Photo Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare Tamura greets at a meeting of an expert organization that advises on measures against new coronavirus infections.On the left is Takaji Wakita, Director of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases = 6th morning, Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
Infected people meet 1 times in a month Corona expert organization
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The government is considering issuing a state of emergency for about one month from the 7th, but Hiroshi Nishiura, a professor at Kyoto University, estimates that it will take about two months for the number of newly infected people in Tokyo to decrease to 1 or less. Was summarized.
An expert organization that advises the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on measures against coronavirus infections met on the 6th to analyze the domestic situation. ... → Continue reading
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Hiroshi Nishiura(Hiroshi Nishiura,1977 -) is JapaneseDoctor,Medical doctor,Health scientist(Theoretical epidemiology-Medical management-Hygiene).Kyoto Universitygraduate SchoolGraduate School of Medicine, Department of Social Health Medicine教授.Bachelor of Science TheDoctor of Health Science(Hiroshima Universitygraduate School-2006).New corona infectionAfter the meeting of countermeasure experts, he was called "8% uncle".
Tokyo Metropolitan Ebara HospitalInternal medicine-Department of Infectious DiseasesClinical residentThroughEverhard Karl University TubingenMedical Metrology Institute Researcher,Nagasaki University Institute of Tropical Medicine Specially Appointed Associate Professor,Utrecht University doctor student,Hong Kong universityPublic health graduate school assistant professor,Tokyo Universitygraduate SchoolGraduate School of Medicine Associate professor,Hokkaido Universitygraduate SchoolInstitute of Medicine 教授Etc.
1977,OsakaBorn in Hyogo prefectureKobe CityI grew up in.From an early ageRobot contest,Solar carI was interested in the development of.for that reason,Kobe City College of TechnologyGo on to,Department of Electrical EngineeringLearned at.
But,Hyogoken Nanbu EarthquakeCaused byGreat Hanshin-Awaji EarthquakeSuffering from,VictimTo rescueAMR OfDoctorI was touched by the appearance ofMedical scienceAspire to the way of.1996(Heisei8 years) August,Miyazaki Medical UniversityGo on to[Note 1],Faculty of medicine OfDepartment of medicineLearned at..As a student internDeveloping countryAtmeaslesとPolioWhen I participated in the vaccination measures ofMedical doctor OfRoy Anderson"Infectious Diseases of Humans --dynamics and control"Introduced and impressed.. Graduated from Miyazaki Medical University in March 2002[Note 1]. Since October 20022003(15) Until MarchTokyo Metropolitan Ebara HospitalAtInternal medicine,Department of Infectious Diseases OfClinical residentAsPart-time jobWorked at[Note 2].
after that,ThailandFrom April 2003 to October of the same yearMahidol University OfTropical Medical SchoolLearned at graduate school.. April 2004,Hiroshima UniversityGo to graduate school,Graduate School of Health SciencesLearned at.graduate studentAs "Mathematical and statistical epidemiology of emerging / re-emerging infectious diseases with particular emphasis on inference of key parameters"TitledDissertationWrote.In the meantime, from April 2004 (Heisei 16) to March 4 (Heisei 2005),The United Kingdom OfImperial College LondonAt the School of MedicineVisiting ResearcherServed asReceived direct guidance from once impressed Roy Andersson,Infectious disease epidemiologyWas studying about.2006Completed the doctoral program at the graduate school of Hiroshima University in March 18,Ph.D. (Health Science)Bachelor's degree.
As a medical scientist and a health scholar
From April 2005, when I was still a graduate studentGermany OfEverhard Karl University TubingenI was a researcher at the Institute of Medical Quantitative Biology, and worked until August 2007...Meanwhile, from April 2006 (Heisei 18) to August 4 (Heisei 2007)Nagasaki University Institute of Tropical MedicineAtSpecially Appointed Associate ProfessorAlso served as.. From May 2007 (Heisei 19) Netherlands OfUtrecht UniversityAtdoctor studentAnd,Theoretical epidemiologyStudied..After that, he became a PRESTO chief researcher., Enrolled at Utrecht University until March 2011.. April 2011,Hong Kong SAR OfHong Kong universityUntil April 2013 (Heisei 25)assistant professorServed as.
In June 2013, he moved to the University of Tokyo and became a graduate student.Graduate School of MedicineBecame an associate professor and took charge of the international social medicine course.. Enrolled at the University of Tokyo until March 2016, From the following month, I changed to Hokkaido University and went to graduate schoolInstitute of MedicineBecame a professor in the field of social medicine.
New corona measures
Mathematical model of infectious diseases
2019から2020OverEpidemic of new coronavirus infectionAt that time, we worked on epidemiological research to clarify the characteristics of virus epidemics using a "mathematical model" simulated by a computer, and from the end of January 2020, published papers one after another with collaborators, responding to press conferences and media coverage. And provided information to prevent the spread of infection.
XNUM X Month X NUM X Day,Ministry of Health, Labor and WelfareFor the new coronavirus cluster countermeasure team,New Coronavirus Infectious Diseases Control Experts Meeting OfHitoshi OshiyaParticipated with.
On February 2, in a discussion with Oshiya, he shared the view that if we find and categorize common terms in clusters, we should be able to call for more effective behavior change.And it turned out that the people who infected many people were in a "sealed" environment, the people were "crowded" in an environment where patient accumulation occurred, and the utterances were made in a "close" relationship. Because there is, later "Three denseIdentified a condition called "(3 Cs)".
