy between macroeconomics and microeconomics.Ragnar Frisch.. Dutch economists first used the terms "microeconomics" and "macroeconomics"Wolf[1]..The birth of macroeconomics was in 1936John Maynard Keynes(Keynesian economics)'S book "General theory of employment, interest and money』Starts with[2]..In university education, the basic contents of microeconomics and macroeconomics are first learned.

Overview

Classicism

According to the neoclassical school, the natural rate of interest is determined in the capital market.Production isSay's LawByWalrasbalancedHas been believed to be at a natural level to be achieved, but in the 1930s米 国StruckpanicCreates skepticism about this view.

Keynes and Kalecki

In the midst of this skepticism, John Maynard Canes published "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" in 1936.KeynesLiquidity preferenceとMoney supplyBy realityInterest rateWas decided.For the future不 確 実 性Determined from the expected rate of profit (marginal efficiency of capital) and interest rate derived from long-term expectations withinvestmentとsavings OfbalancedDetermines the actual production level (gross national product, national income).Keynes rejected the classical claim that imbalances derive from price rigidity and theirSay's LawDeniedPrinciple of effective demandTo bridge the gap between the natural production level and the actual production level based onEffective demandHe appealed for the need for policy.It is said that this claim overturns the neoclassical economic system that had been established by accepting Say's law until then.Keynesian RevolutionHappens.

Michał KaleckiIs homeland earlier than KeynesポーランドHe came up with the same idea as Keynes and wrote a Polish research treatise (1933, 1935), but thesePolishとFrenchAlready published because it was published onlyEnglishAt that time, few people at the economic society, which was the mainstream, realized the revolutionary value of this research treatise, and the 1935 article was Flysch.Jan TimbergenlikeStockholm SchoolWas evaluated.Later, when Keynes's above book was published in 1936, he published a new treatise (1936) in the form of commentary on it, and the various concepts that Keynes presented had already been published several years ago. It points out that it is the same as.

Neoclassical synthesis

after thatPaul Samuelson,John HicksBy Keynesian interpretation of the United StatesNeoclassical synthesisWas established, and Keynes's model came to be understood as a special case of the classical general equilibrium model in the short term when prices were rigid (although this American Keynesian interpretation is based on the system of general theory and the amount of employment Some Post-Keynesians, who saw it as a system of long-term imbalances constrained by people's expectations, have also been evaluated as profane Keynesian).

In principle in the following descriptionKeynesian Economics = American Keynesian Theoretical SystemIt is assumed that it means.

New classical

However, in the 1970s, the United States, etc.Industrialized countries StagflationKeynes criticism occurs when he begins to suffer from.The neoclassical reinstatement brings attention to the idea of ​​a new classical school.

New classicalOne of the other factors that is emerging isKeynesian economicsIs required to have been thought to have a methodological problem.A major feature of Keynesian economics is that macroeconomic variables such as total consumption are determined by a mechanism that is completely different from the optimization behavior of each economic agent envisioned in microeconomics.This divergence between the rational behavior of each economic agent and the determination of macroeconomic variables as a whole can be a problem when considering the suitability of macroeconomic models to reality.For example, Keynesian economics tends to treat variables that are originally determined endogenously by changes in the economic environment as parameters that are given exogenously and cannot be explained by the model.An example is shown below.

The rate of change in consumption with respect to income changes is called the marginal propensity to consume. In Keynesian economics, the marginal propensity to consume is a certain parameter defined by the current consumption / savings determination behavior.By the way, if a household is rational and optimizes over time, it will make different consumption decisions depending on whether the change in income is temporary or permanent.In other words, if we predict that income changes will be temporary and will return to their original levels in the next fiscal year, we will increase savings for future consumption without increasing consumption much at this time.Conversely, if we predict that income changes will be permanent, we should direct all income increments to current consumption.As a result, if households are rational, marginal propensity to consume is an endogenous variable, not an exogenous parameter, that changes with predictions about the nature of income change.An economic entity that seeks rational and timely optimization in this way makes predictions for the future and determines optimal actions based on it.In Kaines economicsExpectationIs not possible to weave in, so it is evaluated that endogenous variables are mistakenly treated as exogenous parameters.[3].

