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🏛 | Kumamoto Experts Meeting to Realize New Watershed Control, Proposal for Creative Reconstruction


Photo Makoto Iokibe, Chairman of the "Kumamoto Restoration and Reconstruction Experts Conference," submitted a proposal for creative reconstruction of the area affected by the heavy rain to Governor Ikuo Kabashima (right) = XNUMXth, Kumamoto City

Kumamoto Experts' Meeting proposes the realization of new basin hydraulic control for creative reconstruction

 
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As a basic idea of ​​reconstruction, he advocated the practice of the "Green New Deal," a regional promotion policy inspired by the New Deal policy promoted in the United States during the Great Depression.
 

The Kumamoto Restoration and Reconstruction Experts Conference (Chairman, Makoto Iokibe, President of the University of Hyogo) said on the XNUMXth, "Is it a heavy rain in July? → Continue reading

 Kumamoto Daily Newspaper

The Kumamoto Nichinichi Shimbun is a local newspaper in Kumamoto. Full of information about Kumamoto such as news and sports.


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New Deal Policy

New Deal Policy(New Deal)British: New Deal) Is1930 eraToPresident of the United StatesFranklin Roosevelt World DepressionA series of went to overcomeEconomic policy.

New re-sowing policy[1]Or justNew DealAlso called[2].

Overview

Until then the New Deal policyAmericaThe classic that successive administrations have taken, with limited government intervention and economic policy in the marketLiberalismIt is a shift from a typical economic policy to a policy in which the government is actively involved in the market economy.Second World WarAfter資本主義It had a great influence on the national economic policy.

"For the first time in the worldJohn Maynard KeynesIt is said that he adopted the theory ofGeneral theory of employment, interest and moneyIs 1936Published in, and the New Deal policy has begun 1933Later than.The original plan is Japan, which quickly escaped from the Great Depression.Kosei Takahashiが考案政策(Occasional rescue business) And most of them are common.

The policy name "New Deal" isMark Twain 1889Published in the novel "Connecticut Yankee of Arthur's CourtIs named after the policy implemented by the main character in[3].

History

Roosevelt declared in an election speech on the radio before he took office that "if he becomes president, he will return to pre-crisis price levels within a year."

[4].

Roosevelt in 19333/4When he took office as president, the next day, despite Sunday, all domestic banks were closed based on the "Trading with the Enemy Law", and a radio speech was given to investigate the management situation of all banks within a week to ensure the safety of deposits. Promising to guarantee, the bank run was heading toward convergence.Roosevelt was bold immediately after becoming president in 1monetary easingThe credit crunch has stopped because of the[5].

Roosevelt immediately after the next 100 daysGrass-Steagal methodEnacted and fulfilled this promise (Federal Deposit Insurance CorporationWith the establishment ofSilver certificate separation[6]).

MoreCongressTo discuss new policies for economic recovery and job security in rapid succession, and to enact these in the first 100 days.[7].

さ ら に 1935ToSecond New DealAs a result, we made a shift from allowance benefits and livelihood protection to the unemployed to employment of the unemployed, and WPA (Public Works Promotion Bureau) EstablishedUnemployedMass employment and public facilities construction and public works projects throughout the United States.

ExternallyProtection tradeからFree tradeThe power to change tariff rates and conclude reciprocal tariffs with foreign countries was approved by the parliament.As an unusual project, the Works Progress Administration will implement it.Logarithmic tableProject (Mathematical Tables Project), And an attempt was made to improve the accuracy of the logarithmic table in the same project.This contributed to improving the accuracy of ballistic calculation and approximate calculation, and improved the accuracy of landing hits of the U.S. military during World War II.Manhattan planInImplosion lens(ZND theory) Was affected.

Pros and cons of policy

With these policies, the economy started to recover after 1933, starting in 1934.[8][9],Some policies, such as NIRA and AAA, have been unconstitutionalized by the Supreme Court to "inhibit fair competition."[10]..In addition, due to active financeInflationIn response to trends and rising government debtFiscal policy-Financial PolicyAs a result of the tightening of the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate temporarily rose again in 1937-1938.[11]. afterwards,Second World WarDue to the increase in munitions expenditure, which is the largest increase rate in the history of the United States, due to participation in the warUnited States economyAnd employment has recovered significantly from the depression and has expanded significantly.

