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🏛 | Children's Family Agency, passed the House of Representatives, reports to the Prime Minister, founded in April 23

Photo The House of Representatives plenary session passed by a majority in favor of a bill related to the establishment of the "Children's Family Agency" = 17th afternoon

Children's Family Agency, passing the House of Representatives, under the direct control of the Prime Minister, established in April 23

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The Children's and Family Affairs Agency will take a wide range of measures to resolve issues such as the declining birthrate, abuse, and child poverty.

On the 17th, the House of Representatives held a plenary session to pass a bill related to the establishment of the "Children's Family Agency," which will be the control tower for children's policies.Ruling party, country ... → Continue reading

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Children's Family Agency

Children's Family AgencyWhat is (Children's Day)?Fumio KishidaThe installation bill was submitted by the Cabinet and is scheduled to be installed on April 2023, 4.Japan OfAdministrative agencyIs.So farMinistry of education,Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare,Cabinet Office,National Police AgencyThe purpose is to consolidate the administrative affairs surrounding the children under the jurisdiction of.In this item, the establishment was originally planned.Children's OfficeAlso touch on a part[1][2].


Originally in JapanMinistry of educationBut,"Kindergarten,primary school,Junior high school,high school,University-Junior college-College of technology-Vocational schools OfEarly childhood education,Compulsory education,BullyingMeasures,School refusalMeasures,suicidePreventive measures, variousharassmentPrevention, etc. "Ministry of Health, Labor and WelfareBut,"Childcare(),Licensed Nursery School-Nursery,Waiting-listMeasures,child consultation centerThroughYoung carerMeasures,Maternal and child health,Single-parent familysupport,Handicapped childsupport,neglect,Child abusePrevention, etc. ".Cabinet OfficeBut,"nursery-Authorized child institution,YoungerMeasures,Child povertyMeasures,Children's cafeteria(Ministry of Agricultureetc),Children's allowanceetc".National Police AgencyBut,"Juvenile crimemeasures,·Child prostitutionMeasures,Sexual exploitationPrevention, etc. "And the jurisdiction over children was divided into various ministries and agencies (Vertically divided administration)[3].

So, firstDemocratic PartyadministrationAtKindergarten integrationUnder the policy, the establishment of a "Ministry of Child and Family Affairs" (one that unifies only kindergartens and nursery schools, which was later considered insufficient) was considered.[4].LDPbyRegime changeLater, the establishment of a similar ministry and agency will be aimed at as the "Children's Agency".[5].. on the other hand,Constitutional Democratic PartyIs aimed at setting up under the names of "Children's Family Agency" and "Ministry of Children".[6][7].

In December 2018, the bipartisan "All-Party Parliamentary League for the Enactment of the Basic Law for Child Health and Development" (Chairman:Takeo Kawamura,executive director:Eiko Emi) Legislative legislationBasic Growth LawWas established, and in the supplementary provisions, "The government considers the ideal state of the administrative organization to comprehensively promote measures related to the provision of growth medical care, etc., and when it finds it necessary, it is necessary based on the results. Measures shall be taken. "This is the legal basis for the establishment of the Children's Home Office.[8][9]

September 2021, 1, LDPMember of the House of Councilors Of山 田太郎At the timePrime ministerMetYoshii KanProposed the establishment of "Children's Agency".Suga, whose motto is to break down the vertically divided administration, showed strong interest, and the Children's Agency concept started to move.[10].

Yamada, a member of the House of Councilors of the Liberal Democratic Party, and a pediatricianEiko EmiStarted a study session by young members of the Liberal Democratic Party, and compiled recommendations in mid-March.[10]..On the other hand, even within the governmentChief Cabinet Secretary OfKatsunobu KatoThe study had begun centering on[10].

On April 4, the same year, Yamada et al. Made a proposal for the establishment of the Children's Agency, the Prime Minister.Yoshii KanApply to.Suga expressed his intention to work with a strong determination, and instructed Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai and others to set up a study body within the LDP on the same day.[10]..Suga also decided to establish the Children's Agency at the House of Councilors Settlement Committee on April 4.Eiko EmiAsked from the question, "I take it very seriously. I want to respond firmly," he showed a strong desire.[11]

2021 Liberal Democratic Party presidential electionIn particular, at the "Children's Policy Public Debate" held by the "Children First Children's Administration Study Group", which is considered to be one of the issues.Seiko NodaShowed a strong desire to establishTaro Kono,Fumio KishidaAlso showed motivation,Sanae TakaichiDid not clarify the attitude[12][13][14][15][16].

On December 2021, 12, the name was changed to "It is desirable to give a name that emphasizes the role of the family in child-rearing" and "It is important to support not only children but also child-rearing households". The policy to change to "Children's Household Agency" was shown[17][18][2]..Originally, this name wasKomeitoAnd the conservatives within the Liberal Democratic Party, who value the "traditional view of the family," also raised their voices.[19][20][21][22][23], As mentioned above, it is also familiar with the name proposal of the Constitutional Democratic Party.[24]..21th of the same monthCabinetSo, the name of "Children's Family Agency" and the basic policy of aiming to establish it as soon as possible next year have been decided.[25][2].

On February 2022, 2, the Cabinet decided on a bill to establish a child and family agency and a bill to improve related laws accompanying the enforcement of the child and family agency establishment law.[26]And submitted to the House of Representatives on the same day[27][28].

On May 2022, 5, a related bill to establish a child and family agency was held at the plenary session of the House of Representatives with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito.National Democratic Party・ Approved by the majority of independent clubs[27][28][29].

On June 2022, 6, a bill related to the establishment of the Children's and Family Affairs Agency was passed by the House of Councilors plenary session, and the bill was passed.[27][28]

Overview of the planned organization

Child and Family Affairs Agency establishment bill submitted to the Diet on February 2[30]According to the Children's and Family Affairs Agency,Cabinet Office OfOuter office(Article 2, Paragraph 1).According to media reports, an organization that reports directly to the Prime Minister[31]It is said that.Certainly,Cabinet OfficeSince the head of the Prime Minister is the Prime Minister, the expression that he reports directly to the Prime Minister is not wrong, but this is common to other external agencies of the Cabinet Office such as the Financial Services Agency and the Consumer Affairs Agency. Yes, the Children's and Family Affairs Agency is not the only one with a special position.

The head of the Children's and Family Affairs Agency is the Secretary of the Children's and Family Affairs Agency (Article 2, Paragraph 2).Like the Commissioner of the Financial Services Agency and the Commissioner of the Consumer Affairs Agency, he is a general public employee.

Regarding the office work of the Children's Family AgencyMinister for Special Missions, Cabinet OfficeIs placed.It is indispensable because it is installed by abolishing the previous charge for measures against the declining birthrate (Article 11-3 of the Cabinet Office Establishment Law).[32]..Like the other Ministers of State for Special MissionsCabinet Office Establishment LawBased on Article 12, he has the authority to request the relevant administrative agencies to submit materials and explain about his / her own affairs, and to make recommendations.[2].

The Children's and Family Affairs Agency has offices and stations in accordance with Article 53, Paragraph 2 of the Cabinet Office Establishment Law (Article 9, Paragraph 1), and the number of offices and stations in the Children's and Family Affairs Agency is within three. (Article 3, Paragraph 9).

The specific organizational division is broadly composed of three departments: "Planning / Comprehensive Coordination Department", "Growth Department", and "Support Department".[25][33].. In the "Planning / Comprehensive Coordination Department", the comprehensive coordination functions related to child policy, which had been dispersed in each ministry, will be consolidated, and a general outline related to child policy will be created and promoted.also,Digital AgencyRegarding the situation of individual children / households, support contents, etc. in cooperation withDatabaseTo maintain. In the "growth department", it is common regardless of the type of facilityEducation-ChildcareTo be able to receiveMinistry of educationIn consultation withKindergarten,Licensed Nursery School,Authorized child institutionEstablish standards for educational and childcare content.Children'sSex crimeJapanese version for the purpose of preventing damageDBSAnd, we will proceed with the examination of CDR (Child Death Review) to verify the circumstances of the death of the child. In the "support department"Child abuse,BullyingAddress the problem and share information with the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology to take measures against serious bullying.moreoverYoung carer,Foster parentsPromote support for young people who grew up under[34]..The details of the organization are stipulated by Cabinet Order and Cabinet Office Ordinance, but since the number of secretariats and bureaus is XNUMX, it is possible that each department will be a department (the planning and general coordination department may become a secretariat). Is expected to be).

