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🏛 | Mitashi Eat and Yamanashi!The mayoral election of Yamanashi is a one-on-one battle between the incumbent and the newcomer!


Mitashi Eat and Yamanashi!The mayoral election of Yamanashi is a one-on-one battle between the incumbent and the newcomer!

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<Confronting a declining population due to the declining birthrate and aging population!

Haruo Takagi (9), who is incumbent, is recommended by the Liberal Democratic Party for the election of Mayor of Yamanashi announced on September 19th. → Continue reading

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Population decline society

Population decline society(Jinkougenshoshakai, population decline) is社会More deaths than births inpopulationIs the time of decrease.JapanIn2000 eraSecond half or2010 eraAfter that, it is said that it has entered that phase.

Areas that have entered a declining population

Areas that have entered a declining population
CountryYearspopulationNatural reduction
(%, 2007)[1]
Albania flag アルバニア20140.456Birth rate decline, immigrant transfer
Belarusian flag ベ ラ ル ー シ2014increase0.362Birth rate decline
Flag of Bosnia and Herzegovina.svg Bosnia and Hellegovina20130.003Birth rate decline, immigration, Bosnian war
Bulgarian flag ブルガリア20140.796Birth rate decline, high mortality rate, high abortion rate, excess immigration[2]
Cook Islands Flag Eur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.eu20133.136Immigration (especially in the 20s and 34s)[3]
Croatian flag クロアチア20140.092Birth rate decline, immigrant migration, war[4]
Czech flag Czech Republic20150.134Birth rate decline
Cuban flag キ ュ ー バ20120.115Immigrant migration, decreased birth rate[5]
Estonia flag エストニア20140.65Birth rate decline
German flag Germany2014increase0.2Birth rate decreased, population increased due to immigration from 2012
Greek flag Greece20140.16Birth rate decline, economic crisis
Hungarian flag ハンガリー20140.184Birth rate decline
Italian flag イタリア20140.09Birth rate decline
Japanese flag Japan2015126,880,0000.077Birth rate decline, low immigrant migration
Latvian flag ラトビア20140.598Birth rate decline, immigrant transfer
Lithuanian flag リトアニア20140.278Birth rate decline, immigrant transfer
Niue flag ニウエ20112.308Immigrant
Northern Mariana Islands Flag 北 マ リ ア ナ 諸島20122.449Immigrant
Federated States of Micronesia ミクロネシア 連邦20120.343Immigrant
Moldova flag Eur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.eu20131.014Birth rate decline
Polish flag ポーランド20140.075Birth rate decline, immigrant transfer
Portugal flag Portugal20140.07Birth rate decline, economic crisis, immigrant migration
Puerto Rico flag プ エ ル ト リ コ20133.136Birth rate decline, economic crisis
Romanian flag ルーマニア20140.26Low fertility rate, high mortality rate, high abortion rate, immigrant migration
Russian flag ロシア2014increase0.48High mortality rate, low birth rate, high abortion rate, low immigration[6].Increasing trend from 2014
Serbian flag Eur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.eu20140.464Low fertility rate, high mortality rate, high abortion rate, immigrant migration
Ukrainian flag ウクライナ201443,001,0000.625Birth rate decline, high mortality rate


Causal relationship with the economy

economic growth

There is an opinion that economic growth will decrease as the population decreases[7].

Japan's labor force has been declining since 1999, but there is no fact that its growth rate has dropped significantly.[7].. Russia's population has been declining for more than 1992 years since peaking in 10, but it continues to grow at a higher rate than Japan.[7].. In Russia, the population of more than 1995 people has been declining almost every year since 80, but until 1999-2008GDPContinues to grow at an average of 6.75%[8].

OECDAccording to the statistics, the rate of population growth and the rate of productivity growth are clearly inversely proportional. In other words, if the population decreases, labor productivity will increase[9].. Per capita GDP tends to increase in smaller populations[10].. If the amount of capital is constant, the smaller the number of people, the larger the capital used by one person, and the higher the production per person.[11].. Declining population means fewer producers while fewer consumers. If it decreases at the same rate, there will be no change in per capita affluence. The economic power of the whole country becomes smaller[12].

Working-age population

Declining population will reduce domestic consumption and reduce the labor force[13].. A declining population is a society in which the working-age population is declining, but for this reason more people need to work[14].

If the environment where women and the elderly can work is prepared, it can be dealt with, so the labor problem will not become serious unless an extreme population decline occurs.[15].. The issue of population decline is only after women and the elderly have fully achieved social participation.[16].

National finance

If the working youth population declines,income taxTax revenues will decrease[13].. Tax revenues decrease due to declining birthrate and aging population, while spending increases[17].


Regarding the impact of the declining birthrate and aging population, the higher the age, the higher the ratio of income to consumption, which leads to a decrease in the household savings rate. While reducing education spending (increasing elderly population) will increase demand for entertainment, potentially creating medical and nursing-related businesses[18].

物 価

International settlement bank(BIS),Bank of FinlandIs a researcher in the field of aging based on data from 22-1955 in 2010 developed countries.inflationPointed out that pressure may increase[19].

Other effects

The housing environment will improve due to the declining population. In addition, a comfortable environment can be realized if the number of green spaces and parks increases.[20].. Housing conditions will improve and commuting congestion and traffic congestion will be alleviated[9].