After all, nominal GDP exceeded the 1929 value in 1941.[8], Real GDP exceeded 1929 value in 1936[9], The unemployment rate fell below the 1929 value in 1943.[12][13].

In the United States after the New Deal, federal spending and GDP ratios have increased[14], The federal government will have great authority to move public works and employment policies in the United States, and World War II will accelerate the strengthening and enormous power of the federal government, and the United States社会 保障Disseminated the policy.

Takeshi Nakano"President Roosevelt implements the'New Deal',deflationPolicy for escapeRegimeMade a big change.As a result, people react to the regime shiftInflationThe US economy has escaped from the depression as it began to act in anticipation of the crisis. "[15].

Milton Friedman"The period 1929-1933 and 1933-1941 should be considered separately. It was the bank holidays, the withdrawal from the gold standard, the gold and silver purchase plans, etc. that ended the Great Depression rather than the Great Depression. There is no doubt that it was a series of monetary policies. It was World War II and military spending that ended the Great Depression. "[16].

Hirofumi Uzawa"In the end, we entered World War II before we knew what the results and outcomes of the New Deal policy were."[17]..In addition, Uzawa said, "Friedman played a central role in the movement to deny all of the New Deal policy.Ronald ReaganDuring the administration, the New Deal policy was completely denied. "[18].

EconomistKoichi Yano"The New Deal was thought to have had a great effect on fiscal policy, but in subsequent research, it was a policy package that combined monetary and fiscal policy (Policy mix) Was effective. ””[19]..Yano said, "The US government raised taxes in 1937, and the Fed also tightened its finances, causing the economy to slump in 1938 and re-enter the recession. This is a historical lesson called" Failure in 1937. " Is. "[19].

EconomistRobert Lucas"By improving deposit insurance in 1934 and separating banks and securities under the Glass-Steagall Act, a financial regulation system was in place to prevent banks from taking excessive risks," he said. Prevented the recurrence of the Great Crisis for decades. "[20].

Financial Policy

EconomistChristina Romer"Most of the recovery in GDP during the Great Depression was brought about by monetary easing," published a paper.[21]. Ben BernankeSaid that the recovery from the Great Depression and the exit from deflation were contributed by the feasibility of monetary easing due to the suspension of the gold standard.[21].

Fiscal policy

EconomistHideomi Tanaka,Seiji Adachi"President Roosevelt's New Deal policy says that the scale of fiscal spending is around 5% of GDP.HooverIt hasn't changed much from the time of the president. "[22].

Christina Romer concludes from economic history studies that the New Deal's fiscal policy was ineffective.[23]..Rohmer stated in 1930 that an important lesson from the 1930s is that small fiscal stimuli have only small effects (One crucial lesson from the 2009s is that a small fiscal expansion has only small effects.)[24].. In 2013, "In my opinion, what we can learn from the Great Depression is that this theory [fiscal policy works if you try it] is confirmed by empirical grounds. When used in the 1930s. Fiscal policy is actually accelerating the recovery. The main problem is that fiscal policy has not been used much. "[25].

Paul Krugman"Some economists never forgot about the Great Depression and its implications. One of them is Christina Romer. Four years after the crisis began (4), good research on fiscal policy (most of which) Is on the rise (by young economists). Such studies generally support that fiscal stimulus is effective and suggest that large-scale fiscal stimulus should be provided.[26]"Especially when I read that I, Stiglitz, and Christina Romer argue that spending cuts in the face of a recession only make it worse, and that temporary spending increases are beneficial to recovery." I hope you don't think "this is their personal view", as Romer said in his recent speech on research on fiscal policy.

Evidence that fiscal policy is important is stronger than ever--fiscal stimulus helps the economy increase jobs, and trying to reduce its budget deficit will slow growth, at least in the short term. ..Yet, this evidence does not seem to be passed on to the legislative process.

We have to change that. "[27].

Robert Lucas criticized Romer's analysis as "a retrofit justification for policies that had already been decided for other reasons."[28].

Regarding Robert Lucas's view, Paul Krugman said, "The basis was the principle of'Ricardian equivalence', and by that claim, I do not know or forget the actual mechanism of that principle in the first place. I revealed that I had done it. "[29].