Under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Health, Labor and WelfareChild independence support facility OfNational Musashino AcademyとNational Kinugawa AcademyWill be transferred to the Children's Home Office[25]..There is no provision to set up a local branch office, and if necessary, the Children's and Family Affairs Agency will delegate the administration to the local welfare bureau.[25].


[How to use footnotes]
  1. ^ "Is "Children's Office" serious?Approaching the background and challenges". NHK (September 2021, 5). 2021/12/16Browse.
  2. ^ a b c d ""Children's Family Agency" Reiwa to be established in 5th year Cabinet decision on basic policy". NHK (September 2021, 12). 2021/12/21Browse.
  3. ^ "Children's Family Agency decides basic policy to establish in 23". The Nihon Ryoku Shimbun Electronic version (Nikkei Inc.). (November 2021, 12). https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA209CC0Q1A221C2000000/ 2021/12/29Browse. 
  4. ^ "Send off the" Ministry of Children and Family Affairs "Children's Garden under the jurisdiction of the Cabinet Office". The Nihon Ryoku Shimbun Electronic version (Nikkei Inc.). (November 2011, 1). https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXNASFS2701C_X20C11A1EE1000/ 2021/4/16Browse. 
  5. ^ "The Liberal Democratic Party aims to eliminate waiting-list children for the first time to establish the" Children's Agency "". The Nihon Ryoku Shimbun Electronic version (Nikkei Inc.). (November 2021, 4). https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA120D70S1A410C2000000/ 2021/4/16Browse. 
  6. ^ "Constitutional Democratic Party" Children's Family Agency "Examination". The Nihon Ryoku Shimbun Electronic version (Nikkei Inc.). (November 2021, 4). https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA139930T10C21A4000000/ 2021/4/16Browse. 
  7. ^ "Proposal for establishing the" Ministry of Children "of the Constitutional Democratic Party" Differentiating from the "Children's Agency" of the Liberal Democratic Party. The Nihon Ryoku Shimbun Electronic version (Nikkei Inc.). (November 2021, 5). https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA27DHJ0X20C21A5000000/ 2021/4/16Browse. 
  8. ^ "National Center for Child Health and Development passed the plenary session of both houses of the Diet". Japan Pediatric Association. 2022/6/6Browse.
  9. ^ Company, The Asahi Shimbun. “[Japan Medical Association Symposium] Being close to the "now" of children │ Asahi Shimbun Digital”(Japanese). Asahi Shimbun digital. 2022/6/5Browse.
  10. ^ a b c d "Is "Children's Office" serious?Approaching the background and challenges". NHK Political Magazine. Japan Broadcasting Corporation (September 2021, 5). 2022/6/6Browse.
  11. ^ INC, SANKEI DIGITAL (January 2021, 4). “Prime Minister Suga is motivated to establish the Children's Agency "Children's policy, proceed at all costs"”(Japanese). Sankei News. 2022/6/5Browse.
  12. ^ Yamada, Ryoto (September 2021, 9). “"Liberal Democratic Party President Election Children's Policy Public Debate" Held”(Japanese). Establishment of Children's Agency. 2022/6/5Browse.
  13. ^ "Abstract of interview with Mr. Noda, elected by the Liberal Democratic Governor, with children as the axis of national management". Mainichi Newspapers (Mainichi Newspaper Co., Ltd.). (November 2021, 9). https://mainichi.jp/articles/20210920/k00/00m/010/108000c 2021/12/29Browse. 
  14. ^ "Children's Agency, Mr. Kono, Mr. Kishida, Mr. Noda considers Mr. Takaichi does not make a statement, Liberal Democratic Party presidential election". The Nihon Ryoku Shimbun Electronic version (Nikkei Inc.). (November 2021, 9). https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA221N30S1A920C2000000/ 2021/12/29Browse. 
  15. ^ "Mr. Kono, Mr. Kishida, Mr. Noda inherited the" Children's Agency "Mr. Takaichi without making a statement-LDP presidential election". Current affairs dot com. Jiji Press (Jiji Press Inc.). (November 2021, 6). https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2021092200870 2021/12/29Browse. 
  16. ^ "Mr. Kono, Mr. Kishida, and Mr. Noda are motivated to establish the" Children's Agency "early ... Mr. Takaichi avoids making a statement.". Yongo Shimbun Online (Yomiuri Shimbun Tokyo Headquarters). (November 2021, 9). https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20210922-OYT1T50177/ 2021/12/29Browse. 
  17. ^ "The new organization will be changed to "Children's Agency" and "Children's Family Agency".”(Japanese). Yomiuri Shimbun Online (September 2021, 12). 2021/12/16Browse.
  18. ^ "The name of the new organization "Children's Family Agency", the Liberal Democratic Party approves the government proposal”(Japanese). Nihon Keizai Shimbun (September 2021, 12). 2021/12/16Browse.
  19. ^ "Establishment of the Children's and Family Affairs Agency" "Enactment of the Basic Law" Komeito makes policy proposals to the Prime Minister and moves with the ruling and opposition parties ". Tokyo Shimbun TOKYO Web (Chunichi Shimbun Co., Ltd. Tokyo Headquarters). (November 2021, 6). https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/107753 2021/12/29Browse. 
  20. ^ "<Original> Transfer of anti-bullying measures from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology to the new organization name" Children's Family Agency "". Sankei News (Sankei Shimbun Co., Ltd. / Sankei Digital Co., Ltd.). (November 2021, 12). https://www.sankei.com/article/20211214-Z54FSUSXCJPC5MMAVWIROAQB7I/ 2021/12/29Browse. 
  21. ^ “The government receives the ruling party policy from the new organization“ Children's Family Agency ””. The Nihon Ryoku Shimbun Electronic version (Nikkei Inc.). (November 2021, 12). https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA149680U1A211C2000000/ 2021/12/29Browse. 
  22. ^ "Renamed to" Children's Family Agency "presented on the 15th of the government, considering conservatives". 47NEWS. Kyodo News (Kyodo News Agency / Noah Dot Co., Ltd. / XNUMXNews Net Co., Ltd.). (November 2021, 12). https://nordot.app/843446064952066048?c=39546741839462401 2021/12/29Browse. 
  23. ^ "Consideration for LDP conservatives? Change" Children's Agency "to" Children's Family Agency "The ruling party approves the basic policy of the new government agency.". Tokyo Shimbun TOKYO Web (Chunichi Shimbun Co., Ltd. Tokyo Headquarters). (November 2021, 12). https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/149078 2021/12/29Browse. 
  24. ^ "Why change the name from" Children's Agency "to" Children's Family Agency "? ”. Tele morning news (ANN / TV Asahi Corporation). (November 2021, 12). https://news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_politics/articles/000238520.html 2021/12/29Browse. 
  25. ^ a b c d "Basic policy on new promotion system for children's policy" (PDF) (Press release), Prime minister's residence, (March 2021, 12), https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/seisaku/kodomo_seisaku/pdf/kihon_housin.pdf 2021/12/29Browse. 
  26. ^ January 4, 2nd (Friday), Revolving Cabinet item
  27. ^ a b c The 208th Diet of the Cabinet Law 38 Child and Family Affairs Agency Establishment Bill
  28. ^ a b c The 208th Diet of the Cabinet Law 39 Bill on the Development of Related Laws Accompanying the Enforcement of the Child and Family Affairs Agency Establishment Law
  29. ^ "Children's Family Agency bill passed, sent to the House of Councilors, to be passed in the current Diet session". Miyazaki Daily News. Kyodo News Agency (Miyazaki Nichinichi Shinbun Co., Ltd.) (No. 29215): p. 2 [Comprehensive]. (September 2022, 5) 
  30. ^ Child and Family Affairs Agency Establishment Bill
  31. ^ Ryuichi Hisanaga (December 2021, 12). "Strong authority over other ministries and agencies under the direct control of the Prime Minister of the" Children's Agency "The government's basic policy has been revealed.". Asahi Shimbun digital (Asahi Shimbun Co., Ltd. Tokyo Headquarters). https://digital.asahi.com/articles/ASPD23VWSPD2UTFL003.html 2021/12/29Browse. 
  32. ^ Those after amendment by the Act on the Development of Related Laws Accompanying the Enforcement of the Child and Family Affairs Agency Establishment Law
  33. ^ "[Original]" Children's Agency "government basic policy draft revealed". ANN News / Tele morning news / ABEMA Morning (ANN / TV Asahi Corporation/ AbemaTV Co., Ltd.). (November 2021, 11). https://news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_politics/articles/000236540.html 2021/12/29Browse. 
  34. ^ "[Details] What kind of organization is the "Children's Family Agency" that you have seen?". NHK (September 2021, 12). 2021/12/21Browse.