Declaration of emergency in Hokkaido
By February 2, there were very widespread reports of sporadic cases with unknown links to clusters as sources of infection, not only in Sapporo, but throughout Hokkaido.Since it was thought that there was a large cluster or its chain in the Sapporo metropolitan area, Oshitani and the government expert meetingSuzuki SuzukiAnd argued that there was a possibility of a serious situation, on February 2Naoichi SuzukiProposed to the Governor of Hokkaido, and at the Governor's discretion, the "New Coronavirus Emergency Declaration" was announced..
Nishiura, who participated in the press conference of the government's expert meeting on March 3, when the declaration was completed, said, "I am very sorry for the inconvenience caused to the people of Hokkaido who refrained from doing so. I am grateful that the Hokkaido model has succeeded because of the efforts of the local medical staff and the community health staff without sleeping. Of course, the secondary infection is still centered around Sapporo. Since the propagation chain is not broken, it is a situation that is completely unpredictable, but it can be seen that the number of effective reproductions has clearly decreased after issuing the emergency declaration. " Ta.
Advocated from the beginning of March that it is necessary to reduce contact with people by 8% to prevent the spread of the epidemic.,インターネットI came to call myself "8% uncle" above..The godfather is Oshiya..Science magazine "ScienceWas introduced as "80% uncle" in a news article posted on the website..
There was a conflict over the rate of contact reduction.In particular, on April 4, we received an inquiry as to whether the requirements for emergencies such as pandemic influenza were met, and the second meeting.Basic Counseling Policy Advisory Committee[Note 3]Was held, but in the early morning of the day of deliberation, Nishiura was the chairman'sShigeru OmiOshitani, a member of the committee, contacted him by phone and said, "I don't know how hard I can do, but I'll do my best to make my uncle 8%' wish come true."In addition, Nishiura et al.Basic reproduction numberThe material was created on the premise that "2.5" was set, but the value was rewritten to "2.0" in the material submitted to the deliberation site.Omi, who was skeptical about the value of the submitted material, called Nishiura to confirm, "Is this okay?", And it was discovered that the value of the material was rewritten without permission from Nishiura...The same night,Shinzo AbePrime MinisterAt a press conference after the state of emergency was issued, "Experts estimate that if all of us can make efforts and reduce the chances of contact between people by at least XNUMX% and as much as XNUMX%, two weeks later. Can peak out the increase in infected people and turn it down. ".
At the press conference on April 4, if no measures were taken, about 15 people in Japan would be critically ill patients requiring treatment in a ventilator or intensive care unit, and 85% of the critically ill patients. Based on data from China that allegedly died, it was announced that about 49 of them would die, and if the contact between people was reduced by 42%, the epidemic could be suppressed in about one month.. However,Yoshii KanChief Cabinet SecretarySaid on the 16th, Nishiura's estimate was "not the official view of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.".
Newsweek Japan EditionSpecially contributed "Mathematical model of" 6% uncle "and its basis" to the June 9 issue, which was later published on the same website version.. Also,Central public opinionIn an interview article in the July issue, "From around March 7, when the Olympic Games were postponed,Yuriko KoikeThe Governor of Tokyo will take steps such as requesting refraining from events, and the number of effective reproductions will decrease accordingly.Furthermore, after the state of emergency was declared, it was clear that everyone, both in cities and rural areas, cooperated in reducing contact. ".
Professor Nakazawa Port of Kobe University, a human ecologist, highly evaluated the rationality of the 8% reduction while touching on Nishiura's theoretical background..
physicist OfTakashi NakanoOsaka University Nuclear Physics Research CenterWith the chiefVirologyPerson ofTakayuki MiyazawaInstitute for Frontier Life and Medical Sciences, Kyoto UniversityAssociate Professor is the 6nd Osaka Prefecture New Coronavirus Countermeasures Headquarters Expert Meeting on June 12th.He attended as an observer and pointed out that the peak of infection in the prefecture was around March 3, and the effect of the request for leave due to the state of emergency issued on April 28 was weak.On the other hand, as the chair of the meetingInfection controlKazunori Asano, a professor at the Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, disagreed, saying, "I don't want you to conclude that it was meaningless to refrain from taking a leave of absence just from today's discussion.".
Former Governor of Niigata Prefecture who is also a doctorMt. Yoneyama RyuichiSaid Nishiura's logic, "It's too late (although there is no chance of winning), so we have to take action now."Nishiura is likened to the former Japanese army as "Reiwa'sMutiankou LianyaRepeatedly and severely criticized.
Social engineerSatoshi FujiiA professor at the Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University quoted a graph created by Nishiura and insisted that Nishiura and Omi's support for "extending an emergency in the GW" was a "major sin."..On the other hand, infectious disease specialistsKentaro IwataProfessor of Infection Treatment, Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe University announced "Opinions on Mr. Satoshi Fujii's Public Questionnaire", saying that Nishiura's contribution to infection control in Japan is enormous, and Fujii's discussion. Pointed out the mistake of..In response to this point, Fujii argued that Iwata's point was based on a misunderstanding of his own claim, and the effect of the state of emergency was small, but rather the immigration restrictions (so-called "waterfront measures") that preceded it. He asserted that he played a major role in stopping the spread of infection, and reiterated his doubts about uniform self-restraint measures..
Some of the criticisms directed at Nishiura have overheated, and Nishiura has received a letter saying "I'll cut my neck.", "There was a threat and I was protected by the public security (police)," he said..