In addition, Keynesian economics failed to factor in the expectations of economic agents, so macrosEconomic policyThere was also a problem with the evaluation method of.In other words, since the behavior of economic agents has been estimated using past data and the policies to be adopted in the future have been evaluated based on the estimation, it is not possible to incorporate changes in the behavior of economic agents in response to policy changes, making appropriate evaluation difficult. It was.Robert LucasCriticized that traditional macroeconomics did not consider the expectations of agents, and pointed out that current policy changes could change the behavior of agents as they affect their expectations of the future.Lucas criticized traditional Keynesian economics methodologies and emphasized the role played by the expectations of economic agents, but this criticism is associated with him.Lucas critiqueIt is called.

Lucas et al. Not only criticized traditional Keynesian economics, but also played a major role in building macroeconomics with microfoundations.The new macroeconomics established by Lucas et al. Is what is called the new classical macroeconomics.Ecologists, who are positioned in the new classical trend, have aggregated the behavior of these economic actors using a model that is strictly based on rational economic entity optimization behavior in order to explicitly handle people's expectations. I tried to analyze the macro economy as a thing.The typical exampleRepresentative individualIt is a model.By the way, the rational economic entity optimization behavior behind the model is what microeconomics envisions.Therefore, the new classical macroeconomics is said to have a microfoundation.He also emphasized the hypothesis that economic agents act with predictions that are consistent with the economic structure, so the early new classical school is sometimes called the rational expectation school.

In addition, the new classical schoolEconometricsEmphasis is placed on the method of empirically verifying the model using.They were accompanied by intertemporal optimization of consumption (Ramsey・ Short-term based on the model)Business cycleAs a model to explainReal business cycle modelAt the same time, we introduced a calibration that compares the predicted values ​​derived from the model with the actual data.

New Keynesian

On the other hand, on the Keynesian economics side, there was a movement corresponding to the new classical school.New KeynesianMacroeconomics has embraced the micro-preconditions of the new classical school and has built new models to give Keynesian economics a micro-foundation.Along with that, we also accepted the rational expectation hypothesis in order to assume rationality in the sense of optimizing over time.New Keynesian, like the new classicals, emphasizes the role of economic agents' expectations.Nominal on itPriceThe model incorporates elements that characterize the American Keynesian, such as the stickiness of.

As an exampleSearch theoryThere is a modeling that applies.Search theory is a model of the behavior of a seller and a buyer looking for a trading partner, and if they can find a trading partner successfully, they make a direct bilateral transaction.If you turn it over, the transaction will not be completed unless you find a trading partner.In search theory, sellers and buyers come together to trade on the price signal.WalrasIt models a trading environment that is completely different from the typical market environment.This is because in a Walras-like market, economic agents only come into contact through price.Multiple different yields in this modelbalancedAppears.A high-yield equilibrium corresponds to a boom, and a low-yield equilibrium corresponds to a recession.Which equilibrium will be achieved depends on the expectations of economic agents regarding the outlook for search activity.That is, a balance of high output is realized if the possibility of closing a transaction is predicted, and a balance of low output is realized if the possibility of closing is low.

In this way, New Keynesian has something in common with the new classical school in that it emphasizes the expectations of economic agents while modeling a different trading environment from the Walras market, unlike the new classical school.

Attempt to fuse the two

Recent developments in macroeconomics have brought a new dimension to macroeconomics.Two previously considered incompatible schools, the Classical School and the Keynesian School, are finding a common ground, at least between the New Classical School and the New Keynesian School, as mentioned above.The two sides agree that macroeconomics requires a micro-foundation and that the expectations of economic agents play a major role.