Naoki Komuro"Many of the New Deal policies were so revolutionary that they were subsequently unconstitutionalized by the Federal Supreme Court. President Roosevelt had no choice but to become a pro-Roosevelt lawyer. , Many had to take the tactic of appointing a Supreme Court judge and finally making a constitutional decision. In ordinary people's conversations, if you say "he is a new dealer", in prewar Japan, " He was a red man. " "Even if we take a policy to increase capital investment such as TVA (Tennessee Valley Authority), if we are opposed to the classical school (which was the overwhelming majority in the United States at that time), we will immediately stagger. If the government spending is drastically increased, the public finances will go bankrupt. "[30].

Hirofumi Uzawa said, "Ancien Régime desperately resists TVA in particular, and has filed numerous proceedings that" it is unconstitutional for the government to do the work that the private sector should do, "and the Federal Supreme Court also issued an unconstitutional judgment.As a result, in 1943, TVA changed its organization drastically and became a system in charge of regional development with the funds of the local government, and could barely maintain its appearance as social common capital. Market fundamentalists repeatedly criticized the TVA and the Banking Act and attempted to dismantle them. "[31].

Relationship with Keynes

Roosevelt himself was a fiscal balancer and was allegedly negative about deficit finance.[32]..Roosevelt is said to have adopted the fiscal policy proposed by Keynes.[33], Roosevelt himself denies it[32]..Roosevelt met Keynes only once in 1934, but said, "I couldn't understand it because of the statistics."[32]..Roosevelt, who had a direct dialogue with Keynes, is said to have cut off the story of Keynes's economic stimulus policy by issuing deficit-financing bonds as "a tremendous horror story."[34]..The New Deal policy has been implemented since 1933, and Keynes's "General theoryWas published in 1936[32].

Japan

One of the common senses of Japanese people after the war is that the Great Depression was caused by President Roosevelt.Keynesian typeThere is something that has recovered due to the fiscal policy of[35].

Hidetomi Tanaka said, "The prototype of today's understanding of Keynesian policy (the scenario of escape from the Great Depression by the New Deal policy and the de facto neglect of monetary policy) isShigeto TsuruWas disseminated by. "[36].

Economist Shigeto Tsuru said, "The fact that the two concepts of" national interest "," national defense "and" total employment, "were satisfied at the same time.Pacific WarIt was a good basis for the militant attitude leading up to the start. The'New Deal'policy thus led to the war. "[37]..Hidetomi Tanaka points out that "the origin of the claims that are still scattered today that the government's Keynesian fiscal policy led to war and that the war resolved the Great Depression" is due to Toru.[37].