Over the two-week see-off request for leave
When issuing a state of emergencyYasutoshi NishimuraThe Minister of State for Special Missions for the New Corona has demanded that the seven prefectural governors postpone the request for leave for two weeks.on the other hand,Tokyo Metropolitan GovernmentIs about to issue a leave request, and the country and the capital are in conflict. April 4thjournalist OfShiro TazakiIs "Shinichi Hatori Morning Show』, And prefaced that he heard Nishimura on the phone, and insisted that Nishimura only told the prefectures the opinion of the expert," If you stop for two weeks, it may be effective. "Furthermore, when it came to the topic of who the expert was, Tasaki said, "That's what Mr. Nishiura said," "Data, did you release it last Friday? According to his prediction." Nishiura argued that he tried to postpone the leave request for two weeks..
Nishiura, who was informed of this report, argued that he had not made such a proposal, and commented, "I doubted the news that I would wait two weeks for leave compensation."In addition, Nishiura repeatedly argued that Tasaki was named, "Mr. Tazaki's source is government ◯. Plump. I have to take a leave of absence with compensation now."..In addition, Nishiura commented on Tasaki's remark, "The lie of the Tasaki-Nishimura line that Nishiura said,'After seeing the situation for two weeks, compensation for leave of absence.'"Criticizes that.
Calculation method and data of effective reproduction number
At a press conference after the government's expert meeting on May 5, Nishiura was asked by a reporter to disclose the basis of the effective reproduction number in detail. "I would like you to disclose the calculation method and data as much as possible in this matter. At this point, the researchers in the cluster countermeasures group are also operating bicycles and are now responding to analysis day and night, and are full of hands by responding to policy decisions. So, as soon as possible, I'm thinking about how to do it, or how to convey it, so that the calculation method can be communicated to reporters in a way that includes other experts. I hope to announce it at a later date, but please understand that at this point, decision-making is our top priority. ".
On May 5, "[Ask Professor Nishiura, Uncle 12%] All Online Lectures on the Number of Effective Reproductions of the New Corona" sponsored by the Japan Science and Technology Journalists Conference was delivered on Nico Nico Video, and Nishiura who appeared was effective reproduction. Explained the meaning of numbers (Rt), mathematical models, how to collect data, and calculation methods...At the same time, explanatory materials, codes and data were released... On May 5, the answers to the 18 questions asked on the day of the lecture were released..
XNUM X Month X NUM X Day,Oriental economyOnline, under the supervision of Nishiura, released the effective reproduction number (simplified version) by nationwide and prefecture, which is updated daily in principle..
At a press conference on May 5, when the state of emergency was lifted nationwide, Prime Minister Abe said, "How to partially and gradually resume international traffic in a way that is compatible with preventing the spread of infection again. We will carefully consider whether it can be done, including the target country, target people, and procedures, and then the government will make a comprehensive decision at an appropriate time. Of course, the first is the health and life of the people. I want to give top priority to this. ".
In a proposal issued on May 5, the government's expert meeting said that the spread of infection in March was triggered by the return of infected people in Europe and other countries to Japan. He pointed out that it became clear in the above, and by resuming the exchange of people with foreign countries in the future, there is a possibility that the infection will spread again in Japan, so "Sufficient discussion within the government department in considering future measures for border measures. While assessing the epidemic situation of each country and the trend of international efforts to normalize the traffic of people across countries, opening the country as an exit strategy, preventing the spread of infection, and when immigrants develop. It is necessary to clarify the burden on the corresponding medical institutions and the concept of immigration restrictions again due to the spread of the epidemic, and take measures. ”He added,“ A new lifestyle to prevent the spread of infection in Japan For the time being until it becomes established, it is appropriate to gradually aim for mitigation by limiting the number of immigrants to a certain number. " .
On June 6, Nishiura released the results of a simulation of the risks of easing immigration restrictions, and if 2 infected people per day come from countries where the infection is endemic,quarantineAtPCR testやホテルなどでの2週間の待機要請を行ったとしても、完全には防げず一部は流入し、3か月後には98.7％の確率で緊急事態宣言などが必要となる大規模な流行が起きる一方で、入国を厳しく制限するなどして、1日当たりに入国する感染者を2人にした場合は3か月後に大規模な流行が起きる確率は58.1％、1日当たり1人にした場合は35.3％にまで抑えることができるとした。西浦は「制限の緩和については政府が判断をしているが、感染リスクをどこまで踏まえているのか、透明性をもって明確に語られていない状態だ」と指摘し、「検疫や入国制限は省庁の管轄がそれぞれ異なり、縦割りの状態にある。政府が一体となって、感染者が入国するリスクを分析し、制限を掛けたり緩和したりする仕組みを急いで作らなければならない」と述べた..At the same time, a commentary by Nishiura was also released..
Also participate in expert meetingsKoji WadaInternational University of Health and WelfareIn a conversation with a professor of public health at the School of Medicine, "Simulation suggestsMinistry of Foreign Affairs"InfectionDanger informationIt is dangerous if you do not impose immigration restrictions promptly when you reach the equivalent of "Level 3". ".
June 6th, governmentNew Coronavirus Infectious Disease Control HeadquartersDecided to allow business people in countries and regions where the infection situation is calm to enter the country on the condition that a negative PCR test is confirmed before visiting Japan..
- 1977 --Born in Osaka.
- 2002 --Graduated from Miyazaki University School of Medicine.
- 2002- Tokyo Metropolitan Ebara HospitalInternal Medicine / Infectious Diseases Clinical Resident.
- 2004 - Imperial College LondonFaculty of medicineVisiting Researcher.
- 2005 - Everhard Karl University TubingenResearcher, Institute of Medical Quantitative Biology.