Related item


YoungerWhat is (shoshika)?

  1. Decreasing the number of births
  2. Birth rateEspecially the level ofPopulation replacement levelDecreased to: (hence, different from mere fertility decline)
  3. Declining proportion of children (as a synonym for aging)
  4. Decreasing the number of children

It depends on the context.

In the long runpopulationIs maintained stablyTotal fertility rate(The number of children a woman gives birth to in her lifetime)Population replacement levelIt is called (Replacement-level fertility).United NationsEstimates the population replacement level of developed countries to be 2.1[1]..In demography, the declining birthrate means that the total fertility rate has been below the population replacement level for a considerable period of time.[Annotation 1].

Economic developmentとStandard of livingWith the improvement ofBirth rateとmortality rateChanges in the tendency from high birth rate to high production rate, low production rate, and low production rate.Demographic transitionIs called.At the time of fertility and low deathPopulation explosionIt has been known for a long time that this occurs, and research has been advanced.In Japan, population explosions occurred twice, in the first half of the Edo period (about 3 times) and after the Meiji era (about 4 times).[2].

A society with low birthrate and low death was once thought to be a stable population, but since the birth rate plummeted in Western countries in the 1970s, the futurePopulation declineHas come to be predicted.In many developed countries, mortality rates have stopped declining, while fertility rates have continued to decline, and in 1980.HungaryHas entered the process of population decline.

Causes of the past declining birthrate

Before 1950

Until the first half of the 20th centuryInfectionSince no preventive or curative method has been established forMaternal mortality rate-Perinatal mortality rate-Neonatal mortality-Infant mortality-Infant mortality・ All were extremely high.AlsoLifestyle-related diseasesNo preventive or curative method has been established.OrganSubstitute for dysfunctionArtificial organ,Organ transplantationMedical technology was not established either.In such a social situation, life expectancy is limited to around 50 years old, and women who are healthy and have the ability to give birth to pregnancy to compensate for the high mortality rate will give birth as long as they can give birth from the late teens to the 10s. It was a prolific and prolific society.Teen birthAlsoElderly birthWas more real than it is today in the early 21st century.

After 1950

In the second half of the 20th centuryindustryとEconomyDevelopment,政府With increased revenue社会 保障Increased spending,科学とTechnologyImprovement,Medical scienceとmedical technologyAs a result of the improvement, the prevention and treatment methods for infectious diseases have been established, and the maternal mortality rate, perinatal mortality rate, newborn mortality rate, infant mortality rate, infant mortality rate, and adult mortality rate have all decreased significantly. did[3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]..In addition, preventive and therapeutic methods for lifestyle-related diseases and medical techniques for artificial organs and organ transplants have been established, so life expectancy has increased significantly.[11]On the other hand, on the contrary, the total fertility rate has dropped significantly.[12], The society of high birth rate and high death rate has changed to the society of low birth rate and low death rate.

Since the latter half of the 20th century, the establishment of such medical technology has beenDeveloped countrynot onlyDeveloping countriesAlsoUnderdeveloped countryAlso popularized.Most developed countriesTotal fertility rateIs less than two, most developing countries have less than two or two, and even underdeveloped countries are lower than developed countries in the first half of the 2th century.[13].

Dissemination and outlawing of abortion

  • Margaret Sanger --Advocated birth control in 1914 (Taisho 3).
  • Eugenic protection law --Promulgated in 1948 (Showa 23).The following year's revision will legalize "abortion for financial reasons".

Progress of urbanization

In the worldUrbanizationThe increase in rates is also considered to be one of the major factors.Urban residents tend to have fewer children than rural residents[14][15]..Urban residents do not need children as a farm labor force, and children's rooms are expensive due to high real estate prices in cities.Therefore, the purchase of own homes is often in the suburbs, and long-distance commuting due to this makes it difficult to work together.

Girls' education

AustriaAccording to demographer Wolfgang Lutz, girls' education is the number one factor in determining fertility.[16]..Lutz says that by simply introducing a new variable in the UN population forecasting model to improve girls' education rates, the world population forecast for 2100 has dropped dramatically from 109 billion to 80-90 billion.[16].

According to a paper on the world population published in Lancet on July 2020, 7, if girls' education becomes widespread and girls receive childbirth-related public health services, the number of children born per woman Analyzing that the number will be less than 14, the UN predicts that the world population will be 1 billion in 1.5.[17]..It has been shown that there is a negative correlation between the CCF50 (completed cohort fertility at age 50 years) index used in the analysis and the number of years of education for girls.[17].


Some governments have a policy to promote the declining birthrate.For example in Chinaone child policySuch.The one-child policy is2016/Obsolete.

In Japan as well, at the "1974st Japan Population Conference" (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) held in July 7, the overpopulation in Japan was regarded as a problem, and a declaration was made that "up to two children". broth[18][19]Recommended population control.

late marriage

Unmarried-late marriageThere is also an aspect that the progress of the declining birthrate is more strongly affecting the declining birthrate.Females have the largest eggs during the embryonic period and then decline.For this reason, female fertility (fertility) gradually declines until about 32 years old, and drops sharply after 37 years old, similar to the decrease in the number of eggs.Also, men's fertility declines with age.[20]..In recent Western studies, older men have become older.spermThe quality of the child also deteriorates, reducing the chances of having a child.Chromosomal abnormalityIs more likely to occur[Annotation 2]It is also reported that[21]..Due to the problem of infertility in the second child, according to a survey by a magazine company, more than 6% of those who have experienced infertility treatment when they were the second child, half of them were the first infertility treatment in the second child. Even if you are in a state and want a child and have no problems with your first pregnancy, you may have problems with aging and sexlessness that make it difficult to get pregnant, so it is also possible to understand the reproductive age early for lifelong design. is important[22]..According to the Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology, the number of children born in 2017 by in vitro fertilization for infertility treatment is about 16 in 1 children born in this year.[23], There is a current situation where not everyone gets pregnant naturally.

Decrease in the number of children per family and focus on the number of children

There is also a discourse that the change in the lifestyle of Japanese families after 1945 is the declining birthrate.From 1921 to 1925, the generation that gave birth after the war, the number of children born from the cohort began to be concentrated on two to three, especially two, and after 2, "two children" Has come to occupy the majority.

Since then, this tendency has continued for half a century, and has become established by the first demographic transition of the "two-child family," which became the standard after the war.The reason for this decrease in the number of children was that many Japanese from the prewar period to the early postwar period were engaged in agriculture, forestry and fishing and self-employment and were valuable as a supplementary labor force for children. It is said that the value of power has declined.The existence of unmarried people who continue to stay at their parents' homes for the current economic reasons and the high rate of unmarried people in cities tend to be the same in Japan in the past, but in the first place, the era when "all-married, around two children" was established. It is rare in history, and it has been pointed out that "a society in which the population begins to decline unless a state close to marriage is maintained".[24].

Excessive praise of "family"

Of a family anthropologistEmmanuel ToddSays that if you try to praise the "family" and make the family bear everything, it will become a burden and the unmarriage and the declining birthrate will progress.[25].


According to the data released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the average age of first marriage was 50 years for women and 1975 years for men in 24.7, but it was 27.0 years for women in 27. , Males are 2015 years old, and late marriage is progressing, especially for females.[26][27]..In addition, in the transition of the distribution of first-married people by age, both men and women have changed from an inverted U-shaped curve with mountains in their late 20s to a gentle curve dispersed to higher ages, and further, the curve for women has changed. Not only is it slowing down, but the peak age is also rising.[27].