In addition, New Keynesian is the optimal growth model used by new classicals in recent years.Real business cycle theoryStarting from, we are trying to give Keynesian economics a micro-foundation by adding some assumptions to them.Various models based on the real business cycle model (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE) Model, but the new classical and New Keynesian also have in common that they use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.

Even on the side of the new classical school, it is like the traditional Walras.Perfect competitionThere is a movement to loosen market assumptions.Some of them when building a modelExternalityAnd incomplete information, and evenEconomy of scale,Exclusive competitionSome people take in.The typical example is.Thus, the new classical and New Keynesian have very similar theory constructions.Such trends are evaluated as moving toward building a framework for unified analysis of macroeconomic phenomena such as short-term business cycles and long-term economic growth.

However, for the new macroeconomics that emphasizes these microfoundations, Keynes inherited the classical dichotomy of Keynesian, which is in opposition to the classical school that accepts Say's law.Post KeynesianThere are sharp criticisms from people of the school called.However, under the circumstances where the new classical and New Keynesian, which are also mainstream in number, are close in accepting micro-preconditions, the dichotomy of classical and Keynesian is at least recent macroeconomics. It is evaluated that it does not have as much meaning as before in grasping the trend of.Similarly, most of the macroeconomic models currently in use have a microeconomic basis, making it difficult to make a strict methodological distinction between microeconomics and macroeconomics. ..

school

Popular ageschoolFeaturesscholar
18CClassicismSay's lawSupply creates demand by price elastic marketDavid Ricardo,Adam Smith,John Stuart Mill
19CNeoclassicalFull employment is always established in Walras equilibrium achieved by price adjustmentLeon Walras,Wilfred Pareto
1930sKeynesとKaleckiEffective demandPrice-rigid market where demand creates supply by principleJohn Maynard Keynes,Michał Kalecki
1930-1940sKane Zianism
(Neo Kane Theanism)
Attempt to comparative static formulation of Keynesian theoryJohn Hicks,Paul Samuelson
1970sSupply ciderCriticism of Keynesian demand-creating fiscal policy by Say's lawRobert Mandel
1970sMonetaristKeynesian monetary policy is long-term invalid due to classical dichotomyMilton Friedman
1970sFully foreseen Keynesian monetary policy is short-term and long-term invalidRobert Lucas
1970sPost-canineism
(The name is from 1975)
The essence of Keynesian theory is dynamic imbalance
Attempt of dynamic formulation focusing on the irrationality of "long-term expectations" as the factor
(Conflict with rational expectations school)
In a broad senseMichał Kalecki,Joan Robinson,Clown sluffer,Hyman Minsky,
Paul Davidson,Nicholas Kaldor,Hirofumi Uzawaな ど
1990sNew classical
(New Classicism)
There is no price rigidity and Walras equilibrium is always establishedEdward Prescott
1990sNew Cane The AnismMicrofoundations for price rigidityGregory Mancu,Joseph Stiglitz

Comparison

The Keynesian Revolution created two major disruptions to macroeconomic views.The following is a summary of the important differences between the traditional and neoclassical economic views and the Keynesian economic view.

Real economic viewClassical / NeoclassicalKeynes
生産Natural rate production levelReal production level
  • Existence of GDP Gap
unemploymentFull employment (natural rate of unemployment)Underemployment unemployment rate
currencyNo effect on real variables due to price elasticity
⇔ Classical dichotomy / quantity theory of money
Affects real variables due to price rigidity
interestCapital market (investment, savings, supply and demand)
⇒ Natural rate of interest
Money market (money supply and demand) ⇔ Liquidity preference theory
⇒ Real interest rate
needUtility maximization solution under Walras's law (budget constraint)
Simultaneous solution of product market system and money market system
SupplyProfit maximization and cost minimization solutions
Models on the labor market

The table below shows the views of each theory on macroeconomic policy.This table is quoted from page 503 of "Krugman Macroeconomics".