- 2006 --Hiroshima University Graduate SchoolGraduate School of Health SciencesDoctoral course completion.
- 2006- Nagasaki University Institute of Tropical MedicineSpecially Appointed Associate Professor.
- 2007 --Utrecht Universitydoctor student.
- 2011 --University of Hong Kong School of Public Healthassistant professor.
- 2013 --The University of Tokyo Graduate SchoolGraduate School of MedicineAssociate professor.
- 2016 --Professor, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University.
- 2020 --August 8st ~Kyoto UniversityProfessor, Department of Social Health Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine.
- Hiroshi Nishiura "Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiological Studies on Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases: Focusing on Estimating Major Parameters" Doctoral Dissertation, Hiroshima University, Ko No. 3913, 2006, NOT 500000348757
- Hiroshi Nishiura, "Practical application of mathematical models of infectious diseases and new developments for utilization in industry and policy"Kyushu University Mass For Industry Research Institute,Year 2014
Contribution, shared writing, etc.
- Hiroshi Nishiura, Hisashi Inaba "Prediction of Infectious Disease Epidemics: Quantitative Challenges in Mathematical Models of Infectious Diseases"Statistical mathematics』Volume 54 No. 2 pp.461-480 Special Feature" Forecasting and Discovery ", 2006
- Hiroshi Nishiura "Chapter 2 Data Science of Mathematical Models of Infectious Diseases" edited by Hisashi Inaba "Mathematical Models of Infectious Diseases"Baifukan, 2008
- Hiroshi Nishiura "Development of a method for determining the quarantine period of infectious diseases and estimation of its epidemiological effect"Operations Research Society of JapanJapanese Journal, Vol. 52, pp.20-37, 2009
- Hiroshi Nishiura "Pandemic Eastern Observations from the Netherlands" "Mathematics seminar"Nippon Hyoronsha, April 2009-March 4 serialization
- Hiroshi Nishiura "Theoretical Epidemiological Analysis of the Effect of Border Quarantine (Border Countermeasures) for New Influenza" "科学"Iwanami Shoten, September 2009, Vol. 9, No. 79
- Hiroshi Nishiura "Vaccination and Herd Immunity: New Influenza Vaccination Strategy" "Science" Iwanami Shoten, November 2009, Vol. 11, No. 79 Special Feature "Ideal Form of Influenza Vaccine"
- Hiroshi Nishiura, Kazuyuki Aihara"New Influenza Prevention Strategy (1-3)" "Mathematics Seminar" Nihon Hyoronsha, February-April 2010 serialized
- Hiroshi Nishiura "Monosashi to Understand Depression" "Mathematics Seminar" Nihon Hyoronsha, April 2014-March 4 Bimonthly serialization
- Hiroshi Nishiura, Daishi Chino "Introduction to Mathematical Models for Infectious Diseases: Knowing the Power of Modeling"Kentaro IwataEditor-in-chief "J-IDEO"[Note 4]Chugai Medical Co., Ltd., Volume 3, Issue 5, September 2019.ISSN 24327077
- Tetsuro Kobayashi, Hiroshi Nishiura "Mathematical Science of the New Coronavirus" "Mathematics Seminar" Nihon Hyoronsha, May 2020
- Hiroshi Nishiura ""Mathematical model of "8% uncle" and its basis"Newsweek Japan Version" June 2020, 6 Special Feature "Verification Japanese Model"
- TBS Radio Kume Hiro It’s a radio"Mr. Hiroshi Nishiura, an infectious disease countermeasure with a mathematical model" broadcast on March 2019, 3
- NHKClose-up modern +"Can the new virus pneumonia be contained?" Broadcast on January 2020, 1
- NHK Close-up Gendai + "What is happening at the site of the new virus" brink "" broadcast on March 2020, 3
- NHK Special"Coronavirus on the brink-report from the front line to prevent the spread of infection-"2020 year 4 month 11 day broadcasting
- "1st Press Conference" held on April 2020, 4
- NHK Special "State of Emergency Declaration What's Happening Now"2020 year 4 month 18 day broadcasting
- "2st Press Conference" held on April 2020, 4
- NHK Special "New Coronavirus Declaration of Emergency-Medical and Economic Whereabouts-" Broadcast on April 2020, 4
- Nippon TVsystem"I can't learn from a textbook Japan's Super Difficulty ”broadcast on May 2020, 5
- NHK Special "New Coronavirus Exit Strategy" Broadcast on May 2020, 5
- "[Ask Professor Nishiura, Uncle 8%] All Online Lectures on the Effective Reproduction Number of New Corona" Broadcast on May 2020, 5, sponsored by the Japan Science and Technology Journalists Conference
- NHK Close-up Gendai + "Points of Interest Approaching Keyman-Beyond the Cancellation of the State of Emergency-" Broadcast on May 2020, 5
- NNN document(Sapporo TVProduction) "Called the 74th case, a warning bell from the origin of the new corona" Three Cs "" Broadcast on June 2020, 6
- NHK Special "Is the New Coronavirus Crisis Repeated? -The Whereabouts of the Pandemic-" Broadcast on June 2020, 6
- 84 timesJapanese Circulation SocietyAcademic meeting (JCS2020) commemorative talk (Shinya YamanakaKyoto University iPS Cell Research Institute(Chief / Professor) "Decision-making in the epidemic of the new coronavirus-what to think and how to judge under unprecedented circumstances-" Recorded on July 2020, 7
- Kansai Health and Medical Creation Conference Online Symposium "Current Situation and Countermeasures for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) -What We Have Learned and How to Prepare for the Second Wave-" Special Lecture "New Coronavirus Infectious Disease Epidemic Countermeasures ”held on July 2020, 7
- ^ a b Miyazaki Medical University was (old) in 2003 after graduating from Nishiura.Miyazaki UniversityIt was integrated with (currently) Miyazaki University School of Medicine.