In Japan, the final average number of children born to a couple has been declining gradually since 1972 in 2.20, but has remained at about 2.Total fertility rateHas been below 1993 since 1.50, and the increase in unmarried people is considered to have a major impact on the declining birthrate.[28][29]..As a background to the increase in unmarried peopleMarriageThere is a view that women's old values ​​(inherited from their parents' generation) and men's lack of life and financial independence and communication skills in[29].

Analysis of the high unmarried rate of low-income earners

Percentage of spouses and children (%)[30]
Annual income / age20-24 years25-29 years30-34 years35-39 years
Up to 99 10,000 yen0.70.610.812.8
100-199 million yen2.37.919.130.0
200-299 million yen4.211.425.237.9
300-499 million yen7.818.937.851.1
500-699 million yen8.228.950.562.4
700 yen or more10.327.152.070.7

Small Business AdministrationThe "ratio of spouses and children" is generally higher in the high-income group, and the unmarried rate tends to increase as the income decreases.Low income OfPart-time workerIncrease inmarriage率、Birth rateWill lead to a decline in the number of people. "In reality, the percentage of unmarried male regular workers in their 30s is 30.7%, while that of non-regular workers is 75.6%.[31]..However, for women, regular employment is 22.1% and non-regular employment is 8.3%, and in the case of women, the higher the annual income, the higher the unmarried rate.Both men and women tend to seek "similar marriage" with similar educational background and income, but there is an analysis that the matching between low-income men and high-income women does not go well and they remain unmarried.[32].

Because the out-of-marriage birth rate is 2.11% (OECD2009) in Japan, which is lower than in other countries.[33], The low marriage rate tends to affect the birth rate.

However, historically, at the end of the Edo period, 5% of Edo men were unmarried.[34]. Also1980/Marriage and fertility rates were higher than they were in the 1980s, even though the proportion of the low-income population was not much different than it is now.It is also thought that the diversification of lifestyles, lifestyles and values ​​has led low-income earners to avoid cost-conscious marriages.

Unmarried women by improving their level of hope as they become more educated and improve their economic power

in Japan1947/-1949/3 years (1944/-1946/There are no statistics for the three years due to the intensification of the war and the turmoil after the war). Due to special social conditions, the total fertility rate was in the 3s, but then declined to 4, the first in history in 16, 1961 years after the end of World War II.[12]。1963年以降は、丙午である1966年(1.58人)を除いて、1974年まで2人台であったが、1975年に1.91人と再び1人台を記録して以降2013年まで1人台が継続されている[35].

合計特殊出生率の算出対象である15-49歳は、1961年では1912-1946年生まれ、1975年では1926-1960年生まれであり、女性の大学進学率は1940年生まれでは10%未満、1950年生まれでは10%台後半、1960年生まれでは30%台前半、1970年生まれでは30%台後半であり[36][37]As a whole, postwar women are becoming more highly educated and have a declining birthrate at the same time.

The total fertility rate of 2.1, which is required to stabilize the population, has been below the level of 1975 since 2022, and as of 1.4, it is as low as 20.Over the last 20 years, the working population between the ages of 64 and 1000 has declined by about 2022 million. As of 2.32, the desired number of children for married couples is 2.01, and the planned number of children is 2015, which is 1.94 in 40, a decrease of only 1975 points from 0.25, XNUMX years ago. It is only half of the decline in the birth rate during this period.in short,The cause of Japan's declining birthrate is the impact of a decline in the marriage rate and an increase in the number of unmarried people.Is[38].

It has been thought that the decline in the birth rate is mainly due to the late marriage of women, based on the fact that 9% of unmarried women answered that they intend to get married someday.However, women's desire to marry is conditional on "if there is a good partner", and that condition is mainly due to the fact that women are becoming more and more unmarried as their educational background and economic power improve year by year. The average age of first marriage for women in 2020 has reached 29.4, and in Tokyo it is over 30.The government's measures against the declining birthrate are all interests for married women, and there are few measures to encourage the increase in childbirth of these unmarried women.[38].

History shows the problem of declining birthrate (case of ancient Rome)

The problem of declining birthrateAncient Roman eraThere was also.AugustusIn 18 BC[39]Was enforced.Unlike modern thinking, it was not about the welfare of married women, but rather about suffering various disadvantages if they were not married.That is, in the case of a woman, she loses heritage inheritance rights to heritage when she is single and has no children at the age of 50, an additional 5.SestertiusSingle women who cannot have assets of (currently about 700 million yen) or more, and also have assets of 2 Sestertius (currently about 280 million yen) or more, earn annual income regardless of age. 1% of was collected.Even in the case of men, if they get a key position such as a senator, they give preferential treatment to married people, and a system was created in which the more children there are, the faster the career advancement.For that reason, some people even tried to get through the eyes of the law by disguising themselves as a prostitute.

Situation of declining birthrate in each country

Country / regionTotal fertility rate(2019)[40]
Republic of China flag Republic of China1.21Canadian flag Canada1.56French flag France1.97
Portugal flag Portugal1.24Latvian flag ãƒ©ãƒˆãƒ“ã‚¢1.57New Zealand flag New Zealand1.97
Singapore flag Singapore1.26Bulgarian flag Bulgaria1.58Irish flag Ireland1.98
Polish flag Poland1.29Luxembourg flag Luxembourg1.59Bangladesh flag ãƒãƒ³ã‚°ãƒ©ãƒ‡ã‚·ãƒ¥2.06
Hong Kong flag Hong Kong1.32Flag of the People's Republic of China People's Republic of China1.63Nepal flag ãƒ パ ー ル2.08
Greek flag Greece1.32Flag of Slovenia ã‚¹ãƒ­ãƒ™ãƒ‹ã‚¢1.63Indian flag India2.30
Republic of Korea flag South Korea1.32Estonia flag ã‚¨ã‚¹ãƒˆãƒ‹ã‚¢1.65Indonesian flag Indonesia2.32
Cyprus flag Cyprus1.33Lithuanian flag ãƒªãƒˆã‚¢ãƒ‹ã‚¢1.66South African flag Republic of South Africa2.41
Hungarian flag Hungary1.39Brazilian flag Brazil1.70Saudi arabia flag Saudi Arabia2.48
Spanish flag Spain1.39Russian flag Russia1.75Cambodia flag Cambodia2.52
Croatian flag Croatia1.44Dutch flag  Netherlands1.75Philippines flag ãƒ•ã‚£ãƒªãƒ”ン2.88
Kingdom of Thailand flag Thailand1.45Danish flag Denmark1.76Israeli flag Israel2.92
Flag of Slovakia Eur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.eu1.46Chilean flag ãƒãƒª1.76Egyptian flag Egypt3.15
Malta flag Malta1.47Finnish flag Finland1.78Papua New Guinea flag ãƒ‘ ュ ュ ニ ニ3.58
German flag Germany1.47Belgian flag Belgium1.79Palestinian flag Eur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.eu3.91
Japanese flag Japan1.47Norway flag Norway1.82Iraqi flag (I.e.4.26
Italian flag Italy1.49Australian flag Australia1.83Afghanistan flag ã‚¢ãƒ•ã‚¬ãƒ‹ã‚¹ã‚¿ãƒ³4.41
Austrian flag Austria1.51British flag United Kingdom1.87Sudan flag ã‚¹ãƒ¼ãƒ€ãƒ³4.43
Romanian flag ãƒ«ãƒ¼ãƒžãƒ‹ã‚¢1.54United States flag The United States of America1.88Uganda flag Eur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.eu5.45
Swiss flag Switzerland1.54Democratic People's Republic of Korea flag DPR Korea1.89Flag of Somalia Eur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.eu6.12
Czech flag Czech Republic1.56Swedish flag Sweden1.90Niger flag ãƒ‹ ジ ェ ー ル7.15

WesternDeveloped countriesIs one of the first regions in the world to experience a declining birthrate.EuropeThe demographic transition was over before the war,The United States of AmericaThen in the late 1950sBaby boomHappened.

In the 1960s, the total fertility rate was higher in Europe and the United States than in Japan, but in the 1970s there was a sharp decline in contrast to Japan's gradual decline, and in the early 1980s it reached almost the same level as Japan.However, since immigrants were accepted in Europe and the United States, this did not directly lead to population decline.