The reason that this word has become widely used in Japan is2005 (17)12To the preliminary population, which is the first aggregated result of the “17 Census”Ministry of Internal Affairs and CommunicationsStatistics BureauIt was from the time it was announced. Among them, the Bureau of Statistics said, "It seems that Japan's population is entering a declining phase, with a decrease of 1 compared to the estimated population a year ago," and attracted social attention.[21].. As of 2009 (Heisei 21), the Bureau of Statistics estimated that it was 2008 (Heisei 20) when it actually entered the phase of population decline.[21].


Before and after the first announcement of "population decline" by the Statistics Bureau, it was predicted that "Japan will surely become a society with a declining population in the future." Report is submitted by government office or academic conference[22][23].

2014 (26) March 2,Cabinet Office"Choosing the Future" Commission has shown that by accepting 20 foreign immigrants each year, Japan's population of 1 million can be maintained 100 years from now.[24].

Specific impact

AutomobileThe domestic market is shrinking due to a decrease in the number of vehicles owned. The number of new cars sold in Japan (registered cars + light cars) is1990 It peaked at 2 million units in (778) and reached a peak.2014 (26) decreased to 556 million units, and it is a general view that there are no factors to increase further in the future.[25]. this isEco carThe spread ofLow birthrate and aging populationProblems, of the population (especiallyTokyo extreme concentration) Is a phenomenon in which elements such as are associated in a complex manner.

Accompanying the abovegasolineDue to the long-term decline in domestic demand for fuel,2019 ToIdemitsu KosanとShowa Shell Sekiyu OfManagement integrationIs done, etc.Oil wholesaleIt was argued as one of the reasons that spurred the reorganization of.


[How to use footnotes]

注 釈


  1. ^ 2007 World Population Data Sheet
  2. ^ http://www.nsi.bg/census2011/pagebg2.php?p2=36&sp2=37&SSPP2=4 2011 National Demographic Census, Age Structure
  3. ^ http://www.unicef.org/eapro/Adolescents_-_Cook_Islands_statement.pdf
  4. ^ Croatian Bureau of Statistics Notes on methodology (Census 2011), accessed 7 July 2013
  5. ^ Cuban Population still on the Decrease
  6. ^ Rosenberg, Matt Population Decline in Russia
  7. ^ a b c UFJ Research Institute, Research Department, "The Japanese Economy in 50 Words", Nikkei Business Newspaper, Nikkei Business Bunko, 2005, p. 17.
  8. ^ Takaaki Mitsuhashi: Read the back of economic news! TAC Publishing, 2009, 68 pages.
  9. ^ a b Morinaga Takuro, "The 50 Great Questions of the Japanese Economy" Kodansha <Kodansha Hyundai Shinsho>, 2002, 210 pages.
  10. ^ Yasuyuki Iida “Introduction to the simplest economy in the world. From everyday questions to deflation” Enterbrain, 2010, 106 pages.
  11. ^ Yasuyuki Iida "Introduction to the simplest economy in the world Understand the economy with profits and losses! From everyday questions to deflation” Enterbrain, 2010, pp. 106-107.
  12. ^ Harada Yasushi, Compact Japanese Economics (Compact Economics Library), Shinseisha, 2009, p. 184.
  13. ^ a b Office Text, Center for Policy Economic Research, Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. "Handbook of Understanding the Economy," Kanki Publishing, 2009, 224 pages.
  14. ^ Harada Yasushi, Compact Japanese Economics (Compact Economics Library), Shinseisha, 2009, p. 208.
  15. ^ Morinaga Takuro, "The 50 Great Questions of the Japanese Economy" Kodansha <Kodansha Hyundai Shinsho>, 2002, 211 pages.
  16. ^ Yasuyuki Iida “Introduction to the simplest economy in the world. From everyday questions to deflation” Enterbrain, 2010, p.242.
  17. ^ Satoshi Matsubara 『Japanese Economy (Illustrated trivia series)” Natsume, 2000, p. 176.
  18. ^ Daiwa Institute of Research “Latest edition: An introduction to the structure of the economy: seeing, reading, and understanding” Japan Business Publisher, 4th edition, 2002, pages 77, 86.
  19. ^ Aging is likely to increase inflationary pressure-I disagree with the BOJ's viewBloomberg August 2015, 2
  20. ^ Harada Yasushi, Compact Japanese Economics (Compact Economics Library), Shinseisha, 2009, p. 210.
  21. ^ a b c Statistics Bureau Home Page/Statistics Today No. 9 When is the "first year" of a declining population?
  22. ^ Environment in the era of depopulation 18 versionEnvironmental White Paper(Ministry of the Environment, 2006)
  23. ^ Rich "society" in the era of population decline -Report of the 19th Science Council of Japan Artificial/Food/Energy Special Committee (September 2005, 17)
  24. ^ Can immigrants maintain Japan's population of 1 million? Government debate in full swingThe Huffington Post September 2014, 2
  25. ^ http://kabutan.jp/news/marketnews/?b=n201502230265

Related literature

  • Toru Morotomi "City in the age of depopulation-to mature town development" Chuokoron-Shinsha <Chukoron-Shinsho>, 2018. 
  • Yamazaki Shiro "Depopulation and Social Security-Overcoming Isolation and Shrinkage" Chuokoron-Shinsha <Chukoron-Shinsho>, 2017. 
  • Hiroshi Yoshikawa "Population and Japanese Economy Longevity, Innovation, Economic Growth" Chuokoron-Shinsha <Chukoron-Shinsho>, 2016. 
  • "Land problems in the era of depopulation-" Owner unknown "and inheritance, vacant houses, whereabouts of the system" Chuokoron-Shinsha <Chukoron-Shinsho>, 2017. 

Related item

Low birthrate and old age


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