- ^ Tokyo Metropolitan Ebara HospitalLater from TokyoTokyo Metropolitan Health and Medical CorporationTransferred toEbara HospitalIt became.
- ^ Basic Counseling Policy Advisory CommitteeIt is,Ministerial Meeting on Countermeasures against New Influenza, etc. OfNew influenza influenza expertsIt is an organization set up under.New influenza measures special measures lawIt is an organization that consults and deliberates whether it meets the requirements of an emergency based onNew coronavirus infectionAlso discuss emergency requirements for.Although the names are similar,New Coronavirus Infectious Disease Control Headquarters OfNew Coronavirus Infectious Diseases Control Experts MeetingIt is not an organization located underneath.
- ^ Bi-monthly infectious disease general magazine (launched in March 2017). "J-IDEO" is an abbreviation for "Journal of Infectious Diseases Educational Omnibus".
- ^ a b c d Kume Hiro It’s a radio"Measures against infectious diseases with a mathematical model Hiroshi Nishiura (Professor, Graduate School, Hokkaido University)"TBS Radio, August 2019, 3.
- ^ a b c d Masami Fujita "Effective measures against infectious diseases with a mathematical model --POLICY DOOR ~ Media that connects research, policy and society ~"
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa "Hiroshi Nishiura" "Hiroshi Nishiura --My Portal --researchmap"National Institute of Informatics, August 2020, 4.
- ^ Roy M. Anderson and Robert M. May, Infectious diseases of humans --dynamics and control, Oxford University Press, 1992.
- ^ a b Hiroshi Nishiura, "Mathematical and statistical epidemiology of emerging / re-emerging infectious diseases with particular emphasis on inference of key parameters / Mathematical and theoretical epidemiological studies on emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases: especially focusing on major parameter estimation]" Hiroshima University Dissertation, A No. 3913, 2006,NOT 500000348757.
- ^ Hiroshi NishiuraAkira Morita"Utilizing Mathematical Models for Policy Formation for Infectious Disease Control | SciREX Science and Technology Innovation Policy "Science for Policy" Promotion Project』\ Science and Technology Innovation Research Center.
- ^ CoSTEP. “How nice! Hokudai-Estimate coronavirus infectivity and mortality with a mathematical model”(Japanese). costep.open-ed.hokudai.ac.jp. Hokkaido University Institution for the Advancement of Higher Education Science and Technology Communication Education and Research Division (CoSTEP). 2020/5/11Browse.
- ^ "Rapid increase in the number of patients, a paper by Nishiura et al. (January 2020, 1, 20)". http://minato.sip21c.org/2019-nCoV-im3r.html (Notes and links about 2019-nCoV). Nakazawa Port Professor, Graduate School of Health Sciences, Kobe University (Public Health Area / International Health Area). 2020/5/11Browse.
- ^ "About the establishment of the new coronavirus cluster countermeasure group”(Japanese). www.mhlw.go.jp. 2020/5/11Browse.
- ^ Shigeru Omi, Chairman of Japan Community Health Care Organization, Takaji Wakita, Director of National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Hitoshi Oshitani, Professor of Tohoku University, Moderator of Editorial Writer, Nihon Keizai ShimbunRyosuke Harada.. (February 2020, 2). “New Corona: New Corona Roundtable Whether the chain is broken or the last 1-2 weeks is a crucial moment”(Japanese). Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 2020/5/11Browse. “Mr. Oshiya The biggest mystery about the new coronavirus was that no chain of infections was found by investigating close contacts. Why is it prevalent? One person infects 1 to 10 people. There should be a cluster like this. The rest of the infection chain disappears naturally, so I realized two weeks ago that I should find the cluster and crush it so that it doesn't spread to others. When I talked to Professor Hiroshi Nishiura of Hokkaido University, who is involved in predicting the spread of infection, I noticed the same thing. If a cluster is confirmed, take measures to suppress the chain. It should be able to converge early. "
- ^ "Why cluster measures are important (February 2020, 2)”(Japanese). http://minato.sip21c.org/2019-nCoV-im3r.html (Notes and links about 2019-nCoV). Nakazawa Port Professor, Graduate School of Health Sciences, Kobe University (Public Health Area / International Health Area). 2020/5/11Browse.
- ^ a b "What is the background behind the birth of "Three Secrets"? -Professor Oshitani, Tohoku University (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare Cluster Countermeasures Group) | Medical Restoration-Medical column at m3.com”(Japanese). www.m3.com. 2020/5/11Browse.
- ^ Sentence / Hiroto Kawabata (May 2020, 5). “How to spread the new corona: The number of reproductions and the big discovery of "denseness" (Laboratory special edition: New corona, the truth, Kobe University Nakazawa Port)”(Japanese). natgeo.nikkeibp.co.jp. Web National Geographic. 2020/5/23Browse.
- ^ "Declarations so far (Corona) | Public Relations Division, Governor's Office, General Policy Department". www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp.Hokkaido. 2020/5/11Browse.
- ^ "New Corona Expert Meeting Chairman Wakita and others meet (Full text 2) Effective reproduction number clearly decreases”. Yahoo! News (THE PAGE) (delivered at 3:20 on 11/50 (Fri.)). 2020/5/20Browse.