Birth rates continued to decline in many countries until the mid-1980s, but from the latter half of the 1980s, more countries have turned slightly or leveled off.The United States and Sweden recovered their population replacement levels in 1990, but then declined again.In many countries, recovery of the birth rate is not a policy goal, and childcare support is provided as a child / family policy.

Southern EuropeThen, the total fertility rate dropped sharply from the latter half of the 1970s,Italy-SpainThe birth rate was as low as 1.1 units.It seems that the cause is that they have strong traditional values ​​and could not cope with the rapid progress of women's social advancement and higher education. Since the latter half of the 1990s, the birth rate has picked up in some countries due to improvements in the legal system and changes in normative consciousness.[41].

Eastern Europe・OldUSSRThe birth rate was originally low due to the planned population control policy and the early advancement of women into society.In addition, since the 1980s, the mortality rate has risen due to social turmoil such as economic stagnation and the collapse of the communist system, and many countries have entered the process of population decline during the 20th century.

South Korea,Taiwan,Hong Kong,SingaporeSuch asNIESThen, the birth rate dropped sharply in the 1960s and 1970s, and the rapid declining birthrate, which exceeds that of Japan, has become a problem. The fertility rate of each country in 2003 was 0.94 in Hong Kong, 1.24 in Taiwan, 1.25 in Singapore and 1.18 in South Korea.[42].家族Changes in composition, social advancement of women (wage workers), highEducational HistoryByEducationThe same causes as in Japan have been pointed out, such as soaring costs.

Chugoku,ThailandBut the fertility rate is below the population replacement level.manyAsiaIn many countries, the fertility rate is higher than the population replacement level, but it is on a downward trend.

In addition, it has been pointed out that there are countries (Nigeria, South Korea, etc.) whose birth rate statistics differ greatly depending on the source.The World Fact BookAll research institutes, including, have made their own amendments.

The United States of America

The United States of AmericaThen,1985/Since then, the birth rate has started to rise,1990/Or laterthe 2000sThe total fertility rate was flat at around 2.0 until the middle of the year, but has decreased since then to around 1.8.[43]. this isHispanicThis is because the birth rate of the people of the descent is high (2004 in 2.82, 2017 in 2.01).[44][45]..Also in 2017, the fertility rate of all races, not just the originally low non-Hispanic whites and Asians, fell below the replacement level.

However, on the other hand, the birth rate of non-Hispanic whites () is also high.the 2000sWas around 1.85 (2004 in 1.85), but decreased after 2010 and was 2017 in 1.67.[44][45][46]..Even if it is below the population replacement level, Japan / Europe and someAsian(NikkeiEtc.), but it is on a downward trend.

Also, a black man who was once very expensive (African American) Is the birth ratethe 1970sSince then, it has fallen sharply and is approaching the level of Caucasians and Asians (2017 in 1.82).[45]..In the United States, there are almost no childbirth and childcare support systems that are directly involved as in European countries, and there are many cases where private companies, NPOs, foundations, etc. are basically responding to measures against the declining birthrate.

Of the American women aged 40 to 44, the percentage of women without children was 2014% as of June 6, up from 15.3% in 2012 for late marriage and late birth of women (and their partners). With the declining birthrate, the birthrate is declining.[47].

United Kingdom

United Kingdom Thethe 1960sBirth rate drops from the second halfthe 1990sUntil the latter half, it was around 1.6 people.Tony BlairLabor PartyAfter the administration, improvement of the working environment including encouragement of flexible systemMargaret ThatcherConservative partyReconstruction of the collapse of public education that occurred under the administration (specifically, increased budget allocation and educational support by NPOs) and free childbirth for foreigners were carried out.

as a result2000/Since then, the birth rate in the UK has picked up,2005/It recovered to 1.79 people. It is not a short-term declining birthrate solution policy that focuses only on financial support as in Sweden in the early 1990s, but an individual by rebuilding a labor system that makes it easier for both parents to raise children and recovering the economy. The fact that the birth rate has risen as a result of a comprehensive and long-term childbirth and childcare support policy that combines an increase in income is currently highly evaluated both at home and abroad.


FranceFor a long time, the birth rate was relatively high among European countries,the 1980sAfter that, it drops rapidly1995/The number dropped to a record low of 1.65.After that, the government set the goal of improving the birth rate to the population replacement level of 2.07, and established various welfare systems and tax systems for childbirth and childcare incentives.[48].

Introducing a "childcare mom system" that makes it possible for women to balance work and childcare, a "N-minute N-tax system" that lowers the taxation as the number of children increases, and measures to raise childcare allowances to the highest level in developed countries, 20 years old. , The discount system for the whole family at each public transportation and museum is famous.France's fertility rate, which declined as a result, recovered to Europe's highest level of 2006 in 2.01.[48]But,2019/Is already on the decline.


SwedenThen the birth rate isthe 1980sThe number dropped to the 1.6 level, and it quickly became a social problem.Therefore, support for women's social advancement and introduction of various allowances to make it easier for low-income earners to give birth and raise children have been promoted.At the same time, the legal system was revised to give children born out of wedlock (children born to unmarried couples) the same legal status as illegitimate children.as a result,the 1990sIn the first half, Sweden's fertility rate exceeded two, reaching the highest level in developed countries.During this period, many developed countries referred to this Swedish model as a successful country for the recovery of fertility.

But in the late 1990s社会 保障Due to the financial deterioration caused by the high cost, the government has adopted a policy to allow partial abolition or reduction of various allowances and lengthening of working hours as part of administrative and financial reforms.As a result, Sweden's fertility rate plummeted to 2000 in 1.50.After that, as in the United Kingdom, the labor system was drastically revised to make it easier for both men and women to raise children, and the cost of public education was further reduced. As of 2005, the birth rate recovered to 1.77.In 2006, the birth rate was 1.85 and the number of births was 10, which are the highest levels in about 6000 years.


GermanyHowever, as of 2005, the birth rate is 1.34, which is quite low in the world.Older than the East-West SchismWest GermanyOn the side, the birthrate is declining due to economic stability and higher education costs.1990/By this time, it was already well below the population replacement level in both east and west.

After that, the German government introduced various educational allowances to maintain the population.babysitterWe promoted public support for the childcare industry and a significant increase in educational expenses.However, in Germany, due to the shortage of nursery schools, the short period of allowance payment, and social unrest due to the long recession, the number of people has been decreasing slightly after peaking at 2000 in 1.41.The number of births also fell below the 2005 mark in 70, and no major results have been achieved since then.

Germany is already a depopulating society in which about 10 to 15 people are in a state of natural decline every year, and in 2005 there was a natural decline of about 14.4.If this trend continues, it is expected that the total population will decrease by about 2050 million by 1000.Also in GermanyEuropeAlthough it is one of the leading immigrant countries and nations that accept foreign workers, the birthrate of immigrants and foreign workers is also declining, and the presence of immigrants in Germany has little effect on the birth rate.However, in 2016, when many refugees were accepted, it was 1.59, the highest level in 43 years.[49].

Excellent, not just population declineEngineerThere are estimates that the number will decrease in large numbers, and many Germans have a sense of crisis in this situation.2014/ OfEuropean Parliament electionsIn Germany, political parties that support immigrants (with the proviso that they have a high level of skill) have increased their support, while political parties that have argued against immigration have increased their support in many countries.[50].


ItalyThe birth rate dropped sharply from the latter half of the 1970s, and by the 1990s it was already one of the world's declining birthrates.In the case of Italy, which is a little different from other countries, there are significant regional disparities (differences between the economically rich and populous northern part and the southern part where the population continues to decline and the industry is scarce), the social security system for childbirth and childcare is inadequate, and women's The background was quite individual problems such as the progress of nuclear family formation due to social advancement and the strength of the role awareness of men and women based on deep-rooted traditional values.

Under these circumstancesSilvio BerlusconiThe administration introduced a lump-sum payment (childbirth bonus) for childbirth, expanded scholarships at public educational institutions, and supported the medical industry.As a result, the fertility rate recovered to 2005 in 1.33, but the fertility rate itself remains at a fairly low level worldwide.In Southern and Eastern Europe, including Italy, there are strong conservative values ​​such as role awareness in the homes of men and women.Catholic ThedivorceIs prohibited, so it is difficult to increase the number of births.