footnote

  1. ^ "New Deal" means that parents redistribute cards in cards and other games, and that the government redistributes national wealth to the entire nation through new economic policies.
  2. ^ "History of Junior High School Society" (Educational publicationCo., Ltd.Published on January 10, 1998/1.Ministry of EducationCertifiedtextbook..On p.243 of junior high school social studies), it is stated that "this policy is called the New Deal" and "New Social History" (Tokyo BooksLtd.Ministry of educationCertifiedtextbook..For junior high school social studies.(Published on February 16, 2004) p.2 states, "In the United States, the policy was changed from the free economy up to that point, and under President Roosevelt, it was called the New Deal (new deal) from 10. "I took a policy.", "Detailed World History B" (Co., Ltd.)Yamakawa Publishing.Ministry of educationCertifiedtextbook..For high school geography and history department. (Published March 2004, 16) p.3 states that "these series of policies are called the New Deal."In addition, "History of Social Studies Junior High School Students" (Co., Ltd.Imperial Shoin.Ministry of educationCertifiedtextbook..For junior high school social studies.(Published January 20, 2008) p.1 describes the "New Deal Policy".
  3. ^ "Fun-read English-American fantasy literature" page 61
  4. ^ Edited by Hideomi Tanaka, "Can the Japanese Economy Revive?" Fujiwara Shoten, 2013, pp. 119-120.
  5. ^ Nobuo Ikeda, Courage to Give Up Hope-Economics of Stagnation and Growth, Diamond, 2009, p. 141.
  6. ^ Susan E. Kennedy, The Banking Crisis of 1933 (1973)
  7. ^ Since then, the new president's "what to do in the first 100 days" has become the most important promise in the presidential election. "Honeymoon periodThe "= 100-day rule" is derived from this.
  8. ^ a b US Department of Commers> Bureau of Economic Analysis> National Economic Accounts> Interactive Table> Table Selection> Table 1.1.5. Gross Domestic Product
  9. ^ a b US Department of Commers> Bureau of Economic Analysis> National Economic Accounts> Interactive Table> Table Selection> Table 1.1.6. Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars
  10. ^ Tetsuji Kawamura "Modern American Economy" Yuhikaku
  11. ^ The Economist: Lessons from the 1930s: Pitfalls in the Way
  12. ^ US Department of Labor> Bureau of Labor Statistics> Publications> Compensation and Working Conditions> Compensation from before World War I through the Great Depression
  13. ^ US Department of Labor> Bureau of Labor Statistics> Subject Areas> Unemployment> National Unemployment Rate (from the Current Population Survey)> Labor Force Statistics including the National Unemployment Rate> Tables> Annual Average Data> Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population, 1940s to date[Broken link]
  14. ^ US Whitehouse> Office of Management and Budget> The Budget> Historical Tables> Fiscal Year 2012 Archived August 2011, 7, at the Wayback Machine.
  15. ^ Takeshi Nakano "Regime change-The idea of ​​reversal to break through the depression” NHK Publishing <NHK Publishing New Book>, 2012, 21 pages.
  16. ^ R. E.Parker, "How did the 11 economists who saw the Great Depression live?" Translated by Shigeyoshi Miyagawa, Chuokeizai-sha, 2005, pp. 60-61.
  17. ^ Hirofumi Uzawa and Katsuto Uchihashi, "The Beginning Future Is New Economics Possible?" Iwanami Shoten, 2009, p. 5.
  18. ^ Hirofumi Uzawa and Katsuto Uchihashi, "The Beginning Future Is New Economics Possible?" Iwanami Shoten, 2009, pp. 24-25.
  19. ^ a b Why are reflationists opposed to the consumption tax hike? / Koichi Yano / Applied StatisticsSYNODOS-Synodos-August 2014, 12
  20. ^ Ninth "Is Economics Useful (Part XNUMX)-Lucas's Insight"Canon Global Strategy Research Institute (CIGS) October 2009, 10
  21. ^ a b Edited by Hideomi Tanaka, "Can the Japanese Economy Revive?" Fujiwara Shoten, 2013, p. 121.
  22. ^ Tanaka Hideomi, Seiji Adachi, "Heisei University Stagnation and Showa Depression-Introduction to Practical Economics", NHK Publishing <NHK Books>, 2003, p. 66.
  23. ^ Nobuo Ikeda, Courage to Give Up Hope-Economics of Stagnation and Growth, Diamond, 2009, p. 145.
  24. ^ "Lessons from the Great Depression for Economic Recovery in 2009" Christina D. Romer March 9, 2009
  25. ^ "Lessons from the Great Depression for Policy Today" Christina D. Romer March 11, 2013
  26. ^ Paul Krugman, "End the Depression Quickly," Hayakawa Publishing, 2012, pp. 145-146.
  27. ^ Paul Krugman, "End the Depression Quickly," Hayakawa Publishing, 2012, pp. 302-303.
  28. ^ Paul Krugman, "Quickly End the Depression," Hayakawa Publishing, 2012, p. 145.
  29. ^ Paul Krugman, "Quickly End the Depression," Hayakawa Publishing, 2012, p. 144.
  30. ^ Naoki Komuro, "Economic Principles for the People <1 Bubble Great Resurrection>", Kappa Business, 1993, p. 47.
  31. ^ Hirofumi Uzawa and Katsuto Uchihashi, "The Beginning Future Is New Economics Possible?" Iwanami Shoten, 2009, p. 5.
  32. ^ a b c d Nobuo Ikeda, Courage to Give Up Hope-Economics of Stagnation and Growth, Diamond, 2009, p. 143.
  33. ^ Nobuo Ikeda, Courage to Give Up Hope-Economics of Stagnation and Growth, Diamond, 2009, p. 140.
  34. ^ Tetsuo Taka "Economic Thought in Life-Introduction to Evolutionary Economics-" Chishin Publishing Institute, First Edition, 2007, p. 81.
  35. ^ Hideomi Tanaka, "Learning Economic Policy in History," SoftBank Creative <SoftBank Shinsho>, 2006, page 102.
  36. ^ Hideomi Tanaka, "Learning Economic Policy in History," SoftBank Creative <SoftBank Shinsho>, 2006, page 109.
  37. ^ a b Hideomi Tanaka, "Learning Economic Policy in History," SoftBank Creative <SoftBank Shinsho>, 2006, page 108.

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During the Great Depression


 

 

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