- ^ ""Successful Hokkaido model", "Signs of epidemic decline nationwide" but unpredictable | Medical Restoration --Medical column on m3.com”(Japanese). www.m3.com. 2020/5/11Browse.
- ^ a b c Naoko Iwanaga and Yuto Chiba "The reason why Professor Hiroshi Nishiura, who is known as "8% uncle", sticks to this number to prevent the expansion of corona.] October 2020, 4.
- ^ Nishiura, Hiroshi (April 2020, 4). “This is really angry for me. Forgive me as an 8% uncle https://twitter.com/KP5khc0UcrJixnX/status/1248397205569818628…”(Japanese). @nishiurah. 2020/5/11Browse.
- ^ Normile, Dennis (April 2020, 4). “Did Japan miss its chance to keep the coronavirus in check?”. Science. two:10.1126 / science.abc3829
- ^ "April 2, 4nd year of Reiwa Prime Minister Abe's press conference on new coronavirus infection”. Prime Minister's Office. 2020/5/11Browse. “Experts estimate that if all of us work hard to reduce the chances of contact between people by at least XNUMX% and as much as XNUMX%, the increase in infected people will peak out and decrease in two weeks. By doing so, not only can we avoid an explosive increase in infected people, but we also think that there is a possibility of containment by cluster measures. Golden Week, including the period to determine the effect, will be held. Please refrain from going out, aiming for a XNUMX% to XNUMX% reduction for the month ending May XNUMXth. "
- ^ "New Corona, 42 deaths, trial calculation announced when there is no countermeasure-serious 85 people, Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare group". Current affairs dot com. Jiji Press (September 2020, 4). 2020/5/9Browse.
- ^ "Expert Estimate "Not Official View" Corona Dead and Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga". Current affairs dot com. Jiji Press (September 2020, 4). 2020/5/9Browse.
- ^ "[Special Contribution] Mathematical model of "8% uncle" and its basis ── Hiroshi Nishiura, Professor of Hokkaido University”(Japanese). Newsweek Japanese version (September 2020, 6). 2020/6/23Browse.
- ^ Hiroshi Nishiura Interview with Professor, Graduate School of Hokkaido University / Interviewer / Composition Hiroto Kawabata (Writer). Chuo Koron July 2020 Issue First Issue: “"Uncle 8%" Cluster Countermeasures Team Senki [Part XNUMX] -What I would like to convey when returning to the laboratory of Hokkaido University from the building of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (Chuo Koron)”(Japanese). Yahoo! News. 2020/7/9Browse.
- ^ Sentence / Hiroto Kawabata (May 2020, 5). “New corona, cluster measures and the true meaning of "8% reduction" (Laboratory special edition: New corona, the truth Kobe University Nakazawa Port)”(Japanese). natgeo.nikkeibp.co.jp. Web National Geographic. 2020/5/23Browse.
- ^ "The XNUMXnd Osaka Prefecture New Coronavirus Countermeasures Headquarters Expert Meeting”(Japanese). Osaka. 2020/6/22Browse.
- ^ Sentence / Yusuke Morishita, Yuuki Kubota, Chinami Taka (June 2020, 6). “Did you overdo the leave request?Governor Yoshimura "Verify" Chairman disagrees”(Japanese). Asahi Shimbun. 2020/6/22Browse.
- ^ "https://twitter.com/ryuichiyoneyama/status/1245971600215650309”(Japanese). Twitter. 2020/11/1Browse.
- ^ "https://twitter.com/ryuichiyoneyama/status/1250234833357307904”(Japanese). Twitter. 2020/11/1Browse.
- ^ "[Satoshi Fujii] [Request a formal response] I think that Mr. Nishiura and Mr. Omi's support for "extending the emergency situation in Golden Week" is a "mortal sin."”(Japanese). "New" Keisei Saimin Shimbun (September 2020, 5). 2020/5/23Browse.
- ^ "[Dr. Kentaro Iwata "What is the" real contribution "of Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura who suppressed the infection explosion?" [Urgent serialization]] | BEST T! MES column”(Japanese). BEST TiMES (September 2020, 5). 2020/5/30Browse.
- ^ "[Dr. Kentaro Iwata "What was the factor that suppressed the infection explosion in Japan?" [Urgent serialization ②]] | BEST T! MES column”(Japanese). BEST TiMES (September 2020, 5). 2020/5/30Browse.
- ^ "[Dr. Kentaro Iwata "Don't" rely "only on Dr. Nishiura for infection control and analysis" [Urgent serialization ③]] | BEST T! MES column”(Japanese). BEST TiMES (September 2020, 5). 2020/5/30Browse.
- ^ "[Dr. Kentaro Iwata "Science goes through verification and gradually approaches the truth" [Urgent serialization ④ Final]] | BEST T! MES column”(Japanese). BEST TiMES (September 2020, 5). 2020/5/30Browse.
- ^ "[Professor Satoshi Fujii, Kyoto University "Thorough verification of" 8% self-restraint "in preparation for the second wave" [Urgent counterargument ①]] | BEST TiMES column”(Japanese). BEST TiMES. 2020/7/6Browse.
- ^ "[Professor Satoshi Fujii "8% self-restraint" has no clear statistical evidence that infection has decreased [Urgent counterargument (XNUMX)]] | BEST TiMES column”(Japanese). BEST TiMES. 2020/7/6Browse.
- ^ "[Professor Satoshi Fujii, "Thorough verification of" 8% self-restraint "in preparation for the second wave" [Urgent counterargument ③: Strengthening border measures instead of self-restraint has converged the infection] | BEST TiMES column”(Japanese). BEST TiMES. 2020/7/6Browse.