NetherlandsBut from the 1970s to the 1980s, the fertility rate dropped sharply, dropping to a record low of 1995 in 1.53.Therefore, the government tried a number of measures to rebuild a society where it is easy to raise children.As in Scandinavia, there are widely known policies that allow families and children to be raised without legal marriage.

Specifically, it is called the "registered partner system," and is known as a traditional liberal state, the Netherlands, such as adopting children and allowing parents of the same sex to raise children.Also the first in the worldWork sharing,Equal pay for equal workWith the introduction of the system, even part-time workers are now recognized with the same social status and rights as full-time workers.This led to easier household maintenance and increased time spent at home, which in turn became a major driving force for the recovery of the fertility rate.

Also in the NetherlandsCitizenshipRegardless of this, families with children under the age of 18 can choose between tax incentives and various childcare allowances.Eastern EuropeSystemIndonesia(Former colonial) system, South AmericaEur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.euThe high fertility rate of the former inhabitants (mainly Caucasians) as well as the lineage is maintained. Since 2000, the birth rate in the Netherlands has been 1.73-1.75, and it is attracting attention as a country that is relatively easy to raise children among European countries.[51].


RussiaThen.Collapse of the Soviet Unionrear,Abortion,divorceIn 1992, the population declined the earliest in major countries due to the decrease in the birth rate due to the increase in the number of people, the increase in the mortality rate due to the turmoil in the social situation, and the outflow of the population due to migration to other countries.Since then, the natural population has continued to decline,Vladimir Putin"The population of 70 is declining annually," the president said in a speech.

Russia's population was 2001 million in 1, but as of 4600 it is 2009 million.President Putin predicted that "by 1, there will be almost 4200 million people."On the other hand, against the backdrop of the resource bubble and the construction of factories with Western capital.economic growthIs remarkablyBRICsIt is said that GDP continued to increase both in the nation as a whole and per capita, but GDP decreased from 1 due to the end of soaring oil prices and economic sanctions associated with the annexation of Crimea.[52].

The number of births, which was over 200 million in the Soviet era, decreased to 1999 million in 121. Since President Putin took office in 2000, President Putin has taken measures against the declining birthrate, and in 2006 he launched a bold measure against the declining birthrate. A mother who gave birth to her second child after 2007 will be provided with a limited use fund of 3 rubles after the child turns 25 years old (the use of 25 rubles is to purchase or remodel her own home). , Education, or pension fund).In addition, President Putin also raised children's allowances and wage guarantees during maternity leave.Ulyanovsk OblastSince 2007, the governor has established "Family Planning Day" on September 9, and nine months after fertilization on "Family Planning Day".Russian Independence AnniversaryIt is said that a prize will be given to the mother who gave birth on June 6th.[53].

Due to these measures, the number of births decreased to 1999 million in 121 and increased to 2008 million in 171. The number of births peaked at 2003 in 79 and reached 2008 in 10. It decreased to and improved.The total fertility rate is1999/It rose after recording a minimum of 1.16.

However, the population of childbearing age is declining[54]The number of births decreased again due to the end of baby boomers, and the number of births in 2018 was 160.4 million. The fertility rate in 2019 was 1.5[55][56].

In 2020, Russia's population was 51, the largest decrease in 15 years.Russia's population has continued to decline, except that it increased in 2014, when the unilateral Crimean Peninsula annexation increased.[57].

Russia's declining birthrateRussian armyIs also influencing.In russiaConscription systemHowever, draft evasion is widespread among young people, and even the military constant cannot be maintained due to the declining birthrate.The Russian army is shifting from a conscription system on the verge of bankruptcy to a volunteer system[58].


According to a 2013 survey by the National Bureau of Statistics, more than 45 million births have been reported each year for the past 100 years, but in 2012 it was less than 80.[59].


As for the trend of the fertility rate, Singapore's fertility rate, which had been high since 1985, has been on a downward trend and is rapidly advancing. Even after breaking the population replacement level in 1975, it has continued to decline, reaching the current low fertility rate.

In terms of the cause, the problem of declining birthrate in Singapore[60]Saw, Swee -Hook, a research fellow at the Southeast Asian Institute, a leading figure in Singapore's population policy at the beginning of Singapore's history, describes the causes and background of Singapore's declining birthrate (Saw). , 1965), there are three causes of the declining birthrate in Singapore: late marriage of women and a decrease in married women, the influence of national and private population control policies, and legalization of population abortion and contraceptive surgery.

There is a government-run marriage hunting support service (SDN)[61].

South Korea

KoreanTotal fertility rate[62][63]

South Koreaでは1960年頃6.0人,1970年頃に4.53人だった出生率が、経済発展と同時に急落した。1987年に1.53人で最低水準を記録した後 1992年には1.76人を記録して再び下落し始めた。 2000年に出生率が上昇して1.47人を記録したが、2001年から下落反転して1.31を記録し 2002年には1.17人、2003年には1.18人と推移した[62]..At first, the government, which had taken measures to curb childbirth for fear of increasing unemployment due to the rapid increase in the population, will change its stance in the 21st century to curb the rapid declining birthrate.Specific examples include the establishment of the Ministry of Child and Family Affairs in 2005, the establishment of the Headquarters for Countermeasures against the Declining Birthrate under the direct control of the President, and the introduction of allowances for the purpose of supporting childbirth.

However, in South Korea, as in other developed East Asian regions (Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, etc.), the progress of late marriage and the increase in unmarried women due to the social advancement of women, andsocial welfareThe system is not booting properly.In addition, Korean private education costsOECDWith the highest level of member countries, the increasing burden on families due to the fierce examination war and higher education has pushed South Korea into a country with a further declining birthrate.

The birth rate in 2005 dropped to 1.08, which is virtually the lowest level in the world, and it can be said that South Korea's measures against the declining birthrate are currently in a slump.[62]..In addition, due to economic growth in South Korea, late marriage and families without children have become serious due to employment insecurity following the 1997 IMF currency crisis, which has plagued the political and business world.[64].

In 2005, 34 casesAbortionThis is 78% of newborn babies in South Korea.2009/A meeting presided over by Cheong Wa Dae announced that it would crack down on abortion as one of the measures to deal with the decline in the birth rate.Women's groups are against this[65].

In 2006Oxford UniversityDemocratic professor David Coleman predicts that "Korea will be the world's first nation with a declining birthrate and disappearing"[66].

In 2018, we are considering introducing a `` declining birthrate tax'' to secure financial resources for measures against the declining birthrate, such as childbirth and childcare allowances.[67].

According to the 2018 Birth Statistics released by the Korea Statistical Office on August 8, 22, the total fertility rate in South Korea reached a record low of 2017 and became the lowest among OECD member countries.[68].

The total fertility rate for 2019 announced in 2018 was 0.98, the lowest in the world and the first total fertility rate in history to be less than 1.[69].. The total fertility rate in Seoul from July to September 2019 was 7, falling below 9 for the first time in the world.[70].

Korean National AssemblyAccording to the survey, the worst prediction is that the Korean population will be extinct by 2750 if no measures are taken against the declining birthrate.[71].

It is expected to enter a depopulating society after peaking at 2019 million in 5165.[72].. According to the population estimate for March 2019, the ratio of elderly people aged 3 and over to the total population will be 2065%, which is the highest in the world in 65, and the total population in 46 is predicted to decrease to 2067 million, which is the level of 1972. Are[73].. The total fertility rate in 2019 fell to 0.92, setting a new record low.[74].. In 2020, the population will finally decline for the first time, and the birth rate will reach a record low of 0.84.[75][76].. 2021 recorded 0.81 which is even lower than the previous year[77].

north korea

Although the national statistics on the total fertility rate of North Korea have not been disclosed to the United Nations, the declining birthrate is progressing.金正恩Head of stateAdmits[78].


ChugokuThen, it is a population control policyOne-child policyWas started in 1979, and together with "late marriage," "late birth," "low birth (low birth)," "rare (open time for the first and second people)," and "Yusei (let's give birth to excellent human resources)." 1sloganWas raised[79]..This policyPopulation pyramidIt affects the population balance by age group, and it is estimated that the population aged 2050 and over will exceed 65 million as of 4, based on future trends.[79]..This policy distorts the birth composition ratio of 119: 100 for men and women because many families want boys.[79]..It has also led to a decrease in the population under the age of 14, which is expected to become a future labor force.