ClassicismKeynesmonetarismModern macroeconomics
Is Expanded Monetary Policy Effective in Overcoming the Depression?×Almost ×[4]○Special situation (Liquidity trap) Except ○
Is Fiscal Policy Effective in Overcoming the Depression?×○×○
Are monetary or fiscal policies effective in reducing long-term unemployment?×○××
Should Fiscal Policy Operate Discretionarily?×○×Except for special circumstances ×
Should monetary policy be managed discretionarily?×○×In dispute

Keynesian analysis

National accounts
Keynes emphasized the connections between macro variables to facilitate analysis.
National income The It is represented by the national income identity.
The above formula is from left to rightincome,消费,investment(Including inventory investment), government spending, and net exports (exports minus imports).
It is assumed that national income in terms of income, production, and distribution is the same.Three-sided equivalentIs established.
Regarding consumption and investment among macro variablesConsumption function,Investment functionThere are various discussions about.
General equilibrium analysis under a closed economy
IS-LM modelからDemand functionIs guided.
Labor marketThe supply function is derived from the analysis.There are models such as a worker error model, an incomplete information model, and a rigid wage model, and the supply function based on the incomplete information model advocated by Lucas is called the Lucas-type supply function.
IS-LM analysis is often regarded as short-term, and aggregate demand and supply (AD-AS) analysis is often regarded as long-term.This implication is that while the Keynesian view of the economy is effective in the short term, the shock on the demand side is not predictable by the total supply and demand analysis that also considers the supply side.
General equilibrium analysis under an open economy
A general equilibrium analysis under an open economy is called an international macroeconomic analysis.
A simple policy analysis can be made by IS-LM analysis under a small country open economy, which makes a simple assumption that the interest rate is fixed at the world interest rate, which is called the Mundell-Fleming model. IS-LM analysis has been applied in various ways to the open economy, such as the IS-LM-BP analysis, which adds a current balance curve.
The asset approach in exchange rate decision theory is Keynesian analysis.
Economic growth theory
Under KeynesHarrod,DormerThe growth theory advocated by Keynesian is Keynesian's theory of economic growth.
Taking over the trend of Keynesian economics that emphasizes market imperfections, he insists on the knife edge theorem that when the actual growth rate deviates from the guaranteed growth rate, the dissociation diverges.

Non-Keynesian analysis

General equilibrium analysis under a closed economy
Neoclassical
Marshall's demand function is derived from the consumer utility maximization problem, and Hicks' compensation demand function is derived from the spending minimization problem.The sum of these individual consumer demand functions is the aggregate demand function.
The supply function is derived from the problem of maximizing the profit of a company.The sum of the supply functions of these individual firms is the aggregate supply function.Demand shock does not make sense because the supply function is vertical in the long run.
New classical
General equilibrium macrodynamic modelCarriage is performed by a Ramsey model called.This gives the Thoreau model a microfoundation such as the consumption function derived from the utility maximization problem.
General equilibrium analysis under an open economy
Purchasing power parity theory, that is, the monetary approach, is a classical analysis in the theory of exchange rate determination.
Economic growth theory
Called the Thoreau modelThoreauThe neoclassical growth theory advocated by is a popular theory.This incorporates the concept of production function and difference into the national income identity.

footnote

  1. ^ Staygritz (1999) "Introduction to Economics" Toyo Keizai[Page number required]
  2. ^ Norihisa Iwata "Learning Economics" Chikuma Shobo <Chikuma Shinsho>, 1994, p. 171.
  3. ^ Keynes himself, in that general theory,消费He has covered a wide range of factors that affect consumption, and he knew that changes in expectations about current and future income level movements would affect consumption, but the short-term effects are secondary. I thought I had only sex
  4. ^ It means "only with expansionary monetary policy ...".

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