- ^ "[Professor Satoshi Fujii, Kyoto University "Thorough verification of" 8% self-restraint "in preparation for the second wave" [Urgent counterargument ④: It turns out that there are many "ineffective self-restraints".After that, avoid uniform self-restraint]] | BEST TiMES column”(Japanese). BEST TiMES. 2020/7/6Browse.
- ^ "Shukan Bunshun July 2020, 7 Predicting the "second wave", the threat that arrived "I'll cut my neck" 30% uncle <Professor Nishiura> "The third wave will definitely come"”(Japanese). Weekly Bunshun WEB (Bunshun Co., Ltd.). 2020/7/28Browse.
- ^ a b "New Corona "The number of people infected with the second wave will increase from the first wave" "Uncle 2%" Professor Nishiura gives a lecture and calls for caution | Society | Local news | Kyoto Shimbun”(Japanese). Kyoto Shimbun (July 2020, 7 18:12). 2020/7/26Browse.
- ^ "Shiro Tazaki and Minister Nishimura are hoaxed by "seeing off the request for a two-week leave"!Professor Nishiura, who was the basis, said, "The lie of the Tasaki = Nishimura line" "Immediately closed" ① ｜ LITERA』Lost News, April 2020, 4.
- ^ "Shiro Tazaki and Minister Nishimura are hoaxed by "seeing off the request for a two-week leave"!Professor Nishiura, who was the basis for this, said, "The lie of the Tasaki = Nishimura line" "Immediately closed" ② ｜ LITERA』Lost News, April 2020, 4.
- ^ "Shiro Tazaki and Minister Nishimura are hoaxed by "seeing off the request for a two-week leave"!Professor Nishiura, who was the basis, said, "The lie of the Tasaki = Nishimura line" "Immediately closed" ④ ｜ LITERA』Lost News, April 2020, 4.
- ^ Hiroshi Nishiura "Hiroshi Nishiura uses Twitter"twitter, August 2020, 4.
- ^ "Continuing current efforts Expert meetings meet (5 sentences in full) Effective experience for long-distance battle (THE PAGE)”(Japanese). Yahoo! News (THE PAGE). 2020/5/23Browse.
- ^ a b "[Ask Professor Nishiura, Uncle 8%] All of the effective reproduction numbers of the new corona Online lecture Live broadcast / Organizer: Japan Science and Technology Journalist Conference". Nico Nico Live Broadcast. 2020/5/19Browse.
- ^ "Announcement of emergency study session (May 5) Ask Professor Nishiura of Hokkaido University about corona countermeasures using the number of reproduced reproductions (Rt)”(Japanese). Japan Science and Technology Journalists Conference (September 2020, 5). 2020/5/23Browse.
- ^ Intervention, Cluster (2020-05-23), contactmodel / COVID19-Japan-Reff 2020/5/23Browse.
- ^ "Q & A (answers to questions on the day) ｜ JASTJ COVID-19 Information organization for science journalists ｜ note”(Japanese). note. 2020/5/23Browse.
- ^ Kazuki Ogiwara (Toyo Keizai Online Editorial Department). “Status of domestic infection of new coronavirus”(Japanese). toyokeizai.net. 2020/5/23Browse.
- ^ Akihiro Nomura: Columnist, Toyo Keizai Commentary Department (May 2020, 5). “Toyo Keizai Releases New Corona "Effective Reproduction Number" | Understanding the Corona War”(Japanese). 東洋 経 済 オ ン ラ イ ン. 2020/5/23Browse.
- ^ "Prime Minister Abe press conference on new coronavirus infection”. Prime Minister's Office (August 2020, 5). 2020/6/23Browse.
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation (May 2020, 29). “Special site Special corridor for new wave coronavirus prepared by expert meeting [Point]｜NHK". www3.nhk.or.jp. 2020/6/23Browse.
- ^ "Situation analysis and recommendations for new coronavirus infectious disease countermeasures (May 2, 5)". https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/novel_coronavirus/taisaku_honbu.html. Prime Minister's Office New Coronavirus Infectious Disease Control Headquarters New Coronavirus Infectious Disease Control Expert Meeting. 2020/6/23Browse.
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation (June 2020, 6, 2:18). ““Large-scale epidemic after 1 months with 10 infected people entering the country a day” Expert". NHK News. 2020/6/23Browse.
- ^ Summary: Yoshiko Hashimoto (June 2020, 6). “Professor Nishiura's Special Lecture“ Risks of Relaxation of Immigration Restrictions, Simulation ”| Medical Restoration --Medical Column at m2.com” (Japanese). www.m3.com. Retrieved June 2020, 6.
- ^ Summary: Yoshiko Hashimoto (June 2020, 6). "" Easy resumption of international movement ", causing a large-scale epidemic | Medical Restoration --Medical column on m2.com" (Japanese).www.m3.com. Retrieved June 2020, 6
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation. “Government decision on relaxation of immigration restrictions New coronavirus". NHK News. 2020/6/23Browse.
- ^ "38th (held on June 2, 6nd year of Reiwa) Material". https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/novel_coronavirus/taisaku_honbu.html. New Coronavirus Infection Control Headquarters. 2020/6/23Browse.
- ^ Hiroshi Nishiura, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University 2020.8.1 05:00 Sankei WEST
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation. “Can the new virus pneumonia be contained?". NHK close-up modern +. 2020/4/23Browse.
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation. “What's happening at the scene of the new virus "on the brink"". NHK close-up modern +. 2020/4/23Browse.