United NationsAccording to the Ministry of Population, China's working-age population (15-59 years old) peaked around 2015 (67.6%) and declined sharply from around 2020 to 2050% in 50.0 and 2100% in 46.9. It is predicted that the birthrate will decrease to the point where the birthrate is declining and the population is aging.[80]..China's population peaks at 2030 billion around 14 and is estimated to decline to 6000 billion by 2100.[80]..In reality, the working-age population peaked in 2013 and is declining.[81].

When the growth of the total population stops, the ratio of the elderly population aged 65 and over will increase dramatically, so the "XNUMX" problem (XNUMX Family structure Elderly 赡 养 Problem), In the future, there is concern about the arrival of a serious social structure in which one child takes care of two parents and also supports four grandparents and eight great-grandparents.[79].

The policy of the birth plan has been changed in view of the super-aging society that is expected to visit in the future, and the one-child policy will be abolished in 2016.[82]And even the second child was allowed.However, the increase in the number of births is the government's expectation.[83]Has not arrived at[84]..Taiwan and Hong Kong also have a declining birthrate that surpasses that of China.[85][86].

In 2021, the cause of the declining birthrate responded to the enthusiasm for educationCram schoolAnnounced regulations on cram schools for students in compulsory education because the rush of education has led to soaring educational costs and young people are hesitant to give birth to children.[87]..From now on, new openings will not be approved, existing cram schools will be registered as non-profit organizations, and fees will have to comply with government standards.[87][88].

China isone child policyIt was an unexpectedly long time when no one knew exactly how many children were born during the application period.For this reason, it continues to be difficult to apply measures against the declining birthrate to all children.There are still many cases where many families are aiming for Olympic gold medals and international competitions.


The Government of Japan stated in the 16 White Paper on the Declining Birthrate that "Total fertility rateIs well below the population replacement level and the number of children[Annotation 3] Senior citizens"Society that is less than the population (population over 65 years old)"Society with a declining birthrateIs defined as[89]..Japan became a society with a declining birthrate in 1997 (Heisei 9).Japan's population replacement level is estimated to be 2.08, but Japan's fertility rate has been below 1974 since 49 (Showa 2.08), and Japan's population replacement level is estimated to be XNUMX.Total populationIn 2005 (Heisei 17)After the warNaturally decreased for the first time[90].. The fertility rate in 2019 was 1.36[91].

National Institute of Population and Social Security ResearchAccording to the forecast (as of 2017), the total population of Japan will decrease to 2065 million in 8808, but the birth rate will remain at a low level of 1.39 and will not recover.[92][93][94].

In 2019, the Japanese population (Japanese nationals) decreased by 48.on the other hand,ForeignerHas increased by about 20, and the decline in the total population living in Japan has been gradual.[95][96].


West Japan or Central Japan occupy all of the 22nd place in the youth population ratio.Especially in the Kyushu-Okinawa region, 10 prefectures are concentrated in the top 7 and all prefectures are above the national average.In addition, Shiga prefecture, Aichi prefecture, and Hiroshima prefecture are relatively high.On the other hand, in eastern Japan, all prefectures are below the national average, and in particular, each prefecture in the Tohoku region of Hokkaido and Tokyo are sunk to the bottom.

Impact of declining birthrate

The declining birthrate has the following adverse effects.

  • JapaneseWorking-age populationIn 1995 (Heisei 7), the number reached 8717 million, and has decreased since then.Despite the continued rise in the employment rate of women and the elderly, the working-age population also peaked (1998 million) in 10 (6793) and has been declining since then, and the working-age population (15-64). The increase in the ratio of the elderly population (65 years old and over) to the age) is the pension, etc.社会 保障Make it difficult to maintain the system.
  • Population declineとCapital AreaConcentration in concentration (Tokyo extreme concentration),Depopulated areaWill increase and bring about the devastation of local cities.Hiroya MasudayuanMinister of Internal Affairs and CommunicationsIs a private research institute chaired byJapan Policy CouncilThe subcommittee on the issue of population decline was held in 896 municipalities in Japan.2040/In addition, young women of childbearing age2010/It is estimated that it will be reduced to less than half of the time[98].. theseLocal governmentIt is pointed out that it will be difficult to maintain social security and secure employment, and there is a high possibility that the local government itself will disappear (called a "potential city").[99].

Countermeasures to the falling birthrate

For measures against the declining birthrate

  1. Expansion of childcare leave system
  2. Support for reemployment after childbirth
  3. Expansion of childcare facilities
  4. Marriage support
  5. Expansion of various benefit systems to support childbirth and childcare
  6. ,Tax on childlessness,Children's allowance
  7. Development of reemployment system for the elderly (measures against the declining birthrate "society")
  8. Acceptance of foreign workers (immigrants) (Measures for the declining birthrate "society" mainly in Europe)

and so on[100].

Public spending on childcare and late marriage / unmarried

AustraliaPublic spending on families and children has increased almost every year since the 1980s and in Japan since the 1990s, but the birth rate has continued to decline in both cases.[101]..The cause of the declining birthrate in Japan is due to unmarried people and late marriage.Late birthAnd non-productive[27].. As of 2020, the number of pregnancy reports nationwide in Corona Sickness is more than 3% lower than the same period of the previous year until July after May when pregnant people are notified around March when anxiety about infection increased. Births could drop below 5 next year[102]..It is difficult to strictly quantify the relationship between individual measures and the birth rate, and it is not possible to draw a clear conclusion from comprehensive observations as to whether high welfare will improve the declining birthrate.[103].

Birth rate was recovering due to the acceptance of immigrants from Sweden and France in Europe until 2010.[48][104].


SwedenThen, since the birth rate recovered sharply in the latter half of the 1980s, it is said to be a successful example of measures against the declining birthrate.[105], In Japan, attention is being paid to full social support for childbirth and childcare.[106]..However, as mentioned earlier, Sweden has abandoned the traditional costly fertility improvement measures and is reforming with a longer-term British model.

As will be described later, immigrant acceptance is used for the declining birthrate and aging population.


Education is free from elementary school to university[107], University students are paid a monthly living allowance of about 7 yen.This is to avoid situations where college students have no choice but to neglect their studies due to part-time jobs.From the perspective that children are a property of society, there are no voices saying that child allowances are a waste of money.This child allowance can make up for the cost of a Danish nursery or kindergarten, which requires some expense.However, the current fertility rate is 1.76.[108]And is entering the declining pace again.

Not only can men and women take 56 weeks of maternity and childcare leave, but they are also paid a salary.[107]..The highest tax rate in Denmark is 51.5% including income tax and local tax.[107]..The VAT (value added tax) is 25%.[109].


Japanese govermentPromotes measures aimed at recovering fertility, while declining birthrateAging societyWe are working on the revision of the social security system and the research of economic policy corresponding to the above.

Since September 2003, 9, the Minister of State has been appointed to take measures against the declining birthrate.Detail isMinister for Special Missions, Cabinet Office (in charge of youth development and declining birthrate measures),Minister for Special Missions, Cabinet Office (declining birthrate and gender equality),Minister for Extraordinary Mission, Cabinet Office (in charge of declining birthrate)See.

2000 years,Economic Planning AgencyHeld a "Study Group on the Economy Under Population Decline" to compensate for the downside of the declining birthrate by increasing the employment rate and productivity of women and the elderly, and increasing GDP per capita and society as a whole to improve their lives. Published an interim report that it is fully possible to improve[110].

In 2020, the report of the "Study Group on the Economy Under Population Decline" stated that "there is room for women, the elderly, people with disabilities, and foreigners to solve the labor shortage, and it is necessary to improve labor productivity."[111].

However, the decrease in the number of marriages due to the Covid-2020 epidemic after 19 is not taken into account.

Measures aimed at recovering fertility

Since the 1980s, the number of elderly people has increased in the government and business world.社会 保障The debate that drastic measures should be taken due to concerns that the vitality of society will decline due to the increase in costs and the decrease in the working population has gradually become active.