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- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation. “NHK Special Plus Report from the front line to prevent the spread of new coronavirus infection”(Japanese). N Special Plus | NHK Special. 2020/4/23Browse.
- ^ ""Thorough reduction of contact by 8%" Professor Kita University kills up to 40 people”(Japanese). Nikkei newspaper electronic version (2020/4/15 22:02). 2020/4/25Browse.
- ^ Hajime Mikami, Kazuya Goto, Ichino Mass (April 2020, 4, 16:7). “8% Uncle, Nishiura's sense of crisis The sweeter the reduction, the longer it takes: Asahi Shimbun Digital”(Japanese). Asahi Shimbun digital. 2020/4/25Browse.
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation (Japanese), "State of Emergency What's Happening Now?" --NHK Special --NHK 2020/4/23Browse.
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation. “NHK Special "State of Emergency Declaration What's happening now"”(Japanese). NHK program guide. 2020/4/23Browse.
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation. “NHK Special Plus Emergency Declaration How to survive this difficult situation?”(Japanese). N Special Plus | NHK Special. 2020/4/23Browse.
- ^ Professor Nishiura of Hokkaido University explained the basis for the evaluation of "8% contact reduction" (April 2020, 4) THE PAGEYouTube uncut live video
- ^ "Infected people are "at least 10 times more than" announced, Hokkaido University professor, Keio University Hospital case is also "valuable information" (THE PAGE)”(Japanese). Yahoo! News (4/24 (Friday) 22:59 delivery). 2020/4/25Browse.
- ^ Naoyuki Himeno (April 2020, 4, 24:23). “"8% reduction in contact" Professor Nishiura proposes evaluation method Some areas achieved: Asahi Shimbun Digital”(Japanese). Asahi Shimbun digital. 2020/4/25Browse.
- ^ Yuto Chiba (April 2020, 4 25:16). “Professor Hiroshi Nishiura, also known as "8% Uncle," talked about PCR testing.Also mentions the actual number of infected people, which may be 10 times higher than the current number”(Japanese). BuzzFeed. 2020/4/26Browse.
- ^ Yoshiko Hashimoto (April 2020, 4). “"How do you evaluate 8% reduction in contact?" Commentary by Professor Nishiura Hokkaido University | Medical Restoration --Medical column on m3.com”(Japanese). www.m3.com. 2020/4/26Browse.
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation (Japanese), "New Coronavirus Declaration of Emergency-Medical and Economic Whereabouts-" --NHK Special --NHK 2020/4/26Browse.
- ^ Nippon Television Network Corporation. “Sho Sakurai asks Professor Nishiura, "Uncle XNUMX%" -New Corona Countermeasures, Response and Toothiness”(Japanese). Nippon TV. 2020/5/23Browse.
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation (Japanese), "New Coronavirus Exit Strategy" --NHK Special --NHK 2020/5/11Browse.
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation. “NHK Special "New Coronavirus Exit Strategy"”(Japanese). NHK program guide. 2020/5/11Browse.
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation. “Points of interest approaching the key man-Beyond the cancellation of the state of emergency-". NHK close-up modern +. 2020/5/30Browse.
- ^ "Called the 74th case, a warning bell from the origin of the new corona "XNUMX dense" | NNN document”(Japanese). Nippon TV. 2020/6/3Browse.
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation (Japanese), Will the new coronavirus crisis be repeated? Whereabouts of the pandemic --- NHK Special --NHK 2020/6/28Browse.
- ^ "The 84th Annual Meeting of the Japanese Circulation Society". www.congre.co.jp. 2020/7/10Browse.
- ^ "Main story 84th Annual Meeting of the Japanese Circulation Society Commemorative Dialogue Kyoto University, Shinya Yamanaka x Hokkaido University, Hiroshi Nishiura "Decision-making in the epidemic of the new coronavirus-what to think and how to judge under unprecedented circumstances-" --YouTube". www.youtube.com. 2020/7/26Browse.
- ^ Japan Broadcasting Corporation. “Mr. Nishiura talks with Mr. Yamanaka “Awareness that community-acquired infections are beginning to spread”". NHK News. 2020/7/10Browse.
- ^ Reiko Motoshima (July 2020, 7). “COVID-19 Watch ② Is it still "2nd table, virus side attack" | Pharmaceutical Economy Online". 2020/7/28Browse.
- ^ "Announcement of the online symposium "Current Situation and Countermeasures for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) -What We Have Learned and How to Prepare for the Second Wave-"”. Kansai Health and Medical Creation Conference. 2020/7/27Browse.
- ^ "Current status and countermeasures for the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) -What we have learned and how to prepare for the second wave-YouTube". www.youtube.com. 2020/7/26Browse.
- ^ ""Infected people will increase from the first wave" Professor Nishiura, Hokkaido University”(Japanese). Nikkei newspaper electronic version (2020/7/17 20:58). 2020/7/26Browse.
- Hiroshi Nishiura's Website --Nishiura's official website
- Hiroshi Nishiura (@nishiurah)- Twitter
- Hiroshi Nishiura - Researchmap
- Hiroshi Nishiura - J-GLOBAL
- Hiroshi Nishiura --KAKEN Grant-in-Aid for Scientific ResearchDatabase
- Researcher Resolver ID:1000070432987,IRDB
- Department of Hygiene, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University | Department of Hygiene, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University --The official website of the laboratory to which Nishiura belongs
- Volunteer Association of Experts on Coronavirus Infection --The official website of the Volunteer Association in which Nishiura participates