The government started full-scale measures against the declining birthrate in 1995,ParentingDevelopment of a leave system, for injured and sick childrenNursePromotion of the spread of the leave system,Licensed Nursery SchoolSuch as fulfillment ofChild-rearingWe have been promoting support and strengthening health services for infants and pregnant women.However, the government's measures were not sufficiently effective, and the total fertility rate dropped to 2002 in 1.29.Second World WarFor the first time after that, it dropped to 1.2 units.

The factors behind the decline in the birth rate are an increase in child support such as school fees, long working hours, and higher education.late marriage, Unmarried, fluidization of employment form, overtime work, low wages, obstruction of childbirth due to lack of support for single-parent households / elderly / disabled people, increase in divorce rate, unpaid childcare costs, rapid increase in population after the industrial revolution , It may be related to the constitution that makes it difficult for children to have children.In addition, long working hours are difficult to solve on their own, so some measures are required.

July 2003, 7, by a bipartisan parliamentarianBasic Law for Countermeasures Against a Declining PopulationWas established and came into effect in September of the same year.House of RepresentativesIn the process of deliberation in Japan, the preamble included the sentence "Marriage and childbirth are based on individual decisions" in response to criticism that "it goes against the idea of ​​women's right to self-determination."The Basic Law clarifies the basic principles for responding to a declining birthrate and the responsibilities of the national and local governments, and then prepares an environment where children can be born and raised with peace of mind.

In 2003, the governmentNext-generation upbringing support measures promotion lawHas been established and promulgated, and the environment for childbirth and childcare is being improved.

In 2010, the government created a child allowance with the aim of creating an environment where children can be raised with peace of mind.[112].

Abe CabinetIs working on measures against the declining birthrate and aging population. Early childhood education will be free of charge from October 2019, and a new system will be launched in April 10 that will make tuition fees for universities and high schools virtually free, mainly for students in low-income households.[113][114].

Shinzo AbeThe Prime Minister said, "It's a difficult situation, and the number of births in 2019 fell below 90 for the first time.国難It can be said that this is the situation, "and he is in charge of measures against the declining birthrate.Shinichi EtoMinister of XNUMX million activitiesInstructed to mobilize all measures to achieve the government's "desired fertility rate of 1.8".[115].

Yoshihide Suga CabinetAfter that, the governmentInfertility treatmentWe have decided to expand the support system for the government in 2021, and have begun to consider increasing the subsidy and easing income restrictions.It is reported that the XNUMXth Charter for Measures against the Declining Birthrate, which will be compiled soon, will include "Understanding the actual situation regarding infertility treatment and working to support people suffering from infertility regardless of gender."[116].

Measures to deal with the declining birthrate and aging population

Countermeasures against the declining birthrate being discussed

Accepting immigrants

According to the Statistics Sweden, 19.6% (1,858,000) of the population are humans with foreign roots.This means that you were born abroad or that either of your parents was born abroad.[117].. According to Eurostat, Sweden in 2010 had 113 million (14.3%) foreign births, of which 477,000 (35.7%) were EU nationals and 859,000 (64.3%) were non-EU nationals. be[118][119]..On the contrary, in 2015, the top countries of Swedish nationals born abroad are as follows.[120].

  1. Finnish flag Finland (156,045)
  2. Iraqi flag (I.e. (131,888)
  3. Syrian flag (I.e. (98,216)
  4. Polish flag Poland (85,517)
  5. Iran flag (I.e. (69,067)
  6. Former (67,190)
  7. Flag of Somalia Eur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.eu (60,623)
  8. Bosnia and Herzegovina Flag Eur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.eu (57,705)
  9. German flag Germany (49,586)
  10. Turkish flag Turkey (46,373)

Active acceptance of immigrants is one of the measures to secure the working and consuming population under the declining population as in Sweden.[121]..In Sweden, the total fertility rate is 1.70, while the net migration rate is 6.75, which is an excess inflow, and the population itself continues to grow due to immigration rather than childbirth.West Germany(Currently: Federal Republic of Germany)Second World WarAfter that, it showed tremendous economic growth, but the labor shortage became serious along with it.For this reason, the government has signed bilateral agreements with each country, established "Germany Commissions" in major cities of each country, and conducted labor recruitment activities in cooperation with the institutions of the home countries.InitiallyItaly,Spain,Berlin WallAfter constructionPortugal,ユ ー ゴ ス ラ ビ アWorkers gathered from such reasons, but the most influx wasTurkeyI was from.the firstOil crisisThe economy was hit by.ShimoBaby boomAs it was predicted that the generation's entry into the labor market would begin in earnest, the government would stop recruiting foreign workers in principle and at the same time.Labor market testWas introduced.However, the number of foreigners has been increasing due to the long-term stay of foreign workers in Japan and the invitation of their families.The effects of policies such as the provision of return incentives were only temporary.For this reason, their social integration was planned, but the attempt became difficult due to the economic downturn after the unification of East and West Germany.Unemployment increased in the former East Germany region, andCold WarThe end ofBalkan PeninsulaEconomy from other countries due to worsening situationrefugeesInflowed in large quantities.As a result, the labor market became unstable, domestic sentiment toward foreign workers worsened, and foreign attack cases continued.In unified Germany, as in other developed countries, regulations on the acceptance of unskilled workers are being tightened and workers with specialized skills are being actively recruited. In 2000, in the information and communication field, a green card system was launched to simplify the acquisition of work permits only for those with a certain educational background and skills.In addition, in order to promote these policies, the new immigration law was enforced in 2005, and various systems were put in place.On the other hand, it has signed bilateral agreements targeting Eastern European countries and accepts unskilled workers in a limited way for the purpose of economic assistance. Since 2016, the number of foreign workers from Balkan countries outside the EU has been increasing.People from these countries were allowed to stay in Japan due to humanitarian considerations because the situation was not good, but this was eliminated due to the improvement in the situation and the switch to work qualifications progressed.[122].

However, it is not a measure against the declining birthrate that the number of births of its own people continues to decrease, but a measure to make up for the labor shortage caused by the declining birthrate. At the time of 2012 (Heisei 24)Minister in charge of measures against declining birthrate(Noda Third Remodeling Cabinet)MetMasaharu NakagawaIn an interview with media companies on February 2012, 2, "The Nordic countries and the United StatesImmigrationEveryone is thinking about policies.We will consider the shape of the country with such things in mind, "he said, recognizing that it is difficult to stop the population decline simply by aiming for fertility recovery.[123].

2014/On February 2, the Cabinet Office's "Future of Choice" committee estimated that "by accepting 24 foreign immigrants each year, Japan's population of 20 million can be maintained 1 years from now." rice field[124].

In 2018, the Abe administration at that time decided by the Cabinet that the status of residence and specific skills for foreign workers, which will start in 2019, are not immigrants.[125]..There is no clear definition in the "Answer to Questions about Foreign Workers and Immigrants Submitted by Member of the House of Representatives Soichiro Okuno" to this decision that immigration cannot be defined because it is used in various contexts. rice field[126].

Prohibition of abortion

"FemaleAbortionIsn't it possible to take measures against the declining birthrate? "[127]..The number of abortions in 28 was 168,015.Nikolae CeausescuUnder the administrationルーマニアAlthough the law banned abortion in order to increase the population, many women suffered disabilities or died as a result of a secret abortion.[128]By the late 1960s, Romania's population had turned to growth, but this timeAbandoned childcareByOrphanageThere was a new problem that more children were taken over.


[How to use footnotes]

注 釈

  1. ^ Originally, what is a declining birthrate?末子It is a phrase that means.
  2. ^ For example,sperm OfChromosomal abnormalityByautism,DwarfismIncreases the likelihood of suffering from.
  3. ^ A young population (14 years old or younger).


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  125. ^ "https://www.nhk.or.jp/politics/articles/feature/9756.html”. NHK. 2021/9/11Browse.
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  127. ^ "'Countermeasures against declining birthrate are from the problem of abortion'" LDP-(I.e.General Affairs Chairman-Politics, Asahi Shimbun, February 2013, 2
  128. ^ Ceausescu's Longest-Lasting Legacy --the Cohort of '67(Archive.today, May 2012, 12)- http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/dhm_archive/index.php?display_article=vn318cohort_of67ed[Broken link]


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